Amna Nawaz:
A trio of off-cycle election results show the president and his party losing political ground, even as they won two of the three races.

Geoff Bennett:
Political correspondent Lisa Desjardins has a look now at the message sent by voters in Wisconsin and Florida.

Lisa Desjardins:
The most expensive judicial race ever for a pivotal but technically nonpartisan seat on Wisconsin's Supreme Court ends in a victory lap for Judge Susan Crawford and Democrats nationwide.

Susan Crawford, Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice-elect:
As a little girl, growing up in Chippewa Falls, I never could have imagined that I'd be taking on the richest man in the world.

Susan Crawford:
And we won.

Lisa Desjardins:
That richest man reference is not about her actual opponent, Judge Brad Schimel, but Elon Musk. The billionaire sunk more than $20 million of his personal wealth into the race, as out-of-state money poured in from both sides of the aisle.

Ultimately, voters clearly chose Crawford 55 percent to 45.

Brad Schimel, Wisconsin Supreme Court candidate:
I have called judge and conceded.

Man:
No, no.

Woman:
No.

Brad Schimel:
No, no, no. You have got to accept the results.

Sandy Baka, Wisconsin resident:
We have a lot of people who need to get a little bit more in the game on the Republican side. They tend to vote every four years in a presidential election. And we need people to stay tuned in.

Lisa Desjardins:
In Wisconsin, the race is likely to influence the future of abortion access there, as well as redistricting for and possibly the balance of power in Congress.

Zac Schultz covers politics for PBS Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz, PBS Wisconsin:
I think everyone expects to see some challenges make their way up to the court that will look to redraw what is currently a 6-2 majority for Republicans in our congressional seats.

Lisa Desjardins:
The race is also another salvo in the role big outside money plays up and down the ballot.

Zac Schultz:
Elon Musk can attract attention and he can bring out voters, but he does it for both sides of the aisle. I don't think there's any doubt he juiced conservative turnout for Brad Schimel's campaign, but speaking to a number of liberals and Democrats over the last few days, he juiced turnout on the liberal side as well.

Lisa Desjardins:
Musk downplayed the loss, posting that the most important thing was a ballot measure cementing the state's voter I.D. requirement. On that, the state voted by an even larger margin, 62 percent to 37 percent, to amend the state's constitution and require photo I.D. at the polls.

That's something conservatives see as a win, along with two wins from voters in Florida.

Randy Fine, Republican, Florida Representative-elect:
People don't know me that well. President Trump asked you to vote for me, but now it's incumbent upon me over the next two years to show you that I am worthy of that trust.

Lisa Desjardins:
Businessman and state lawmaker Randy Fine won a special election to fill a vacancy left by now-National Security Adviser Michael Waltz. That was in one of two special elections held in Florida congressional districts, where Trump won by 30 and 37 points less than five months ago. But Republicans won last night by half that or less.

Randy Fine:
I won, last time we looked, by 14 points, so I think it's hard to say that's an underperformance.

Lisa Desjardins:
Joining Fine will be Florida's chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronis, filling the seat vacated by former Congressman Matt Gaetz. Those wins give Speaker Mike Johnson a bit more wiggle room, but a still historically tight margin in the House.

Geoff Bennett:
And Lisa Desjardins joins us now from Capitol Hill.

So, Lisa, what do these special elections for Congress?

Lisa Desjardins:
I think there are two important ways to think about these elections, first what they mean for the chamber right now. And I mean right now.

This is video of something that happened moments ago, the two Florida winners, Republicans, being sworn in to fill those vacant seats. Now, that changes the margins in the House right away. So let's look at what that does specifically.

Before today, the Republicans had just a two-vote margin in the House. They had 218 votes. Now they have got a three-vote margin. That might not sound like a big deal to us, but that's a huge deal to Speaker Johnson. They have 220 votes. Now, I will caution people, this is going to change again. There are two Democratic-leaning seats that are vacant. Those special elections will change things.

But this is likely the largest majority that House Republicans will see, at least for the foreseeable future. Now, that brings us to the next most important point, which is what this says about the House Republicans' ability to hold on to the chamber after the next midterm elections.

Democrats see a real opportunity from what happened, especially in Wisconsin, because they note that Trump was not on the ballot there or in Florida. And, in fact, those margins for Republicans either were not what they wanted or smaller than they wanted. Democrats think then, with Trump not on the ballot again in the midterm, his voters won't come out and they have got a real opportunity to reclaim the chamber.

Geoff Bennett:
Well, tell me more about that. Big picture, what lessons are the national parties taking away from the House from this?

Lisa Desjardins:
Republicans will say the lessons is that Democrats have kind of gone too far on issues like voter I.D. They point to that in Wisconsin as a real win for them, but really it's Democrats who seem to have found the biggest lessons from what happened, especially in Wisconsin.

It was interesting. I talked to one left-leaning group who works on elections, works in kind of that campaign field. They had their biggest day in history because of this Wisconsin vote. And they said the lesson is that voters are rejecting the idea that Elon Musk, billionaires can buy their way into the election. That's something Democrats think they can run on.

This is a Democratic Party that's been struggling to respond to Trump. They feel like maybe they're getting their footing. Another part of that, of course, is Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey taking to the Senate floor, speaking for more than 25 hours, setting a record.

The Democrats and those opposing Trump have wanted action. They're seeing the first beginnings of that, maybe a framework going ahead, so say Democrats.

Geoff Bennett:
Meantime, Lisa, Senate Republicans are taking steps toward passing key parts of the Trump agenda. Bring us up to speed. What's happening?

Lisa Desjardins:
Right. OK.

So to pass all of the Trump agenda, especially those tax cuts, you have to get a budget resolution through Congress. And today Senate Budget Chairman Lindsey Graham put out his compromise version. This is a very big deal. He told me exactly what is in it. So let me go through this.

This is a version that would extend the current Trump tax cuts, make them permanent. It would expand those tax cuts as well. They haven't said exactly how yet, but it would raise the national debt ceiling $5 trillion. We know that something conservatives generally don't like, but that would be part of this.

Now this is something we're going to watch closely the next two days. This could pass as quickly as this weekend, but, meanwhile, to do this, Republicans say they may ignore the cost of extending the Trump tax cuts altogether. That is an unprecedented budget move. It is untested.

And it would be kind of a nuclear type of option, that from the same Republicans who in the past have really decried when Democrats have threatened to change the rules in similar ways.

Geoff Bennett:
Yes, more to come on that.

But you have Senate Democrats who are poised to pass this bill that is a rare vote of disapproval on the Trump tariffs on Canada, and the Democrats have some support from Republicans on this? Tell me more about that.

Lisa Desjardins:
Yes, let's go through this. We're giving folks a lot of news tonight, but this is on the tariff news of today.

The Congress has the power to pull back an emergency declaration from the president. And that's what the Senate will vote on today, whether to object to or reverse the emergency declaration involving Canada. Now, this does require a majority vote.

And look at this. There are four Republicans who have said they are in fact against what Trump is doing with Canada. You can see their names there. These are folks that have voted against some Trump policies in the past. So if this passes the Senate, it is symbolic, however, because the House is not expected to take this up.

This move would end the Trump tariffs on Canada, but because the House won't take it off, it's symbolic. It shows there is some Republican opposition to these tariffs, but it also shows it is a small group of Republicans saying that publicly.

Geoff Bennett:
Lisa Desjardins tracking it all for us tonight from Capitol Hill, thanks, as always.

Lisa Desjardins:
You're welcome.