University Place

Update on the Beef Industry

[Otto Weigand, Agricultural Agent, University of Wisconsin-Extension]

Okay, our first speaker this morning is Brenda – Dr. Brenda Boetel, from U.W.- River Falls, and she’s gonna be talking about the – the livestock outlook – markets and that kind of thing for – for beef producers. So, with that, I’ll put Brenda on.

[Brenda Boetel, Extension Economist, University of Wisconsin-River Falls]

Good Morning. So, we’re gonna talk about the livestock situation and outlook as it presents for currently where we’re at right now and then maybe what’s gonna happen for the rest of the year.

The way in which I do this, I kind of talk about things first, of what’s the demand side for it? I’ll talk a little bit about some of the input aspects of it, and then I’ll talk about the supply side of the beef productions.

Key issues that we’re seeing for 2016 –

[slide titled, Key Issues for 2016 and beyond, followed by the following bulleted list – Grain prices – how long will low prices stick around, Protein demand – economy, consumers, Exports – World economy, U.S. dollar, Species supply – poultry supplies, hog supplies, beef supplies (profits + grass + a long generational interval)]

– how long are these low input prices or grain prices gonna stick around is one of the things we’re gonna talk about. Otherwise, we’re also gonna talk about protein demand, what’s happening in the U.S. economy, whats happening with U.S. consumers, what’s happening with then international demand, so exports for our meat products. And then we’ll talk about the species supplies –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– regarding poultry, hog, and beef supplies, okay?

So, just to give you some little bit of idea about what’s happening right now in the markets, and why some of these things are going before we talk about where prices are gonna go.

So first off, we have – is right now we have a large corn supply –

[slide titled, Large Corn Supply, featuring a bar graph of the total U.S. Corn Supply and Price with the crop year on the x-axis, the number of bushels in billions on the left-hand y-axis and the price per bushel on the right-hand y-axis and showing an increasing supply of bushels of corn and a year-over-year decrease in price per bushel as a red line going through the bar graph]

– in the United States. So, there’s a total corn supply right now of about 15.9 billion bushels. When we think about how much weve carried over versus how much we have, so this is a pretty significant – this is our highest amount of supply that we have in corn. And as you can see right here if you look at the graph, the blue charts is basically what our corn supply is and the red line that’s going through that then basically is the corn price.

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

As the – as the supply of corn’s gone up, basically, what’s happening is the typical scenario is the price of the corn’s gone down. This is good if you’re feeding corn.

[return to the Large Corn Supply slide with the bar graph]

You know, it costs you less to be able to feed that input, but basically the question is, “How long is it gonna stick around?”

So, what we’re looking at is then basically what’s gonna happen with corn price. For this year, as we all know right now with the corn price– we’re in planting season, it’s a – Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois. We’re actually ahead for planting season for corn, but other states like Indiana are actually behind.

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

So, from general, where we’re probably gonna be for the nation is we’re probably gonna be right on track as far as for planting for corn for this year. That typically means – that’s a good thing, because on the one hand for prices, is if we get a really late planting, then prices tend to go up, and if it’s really early, prices tend to go down. So, we see that – that one aspect of it.

The other thing that we’re – right now, is this is, for corn market, if we’re looking at it for this – this year, it’s pretty much a weather market that we’re experiencing right now. As we are going into the effects of La Nina, right now, the question becomes is, “What’s gonna happen with the drought for 20 – is there gonna be a drought in 2016?” Alright?

Apart from – I’m not a weather forecaster, so all I’m gonna do is sit down and say, “Okay, let’s talk about what – what we’re seeing.” You know, the reality is we’ll probably have some type of La Nina effect. The question becomes is to “When is that going to have an impact on grain production?” So, will we end up having a drought? More than – more than likely, we will. The question is “Will it impact us this year?” Depending on who you look at, where you’re looking at it from this case, I believe that more than likely if we have one, we’re not gonna see a national big impact on it for this particular year, for 2016 production.

What that means is there might be some areas in the United States that have a greater impact, but more than likely that’s probably not gonna be the 2012 levels where we saw a national drought aspect relative, you know, so will we see those spike in prices that we saw in 2012? I am saying, No, because I don’t think that there’s gonna be that drought. So, now this is – this is where I say, this is really a weather market that you’re looking at. The question becomes, you know, if we start seeing that, yes, you know, will that have an impact? The La Nina impact right now where we look at it is is – most – most of them are saying it’s probably gonna be hitting more in the late August, September, again, which is probably a little later than what we would experience for it having an impact on corn, alright?

So, when we look at this, it’s probably not gonna have too much of an impact – at least my opinion – this year. Next year’s a different story, if we’re talking about for 2017. But that’s – thats jumping ahead of where we’re going.

So, for 2016, I don’t think there’s gonna be a huge impact in corn prices, based off of drought, so what that means is if we look at the amount of corn that’s been planted, if we look at and we have even just normal production years, we will be seeing corn prices in that low – high $2.00 to low $3.00 range by harvest price. If we see that, alright?

So again, there’s a lot of impacts here, whether or not we get – you know, whether or not we actually get the yield that we typically – trendline yields that we would experience for corn. And then also, too, the question is, you know, “Will Indiana and some of these other states that are lagging behind right now, will they be able to get back and get into they have all of their corn planted?” If we say that’s the case, then that’s where those prices aren’t gonna be there. We won’t be experiencing high corn prices in – if that’s the scenario, for probably another two years.

So, unless – 2017, unless there’s some massive nationwide drought, you know, and that’s a little further out than I would have – but if, even if it’s a regionalized drought, you’re still gonna have enough corn that we won’t see those huge price spikes until then.

Alright.

When we look at beans, basically, –

[slide titled, Ending stocks are lowered significantly, featuring a graph of weekly Central Illinois Soybean Prices, with months on the x-axis and price per bushel on the x-axis and showing three lines one for the year 2015, one for the year 2016 and one for the average from 2010 to 2014 and showing the price for soybeans well below the average from the years 2010 to 2014, but prices up for the year 2016]

– what are we seeing right now? We’re seeing basically an increase in bean prices in a regional aspect again. A lot of this has to do with South America, and a lot of it has to do with an increased use of beans. So, we’re seeing the usage of beans went up a little bit more than what they were expecting in that case. What we’re seeing also is an expectation that theres not gonna be as many beans planted as what they were originally anticipating, plus then we sit down and we look at South America, and we see that the Brazilian production has – they’ve – theyve tapered it back from what they were expecting a little bit. It’s still very good production, but it’s tapered back from a little bit and Argentina’s having some issues. So, when we couple all of those things together, that’s where we saw that spike in prices here, primarily right after the last U.S.D.A. report, which was in May – last Tuesday. So, those are the big things –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– that have been impacting that soybean price.

Again, this is the case, where, though, what we saw was – we saw – the U.S.D.A. came through, and significantly decreased, basically, the carryover of beans from one marketing year to the next. That had an impact – short term impact on the markets and it should have an impact on the markets right there. However, the question remains is that, we still have a lot of beans in the world, alright? So, that’s gonna be that short-term impact. It doesn’t mean we’re gonna start seeing beans in that $10 range again. It just means that we’re gonna have the shorter impact as we adjust to some of the ideas that there’s a little bit more bean usage out there, and maybe we don’t have quite as much carry over, but again, we had so much carry over for beans, that we had so much cushion, and even still, with this increase in this, we still have a large cushion for beans. So, even if there is significant decline in production, we have enough beans to be able to carry us over. There’s not gonna be a huge spike in the prices there.

Alright.

So, that’s the idea of it for the –

[slide titled, Protein Demand, asking the question can we make this last?]

– inputs.

[new slide titled, G.D.P. is growing, albeit slower, featuring a bar graph of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of the U.S. with the real dollar change from the previous year with the years 2001 to 2016 on the x-axis and the percent change on the y-axis and showing G.D.P slightly up for 2016]

When we look at, now – when we look at beef and when we look at protein demand, we kind of have to also talk about basically whats happening with the economy, alright? So, in the United States, we look at G.D.P. So, we kind of want to sit down and we say – say, “Where’s it going?” The G.D.P. is growing, albeit it’s growing a little slower than what it has been, we are still growing, basically, in the United States, so the blue bars are basically where our quarterly growth has been for the United States and as you can see, we – we still are growing, we’re still blue, so that’s a good thing, alright?

[new slide titled, Unemployment rate is at 5 percent, and featuring a graph of the U.S. Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly with the years 2007 to 2016 on the x-axis and the percent on the y-axis and showing the unemployment rate decreasing from 2010 to 2016. The slide also notes that the unemployment rate has been stable since August 2015 and in February 2016 it was lowest since 2010]

Unemployment rate is at 5%. It’s been stable, basically, since 2015. It’s actually up very, very slightly since February, but when we look at it in general terms, its pretty stable and it’s the lowest, really, we’ve been in that time since 2008.

[new slide titled, 2015 improved +2.7%, featuring a graph of Per Capita Disposable Personal Income, Quarterly with the years 2007 to 2016 on the x-axis and the number in dollars on the y-axis. The graph has two lines, one for the current dollar and one for the 2009 dollar with both showing an increase in disposable income]

Personal income – when we look at our per capita disposable personal income, 2015, we saw improvements in that, relative to 2014 of 2.4%.

Alright?

[new slide titled, Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence, Monthly, featuring a graph with the years 1978 to 2015 on the x-axis and the Index on the y-axis and showing a slight uptick in consumer confidence in 2015]

Domestic consumer confidence, basically, is up again, so people are sitting there and saying and believing that the economy – they think that the economy is going well and is going to continue to grow.

Alright.

[new slide titled, R.P.I. at 100.7 in March – expectations stood at 101.2 (down slightly), featuring a graph of Restaurant Performance Index with the years 2003 to 2016 on the x-axis and the index score on the y-axis and showing a slight decrease for 2016]

Now, where does this all play into? It all plays, basically, into consumers, because meat is expensive, and as we’re looking here and talking about it, primarily from the aspect of beef, beef is the most expensive protein that we have. Alright, so as a consumer, if I don’t believe that I’m going to have disposable income, or if I’m concerned about my job next year, or next month, or I’m concerned about –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– the economy, and I want to start saving money, that disposable income – if that disposable income starts to decrease, I’m gonna start saying “I need to save money.” What’s one of the fastest ways in which the U. S. consumer saves money? Is we don’t go out to eat as often. We consume a lot of food. The average consumer in the United States spends a lot of their money on going out to eat. A lot of their food budget is going out to eat, not just eating it at home. That has a bigger impact for beef than any of the other proteins, primarily because as we consume beef – we consume a lot of hamburger, but we consume a lot of hamburger at home, and we consume a lot in the restaurants, too, but majority – and a big percentage of where those high-valued steaks and middle meats are consumed is in restaurants, alright? If people consume – and if they drop and stop going out to eat because of their concern about the economy, that has a bigger impact on beef, because now suddenly, we’re going to not have those high-priced meat products being consumed as often, alright?

That plays into this, because then, what we’ll also see is restaurants will sit down and they will sit down and they’ll say “Okay, well, wait a minute, I’m gonna have a menu change, and I’m not going to have as – I’m going to replace this really, really high-priced steak, with either a lower-valued steak or potentially either pork or poultry,” right? So, it has an impact on beef primarily. It has an impact on everything, all proteins, but primarily on beef because of the rates of – the value of the consumption that is used in restaurants.

What all that plays into is what we look at with this – this is the R.P.I. –

[return to the previous R.P.I. slide and graph]

– this is our Restaurant Performance Index. And it’s anything above 100 basically is saying that restaurants are in that expansion phase. So, we are basically expanding in it. Anything below 100 is saying that people aren’t going out to eat as often in restaurants; they’re in a contraction phase. We are at 100.7. Expectations for it, we’re down – were at about 101.2. They’re down slightly. So, the expectations are that we’re not quite as high as what we were thinking as far as for restaurants. It’s not as good as what we were thinking, but we’re still in the expansion phase. This is good, because if you look back in December, we were below, alright? So, we were below, basically, that, and that was a big cause for concern as far as for – as far as for beef.

One other aspect about it is when we see menu changes. Remember as I talked about – we sit there and – and say “Okay, there’s different changes.” When certain restaurants make particular changes to their menu, to say that we’re going to either have only choice beef or things like that, we can see that and recently we have seen that impact in the wholesale beef prices basically in the United States in the last couple of weeks due to a restaurant that came through and said “We’re going to have only choice beef.” Alright, so then how long will that last? Probably not – it’s gonna – it helps for a while.

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

It helps create a little bit of an impact there for those couple of weeks, and then but basically, we can see that in that whole – in that industry and in those prices.

What’s all this mean is that when we look at it as far as for –

[slide titled, The evidence of strong demand is prices, featuring a graph of Retail Meat and Poultry Price Annually with the years 1990 to 2016 on the x-axis and cents per pound on the y-axis and four lines – one each for beef, pork, broilers, and turkey, and showing an increase in beef price per pound while the price per pound of the others heading lower]

– ultimately, we want to make sure we continue to have prices. So, when we look at strong demand, when we’re looking at it for – for meats and for that and for beef, we look at prices. And the evidence of that strong demand is in prices, okay? So, when we look at this across the board, if you look at the last couple of years for beef, still, pay attention to – the red line is basically the beef price – the dotted blue line, the second line from the top, is the pork price, and then the two bottom lines are my broilers and turkey prices. So, if you look, both pork and – and poultry prices went down, in relative – in real prices in 2015, whereas beef price continued to go up, alright?

Now, that indicates to me that still, even though, yes, we had less production –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– but because those prices are going up, we do still have a strong demand, alright? Especially when you consider the differences and look at the difference between beef and the pork price, alright? If you go back, even back to about 2006, and if you went back – certainly back to 2000 – see, look at the difference between the pork and the beef price relative to where we’re at now.

That’s an impact.

That’s where I say we’re a beef nation. We like beef, alright? This is – this is where we sit down and say, though, “Okay, we still like beef. We can see that because we’re willing still to have that beef price go up, even though these other proteins are going down.” Alright, so we still have a lot of strong demand. The biggest concern, though, is if we start to see the economy slide, or if we start to see some other impacts, then, basically in unemployment and things like that, it impacts beef prices the most, and that’s where we’ll see that difference between those go down.

As I said this recently –

[slide titled, Choice Cutout Value, featuring a graph with the months of the year 2015 to 2016 on the x-axis and the price on the y-axis with lines for the years 2015 and 2016 and one for the average in the years 2010 to 2014 and showing prices slightly above average but not as high as 2015. On the bottom of the graph is a line with choice boxed beef price for the last week – $213, the previous week – $205.72, and the last year – $256.61]

– when we look at our choice cutout value, then, basically, the blue line on the bottom is my average price from 2010 to 2014. The red line is basically the choice cutout price for 2015 and then the green is where we’re at for 2016. We’re not as high as where we were at in 2015, which was record high prices for beef. However, we’re still above, basically, the average of the five years previous to that. We still have high beef prices and that, and as I said, typically we get the seasonality aspect of it that goes through. Right now, as we’re gearing up for Memorial Day, so some of those retailers and restaurants were trying to source meat for that, so we saw a little blip in the prices there. What we saw, if you look at the wholesale beef prices last year at the end of 2015, if you remember what happened, what happened with cattle prices and beef prices in that is that we ended up with a large percentage of really heavy cattle in 2015. That ends up having an impact, basically, throughout the entire system, alright?

So, we saw a little bit of that – that’s where some of that decline came in there.

[new slide titled, Beef Trade, featuring a bulleted list of Imports and Exports and showing imports were down 9.5% in the U.S., down 18% in Australia, down 4.2% in New Zealand, up 6.3 percent in Canada, and up 12.3 percent in Mexico, while U.S. export were up 1.5%, up 5.8% in Japan, down 11.3% in Mexico, and down 8.6 percent in Canada. Additionally, at the bottom of the slide is a small bar graph of U.S. Beef/Veal Exports with the years 1992 to 2016 on the x-axis and billions of pound of carcass weight on the y-axis and showing that slight uptick in U.S. exports]

From the international side of our demand for it, where are we looking at for beef trade. When we’re looking at – these numbers are basically where from 2016, for the first quarter of 2016, relative to the first quarter of 2015, our imports are down about 9.5 % while our exports are up about 1.5 %. And then you can look the specific countries where we typically import and/or export to, alright?

So, exports are up about 1.5 %. That’s a good thing.

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

If we think about, basically, beef exports about 9.5 to 9.6% of their annual production each year is what our exports are in the United States for beef, alright? So, we’re typically always in that range. We’re going to export a little bit more this year. However, also note that our production for beef will be up this year as well. So, even though we’re exporting more on a – a quantity value, our production is up so actually in relative terms, our production as a percentage – I mean, our exports as a percentage of our production is going to be down very, very slightly this year, alright?

When we look at that as far as terms of value to – if you look at the value of this, we’re down about 18% from those quarters. Some of that has to do with that decline in basic – that’s a lot to do with that decline basically in prices. So overall, the beef trade’s holding up well. That’s a good thing, because if we lose that, that’s significant for us. Where this plays into a lot is when we look at the value of the dollar. Value of the dollar is high right now. What we’re seeing with the value of the dollar, when the value of the dollar is high, this has an impact on basically all of our imports and exports. If the value of the dollar is high, we tend to lose exports in the United States. Our exports go, because basically it means that U.S. products are now suddenly more expensive for other countries to buy, alright? So, holding everything else the same, then basically, the U.S. products just had an increase in price, alright? So, that has an impact if the value of the dollar is high. It has an impact on corn exports. It has an impact on soybean exports, on beef and on pork and on poultry. All these different products. Yes, it’s good from us if we’re importing products, because those become less expensive but from an ag aspect, we tend to export a lot. Alright, so then that plays into that, and that has an impact, so it’s good that the value in our beef exports are still holding up this much, especially when we consider the strength of the dollar that we have right now. Alright?

Where are we going? We still have strong demand –

[slide titled, Demand Concerns, featuring the following bulleted list – there is strong demand, prices are high relative to other proteins, the dollar is strong (current index = 95.32, 52 week high of 100.25 and low of 93.31), Trans Pacific Partnership – increased competition from Australia to Japan, increased competition from E.U. to Mexico]

– especially when we consider all these other things. The question we have as far as for it, is that we have high prices relative to the other proteins. And how long will consumers continue to be willing to pay those additional prices? As I said, we also have a strong dollar. Right now, the current index is at 95.32. The 52-week high has been about 100.25, and the low’s been about 93.31. So we’re – were not at the low, were – we’re not at the high. We – you know, we’ve got concerns, because basically the Fed came through and they came – they implied, basically, that they were a little more receptive to potentially increasing interest rates in June. More – so they’re more receptive to increasing those then what most people were thinking. We’ll have to wait until June to see whether or not they do that. But right now, that’s where we’re sitting here and seeing basically by simply saying that they’re receptive to the idea of that, we saw an increase and the value of the dollar go up, alright? And so, if you remember last week, we saw an increase and the value of the dollar go up –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– what happened, you guys? Did you pay attention to corn prices? What’d they do, the day that they announced that? Corn prices went down, and that has a lot to do with basically that trade prices, alright? So, that’s one thing we definitely want to make sure we’re paying attention to. And then we also have to be looking at basically also policy aspects of what’s gonna happen with some of those trades.

When we look at them, basically, supply-side. So, we gotta talk about a –

[slide titled, Expansion for 2016, featuring two small bar graphs, one titled RTC Broiler Production and one titled RTC Turkey Production, both have quarterly months of 2015 to 2017 (projected) on the x-axis (4 bars including a 2000-2014 average) and billions of pounds on the y-axis. The slide also has the following bulleted list – poultry production increased 4%, exports were down 14%, domestic supply increased 6%, cold storage increased 14%, egg sets show no year-over-year gains in 2016, and the increase in 2015 due to heavier weight]

– couple different things regarding supply-side, basically, because not only are we looking at – as a consumer, remember, as I go to the grocery store – so, you know, I’m a – Im a mom; I got three kids, and I sit down, and I go to the grocery store and I’m gonna sit down and decide I need some proteins. Right? So, yes, I like my hamburger, but there’s times when, you know, if the price gets too high, do I sit down and do I make substitutions and do some other products? So, I sit down and say “Okay, well, we have to be able to look and see what’s happening with poultry supplies, because that affects poultry prices, and then hog supply and then beef supply.

So, what’s happening in these other industries? Poultry production, basically, when we look at it, in ’15 we saw an increase. We’ll see an increase basically again in ’16. We’re seeing expansion for 2016 when we compare both broilers and turkeys there. Exports, we’re down, basically, in 2015. A lot of that had to do with avian influenza. We have not yet regained. They’re up a little bit for 2016, but they’re still not back to where they were at prior to that impact.

So, the exports are not – when we look at our annual – again, exports as a percentage of our production – they’re not at the level that they were. What that means is, when we’re not exporting it, where does that go? If we have more production –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– and we’re not exporting it, it’s here domestically and we put those on the shelves here, which drives those prices down, alright? So, when we look at this – we can look at this and we can go and say, “We have a domestic supply, basically, of increase of about 6%”, alright? So, in that case, and so that means that we have more, basically, poultry to be able to consume in the United States.

When we look at some of these others, we’ll see very slight expansion in 2016, stable to very slight expansion there, but again, if we have that slight expansion, and we don’t have that increase, that means again, there’s still more poultry.

When we look at the pork production-

[slide titled Commercial Pork Production featuring two small graphs – the first a bar graph of Commercial Pork Production Quarterly, with the years 2015 to 2017 (projected) along with the 2010 to 2014 average on the x-axis and the billions of pounds on the y-axis showing increase pork production year-over-year. The second graph is Production vs. Breeding Hog Inventory featuring the years 1991 to 2016 on the x-axis and the billions of pounds on the y-axis with two lines – one for inventory and the other for production showing breeding slightly down with production up. Additionally, there is the following bulleted list – a 7% increase in pork production in 2015, pork export down 4.5% in 2015, cold storage up 13.3%, PPL are record large, breeding herd is up 1%, and slaughter up 1% in 2016%]

– in 2015, relative to 2014 – I realize some of this is a little – but we saw 7% increase in production in 2015 over 2014. We will see, basically, again, an increase in production in 2016; we are seeing that. It won’t be at that 7%. We’re probably about that 3% to 4% increase in that production.

Now, in ’15 we saw pork exports that were down 4.5% in 2015, relative to 2014. Again, we’ve seen a little bit of a boost in – in the pork exports, but again, where does that play into is that we’ve seen that increase in production. Pork is much more dependent on exports than beef is. So, remember I said we produce – we export about 9 – a little over 9% of our production of beef? We export over 20% of our production of pork.

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

So, when we have impacts and the dollar gets stronger, or impacts of other economies, that has a bigger impact in pork than it does in the others – than the other products. So, when we look at this, where we’re at is, again, pork production, where exports are strong but we’re not producing – they’re slightly down as a percentage of our actual production because the production has gone up at a faster rate than what the exports have, alright?

So, what’s all this mean is that, again, we have a lot of poultry and we have a lot of pork in – in the United States right now, and that’s gonna be on the retail stores; it’s gonna be in restaurants, and those are the things that they feature, again because prices are lower, especially – so this is really concerning, ’cause especially if we see a downturn in the economy, then they’re really gonna be featured. Right now, we can feature beef, because people are willing to pay for it, because they feel secure, alright?

Cattle numbers –

[slide titled, Cattle numbers are low across the board although growing, featuring three line graphs – the first January Total Cattle Inventory, the second January Cow Inventory, and the third Calf Crop. All three have the years on the x-axis (1956 to 2016, 1989 to 2016, and 1958 to 2016 respectively) and they all have million head on the y-axis and show a slight uptick year-over-year for 2016]

– basically, when we look at the inventory of cattle in the United States, the cattle numbers are low across the board, but they are growing. Again, these are January numbers. We have a U.S.D.A. report that comes out twice a year – once in January, once in July – that basically comes through, and in 2016 we saw that basically the actual number of total cattle inventories in the United States was up about 3.2%, relative to what it was in 2015.

Cow inventory, if we look at that, it’s up about 3.5% for beef cows, and it’s up about 0.1% for dairy cows, alright? So, that’s kind of where we’re sitting as far as for the cow inventory, and then we look at the calf crop for – it’s up about 2.3%. So, all this tells me that, yes, we are growing. You know –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– barring any weather catastrophes, barring anything like that. As long as we have more cows and we have a greater calf crop, we’re gonna eventually grow this herd, alright? So, until we start doing some of this – so, right now, that’s a good thing. What that means then is –

[slide titled, January 1 Feeder Cattle Supplies, featuring a bar graph with the years 1986 to 2016 on the x-axis and millions of head on the y-axis and showing an overall decline since the late 1980s but an increase year-over-year for 2016]

– when we look at feeder cattle supplies, outside of feedlots. So, these are the ones that are still outside the feedlots. Basically 2016 is seeing an increase of about 5% of feeder cattle supplies relative to what we had the previous – in 2015, alright?

[new slide titled, Heifers Held as Beef Cow Replacements January 1 U.S., featuring a bar graph with the years 1986 to 2016 on the x-axis and million head on the y-axis and showing a large increase from 2010 to 2016]

Heifers held then as beef cow replacements – so, again what’s the expectation if we’re gonna keep them back? That’s about 3.3% relative to what we were, so all of this is again telling me and indicating –

[new slide featuring the following bulleted list – The highest cattle prices usually occur during the accumulation (rebuilding) phase of the inventory cycle, and that this trend began in 2015]

– that we are gonna sit down and say that we’re growing this cattle inventory. The highest cattle prices typically occur during the accumulation phase, basically, of the – of the inventory cycle, right? That’s when we have the lowest amount of animals; that’s when we typically see the highest prices. Accumulation –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– began late ’14. For sure we have the data that says it began in 2015. So, what that means, as we build the herd, what happens to the cattle prices? They tend to go down. Everything is cyclical, alright? So, remember, it’s – its a pendulum. Agriculture tends to be a pendulum. As grain prices go down, cattle prices are high. You know, one, you don’t tend to see profitability in both grain and livestock at the same times. We have, in certain – certain years in recent past, but that’s not the typical historical aspect of it, alright? So, what we see is, as we are starting to accumulate these cattle, the prices are gonna go down, alright? Doesn’t mean that you can’t be profitable; it’s just that if we look back at the – the – the returns on investment that we saw in 2014 and 2015, and if you are waiting and expecting to get return on investment of that level, it is not going to happen. You know, it’s one of those things of kind of like where you sit down and say, “Hey, that was a great run. And it was a great time, but I probably won’t see that level of return on my investment again, at least not for a very long period of time,” alright? So, – but it doesn’t mean you can’t be profitable.

When we look at April cattle and feed –

[slide titled, April Cattle on Feed, featuring a table of the U.S.D.A. report with three columns and four rows. The columns are labelled Thousand Head for the years 2015 (one column) and 2016 (second column) and the third column is 2016 as a percentage of 2015, the rows are – feed on April 1 0 for 2015 – 10,688, for 2016 – 10770 and percentage 16 of 15 of 101%, the second row is placed on feed in March, for 2015 – 1809, for 2016 – 1892 and percentage 105%, the last row is Fed Cattle Marketed in March, for 2015 – 1631, for 2016 -1747 and percentage 107%. Additionally, below the table is a graph of Cattle on Feed, Monthly with the months of the year on the x-axis and million head on the y-axis and three lines one for 2105, one for 2016, and one for 2010-2014 average all showing a dip over the summer months and an increase over the holiday season]

– yesterday, actually, the May cattle and feed report did come out, but it came – it comes out in the afternoon, and I’d already put my presentation together, so – [laughs] what we have – I want to talk about April, and then I’ll just tell you the numbers again for May. But basically, what we had was the U.S.D.A. Cattle and Feed Report for April. When we look at it – where we’re looking at for cattle and feed, these are the reports that come and tell us how many cattle that we have currently placed on feed in feedlots that have 1,000 head or more. How many cattle did we end up placing on feed in the previous months, and then how many did we market? So, what we’re seeing is on feed, we saw – in April, we saw they were up 1%. In May, they’re up as well. Placed on feed, we saw them up in March.

[the graph on the bottom of the slide changes to Net Feedlot Placements with the x-axis remaining the months of the year and the y-axis changing to percentage]

They were up about 5%. And in April, if we look at that one, it was up, I believe it was about 7% yesterday, is what they came through. And then the fed cattle marketed in March was –

[the graph at the bottom of the slide changes to Fed Cattle Marketings with the months still on the x-axis and the y-axis remaining percentage and showing a similar pattern from 2010 to 2016]

– up about 7%, and it was up just slightly again in – if we looked at the report from yesterday – in April. So, what does all this mean? It’s basically telling me, again, why do we have more cattle on feed? Well, again –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– we’re having more cattle on feed because the numbers are growing, alright? So, that’s telling me that we’re placing more cattle on feed because we have some more of them there. But also, too, when we sit down and we look at how long are these animals being kept on feed, we are starting to see, finally, some of that decline in weight. So, remember, go back to 2015, the end of 2015, remember, I was talking about that? We saw very, very heavy animals. We saw steers that weighed – in some places, not everywhere – but they were super heavy, and we saw steers that weighed almost as much as some bulls, alright? That’s unheard of in certain locations, you know.

So, what we saw was this – these were very heavy animals that we were. It was way too – way too heavy, and we saw an impact in the prices. If you remember between October and December, what happened to those fed animal prices is they went downhill very steeply. What we’re seeing is we’re getting back to being a lot more current, alright? So, the weights have actually decreased. They continue to decrease again this year. I mean, this month, and so we’re back to, basically, where we’re at– we’re more current on that, which is a good thing as far as for those animals, alright?

So, what we’re seeing is, we’re seeing then this increase. It was a little bit surprising that we saw the big increase in the placements. I don’t think there was an expectation by the industry that the placements would be as high as what they were but, still, we’re seeing – were seeing these placed animals and we’re staying current on that. That’s a good thing as far as for cattle prices.

Cattle prices, where are we going, then?

[slide titled, Where are we headed, featuring a bulleted list – Cattle price outlook should be viewed as having potential to be much different than expectations shown here; feeding industry will remain current, but carcass weights will continue to increase; commercial slaughter will be up 3.5% in 2016; beef production will be up 4.2% in 2016]

It’s gotta be looked at as very different, and you remember this is always – there’s always room for potential changes. Things happen, all sorts of stuff, so if you have a port disruption, or if we end up with a drought – everything that can happen, alright? But where we’re looking at, as long as the feeding industry remains current, and I put – excuse me, that says – I didn’t update that. It says “carcass weights continue to increase.” We’re actually decreasing slightly now. Where we’re looking at is our commercial slaughter in 2016, is gonna be up about 3.5%, so we will slaughter about 3.5% more animals in 2016 than what we did in 2015. And because of – even though they’ve gone down a little bit, but because of those weights, our beef production’s gonna be up about 4.2% in 2016. So, we will have more beef –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– in 2016.

Where are they gonna go, then? Again, beef trade is staying strong. Beef demand –

[slide titled, Where will Fed cattle prices go, featuring one bullet point to expect year-over-year decreases; down 17% in the first quarter, down 18.7% in the second quarter, down 13.3% in the third quarter, and down 2.5% in the fourth quarter]

– domestic beef demand is staying strong, but, overall, even though those aren’t growing, and the production is growing, we will see year-over-year declines in prices.

So, when we look at this, where do we see for first quarter prices? So, this is, again, compared – 2016 prices compared to 2015 prices. We saw first quarter prices that were down about 17% relative to where they were at in 2015. If we look going forward, then, for 20 – for the second quarter, we’ll see about – declines in prices of about 18.7%. For the third quarter, they’re gonna be about 13.3% lower. Fourth quarter’s down about 2.5%. Not as low in the fourth – not as much lower –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– of a decline in the fourth quarter, because we saw the dramatic decline last year, and so that’s being accounted for, but it will still be lower.

Where are feeder cattle prices going, then? They’re still strong in spite –

[slide titled, Where will Feeder prices go, with two bullet points. The first is that feeder prices are still strong in spite of feeding losses and the 2016 calf crop is slightly larger than 2015; the second bullet point is Year-Over-Year declines in prices for 700 to 800 pound and 500 to 600 pound – first quarter down 26% and 29%, second quarter down 34% for both, third quarter down 30% and 24%, and fourth quarter down 14% and 8%]

– of losses that the feed yards have been experiencing. Feed yards have not been experiencing the losses that they were experiencing in 2015. But they’re still – theyre still there.

When we look at these – so these are not Wisconsin prices. These are based off of southern plains prices, okay? So, you’re gonna have to do an adjustment on these. The live cattle prices offer five market prices. But basically, when we look at 7 – yearling, 700 to 800 pounders, you can see first quarter, about 26% lower, second quarter about 34% lower, third quarter about 30% lower, and fourth quarter about 14%. If we look at the 500 to 600 pounds, first quarter is again 29%, second quarter 34%, third quarter 24%, and fourth quarter 8%. So, lower prices, but if you go back –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– they’re lower prices than what they were in 2015. 2015 was our historical high. That was the highest prices they had ever been, alright? So, yes, they are lower.

Where will they go? If we look at them, expected to be –

[slide titled, Where will Calf prices go, featuring the following points – expected to be between $190 in October and November; likely to see typical seasonal pattern; watch corn prices – if they increase too dramatically, calf prices will fall]

– in about the 190 range by October, November this year. If we’re looking at calf prices, we’re gonna typically see that season – that typical seasonal pattern, again, barring any weather thing, but right now we should expect that. The biggest thing we want to do is if there is some weather, drought or something like that, we need to watch those corn prices, because if they – if corn prices start to dramatically increase, then calf prices fall. Those two tend – tend to be related to each other because, again, they’re both inputs –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– into the cattle feeder, alright? So, barring any drought, we should stay pretty high.

Where are we looking at as far as for returns? So, this is where I say –

[slide titled, Average Annual Returns to Cattle Feeders, featuring a bar graph with the years 1987 to 2016 on the x-axis and price per head on the y-axis and showing around 7 years of positive dollars per head]

– there’s still potential for profitability in – in cattle. When we look at this – these are average annual returns. So, this is not your typical – this is not your neighbor’s feed yard or your feed yard, this is the average, alright? So, when we look at corn prices on a national average and cattle prices on a national average, but it gives us a benchmark. As I said, if you look at 2015 on a per-head basis, we were sitting down and they had – were experiencing big losses of, you know, on an average in the United States, of over $300 a head. That’s a lot. Why is that? Because that was high corn – they were still experiencing higher corn prices. And that’s when they were – feeders were paying very high prices for feeder cattle.

Losses, not so – not so great now. And in fact, actual – there’s a potential – we see – if you look at this across the board, it’s always red. So, the closer it gets – that’s why I say, because, again, some of this is because of lagging, and it makes assumptions on how you’re feeding, and everybody does it different, alright? But, you know, so when you see the blip in the black, that means it’s pretty good. That’s a pretty good year, alright? So, as we get to closer, you know, we’re not – we – we’re still seeing losses here, but – I can’t get over there – we’re still seeing losses in 2016, but it’s pretty close to that zero? That means that there’s actually quite a bit of potential, then, basically, for profitability, depending on your management and how you feed, alright?

[new slide titled Opportunity for profit in 2016, featuring a bar graph titled, Estimated Average Cow Calf Returns, featuring the years 1988 to 2016 on the x-axis and price per cow on the y-axis and showing huge returns in 2014 and 2015 and modest returns for 2016]

When we look at opportunities – if you’re cow calf producers, where are we sitting here? Again, if you go back 2014, that’s basically when we were sitting here, and, you know, we – you were making – you had really good returns on investment, on – at that point. Are we as high now? No. If we look at it from an average, we’re about $150, $153 per head again. So, is that pretty good? That’s still in pretty good terms. It’s still there, but it’s not at the levels that we were seeing. And a lot of that has to do, again, because –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– of the decline, basically, in those feeder cattle prices, alright?

So, profitability potential’s still there, for where we’re looking at it as far as for cattle.

[slide titled, 2016, and containing the following bulleted list – continued strong exports but quantity will decline (concern with strength of dollar); demand will weaken some but stay mostly strong; positive views of protein and animal fats and bad view of carbs and trans-fats continue; beef prices will stay high through 2016 – abundance of pork and poultry may limit beef demand and put pressure on beef price; lower protein prices in 2016]

Things we need to be concerned about – exports, strong dollar. If we do see huge spikes in the rates in June, basically that will be a little bit concerning, because that’s gonna keep the dollar strong, which might have an impact on our exports. In that case, then, demand’s gonna weaken. And more than – we’ll see, but it should stay pretty strong.

Overall, we have positive views in the United States on protein and animal fats, as to compared to where we were at about five years ago. You know, carbs aren’t great, proteins are good, you know? So, that’s good as far as for meat production and as far as for meat prices, so we want to keep that going on. Beef prices, they’ll stay high. They’re not gonna be at those 2015 levels. And then any abundance, if again, the value of it, even if it doesn’t impact the beef trades so much, if the value of the dollar goes up and it has an impact on pork, then that’s gonna mean more pork here, and we’ll see those retailers featuring pork, which will eventually. So, there’s that domino effect. So, the things we need to be concerned about are primarily at this point, in my – in my opinion, is the value of the dollar –

[Brenda Boetel, on-camera]

– and how that impacts our exports, alright.

if you guys have any questions, I can take a few minutes now.

[applause]

[Brenda Boetel]

Yes.

[older male audience member]

What’s been going on with the-