Here & Now

Charles Franklin on Polling Wisconsin's Budget Surplus Deal

Frederica Freyberg:
The deal between Republican legislative leaders and Governor Tony Evers to use surplus dollars to reduce property taxes, increase school funding and give out tax rebates, failed in colossal fashion when most Democrats voted against it, and Republican candidate for governor, Tom Tiffany, blasted the bill ahead of the vote. But when asked, most people across the state said they were for it. A new Marquette Law School poll found 80% of Wisconsin adults say the Legislature should have passed the measure. Poll director Charles Franklin is here with more. And thanks very much for being here.

Charles Franklin:
Thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:
So have you ever conducted a poll with across-the-board bipartisan results on any issue like this?

Charles Franklin:
There are a few, but they’re really rare. And on this one, with the 80% in favor – that was 77% of Republicans, 81% of independents, 82% of Democrats. That is really an incredibly narrow range across party. And it’s also the same across ideology – 78% of liberals, 78% of conservatives and statewide, in every media market in the state, it’s in the high 70s or 80s in support of the bill.

Frederica Freyberg:
What do you think was most resonant about why people wanted this?

Charles Franklin:
Well, I think the fundamental thing is that it gives something that everybody wants at least a piece of. In our other polling this year, we’ve seen concern about reducing property taxes is high, with funding for special education is a 70% in favor of that. And who doesn’t want a check for $300 or $600 to a couple? So there are popular elements there. I think the other thing that’s less obvious is that this is a kind of old-fashioned compromise where everybody got something, and it’s all about the good things you’re getting rather than the bad things. The conflict in politics and in the Capitol may have made it hard for that compromise to carry over in the actual votes, where you saw both some Republicans and all Democrats in the Senate voting no. That that inability to reach a compromise and stick to it is much easier for the public to see this as a reasonable outcome, maybe harder for legislators.

Frederica Freyberg:
So in your polling, you referenced the potential fiscal impact, but you surveyed people before the Legislative Fiscal Bureau actually put a specific $2.9 billion number on a potential projected deficit as a result of this. Do you think if you had that specific number, it would have changed the results?

Charles Franklin:
It might have changed it a little bit. That report came out after we were already in the field, so it was too late to incorporate it. But we did ask a separate question that said, some opponents have said this is fiscally irresponsible. Do you think it would be better to wait until we have a better picture of next year’s budget, or pass it now, even if that means a potential future budget deficit? It was still 69% saying it should be passed now, just 21% say wait until later. So having that information, those real doubts about the fiscal situation did lower support by 11 points, but it still left more than two-thirds in favor and again, across the board, Republican, independent and Democrats still wanted it to happen now.

Frederica Freyberg:
Back to your results, how surprising is it that usual party politics kind of don’t apply here?

Charles Franklin:
Yeah, it’s very surprising because so little that we see in state politics is bipartisan this way. I think part of what’s going on is you had an odd combination of bipartisan support for the bill – Governor Evers and Republican leadership – but you also had bipartisan opposition -Tom Tiffany’s opposition, most of the Democratic candidates either were outright opposed or were very lukewarm about the bill. And as we saw in the vote split, there were three Republicans in the Senate, enough to sink the bill without Democratic support, and all Democrats opposed. So you had both bipartisan support and bipartisan opposition. So what’s a partisan to do when they’re sent such conflicting messages? And the result was just almost no difference in how the parties felt about the bill.

Frederica Freyberg:
Now there is the piece about Governor Evers not working with his Democratic caucus on this, and then they mostly vote against it. What do you make of Evers’ play in this legislation?

Charles Franklin:
I think that’s a politically stunning result. Not one that most voters pay that much attention to day in and day out, but it surfaces the fact that for seven and a half years, Evers has really had to deal with the Republican majorities in the Legislature. The Democratic minority could do very little to help him, though it was vital for passing the most recent budget, for example. But he just hasn’t been forced politically to work with the Democrats in the Legislature. But this was really surprising that his party would desert him so completely on, you know, the sort of capstone bill of his term as governor.

Frederica Freyberg:
You asked the question in your poll whether positions on this bill will affect the November elections. Will it?

Charles Franklin:
25% said it would be very important for their fall vote. I take that with a grain of salt. Fall is still a good ways away, but what I think we can be certain of is that the issues of property tax, funding for schools, those things are going to be at the center of our fall campaigns even if voters have completely forgotten about this bill, and I’m not sure that they will forget about the bill. But how do you sell that you’re for property tax relief, you’re for school funding, if both parties took such ambiguous stands on this budget bill.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Charles Franklin:
Thank you.