PBS News Hour

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Sreenivasan

FOR MORE ON THE SITUATION IN VENEZUELA, THE ROLE OF RUSSIA AND THE U.S., AND HOW OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE REGION ARE RESPONDING, WE'RE JOINED NOW BY CHRISTOPHER SABATINI, AN ADJUNCT PROFESSOR AT COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY AND EDITOR OF THE ONLINE PUBLICATION, "GLOBAL AMERICANS." SO, REGIME CHANGE IS NOT EASY. CALLING ON YOUR SUPPORTERS TO GO OUT AND TRY TO CONVINCE THE MILITARY THAT'S STANDING IN YOUR WAY TO DROP THEIR WEAPONS AND JOIN YOU, THAT'S WHAT JUAN GUAIDO WAS TRYING ALL WEEK. DIDN'T WORK. >> IT DIDN'T WORK. AND A LARGE PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE THIS MILITARY IN ITS OFFICER CLASS IS DEEPLY TIED TO MADURO. IT'S DEEPLY TIED TO CORRUPT NETWORKS, TO NARCOTICS TRAFFICKING. YOU KNOW, IF THIS REGIME FALLS, MANY OF THEM FACE PRISON AND POSSIBLE EXTRADITION. SO, THEY'RE TIED NOT OUT OF ANY PERSONAL LOYALTY OR ANY SORT OF IDEOLOGICAL LOYALTY TO MADURO. THEY'RE TIED TO HIM BECAUSE THEY'RE PART OF THIS LARGER NARCO STATE THAT HAS EMERGED IN VENEZUELA. AND SO, GETTING THEM TO FLIP IS NOT GOING TO BE EASY. AND ON TOP OF THAT, YOU DO HAVE CUBAN AND RUSSIAN ADVISERS IN THERE WHO ARE BACKING THEM AND ADVISING THEM. SO, IT WAS A RISKY GAMBLE, AND IT CERTAINLY DIDN'T PAY OFF. >> WAS THERE A MISCALCULATION ON THE PART OF U.S. INTELLIGENCE TO THINK ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF JUAN GUAIDO'S SUPPORT? >> WELL, THERE ARE TWO THEORIES ON THIS. ONE IS THAT MAYBE THIS WAS ALL STAGED BY CUBAN INTELLIGENCE INTERESTS AND THE RUSSIANS TO BASICALLY FLUSH OUT WHO WERE DISLOYAL... DISLOYAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE MADURO GOVERNMENT. SO, IT'S ALL A SETUP. AND SOME PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT. AND THAT'S REALLY PART AND PARCEL TO WHAT CUBA HAS DONE WITHIN ITS OWN COUNTRY FOR DECADES NOW. THERE'S ALSO THIS IDEA THAT BASICALLY GUAIDO MAY HAVE OVERPLAYED HIS HAND, THAT THIS DESIRE TO SEE REGIME CHANGE, AS ONE FORMER ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL PUT IT, HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY. THAT'S REALLY ALL THEY HAD AND THIS SENSE THAT, WELL, THESE NEGOTIATIONS ARE ONGOING. THIS TIME IT WILL WORK. IT'S BEEN THREE TIMES NOW THAT GUAIDO HAS CALLED PEOPLE TO THE STREETS, CALLED FOR THE MILITARY TO DEFECT OR FLIP AGAINST MADURO, AND IT HASN'T WORKED. SO, HE'S DEALING WITH LESS AND LESS POLITICAL CAPITAL EACH TIME HE DOES THIS. >> JUST THIS WEEK, WE HAD A CALL BETWEEN VLADIMIR PUTIN OF RUSSIA AND DONALD TRUMP. BOTH SIDES CONFIRM THIS ONE PART, WHICH IS THAT THEY TALKED ABOUT VENEZUELA. IN THE READ-OUT FROM MOSCOW, IT SAID THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN HAD SAID, "YOU KNOW WHAT? IT'S VENEZUELA AND ONLY VENEZUELA THAT CAN DETERMINE ITS FUTURE." >> YEAH, THIS IS WHERE TRUMP IS IN MANY WAYS GETTING CROSSWAVES WITH HIS OWN CABINET. BOLTON, JOHN BOLTON, THE NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER, AND MIKE POMPEO HAVE BOTH MENTIONED THE PRESENCE OF CUBANS AND RUSSIANS. POMPEO HIMSELF SAID IN AN INTERVIEW JUST YESTERDAY AND EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT, BUT FOR THE RUSSIANS, MADURO WAS READY TO HOP ON A FLIGHT AND GO SEEK EXILE IN CUBA. AND TRUMP COMES OUT AND SAYS, "NO, PUTIN AND I WANT WHAT'S BEST... IN THE BEST INTEREST FOR VENEZUELA." SO, IT ISN'T REALLY CLEAR. TRUMP HAS PRETTY MUCH GIVEN BOLTEN CARTE BLANCHE TO MANAGE THE POLICY TOWARDS VENEZUELA, BUT IT ISN'T REALLY CLEAR THAT HE REALLY HAS SORT OF THE FORCE TO BE ABLE TO MAKE A REGIME FLIP IN THE WAY THAT HE DESIRES. >> WHAT ABOUT THE COUNTRIES IN THE REGION? HOW DO THEY SEE ALL OF THIS? >> THERE'S A GROUP OF LATIN AMERICAN GOVERNMENTS THAT INCLUDES URUGUAY AND PERU AND CHILI AND MEXICO AND COLOMBIA CALLED THE "GROUP OF LIMA." THEY ACTUALLY HAVE COME OUT ENDORSING GUAIDO AND HAVE CRITICIZED THE MADURO GOVERNMENT. BUT THEY HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SILENT. IT'S BEEN THE UNITED STATES WHO HAS MOSTLY EMPLOYED SANCTIONS, REALLY TOUGH SANCTIONS. CANADA AND THE E.U. HAVE DONE SOME. BUT WITHIN THE REGION, THEY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE BIT MORE RETICENT TO EMPLOY SANCTIONS, AND THEY'VE BEEN VERY CRITICAL OF ANY TALK OF A U.S. MILITARY INTERVENTION. AND THEY SAID, "THAT WE CAN'T TOLERATE." >> ALL RIGHT. CHRISTOPHER SABATINI, THANKS SO MUCH. >> THANKS VERY MUCH.