Amanpour and Company

Brianna: Turning to the poor in Ukraine there are new signs that the battle is creeping across the border into Russian territory.

The Kremlin is calling the situation in the bow outreach and alarming after a massive strike wounded four people.

It comes just a day after drone attacks damaged civilian buildings in the heart of Moscow.

So far, Russia has relied heavily on the Wagner group in their war efforts, but who are they and what is their relationship with the Kremlin?

Professor Candace Ron do is an expert on Putin's alleged private army and joins us to discuss this.

>> Welcome to the show.

>> There have been joint attacks in Moscow this week, are those done by the Ukrainian military and likewise, are the drone attacks in Kyiv being done by the Russian military?

>> There is a lot we don't know about the recent drone attacks in Moscow and around that area, certainly there are reasons to suspect Ukrainian forces of some sort are behind the attacks, a good reason to believe that is the attacks that we saw in the town of Belgrade -- Belgorod, and there seems to be a dual track approach, penetrating beyond Russian borders deep inside as a means of sending a message to the population as well as the politicians who are responsible for the work in the Kremlin.

-- war in the criminal.

We have a lot to learn about what happened there, and there are questions as to whether this is a false flag operation that the chemic -- the Kremlin has created as a way of previewing or link the political groundwork for a major mobilization, and there may be if all sales open mobilization according to rumors where conscripts as well as officers and active reservists would be called into force.

There's a sign that there are serious challenges for Russia in terms of their own internal security, which is increasingly becoming a problem for the criminal.

>> You are an expert on the Wegner group.

A private parent military group run by Goshen -- a mercenary leader.

He seems to be inconsistent in his allegiance.

It's plain what the situation is as they pulled out of parts of Ukraine -- explain what the situation is as they Paul out of parts of Ukraine?

>> They are not private in the classic sense.

A lot of people have compared them to Blackwater, the American PMC that acted in Iraq during the squares crisis back in 2007.

They are different in the sense that they get their supplies from the Ministry of defense and think contracts from the Ministry of Defense and they serve state enterprises like the big arms dealers and power companies, and the flow of weapons and men and material and their missions come from the Russian state.

To call them private is not really the best way to describe them.

>> Is it true that Putin has control over them or not?

>> Certainly has control over them in the sense that the minute the Ministry of Defense decides that they no longer want to supply Prigozhin's forces is the minute they become an inoperable force.

There is an interdependency between the Ministry of Defense and the Wegner group, but your question about Prigozhin is important, is this important -- judgment becoming a rogue force within Russia?

Certainly his very loud critiques of the Minister of defense as well as the Chief of Army staff, the criticism about the lack of ammunition, support, the lack of men, the inability of the entire country to mobilize behind this war effort, Prigozhin's complaint about that are in some ways well-founded -- complaints are in some ways well-founded from a soldiers perspective.

But he is also doing something that Putin would also like to be able to say but is politically constrained from doing so.

We cannot have the president of Russia saying that this more effort is going terribly, who is responsible, who is in charge of this war when we all know that he is.

Prigozhin in a way aligns with what Putin wants to say openly and we should always be thinking and hearing when we listen to his critiques a little bit of Putin.

But I will say that is more recent comments about the risks of revolutionary movement in response to the poor coronation of this war and the poor handling of this war, those should be taken seriously.

We have never seen at least not in the last 30 years or so since the end of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan back in 1979, we will not see the moment in Russian history where we have potentially constant -- hundreds of thousands if not millions of Russian men coming back from the front broken, wounded in some cases addicted, I think that this is a repeat of history and we are in a very dangerous point in terms of the trajectory of stability and pressure going forward.

>> There -- in Russia going for it.

>> There was a statement that he would not participate in a coup, but instead of a strong denial he said he did not think he would be able to pull it off.

That seems like a frightening thing to say.

And he even suggested that the Russian military might do a coup against Rush -- Putin.

Why is he getting so comfortable with him?

>> I have a slightly different interpretation that is slightly counterintuitive.

My sense is that is a warning about anyone trying to pull it off from Putin directly.

Anyone who is thinking that this is may be an opportune moment to come at the Kremlin with a coup and some sort of internal push either from inside Moscow or outside Moscow, I think that Prigozhin is wagging his finger and saying don't even think about it.

He is saying that on behalf of Putin.

>> You say that Prigozhin is just channeling Putin.

He is saying what Putin wishes that he could say in public.

He said somehow nothing is working out for us in Ukraine.

He said one of the strongest in the world militaries, meaning the Russian military, has been transformed and weakened.

He said that we are unable to defend the country and that the generals were trying to deceive Putin.

Do you think that he believes all of that?

>> I think there is a good logic for Putin now to kind of start listening to different types of messages.

I think the most important thing to understand is that Prigozhin is not wrong.

Unfortunately.

And he is not the only one on the far right in Russia today who is making the assessment that Russia was ill-prepared for this war and that the military generals who assured Putin ahead of the invasion that everything would be OK somehow they maybe misled Putin on some level.

I think that assessment seems to be correct.

And I don't think there is anything to contradict that evidence right now.

At the same time, it is possible to consider that the inter-factional rivalry has gotten to the point where some elements within the military and the intelligence services feels it is now time to express extremes.

-- feel it is now time to express extremes.

We need to turn things around and get some sort of secured victory, even if.

Victory over Ukraine.

-- Stephen A.

Can victory over Ukraine.

Goshen -- Prigozhin is not the only person saying this.

He is saying it louder and more effectively, he has been more conscientious a student of media relations and he understands how to plant a message and how to capture people's imaginations, that has been his great success and to some degree that is why Putin chose him as this kind of new spokesman or interlocutory for the kind of martial general for the war.

At the same time, it is worrying that the script that we are hearing from Prigozhin in the far right is becoming increasingly more shrill and the criticism of the generals and Putin is starting to actually fight.

-- bite.

It says that a extreme ultranationalist faction is starting to gain the political upperhand.

This does not mean that Putin will suddenly now encounter a coup, but it does mean that he is deeply constrained by that element, which is to say he has to answer to those critiques and he has to find a way to counter them before the narrative gets ahead of him.

>> If he has to counter the narrative of ultranationalist, those who express real dismay at the Russian military, but would that mean, a full mobilization, full invasion, use of tactical nuclear weapons, how far could they go?

>> Unfortunately, Putin is in a no-win situation.

I think he was in a no-win situation before he even started and that is why he started the war.

Unfortunately for global stability, there really is not an offramp.

There is not a quick peck -- path to victory here.

We will not see the full outcome of the mobilization until sometime next year.

What that should tell everybody who is watching what is happening with Russia and the Ukraine -- and Ukraine, wondering what is the impact on energy prices and inflation, everyone should be clear that this war will not be over tomorrow or next year, it will not be over until there is true resolution to put down the weapons and stop the fight.

And we don't see any signs of that anytime soon.

And I think whatever happens we are very much on the escalatory path right now.

>> The Weiner group was founded by a soldier who had swastikas and Nancy tattoos on -- Nazi tattoos on.

It is often claimed to be a Neo-Nazi groups.

>> There is a large contingent that seems to be very attracted to the idea of white supremacy, and that is a very troubling part of their organizational drive.

Many people have described the wagoner group as a paramilitary and that is true, they are paramilitary but they are also a social movement which represents a very extreme white nationalist pan-Slavic mentality and ideology that Putin and others would like to see spread across Europe.

And we can see it in Spain.

There were a few that are bombs earlier in 2022 which were attributed to the Russian Imperial faction, linked to the wagoner group.

That is a very frightening pattern.

In some ways, this may seem extreme now but in two years time, we are looking at the early progenitor of an Al Qaeda or ISIS like force in the sense that they extreme positions on social cohesion and their extreme positions on what it takes to run a society, and actually frightening prospect is the idea that movement would start to chic -- seep out of Russia.

And we note that there are a lot of fans of the Weiner group online.

We have tracked that for the last several years and seen how the Weiner group ran on social media -- wagoner group ran a social media, using that neofascist symbolism and culture.

>> You say they are somewhat like Al Qaeda in a way, and just seeping out of Ukraine and Russia into the west of Europe.

Tell us what that portends and whether or not the U.S. should therefore label as a terrorist organization and treated thusly.

>> This has been a big debate in the White House and Washington.

I have been present at many of these conversations.

How do we deal with wagoner, -- the wagoner group, if we cannot categorize them as one thing or another how to be a person.

One thing that is encouraging is that the debate has become more nuance.

This recognition within the White House and other parts of Congress that declaring the wagoner group a foreign terrorist organization would only take us so far in terms of policy.

The biggest risk there is essentially treating an arm of the Russian state as if it were not an arm of the Russian state and that has convocations for things like war crimes accountability, reparation -- reparations and more response abilities.

If you treat them like Al Qaeda, you would not expect Al Qaeda to own their war crimes or be responsible for destruction.

The reality is Wagner Group is a paramilitary cartel.

The White House has come down with the decision of categorizing them as an organized transnational crime group.

So, basically a mafia that is on international steroids which operates worldwide.

That is probably the most appropriate way to go largely because it makes it less controversial for partner states that make -- might have issues about how we fought the war on terrorism and it makes it less controversial for them to go after organized crime figures or entities that help and support the wagoner group in that context.

At the end of the day, the best approach is to really enhance the ability of many partners around the world, beyond Russia and Ukraine and places in Africa where we see them to really go after those supply channels and go after those internal intermediary hubs where we know they are very important for the deployment of weapons and men and to do bad things in countries where there is great instability.

>> You have written about and described sort of horrible war crimes and torture that the Wagner Group does.

Including a man and his whole family in Ukraine.

We see that everywhere they operate.

In Mali in Africa.

Tell us how they are using those terroristic tactics in places like Africa.

>> This is one of the saddest parts of this entire situation, we have just seen countless victims of the wagoner group -- Wagner Group, especially in Mali, where you have large scale extradition killings, mass graves.

-- extrajudicial killings, mass graves.

This has been happening for years, not just as part of this work.

Russian regulars have been imported for the use of torture, illegal detention and so forth and so on.

The psychology here at work, it is important to remember that many of the commanders in the wagoner group -- Wagner Group come from a long line of engagements where they are special forces, Spatz Knotts, deployed to handle problems the Russian military could not.

All of these commanders have, at some stage, spent years and years and years on the front lines, deploying again and again to extreme crisis situations.

They come back, noting knows what their mission is, they cannot talk about it, in some ways they are social outcasts.

In many ways they're suffering from a lot of posttraumatic stress disorder.

That is the reality.

I think what we are seeing in terms of the torture of civilians is not only the indiscipline of this group but something deeper here in terms of the psychology of the commanders.

But it does also reflect on the idea of the Russian military doctrine that civilians just do not matter and it is not as important as territorial control.

That is where we -- they start to privilege their mission status on the control it and what can we do to get it done.

>> Thank you so much for joining us professor.