Frederica Freyberg:
So Professor Chergosky, just after the governor's State of the State address where he spoke to what he called "fair maps." In the Capitol, there is a sense from Speaker Robin Vos himself that he might vote for the governor's maps.

Anthony Chergosky:
It just shows how wild and crazy government in Wisconsin can be. Gerrymandering is the hot topic in Wisconsin state government because so much is at stake. We're talking legislators' jobs, their chances of getting reelected, the balance of power in Wisconsin state government, majority control. So even as Governor Evers gave his State of the State address thoughts of Campaign '24 were clearly the overarching concern for legislators and the governor alike. As you noted, Frederica, he mentioned fair maps in his address and he tried to make the argument that gerrymandering leads to distorted policy outcomes. So it's clear that gerrymandering is top-of-mind for basically everyone here in Wisconsin State Government.

Frederica Freyberg:
What is your reaction to the idea that the Assembly and Speaker Vos would forward the idea of voting for the governor's maps, agreeing with that?

Anthony Chergosky:
It's a surprising development, but it also just shows how completely transformed the politics of redistricting have become. Something like this would've been laughable in previous years, but if we look at the politics of the Wisconsin State Supreme Court, the new liberal majority, and the subsequent lawsuit over redistricting, that all leads us to this point where the political realities for Republicans are completely different than they used to be. And that is causing Republicans to do some surprising things on the issue of redistricting.

Frederica Freyberg:
But even the governor's maps would maintain a Republican majority.

Anthony Chergosky:
It's likely that that would be the case in a neutral political environment. In a strong year for Democrats, they would have a shot at the majority, and that's true of most redistricting proposals that I've seen. Because of the way Republicans are geographically distributed, they would tend to win a majority in a neutral political environment. So Democrats would have to hope for a strong political context for their party, the overall political conditions, and they'd also need to hope for strong candidates as well as robust fundraising in order to win the majority.

Frederica Freyberg:
Why would Robin Vos agree to the governor's map?

Anthony Chergosky:
I think it just reflects the fact that Speaker Vos is short on options at this point. If we think about the Wisconsin State Supreme Court, they are on path to enacting new district maps for the November 2024 election. I don't think a U.S. Supreme Court challenge is likely to succeed, at least it seems like a long shot. So I think Speaker Vos is looking at the process going through the Wisconsin State Supreme Court, thinking about the probability that the U.S. Supreme Court could weigh in. I think people in the Capitol are pricing all of that in and making strategic adjustments accordingly.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right, Anthony Chergosky, thanks very much.

Anthony Chergosky:
Thank you.