Here & Now

UW Professor Analyzes Impeachment Messaging

Frederica Freyberg:

The impeachment process is a dizzying display of partisan divide in our country and our state. In tonight’s closer look, an expert on elections, media, American politics, the presidency, political communication, political behavior and public opinion. He should be able to sort this out. UW-Madison Professor of Journalism Mike Wagner joins us. Sorry to go on and on like that, but you are the expert in all those things and more.

Mike Wagner:

Yikes, thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:

How much do you think the average Wisconsin voter is tuning into this so-called impeachment showdown?

Mike Wagner:

Well, I think maybe a little bit more than before because some official things have started to happen. So I think people are a little more in tune to it. Change is starting to happen. More Wisconsinites are becoming favorable toward impeachment but still more Wisconsinites are not on board with that as compared to not being on board. I would say the average person is still probably seeing this through the lens of their partisanship and following what elites on their side are saying about President Trump and what should happen to him next.

Frederica Freyberg:

In fact, my next question was do you think that as this progresses, potentially, that this will change the mind of some Trump voters in terms of voting for him?

Mike Wagner:

I think it depends upon what we learn about President Trump throughout this process. I think if we learn much of what’s already been reported, I think people have already then made up their minds about President Trump and those who like him will continue to like him and think this process is unfair. And those who have opposed him will see this as evidence that they were right to oppose him. If we learn more or if there’s more opportunities for more people to explain why the charges against him are problematic for someone in the position of the presidency, that might change some opinions among some Republicans or independents who just honestly, right now are maybe ambivalent or just torn.

Frederica Freyberg:

How resonant do you think the argument on the part of the GOP is that this is just an attempt by Democrats to undo the results of the 2016 election?

Mike Wagner:

The Constitution outlines a process for impeachment. The founders always thought this should be something that should happen. It is not undoing an election. It is in fact doing the Constitutional duty of the House of Representatives. They may ultimately decide they should not impeach the president, but it’s not trying to undo the results of the election. It’s not like Hillary Clinton becomes president if President Trump was impeached and removed. That would really undo the results of the election. Mike Pence, Republican, would become president of the United States.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you believe that voters think of Rudy Giuliani’s so-called shadow diplomacy as no big deal? Or, again, is this just the way the partisan mindset works?

Mike Wagner:

I don’t think that the average voter has been able to learn enough about that behavior to know much more than was it on my side or not. The more we learn about that, which I presume we might in the impeachment inquiry, the more some voters may decide that that’s really particularly troubling because it’s foreign policy being negotiated outside of the apparatus of the executive branch. Really it’s outside of what the Department of State might do or the Department of Defense or the Department of Homeland Security or other relevant departments that engage in foreign policy making. So it could be that the more we learn, the more troubling people’s attitudes become toward it. Or it could be that it was much ado about less than we currently think.

Frederica Freyberg:

Is President Trump’s kind of fighting style attractive to voters potentially, despite the facts?

Mike Wagner:

Again, I would say it’s attractive to his voters. I don’t think it’s attractive to everyone. I think that his strategy to create a cacophony of stories and accusations and wild tweets and statements that are not true are designed to win the short-term news cycle. And the way that impeachment is different is that it’s a long process. President Trump has not really had to go through a long process of a meticulous case being built against him. The Mueller Report was sort of that way but it wasn’t a set of hearings that lasted for months on end. It was drip, drip, drip with some leaks here and there. Then the release of the report and then Mueller comes to Congress but then it sort of stopped. This is something that could go on for a very long time in a sustained way that wouldn’t stop and his strategy may be less effective against that or it may be constantly effective as it has been in turning people’s attention away from the objectionable issue and turning it to the next thing the president wants us to focus on.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you feel as though this is almost entirely his strategy and that there isn’t a concerted effort?

Mike Wagner:

I don’t know that there’s a set of meetings where they agree on exactly what the president’s going to be tweeting or saying at a news conference or saying as he stands out by the helicopter before it takes off. I think those often come as shocks to his staff, it’s been reported, shocks to Republican leadership and others. And so it seems that so far the strategy for most Republican leaders has been to first say, “I didn’t hear what he said.” And then after they’ve had time to talk about it, end up supporting the president.

Frederica Freyberg:

What is it about the kind of forever-growing partisan divide that make people on both sides cover their ears and shield their eyes in favor of talking points on the part of their favorite party?

Mike Wagner:

I think we’ve all become a little too quick to dismiss any problem with what we might colloquially call “what about-ism.” So, something objectionable is raised about Republicans. And they say, “Oh, what about President Clinton did something else that might be something similar to that. Or a Democrat gets accused of something and the Democrats say, “Well, what about President Trump and all of the things he’s doing.” Rather than just saying this behavior is not okay. Let us address it. People are too quick, I think, to put on their home team colors and defend their side and begin attacking the other.

Frederica Freyberg:

Professor Mike Wagner, thanks very much.

Mike Wagner:

My pleasure.