PBS News Hour

conflict in the Middle East as# tensions with Iran increase.

For that, we turn to Paul Salem, the president and## CEO of the Middle East Institute.

That's# Thank you for being with us.

Mr. Salem, how do you in Israel's former defense minister,# current member of Israel's war cabinet, who is clearly warning about the potential# for military escalation against Hezbollah?

PAUL SALEM, President and CEO, Middle East# Institute: Well, there's been tension between## Israel and Hezbollah from the Re cent reporting indicated that the U.S.# talked Israel down from a preemptive## attack on Hezbollah early in those days.# This tension is coming back center stage.## And the Israelis have made it very clear to the# Americans and to the world that they want some## resolution to parts of the situation on their# northern border with Hezbollah and Lebanon.

Otherwise, they will take military action,# or at least that's what they're threatening.

GEOFF BENNETT: Is Israel capable of starting# and maintaining a two-front war right no PAUL SALEM: Yes, I believe it is# capable of doing that.

Obviously,## that would take a lot of# manpower and a lot of effort.

I think, particularly as they maybe transition# their war in Gaza to a more fo a more targeted campaign, they might have# the capacity to open a second front.

But## the challenge is that Hezbollah has so# much firepower that it could unleash on## Israeli economic infrastructure, civilian# infrastructure, the energy infrastructure,## including offshore gas operations that the# calculation is really not so much can they## wage a war as, rather, can they bear# the brunt and the cost of such a war?

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, tell# us more about Hezbollah's## military capabilities.

What PA UL SALEM: The last war between Israel# and Hezbollah was in 2006, so 17 years ago.

But, since then, Iran has resupplied Hezbollah# with a much larger and a much more accurate## arsenal of missiles, estimated to be well more# than 100,000 missiles.

These are positioned in## various parts of the country.

And they are --# because many of them are precision missiles,## according to reports that one sees from the U.S.# or Israel or elsewhere, that they are able to## target very critical infrastructure in Israel,# as well as civilian infrastructure as well.

And although Israel has an# effective Iron Dome defense system,## that can catch a large number of# missiles, but certainly not all.

GEOFF BENNETT: Does Hezbollah, in your estimation,## want a war?

What is it trying# to sig PAUL SALEM: Hezbollah definitely does# not want a full-scale war, nor does Iran.

Hezbollah has made it clear after the# Hamas attacks on Israel and after the## Israeli attacks on Gaza that it will# maintain a limited level of engagement## or hostility across the border.

In their# telling, it is to pin down some of the## Israeli forces in the north in order# to relieve, as it were, their allies.

And, indeed, they are their allies, Hamas# in the Gaza Strip.

But they have also made## it clear that they do not want a full-scale# escalation or a full-scale war.

Israel also## probably does not want a full-scale war.# The U.S. as well does not want it.

So,## all the parties, I think, are scrambling to find# a way forward, while avoiding a full-scale war.

GEOFF BENNETT: Well, on that point, as# you mentioned the potential path forward,## the U.S. appears determined to find a long-term# political solution to the Is In your view, is that even possible right now?

PAUL SALEM: For the Israel-Hamas conflict,# which that is certainly a very, very# complicated and difficult pathway forward.

It's noteworthy to say that the American# governments and the Israeli governments## are on opposite pages.

The current Israeli# government led by Prime Minister Netanyahu,## which has a lot of the right wing, their plan is# to basically consolidate their occupation of the## West Bank and Gaza, whereas the American plan# is to get over the Gaza war and move towards## open negotiation towards a two-state solution,# so really very different trajectories there.

GEOFF BENNETT: What would the U.S. role# be if -- and we should emphasize the word## if -- this war between Israel and Hamas# escalates into a wider regional conflict?

PAUL SALEM: Well, the U.S. has already made## it clear that that is something# U. S. diplomats, led by Mr. Amos Hochstein, have# been visiting at least Lebanon, li kely place where the conflict could spread,# in order to negotiate between the Israelis and## Hezbollah to avoid a second front to this war,# which would be a front between Israel and Lebanon.

Yemen and the Houthi movement there, which is also# allied with Iran, has been a place where there's## been attacks from the Houthis on shipping along# the Red Sea.

So far, it's been fairly limited.## The U.S. has led a naval operation there to# protect shipping, and most shipping has resumed.

So that is largely, I would say, being# managed.

It's noteworthy that escalation## has not reached the Persian Gulf# itself, which is where much of## the world's energy is exported from.# So far, that remains to be the case.

GEOFF BENNETT: Paul Salem is president# and CEO of the Middle East Institute.

Thank you for your insights this evening.

PAUL SALEM: Thank you.