Here & Now

Michael Wagner Analyzes Walker's Inauguration Speech

Frederica Freyberg:

That was Zac Schultz reporting. The cat does seem to be fully out of the bag. Scott Walker has reportedly hired a national GOP consultant toward a presidential run and will speak at the Iowa Freedom Summit later this month, where many would-be Republican candidates will also appear. We get a fix now on the contender from the Badger state from Michael Wagner, an elections expert and assistant professor of the School of Journalism and Mass Communication at UW-Madison. Professor, thanks very much for being here.

Michael Wagner:

It’s my pleasure.

Frederica Freyberg:

So this pretty much seems to nail it in, these two things, Iowa and the consultant. It seems, you know, it’s all over but for the official kind of announcement on the governor’s part. But does he even do that at this point, or how does this go?

Michael Wagner:

I don’t think he does it at this point, but I certainly think that if he decides to run, which it looks like he’s going to be doing. And not a lot of people form these committees and then decide, oh, I've explored and I won’t be running. And so, you know, if he does decide to run, he’ll want to have a major announcement where there’s a lot of flags and family and bunting and cheering crowds and a news cycle or two to kind of propel him out of the box. Especially because he's one of the candidates with less national name recognition than some of the other folks who look like they’re running.

Frederica Freyberg:

Although that looks to be ramping up, really, almost just since the inauguration, the national kind of look at him.

Michael Wagner:

Yeah. Some of the national media are starting to give Governor Walker a little more scrutiny, and he’s starting to get more attention. Hiring Rick Wiley from the Republican National Committee is a move that shows he’s serious about running, and will start to get him more attention as well.

Frederica Freyberg:

He finds himself, obviously as you know, in a crowded field. How do you think he fares amidst the likes of Jeb Bush?

Michael Wagner:

Well, I don’t think he’s in the Jeb Bush/Chris Christie tier in terms of national recognition and a base of donors across the country that are really important to winning the Republican nomination, donors and party activists. So Governor Walker, should he run, will really need to kind of beef up that kind of element of a campaign. And that’s where the guy he just hired kind of comes in. In terms of kind of the second tier of candidates, Governor Walker’s near the top. He’s a governor, he’s won re-election, he’s done so in a blue state. You know, those are all things that he’ll certainly discuss.

Frederica Freyberg:

What about his friend, Paul Ryan? Do you suppose there’s a pact kind of between them with Ryan giving Walker his blessing?

Michael Wagner:

That’s a question for them. But Walker has said he wouldn’t run if Paul Ryan ran, and so he may well know something that we don’t. With Congressman Ryan’s position on the house Ways and Means committee as chair, that’s a pretty powerful position in congress, and that’s tough to leave. You can’t run for president and be in that position.

Frederica Freyberg:

So talking about all of the GOP potential hopefuls for the presidential run, who, in your mind, comes right out of the chutes as looking most like the very front-runner?

Michael Wagner:

On the Republican side, I think Jeb Bush and Chris Christie are probably the two that have the best chance to win if they decide to run. They’re the most well-known, they have a strong national base, Jeb Bush probably a little stronger than Governor Christie’s. But they’re known commodities. Christie got vetted to be vice-president in the last go-around and so he’s been through that kind of a process before and has weathered some scandals. You know, the Bush family name is well-known. The Republicans haven’t won the White House without a Bush on the ticket since 1972. So that's an important advantage for him.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you fell as though Scott Walker is at all hurt by his lack of college degree or lack of foreign policy experience?

Michael Wagner:

Well, the knock on governors is always a lack of foreign policy experience. And so thats something that Bill Clinton was able to overcome and George W. Bush was able to overcome in their bids for the White House. The lack of college education, he’d be the first president, I believe, since Harry Truman without a college degree. But that’s also one of the things Governor Walker has used as kind of a reason to give him a second look. You know, most Americans don’t have a college degree. And he went to college for some time, as many Americans do, didn’t finish and went on to a very successful career. He’s also talked about wanting to finish, which may well be something he does in the next year or two if he wants to run.

Frederica Freyberg:

And very briefly, finally, what is Hillary Clinton waiting for?

Michael Wagner:

I think she’s waiting to see who else might be getting in, and she’s also, you know, has to decide, do I really want to do this again? This is a huge enterprise, and running for president twice when you didn’t win the first time is a difficult thing to do. But also, if she gets in, she’ll suck up a lot of the oxygen on the Democratic side and she doesn’t need to get in as early as some of these other folks do.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Professor Wagner, thanks very much.

Michael Wagner:

My pleasure.