Anthony Chergosky:
I would give you the biggest strength for both of them — their political outsider status. And this is, I mean, it's a striking parallel between Cooke and Van Orden, the fact that they portray themselves as political outsiders. Van Orden did it by using his outsider status as a way to contrast himself with Ron Kind and Brad Pfaff, two people who were holding political office at the time that Van Orden went up against them. Rebecca Cooke has made her outsider status absolutely core to her political brand. She has argued that the best way to serve the people is by finding someone who has never held political office before, that she can bring a fresh voice to the political scene. That is very much the message that Derrick Van Orden ran on prior to his election to the Congress. So quite ironically, both of them have that strength. Now, big question: Can Derrick Van Orden continue to emphasize his brand as a political outsider even though he is now in Congress? And can Rebecca Cooke withstand millions of dollars of negative campaigning, because that campaigning is gonna try to undercut her brand as a political outsider? So, in terms of their weaknesses or their vulnerabilities, Democrats are sure to argue that Derrick Van Orden is part of the problem in Washington. Democrats are sure to try to connect him to a very unpopular Congress. They are sure to connect him to what people perceive as a dysfunctional House of Representatives. Meanwhile, Rebecca Cooke has never faced the onslaught of negative campaigning that she is about to face, so can she hold up under that? Can her brand hold up under that? Can her numbers hold up under a shower of negative campaigning?

Nathan Denzin:
You've talked about this throughout these questions, but what are some things to watch as this race progresses?

Anthony Chergosky:
Yeah — the overall statewide and national political environment. So, it is likely that this district will lean a little more Republican than the state as a whole — a little more Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. So, if Tammy Baldwin and Kamala Harris are able to win by a few points at the state level, then this district could absolutely go Democratic. At the same time, we might be hesitant to predict that anyone is gonna have a decisive victory in statewide political office. So, I have to start with the statewide and national political conditions, because what happens nationally and what happens statewide will trickle down to this congressional district and how Kamala Harris does and Donald Trump do, how Eric Hovde and Tammy Baldwin do, that will affect what in this congressional district. Beyond that, though, the campaign will matter, because many people in this district are somewhat familiar with Derrick Van Orden, but they perhaps are not aware of — you know, Van Orden is still a relative newcomer on the political scene here. I mean, he ran in 2020, he was elected in 2022, and now he's running again in 2024, so that's four years that he's been on the political scene. But in western Wisconsin, we've had folks who have been on the political scene a lot longer than that. So can Van Orden continue to develop his brand? Can he continue to appeal to people who are upset with the way that the political system is working? And then on the other side, can Rebecca Cooke continue to develop her brand in the way that she wants?