Here & Now reporter Nathan Denzin reported from Milwaukee for former President Donald Trump’s second rally in Wisconsin in a week, even as Vice President Kamala Harris also campaigned in the state twice over the same time, including a stop in West Allis at the same time. Charles Franklin of the Marquette Law School Poll detailed his final survey of voters in the state before Election Day, which showed tight margins in the presidential and U.S. Senate races.
 

Nathan Denzin
Reporter, Here & Now

• Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump were both in Wisconsin the week ahead of the Nov. 5 election, with each holding rallies in the Milwaukee area on the night of Nov. 1. One question is why would Trump stump in an overwhelmingly Democratic stronghold like Milwaukee? Denznin said it was on the advice of party regulars that he returned to the city where the Republican National Convention was held.
• Denizin: “It harkens back to the advice that former Gov. Tommy Thompson had given to Republican voters, and that is to really hit these areas of Madison and Milwaukee hard. If you look at it — the percentages — I might say that they’re very, very Democratic. And that’s true. But there’s still a lot of Republican votes in these cities, and they don’t get to see their presidential candidate very often. So, Republicans are trying to get these areas to drive out those voters because as we know, in a state like Wisconsin, every vote counts.”

Charles Franklin
Director, Marquette Law School Poll

• In his final poll conducted before Election Day, Franklin found Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris was supported by 50% of likely voters in Wisconsin surveyed, while Republican candidate Donald Trump’s was supported by 49%. In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, the poll found Democratic incumbent U.S. Sent. Tammy Baldwin had 51% support from likely voters compared to 49% for Republican challenger Eric Hovde. Both races have tightened since his previous poll of Wisconsin voters released on Oct. 2. So in an effective toss-up, Franklin described what he plans to watch for as election results come in after the polls close on Nov. 5.
• Franklin: “It’s always the margin of the vote coming in in Milwaukee and in Dane County. That’s where Democrats run up their huge margins — in those two counties. The WOW counties around Milwaukee, do those show a further decline in Republican strength? We expect the Republicans to win, but maybe by less. And then I think the sleeper is what happens in the north and west of the state. Trump gained a lot of votes from ’12 to ’16, but in’ 20, he basically broke even with where he had been in 2016. But there’s potential for a surge in Trump votes there. If that happens, that’s good news for him. If it fails to happen, then we’re looking at the southeast to see if these trends that we’ve seen in the Milwaukee suburbs and in Milwaukee and Dane County hold up.”

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