If the maps were cooked, Joe Handrick was one of the chefs. In 2011, Handrick worked for a private law firm Republicans hired to draw the current maps. But Handrick said he doesn’t think these maps constitute a gerrymander.

“Did we create a map that created the Republican majorities? No.” Handrick asserted. “The geography of Wisconsin and the concentration of Democratic voters creates the Republican majority.”

This latter point is one area where Handrick and Ellenberg agree. In a statewide election, Wisconsin is evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. Ellenberg said he can create thousands of computer-generated maps to test what the average number of wins should be for each party in the Assembly.

“Under those conditions of exact, even split of voters, how many Republicans would there be in the state Assembly? And like, no spoiler. I’m just [going to] tell you the answer is probably about 55,” Ellenberg said.

University of Wisconsin-Madison math professor Jordan Ellenberg describes how the partisan makeup of Wisconsin’s elected representatives does not line up with expectations based on the state’s narrowly divided electorate. (Credit: PBS Wisconsin)

That’s because a lot of Wisconsin voters who tend to vote for Democrats are concentrated in the cities. So, while Democrats can rack up huge margins in some Assembly races, Republicans get their legislative majority in districts crafted to give them 60% of the vote.

Ellenberg said that based on where partisans live, the range of safe Assembly seats for Republicans should be in the mid-50s, not the 61 seats the party currently holds.

“There’s not a single answer, but there is a reasonable range,” Ellenberg said. “And, 62 to 63 is not in that range. It’s way out there that basically never happens unless you build in a big advantage.”

Handrick argued that credit for his party’s majority should go to quality Republicans candidates, not just the maps he helped to draw.

“You have to remember, Republicans have won a couple of seats that actually are Democratic seats on top of that,” Handrick said. “So that’s 57, 58 [seats]. The map probably accounts for the difference between that and the 60 or 61 seats [Republicans are] at.”

McClellan said the number one priority for the People’s Maps Commission isn’t which party wins, but keeping “communities of interest” intact. Unfortunately, just like fair maps, there isn’t one definition for a community of interest. Often it’s interpreted to mean keeping counties, cities and villages within the same district.

Annemarie McClellan represents Wisconsin’s 3rd Congressional District on the People’s Maps Commission, which Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, formed to help guide the state’s redistricting process. (Credit: PBS Wisconsin)

“It might be school districts,” McClellan said. “That’s one thing that we heard that a lot of people say that ‘I want to keep [my school district] intact’ because sometimes school districts cross municipalities or they even cross county lines.”

McClellan said the commission won’t ignore the partisan outcome for whichever map they choose, since so many people consider that the ultimate test of fairness.

“Everything else being equal, if one map shows that it’s more fair, partisan-wise, we would go with that,” she said.

Handrick says any map produced by the commission should be viewed as a Democratic map.

“It’s not a nonpartisan commission,” he said. “It’s not a bipartisan commission. It’s a partisan commission to advance the interests of Democrats. There’s nothing wrong with that, but I wish they would just call it that.”

Ellenberg said any map produced by the People’s Maps Commission should be looked at through the same critical lens used on a map created by Republicans in the Legislature. But, he added that the way each group went about creating their maps should be judged as well.

“Their outcome, of course, has to be judged by the same standards you would judge any other outcome,” he said. “But the process is much better. I think that’s completely clear.”