Democriatic candidate Joe Biden maintains a five-point lead over President Donald Trump in the latest Marquette Law School poll.
That marks a consistent single-digit lead for the Democratic candidate, but is still within the each candidate’s 4.4% margin of error among likely voters.
Poll director Charles Franklin said however, that result could change depending on the level of turnout for the 2020 election. Biden’s 48%-43% lead is among likely voters, but his lead shrinks to 47%-43% if the poll includes almost all registered voters.
Biden’s lead decreases to 48%-45% in a low-turnout election, according to Franklin.
This comes as roughly 40% of Wisconsin’s registered voters have already cast their ballot for the Nov. 3 election.
Of those having already voted, a reported 64% went for Biden, while 25% voted for Trump. The president leads among those having not voted yet 56%-35%.
Among those having not yet voted, Franklin said most had already made up their minds.
“In 2016, we saw this group break heavily for Donald Trump at the end,” Franklin said. “When we ask [now], is your mind made up or is there a chance you might change it? Ninety one percent say their mind is made up, just 6% say they might change.”
Of the 8% who said in the October poll they were undecided, Franklin allocated them to either Biden or Trump based on their favorable or unfavorable view of the candidate. With those allocated undecided voters, Biden still has a five-point lead at 50%-45%.
Biden is also above water in his favorability numbers by three points at 49%-46%. This is similar to his result in the September Marquette poll, but higher than his net-negative rating in polls taken during the spring and summer of 2020.
Trump remains under water with his favorability rating at 44%-54%. This tracks with other Marquette polls taken this year, which consistently place the president in negative double-digits.
The president’s job approval fairs slightly better, with 47% approving and 52% disapproving. Trump also received high marks on his handling of the economy, with a net-positive 51%-48% approval.
As Wisconsinites head to the polls, most—70%—say they are very or somewhat confident votes will be accurately cast and counted this November. That number is higher among Democrats and lower among Republicans.
Eighty percent of partisans believe their candidate will win next week, while the state as a whole is split 39% who think Trump will win reelection and 46% who think Biden will take the White House.