To The Contrary

Funding for To the Contrary, provided by: This week, on To the Contrary, first, what early voting patterns tell us about a possible Harris surge and whether Donald Trump's closing message is convincing or simply shocking voters.

Then, Liz Cheney appeals to conservative voters across party lines and vote for Kamala Harris.

Hello, I'm Bonnie Erb.

Welcome to To the Contrary, a discussion of news and social trends from diverse perspectives.

Up first, the Trump campaign's final push.

Donald Trump's bid to become president again could be showing signs of trouble as the time remaining drops down to less than two weeks.

Early voting data suggest women, particularly young women, are turning out at a higher rate than expected in some battleground states.

Why is this important?

As of October 21, some 17 million Americans voted early or absentee, according to Target Smarts Target Early dashboard.

Republicans have also struggled to turn out young white men at rates they had hoped for among early voters.

Rather than provide a disciplined closing message, Trump has spoken on a variety of irrelevant and even unseemly topics, such as the late golfer Arnold Palmer's man parts.

But he also shocked some by speaking repeatedly about using the military to attack what he calls the enemy within, which includes prominent democratically elected officials such as representative and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

CNN this week reported Trump's advantage among non-college white voters has dropped from 33% in 2016 to 27% now.

These voters are 40% of the U.S. electorate.

Regardless, Trump has made gains with Black men.

Given all the data, including polling and early voting patterns, most forecasters still predict an extremely tight race, but a few now see signs of a surprise blue wave.

Joining us this week to discuss the final days of the campaign are Linda Chavez of the Center for Equal Opportunity.

Dr. Lara Brown, political scientist and author, ophthalmologist and former U.S. representative Nan Hayworth, Republican of New York, and Candice Norwood of the 19th, a women-oriented news website.

All right.

Linda Chavez, you go first.

Does Trump have a closing message or is he too off message to have one?

Donald Trump is in serious cognitive decline, and we've seen that throughout the campaign.

But it's really come into focus as he's gotten very tired.

He can not stay on message.

He does not talk about policy.

He insults Vice President Harris routinely, including using racist tropes, calling her lazy, repeated time and low IQ, something he's used against, other Blacks in the past.

I think it's a message that will turn off suburban Republican women, and it's not going to help him win the election.

There are some data just out this week that show that white Republican women are not, or he's losing support among them.

Your thoughts, Nan Hayworth?

Most of us on this panel and most of our listeners and millions of Americans prefer a civil approach.

There's no question.

I don't see that President Trump's pugnacity has particularly changed since the 2016 election.

He was pretty ferocious about then Secretary Clinton as well.

Still, Secretary Clinton, of course, and, managed to prevail in that election.

I don't think he's showing signs of cognitive decline.

I do think that campaigns tend to wear on every one.

And Vice President Harris, indeed yesterday temporarily forgot that she was had been in the state of Michigan to campaign, when she was in an interview.

But let me say Nan, he called January 6th where six people died and there is some dispute about that number, but he said that that was a love fest where they broke into the Capitol.

A police officer, a Capitol Police officer was killed by a shot, and they damaged a lot of, you know, statues and windows belonging to the American people.

I'm not trying to relitigate January 6th.

That was not the nation's best day by any means.

However, the full story of it has not completely been told.

The only person who died of gunfire that day was Ashley Babbitt, who was not a police officer, obviously, but that aside, President Trump's closing argument has to do very much with the fact that, for all Americans in every demographic, things were better for them during his presidency.

The economy was better, jobs were better.

Wealth and savings were higher.

Young people could afford to purchase a home, which is increasingly out of reach for them now.

Energy prices were lower.

So those foundations were all better for Americans, despite the, you know, offenses to our sensibilities in certain respects, esthetically, and that's his closing argument.

Okay, but wait a minute.

Okay.

Now, Lara Brown, was the economy actually better when Trump left office?

I thought his mishandling my perception was, anyway, his mishandling of the COVID epidemic and how many thousands of Americans died because of that contributed to a dead economy when President Biden took over.

The economic analyzes that have been done not only show that President Biden's economy has been stronger, and in fact, the the economy is just referred to as the envy of the world. It is also true that we have experienced, between the pandemic and the recovery from the pandemic, serious economic dislocations.

So both presidents have had trying times.

But economically speaking, Trump's early years were not as strong in terms of creating jobs or wealth as actually Biden's later years have been.

And it is also true that the policies that are being put forth by Vice President Harris versus the policies put forth by former President Trump have been analyzed and looked at and every way economist can do this, they have found that former President Trump's policies would drive deficits, undermine Social Security and in fact, spike inflation higher than anything that Vice President Harris has proposed.

So, Candace Norwood, your thoughts about Trump's closing argument in the final days of the campaign?

Is he losing voters, gaining them, none of the above?

I think what we are seeing is that there are efforts, particularly from the Harris campaign, to really chip away at disaffected Republican voters.

And some polling indicates that that may be working in some capacity.

This is a small group, but there was a national poll recently that found that about 9% of Republican voters are thinking about supporting Harris, and that skews to be women and older women and has grown over the last month.

Please talk about Trump's message in the final weeks of the campaign.

I think what we are seeing from Trump is a lot of the same, frankly, there's definitely been an appeal in general to certain demographics of voters such as Latino men and Black men.

But at an event recently that he had for the Latinx people, there was very little talk of issues that they are concerned about.

Certainly, immigration and border security is one of them.

But one of the top issues for Latinx voters is the economy.

And when presented with an opportunity to talk about that, he overlooked it and focused into his usual immigration rhetoric.

Nan Hayworth, some people say that Trump's antics like the dance 40 minutes of dancing to his Spotify playlist, during what was supposed to be a campaign rally and obviously stunned Kristi Noem, the South Dakota governor, who was supposed to be hosting it.

Things like that, that he's been doing a lot recently are just Trump being Trump.

Do you agree?

Let's just clarify that at that particular event, at the venue, and this has been verified and validated by folks who are not fans of President Trump at the venue, apparently the temperature control was not good.

It was very hot.

It was crowded.

There were two people fainted.

Medical issues, and President Trump always thoughtfully, you know, defers to the care that goes on and pauses things.

And he's done that a lot at a lot of his rallies because there are people who faint, so at that particular event, there were a couple of things that happening just said, you know what?

Let's just chill.

Clearly that is not a pattern that he has had at his other rallies, events, talks.

But it's the length of time.

It's the length of time that it went on.

And then he said, who wants to talk about issues?

Let's just listen to music, okay?

Is that something a normal president presidential candidate does or says.

In my having covered elections since 1976, I've never seen anything like it.

You know, Donald Trump is a candidate and a political figure who has, certainly carved his own niche, let's put it that way.

But that was an isolated event for specific reasons.

He is obviously unafraid to engage with nearly all of the press.

I just want to get in here, Bonnie, because I actually watched the 40 minutes of that incident.

And quite to the contrary, what Dr. Hayworth has suggested, he did not show concern about the people.

He was visibly annoyed when the second person fainted, and it sort of shut things down.

And I'm sorry, listening to music and doing the sort of double jerk, I call it, dance that he does on stage with the playlist, which is bizarre in and of itself, you know, contrasted it.

And it included YMCA, which is a pro LGBT.

The gay anthem.

Right.

Yes.

Hes got a lot of gay supporters, folks.

Let me, let me finish.

It wasn't just that.

I mean, it was juxtaposed against things like Ave Maria and Pavarotti singing opera.

It was very, very strange.

And clearly when you looked at the faces, Kristi Noem looked like she wanted to die.

She wanted to get out of there.

Other people on stage looked just horrified.

But this is not normal behavior.

If your grandfather acted this way, you would say, the families got to get together.

We have to find a home for him.

And let's make sure we take away his keys.

And why?

Why are Republicans not doing that, Nan Hayworth?

Because they don't perceive the problems that folks who, clearly, find President Trump to be someone they despise.

Candace, your thoughts?

Is he behaving?

I mean, the media jumped on Joe Biden from day one.

The moment he started showing mental decline.

Are they giving that issue equal time for Donald Trump or have they been avoiding it?

And from what you've observed as a political reporter, do you think you're seeing mental decline?

I, as you said am a political reporter, I am not a doctor, so I cannot weigh in on whether I think that Trump is experiencing mental decline.

I think the ways that media organizations talk about this issue of the dancing and kind of the, some would say rambling rhetoric, is more in the bizarre and the weird, rather than maybe as much of focusing on his mental capacity.

There are certainly people questioning that.

But that could be seen as an imbalance there.

So, I mean, it's tough to say, like how this will actually affect people because what we see in these crowds, right, is still people nodding their heads.

Still people cheering and still people vehemently like supporting him.

The basic problem is no one has held his feet to the fire with respect to his medical records.

We are not talking about a position that isn't honorific, you know, post.

We are talking about the presidency of the United States, the individual who is charged with nuclear codes.

We are talking about somebody who has already been documented to confiscate and hold classified documents.

That case has been dismissed and it is will be back on appeal because what he did is fundamentally problematic and not in line with our criminal law.

So we are not talking about somebody like, oh, that is.

He's already been, he's already been convicted of 34 felony charges.

Yes.

But let's face it, the most serious allegations and indictments have all been put on the back burner.

And we have a Republican Party that is denying and ignoring his, sort of really incapacity, his inability to focus, his inability to handle this.

And this is where it is stunning to me, not who Trump is, because we've all known who Trump has been for a decade.

The problem is the enabling among Republican leadership that all of this is not a problem.

A vote for Trump is a vote for Vance.

And if you don't believe that, you're not being honest with yourself.

All right, let us know what you think.

Please follow me on Twitter @BonnieErbe.

From early voting patterns to Republican women, Republican Liz Cheney is crossing party lines to campaign alongside VP Kamala Harris.

The former congresswoman says Donald Trump is a unique threat to America who must be defeated.

At an event in Pennsylvania, Cheney pitched directly to conservative women, urging them to support Harris despite disagreements over abortion rights.

She also said they have nothing to fear from Harris and argued that some GOP restrictions post-Dobbs, the Supreme Court decision that threw out Roe v. Wade, have gone too far, endangering women's health.

Her endorsement of Harris marks a significant break from traditional Republican positions, given Cheney's prior high ratings from pro-life groups.

Okay, Candace, what's going on here?

And how do you think that that she will be, Liz Cheney will influence many Republican women voters.

And why is she coming out at this time?

So what we're seeing right now is this effort by the Harris campaign to signal to moderate conservatives that it is okay for you to identify as a conservative and vote for Harris.

And Cheney is both, her father, and, Liz Cheney are a big part of that effort.

And so I think, Liz Cheney, as someone who has held leadership positions in the Republican Party, she is someone from a family that has a long legacy in the Republican Party and very public.

And she's also someone who's a mother of five children, which is something she spoke about very publicly.

And connecting that and concern about the future of democracy to her children.

Is it a convincing message, though, do you think?

We are seeing some numbers shift in terms of more women, in particular older women going toward Harris.

So I think it is potentially a powerful message to kind of get at those groups, and chip away, as Harris is trying to do in these final weeks of the election.

Nan Hayworth, do you see it, as Is it a convincing message or Republican women just going to ignore it?

Well, I think some Republican women will heed that message.

I'm not sure that they are new converts, that I don't know.

Candace probably knows more about that kind of data.

But I do think that the majority of Republican women, see through the noise, the kinds of things we've been talking about in terms of aesthetics and style and things like that.

And, you know, are concentrating on the consequences of policy, not only domestically, but also in terms of national security and not just that, but about women's and girls sports and spaces.

And that is, has been called a sleeper issue that is starting to gain more prominence.

There is a real threat to the health and safety of girls and women as biological boys and men are allowed into their, what have been, private protected spaces, that is and sports that is a serious issue, that I think a lot of women are starting to recognize even in these final days of the campaign.

Laura Brown, what do you think?

Because there were there were some data that came out this week showing Trump is losing some support among married white women.

And that's the voting group that consistently votes more Republican than all other groups of women.

Let me just say, I agree with Dr. Hayworth that there are women who are Republican leaning, but they are not necessarily recent converts.

I mean, I look at myself as somebody who, even though I have long been a moderate Democrat, I have voted for Republicans for president.

But it is true that when Trump was elected in 2016, I moved back to the Democratic Party and I have not left.

And it has been because he is, from my perspective, incredibly disrespectful and cruel.

And not only that, he's an adjudicated rapist.

And so I do think there are many more women who, since the Women's March in 2017, since the MeToo Movement, since, you know, Hillary Clinton's loss, I think there are many women who have gravitated toward the Democratic Party.

And certainly the outcome of Dobbs and the realities of now reproductive rights, have shifted women.

But many of those things have happened over years, not months.

Linda, as a almost lifelong Republican, and very devoted member of the party, do you think women will look at this, look at what's going on with him and all the factors we've talked about and switch and then Liz Cheney, of course, wooing them to vote Democratic.

Do you think they'll listen?

Not a lot of them will listen, but there doesn't need to be a lot of them to listen.

This is a very, very close race.

And we are talking about a 1 or 2% shift in votes having a tremendous impact, particularly in those battleground states.

So I do think it's effective to reach out.

And by the way, I think it's important to understand that some of us who oppose Donald Trump, I am not a liberal.

I have not joined the Democratic Party.

I don't agree with the party on many issues.

But you have left the Republican Party.

I've left the Republican Party.

Okay.

And my hope is eventually that the Republican Party will have a rebirth, after Donald Trump.

It's looking less and less like that's going to happen.

So I may end up living the rest of my life as an independent.

I've already cast my vote.

I voted for Vice President Harris, even though I disagree with her on a lot of issues.

And I voted for Larry Hogan for the United States Senate in Maryland because I agree with him on a lot of issues.

And I think there are going to be more and more conservatives like me who just cannot abide what Donald Trump is planning to do.

And the threat he represents to democracy.

And I just like to ask you all quickly, I know it's not a quick answer type of question, but if he loses the election, which is a big if, will there be riots and chaos afterwards?

Starting with you, Candace.

There is a genuine concern from a number of people, particularly individuals who are already from historically marginalized populations, people of color, LGBTQ+ people, it will say, especially in light of after January 6th.

What will happen, are their kind of daily lives in jeopardy.

And will we see kind of pushback in violence, in legislation, etc.

There is no way in the world that Donald Trump will accept defeat.

He has never accepted defeat.

The question is, will there be blood?

And he has certainly talked about the rioting.

And he certainly encouraged the insurrection on January 6th.

So it's going to be a very, very scary time.

I actually think that it's all about the margin.

Right.

So there is a place where if Vice President Harris prevails, in sort of, I don't want to say landslide way because we don't have that sort of battleground, but in a solid win or victory, it will be more difficult for anyone to push back.

But I don't think there will be.

I don't support that kind of action.

I think they'll be, you know, obviously a lot of frustration.

I think there'll be continued miseries, sadly, and I hope that Americans learn a lot about how policies really have a material effect on our lives and, you know, learn to ask more about policy and vote more on policy.

Thank you all.

That's it for this edition.

Please follow me on Twitter and visit our website.

Follow us on X, formerly Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

Whether you agree or think to the contrary, see you next week.

Funding for To the Contrary, provided by: