Shawn Johnson:
Tonight we're joined by Jason Stein, research director for the Wisconsin Policy Forum. Jason, thanks for being here.

Jason Stein:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Jason, what stands out in this address?

Jason Stein:
I mean, really, the really substantial funding increases for a whole variety of priorities. You start with schools, healthcare, things like that, things that we would traditionally be expecting but then you throw in more than $290 million for Miller Park, $240 million for family medical leave, $750 million for broadband. So even those sort of non-traditional priorities easily above a billion dollars. Just those three.

Shawn Johnson:
Can you put that in context for people? I mean, I think they've heard over and over again that we have this historic budget surplus. The governor make mention of it tonight — $7.1 billion sounds big but how does this compare to previous budgets?

Jason Stein:
I mean, it's unlike anything we've ever seen before in our numbers going back 40 years. So it's really unprecedented. And so it does allow for both parties to think big whether that's on the tax cut side or on the spending side. You know, at the same time a lot of substantial increases here that will lower the state's reserves substantially, which is appropriate. But I think that the spending that is happening may be difficult to sustain in the next budget.

Frederica Freyberg:
As to the tax cuts, the governor regards them as tax cuts for the middle class. And that is, as opposed to what we understand that the Republican budget writers are interested in which may well be a flat tax. How do these two plans compare?

Jason Stein:
Sure. I mean, the first thing is the governor has a mix of both tax increases that would primarily fall on upper income earners and tax decreases that would primarily be for low and middle income earners. So whereas the Republican plan is, you know, essentially putting forward a very large tax cut, you know, that also would be difficult to sustain in future years. It would over a four-year phase it'd eventually ramp up to 5 billion a year.

Shawn Johnson:
How about the paid family leave provision that the governor talked about there? I mean this is something that we actually heard about during the race for governor last year. Republican candidate for governor Tim Michels said he'd support some kind of paid family leave in a debate. What's the likelihood that you'd see this Republican Legislature support what the governor talked about tonight?

Jason Stein:
Obviously you've seen the Republican legislature in the past move to, you know not move in favor of family medical leave. You would not expect, I think you'd start out expecting there not to be a compromise on that. But I will say that in the wake of the Dobbs decision by the U.S. Supreme Court this summer that overturned Roe v. Wade, you have seen some discussion on the Republican side about ways to provide for mothers and new families. And so that may provide some opening for at least some kind of discussion between the two sides.

Frederica Freyberg:
Do you feel like there's more compromise to be had in this budget?

Jason Stein:
I do in the sense that, you know the governor is not really expected to run for a third term. So I think, you know that sort of lowers the temperature on the politics and it may provide, you know, again, we have a very large surplus. It makes, you know, some things certainly easier in terms of the financing. And I think both sides have things that they would really like to get out of this budget. And for that to happen there's gotta be a budget approved and signed.

Shawn Johnson:
And so what happens now from here, I mean, in the past a governor would unveil a budget, and they would get, you know, a large percentage of what they wanted. That would be the working document that the Legislature dealt with. What's gonna happen with this Legislature given recent history?

Jason Stein:
Sure. I mean, if Tim Michels, the Republican nominee for governor had won in November, I think you would've seen his budget, you know, be approved in its majority by the Republican Legislature. You're expecting something, you know in an opposite direction, at least the governor's big signature proposals, you would not expect them to go through as passed. But in areas like aid for local governments which we call shared revenue, in perhaps on Miller Park or the Brewers' stadium, now American Family Field, you know in some of those areas repealing the personal property tax, you could expect to see, you know, some give and take in maybe an ultimate compromise proposal.

Frederica Freyberg:
As to that shared revenue plan that would give 20% of the state's sales tax back to local governments. The governor made note of the fact that it doesn't matter whose idea it was because this was a Republican idea.

Jason Stein:
Exactly. And yet at the same time, you didn't see a lot of clapping on the Republican side for most of the things that the governor was putting forward including that proposal. So again, there it seems like the two sides are pretty close but there's still always, I think in today's hyperpartisan world, a lot of gulf to bridge.

Shawn Johnson:
I think there might be a idea in the public that when you have so much money they ought to be able to all get something that they want. The governor ought to be able to get what he wants. The Legislature should be able to get what they want. Easy budget cycle. What do you think?

Jason Stein:
I mean, you know I think appetites grow as, you know, the platters grow. So I think, you know it'll be interesting to see there's certainly both sides can get many things that they want, maybe not all the things that they want. And I think one of the dynamics as well though is when there's more to divvy up, there's also more fight about.

Frederica Freyberg:
Meanwhile this is being introduced formally before the Joint Finance Committee this evening.

Shawn Johnson:
That's how it starts, right away.

Jason Stein:
Correct, the governor's bill will go to the Joint Finance Committee, you know, it'll be reviewed there'll be hearings in the coming months and then in May and June the Joint Finance Committee will mark that budget up. They'll send a bill out to the Assembly and Senate. They'll eventually agree on a version. It'll go to the governor, and then he will decide am I going to use my powerful partial veto pin to you know, veto this in part, but sign most of it or am I going to reject it in whole, which would, you know put us in pretty uncharted territory.

Frederica Freyberg:
We will see.

Shawn Johnson:
All right, Jason Stein, research director at the Wisconsin Policy Forum. Thanks for joining us.

Jason Stein:
Thank you.