In most presidential elections, pundits talk about the “October surprise,” the last minute news story that can change the trajectory of an election. But in 2024, the biggest shift took place in July when President Joe Biden announced he was stepping aside, allowing for Vice President Kamala Harris to become the Democratic nominee.

The race in Wisconsin quickly changed, as seen at the bustling office of the Ozaukee Democrats on a beautiful fall day.

“So, I’ve never seen this many people wanting to volunteer, ever,” said Deb Dassow, chair of the county party as she was getting the room ready for a visit from Gwen Walz, wife of vice presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Ozaukee County is the ‘O’ in the famed WOW counties, the three conservative hotbeds that surround Milwaukee County and make up the traditional base of the Republican Party of Wisconsin.

“I picked up close to 400 signs last week,” Dassow said. “We’ve got 10 left.”

By the end of the day, another 1,000 Harris signs had been dropped off, waiting to be assembled and put up in yards — a visual reminder of the growing Democratic strength in suburban Wisconsin.

It wasn’t too long ago that a visit from someone like Walz and supporters buying yard signs in Ozaukee County was unthinkable.

“There was a time when the state party would not give us any signs,” said Dassow.

Four months earlier, this level of activity was unthinkable.

“We had a debate party here that night — and when President Biden walked out onto the, to the podium, I was like, ‘Oh, boy,'” Dassow said.

At the end of June, Biden debated former President Donald Trump.

“The mood here was very solemn — we actually had people say, ‘I’m going to vote for him, but I’m not going to do doors, you know, I’m not going to volunteer,'” explained Dassow.

A few weeks later, the Republican National Convention came to Milwaukee, and polling showed Trump with a lead in Wisconsin and Republicans with a huge advantage in voter enthusiasm.

“The enthusiasm gap for Donald Trump versus Joe Biden is 22 points — 22 points,” said Brian Schimming, chair of the state party, on the first day of the convention, Monday, July 15.

By the end of that week, on Thursday, July 18 when Trump accepted the nomination, Schimmingwas warning delegates not to be overconfident about winning.

“It’s not just rhetoric. It affects the way we run our parties, the way we volunteer, the way we run door to door programs. It affects everything. So we got to go for the win,” he said.

That Sunday, July 21, Joe Biden suspended his campaign and dropped out of the race.

“I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation,” Biden said in a July 24 address.

Harris quickly gathered enough support to become the nominee, and Democratic candidates across the state felt the mood change at the doors overnight.

“I did feel like I was kind of running a roving therapy session for relieved Democrats at the doors occasionally, because everyone who was a partisan was wanting to talk to you about that and how they felt about it,” said Jamie Wall, a Democrat running in Wisconsin’s 30th Senate District.

“There’s definitely been a shift in enthusiasm which helps everybody, right?”said Christy Welch, who is running for the 88th Assembly District and also serves as chair of the Democratic Party of Brown County.

She said voter enthusiasm is more than just being excited to vote.

“With Kamala at the top of the ticket, we definitely saw a major increase in people filling out our volunteer form on our website, calling into the office, stopping by,” said Welch.

By the time Harris accepted the nomination at the Democratic National Convention, she had taken a lead in the polls and closed the enthusiasm gap.

“So, there’s certainly been a shift in enthusiasm,” said Mandela Barnes, the former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin and the 2022 Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, on the first day of the DNC, on Monday, Aug. 19. “I actually just ran into some folks that I saw about two months ago, and our faces look a little bit different. And look, with all due respect to the president, there’s certainly a shift in energy.”

By September, the debate tables were turned. Democrats at a Green Bay watch party hooted and cheered as Harris delivered a strong performance, while Republicans across town were upset that some of Trump’s statements were being fact checked by moderators.

The next week, Harris was in Madison, encouraging her supporters to volunteer and trying to turn enthusiasm into action.

“The election is basically here. It’s basically here, and we have work to do — to energize, organize, to mobilize, to remind everyone your vote is your voice,” Harris said.

Republicans are asking the same thing of their supporters.

“Remember, early mail-in voting is underway, so vote, vote, vote! You got to get going,” said Trump at a rally in Waunakee at the start of October.

Schimming said Republicans haven’t lost on enthusiasm.

“It’s great statewide for us,” he said at a late September news conference. “It’s just no longer a blowout.”

Schimming touted the excitement of Republicans to vote.

“It’s very, very high out there, has not ebbed at all since the convention. It’s really, really good. The Democrats have to make up for lost time. So, what appears to be a jump in the enthusiasm gap on their end is more getting rid of Joe Biden,” he said.

On Election Day — Tuesday, Nov. 5 — an enthusiastic vote counts just the same as a reluctant vote, but the campaigns hope an enthusiastic voter will bring non-voters to the polls.

“I want you to be a force multiplier over these next 16 days, because I don’t just want you to take yourself to the polls, I want every single person in this room to get nine of your friends and family with you,” said Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance at an Oct. 20 rally in Waukesha.

“All of this energy, and all of these rallies, and all of the door knocks, and all of the phone, calls and all of the money have to translate into something so wonderful and so simple,” said Walz at an Oct. 22 rally in Madison. “That little ‘I Voted’ sticker on more Wisconsin folks than ever before.”