Amanpour and Company

HELLO EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO "AMANPOUR & CO. "

HERE'S WHAT'S COMING UP.

WE ARE DEALING WITH PEOPLE THAT ARE VERY RATIONAL PEOPLE, THEY WERE NICE TO DEAL WITH.

TRUMP HEAPS PRAISE ON IRANIAN LEADERS.

I SPEAK TO THE AUTHORS OF STOLEN REVOLUTION ABOUT THE LONG HISTORY OF IRANIANS RISING UP FOR CHANGE, ONLY TO SEE THEIR HOPES DASHED, THEN -- WORLD CUP FEVER, WRITER AND SUPER FAN, SIMON KUPER JOINED ME ON THE MAGIC AND THE MADNESS OF THE BIGGEST FOOTBALL SHOW ON EARTH.

PLUS -- WHEN CHINA DECIDES TO TURN OFF YOU KNOW, ITS EXPORTS, THE ENTIRE WORLD SUFFERS.

STANFORD UNIVERSITY'S, ELIZABETH ECONOMY SPEAKS WITH WALTER ISAACSON ABOUT THE GLOBAL GIANT MISSING FROM THIS G7, THE CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING.

> "AMANPOUR & CO. "

IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT , JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS, CANDACE KING WEIR, THE SYLVIA A. AND SIMON B. POYTA TREND 19.

THE STRAUS FAMILY FOUNDATION , THE PETER G PETERSON AND JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND , CHARLES ROSENBLUM, MONIQUE SCHOEN WARSHAW, JOAN GANZ COONEY FUND FOUR, COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM EVERYONE I'M CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR IN LONDON.

DONALD TRUMP'S PUBLIC POSITION IS THAT HIS AGREEMENT WITH IRAN IS GREAT AND BETTER THAN OBAMA'S NUCLEAR DEAL.

HERE WE ARE.

ON SUNDAY WE REACHED AN AGREEMENT WITH IRAN THAT ACHIEVES EVERYTHING WE SET OUT TO ACCOMPLISH.

EVERYTHING I MUCH MORE, ENDING THE CURRENT CONFLICT, REOPENING THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND PREVENTING IRAN FROM EVER OBTAINING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, THAT'S WHAT IT WAS ALL ABOUT.

BUT NUCLEAR TALKS HAVE NOT EVEN HAPPENED YET, AND A RELEASE OF THE MO YOU RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT WHICH SIDE BENEFITS THE MOST AND WHETHER THE UNITED STATES IS BETTER OFF THAN IT WAS BEFORE THE WAR.

AS IT STANDS, THE HOSTILITIES WILL END, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL OPEN AS THE PRESIDENT SAID AND IRAN LOOKS TO GET SANCTIONS RELIEF, SOME, IMMEDIATELY, THROUGH WAIVERS ON ITS OIL EXPORTS, TEHRAN REITERATES IT'LL NOT PRODUCE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, SOMETHING IT SAID BEFORE, AND WHILE THERE ARE NO DETAILS ON HOW THE URANIUM WILL BE DISPOSED OF.

THE PRESENCE OF THE FINAL LANGUAGE COULD CHANGE BEFORE FRIDAY.

AND TO FURTHER MUDDY THE WATERS, TRUMP ADDED THIS TODAY, IF THEY DON'T BEHAVE, I'LL START BOMBING THEIR HEADS AGAIN.

FOR MORE ON ALL THIS, I SPOKE TO THE NEW YORK TIMES DAVID SANGER, JUST BEFORE THE MEMO WAS RELEASED BUT, IT BEARS A STRONG RESEMBLANCE TO WHAT HAD BEEN LEAKED.

DAVID SANGER, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

TRUMP AND YOU SPOKE, HE CALLED YOU AND YOU MADE YOU REPORT ABOUT IT, NOW HE HAS SPOKEN PUBLICLY, HAVING BRIEFED THE ALLIES AND YOU ARE THERE I THINK YOU ARE THERE, YOU BEEN WATCHING IT ANYWAY, AND YOU HEARD HIS PRESS CONFERENCE NO DOUBT.

IN A WORD, CAN YOU TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK THIS MEANS FOR THE US?

WELL, FOR THE UNITED STATES, IT MEANS A RETURN TO THE STATUS QUO, RIGHT, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ WAS OPENED, CHRISTIANE, PRIOR TO THE WAR, IT WAS CLOSED AS A RESULT OF THE WAR, IT WASN'T ONE OF THE CAUSES OF THE WAR, SO, THE PRESIDENT IS RIGHT, WHEN HE SAYS THAT WE WILL GET ARROW --OIL FLOWING AGAIN, ASSUMING THAT IS ALL CARRIED THROUGH BY THE IRANIANS, I'M SURE IT WILL BE BECAUSE THEY WANT TO BE EXPORTING AGAIN.

BUT HE'S NOT CORRECT WHEN HE SAYS THAT THEY'VE ACHIEVED ALL OF THEIR NUCLEAR OBJECTIVES.

THE ONLY ONE THEY'VE ACHIEVED SO FAR IS THE DECLARATION FROM THE IRANIANS THAT THEY HAVE NO INTENTION OF BUILDING A NUCLEAR WEAPON.

THEY FIRST MADE THAT STATEMENT IN 1970 WHEN THEY SIGNED THE NONPROLIFERATION TREATY, THEY SAID IT AGAIN DURING THE OBAMA ERA DEAL KNOWN AS BARBARA HOPE ZUCKERBERG, THE AGREEMENT TO LIMIT THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM, IT'S ON THE FIRST PAGE OF THAT AGREEMENT.

SO, EVERYTHING NOW, HINGES ON WHAT HAPPENS IN NEGOTIATING THIS SECOND, MUCH MORE DIFFICULT AGREEMENT AND FOR THAT, THE PRESIDENT HAS GIVEN UP SOME OF HIS LEVERAGE BECAUSE OIL REVENUE WILL BE FLOWING BACK INTO IRAN , AS SOON AS THE SHIPS BEGAN DELIVERY.

DAVID, YOU KNOW, CERTAIN ANALYSTS, YOURSELF INCLUDED BUT I'M GOING TO QUOTE OTHERS RIGHT NOW, AND PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN AMBASSADORS FOR THE UNITED STATES IN THAT REGION, HAVE BASICALLY SAID IT'S A ONE-SIDED DEAL ACCORDING TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN, AND IN FACT, IT COULD BE A MOU OF --THESE ARE STRONG WORDS, OTHERS ARE CALLING IT A MAJOR STRATEGIC DEFEAT FOR THE U. S. BECAUSE IT GIVES A LOT OF UPFRONT WEIGHT TO IRAN'S DEMANDS INCLUDING RESPECTING THEIR SOVEREIGNTY , THEY SAY THEY WANT A GUARANTEE OF NO MORE WAR AGAINST THEM BY THE U. S.

OR IN FACT, ISRAEL, INCLUDING THIS ISSUE WE'VE JUST BEEN TALKING ABOUT ABOUT, SANCTIONS AND OIL, AND THE LIKE, AND RESPECTING EACH OTHER'S TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.

HOW DO YOU READ ALL OF THAT?

WELL , THE RESPECTING THE TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY DOESN'T COST EITHER SIDE VERY MUCH TO SAY THAT, WHETHER THEY WILL EXECUTE ON IT IS ANOTHER THING.

WHEN THE PRESIDENT CALLED ON SUNDAY, AND I WAS IN LONDON AT THAT MOMENT.

I HAD NOT EXPECTED THE CALL, HE MADE THE ARGUMENT THAT THE IRANIANS ONLY GET BENEFITS INCLUDING THE UNFREEZING OF FUNDS AND THE LIFTING OF SANCTIONS AS THEY PERFORM ON THE DEAL BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN WHAT THE BENCHMARKS ARE SET TO BE, AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL BEGIN TO BENEFIT AS I MENTIONED BEFORE, IN THE BIGGEST WAY, WHICH IS TO SAY RESUMED ACCESS TO THE OIL MARKETS, ALMOST RIGHT AWAY, BEFORE THEY'VE DONE THAT 60 DAY NEGOTIATION .

AND THAT LEAVES THE PRESIDENT IN A VERY RISKY SPOT, BECAUSE, IT'S VERY POSSIBLE, IT'S PROBABLE, THAT THE IRANIANS, WILL DRAG OUT THIS NEGOTIATION, IT'S AN EXTRAORDINARILY COMPLEX ONE.

WE LEARNED THAT WHEN WE COVERED THE OBAMA ERA NEGOTIATION, THAT TOOK YOUR NUMBER, A YEAR AND A HALF, WE SPENT A LOT OF TIME TOGETHER, WAITING IN A HOTEL ROOM LOBBY FOR PEOPLE TO COME OUT FROM THE NEGOTIATIONS, AND IT TOOK A YEAR AND A HALF BECAUSE OF THE COMPLEXITY OF DEALING WITH INSPECTION, WHETHER YOU CLOSE ALL OF THE NUCLEAR FACILITIES, WHETHER IRAN CAN BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE TO ENRICH EVEN AT LOW LEVELS, WHETHER OR NOT THE STOCKPILE GETS SHIPPED OUT OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH THE PRESIDENT DIDN'T SOUND VERY URGENT ABOUT YESTERDAY.

AND, THAT'S ALL THE HARD STUFF THAT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS, IN FACT, BETTER OR WORSE THAN WHAT OBAMA NEGOTIATED.

YEAH, I WONDER WHAT YOUR GUT INSTINCT IS ON THAT BECAUSE PRESIDENT TRUMP IS MAKING ALL SORTS OF CLAIMS THAT IT IS MUCH BETTER AND BIGGER AND ALL THE REST OF IT.

WE KNOW IT WAS PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHU WHO DID PERSUADE HIM TO PULL OUT OF THE JCPOA, AND WHO'S NOW BEEN LEFT OUT OF THIS FINAL NEGOTIATING PROCESS, AND IS NOT HAPPY ABOUT IT, AND PRESIDENT TRUMP IS EVEN USING SOME, I HAVEN'T REALLY HEARD HIM SAY THIS KIND OF THING, AGAINST AN ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER, I HAVEN'T HEARD OTHER U. S. PRESIDENT SAY, EITHER BUT NOT VERY COMPLEMENTARY TO WHAT IS THEIR SPECIALIST RELATIONSHIP, EITHER THEIR MOST SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL.

WHERE DO YOU THINK THAT PART OF IT WILL STAND?

CHRISTIANE, WHEN THE HISTORY OF THIS WHOLE PAST FOUR MONTHS IS WRITTEN, I THINK ONE OF THE MOST FASCINATING PARTS WILL BE HOW TIED TOGETHER NETANYAHU AND TRUMP WERE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PROCESS.

IT WAS NETANYAHU AND THE HEAD OF THE ASSANGE, WHO CONVINCED THE PRESIDENT TO COME IN AND JOIN THE ATTACKS, LEAD THE ATTACKS, THEY BRIEFED IN THE SITUATION ROOM, THE ISRAELI DID THAT THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT WOULD COLLAPSE IN A FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS A PLAN ABOUT HOW THE KURDS WOULD COME IN AND BEGIN TO ATTACK THE GOVERNMENT, HOW THEY MIGHT REPLACE THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT WITH A PREVIOUS IRANIAN HARD-LINE PRESIDENT BUT ONE THEY THOUGHT THEY COULD CONTROL, NONE OF THAT CAME TO PASS.

SO YOU HAVE TO WONDER IF AT THIS POINT, THE PRESIDENT'S VIEW IS THAT NETANYAHU LED HIM DOWN THE WRONG PATH .

WE WILL WAIT TO SEE, RIGHT NOW IT IS BEING DESCRIBED EXACTLY AS THAT, A STRATEGIC DEFEAT FOR ISRAEL OR NETANYAHU AND ONE FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP AS WELL BUT AS YOU SAID, LET'S WAIT AND SEE WHERE THE NEGOTIATIONS GO, DAVID SINGER THANK YOU SO MUCH.

NOW, DESPITE ENCOURAGING THE IRANIAN PEOPLE RIGHT FROM THE GET GO TO RISE UP AT THE START OF THE YEAR, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS LOST INTEREST APPARENTLY IN TOPPLING THE IRANIAN REGIME.

I THINK THEY ARE SMART.

I THINK THEY'RE VERY SMART, I THINK THEY ARE FAR LESS RADICALIZED, AND I THINK THEY ARE REALLY, GOOD, THEY LOVE THEIR COUNTRY, YOU KNOW, YOU TALK ABOUT REGIME CHANGE, NOBODY WILL SAY THAT BUT I GUESS, ONE SET OF LEADERS IS ALL GONE, THE SECOND SET OF LEADERS IS ALL GONE, THEIR THIRD SET OF LEADERS IS A LITTLE BIT GONE BUT FOR THE MOST PART, AND FRANKLY, I THINK REGIME CHANGE, I THINK THEY WILL BEHAVE MUCH DIFFERENTLY, I THINK THEY SEE A DIFFERENT WAY OF LIFE.

NOW, THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO MANY ANALYST ASSESSMENTS THAT THE IRANIAN REGIME LEFT IN PLACE IS MORE HARD-LINE AND MORE MILITARIZED THAN BEFORE.

FOR THOSE HOPING TO SEE A MORE DEMOCRATIC AND FREE IRAN, IT'S A GRIM YET FAMILIAR CYCLE AS THOSE HOPES ARE CRUSHED ONCE AGAIN.

IN THEIR NEW BOOK, STOLEN REVOLUTION, JOURNALISTS, YEGANEH TORBATI AND BOZORGMEHR SHARAFEDIN TRACE THE ARC OF HISTORY SINCE 1979, FOLLOWING THE STORIES OF SIX IRANIANS WHO HAVE SEEN THEIR HOPES RAISED AND DASHED IN THE TIME AND THEY'RE BOTH JOINING ME NOW, WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

HI, THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

THANK YOU SO MUCH.

CAN I ASK BOTH OF YOU TO START HOUSE --START OUT.

HOW DO YOU REACT TO WHAT TRUMP SAID ABOUT THOSE STILL IN POWER IN IRAN?

I THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP SEEMS TO SORT OF BE PAINTING A DIFFERENT PICTURE THAN WHAT WE SEE IN REALITY ON THE GROUND IN IRAN.

WE STILL ARE WAITING TO KIND OF SEE HOW THESE CHANGES IN IRAN'S LEADERSHIP LAYOUT, AS YOU KNOW, CHRISTIANE, IRAN'S HISTORY CAN TAKE UNEXPECTED TWISTS AND TURNS BUT CERTAINLY WE CAN'T SAY THAT THERE IS REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN.

WHAT WE CAN SAY IS AS YOU MENTIONED, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE IN CHARGE NOW, WE'VE SEEN A LONG, DECADES LONG TREND TOWARD THE MILITARY GAINING MORE AND MORE POWER INSIDE THE COUNTRY, AND THAT HAS BEEN ACCELERATED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS, CERTAINLY, YOU KNOW, WE WILL KIND OF SEE HOW THESE NEGOTIATIONS GO BUT I EXPECT IT'LL BE QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE GROUP OF PEOPLE WHO ARE IN POWER NOW TO KIND OF MAKE SOME OF THE MOST SERIOUS COMPROMISES ON THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM OR ON OTHER ISSUES.

AND, WHAT IS YOUR VIEW ON THIS?

YOU KNOW, WE SAID, THE IRANIAN PEOPLE WERE ENCOURAGED TO TAKE OVER, AFTER THE WAR AND YES, PERHAPS, TRUMP IS DEALING WITH PEOPLE LIKE, THE FOREIGN MINISTER AND THE SPEAKER OF THE PARLIAMENT BUT ALSO TASKED WITH ESSENTIALLY RUNNING THIS PART BUT THERE'S ALSO THE IRGC WHO HAVE MADE THEIR VOICE VERY CLEAR AND MADE THEIR VIEWS VERY CLEAR AND FRANKLY, THERE'VE BEEN ORGANIZED PROTESTS INSIDE OF IRAN AGAINST THIS DEAL BY THE HARDLINERS.

WHAT DO YOU THINK, GIVEN THE TITLE OF YOUR BOOK, STOLEN REVOLUTION, WE WILL GET MORE INTO THAT, WHAT DO YOU THINK IMMEDIATELY WILL BE THE POLITICAL MANIFESTATION OF A POSTWAR IRAN VIS--VIS THE PEOPLE OF IRAN?

SO, THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC, IT'LL BE A DIFFICULT TASK TO SELL THIS DEAL INTERNALLY BECAUSE, FOR THE HARDLINERS, WE SEE THEY ARE VERY CRITICAL OF THE DEAL.

AND FOR THEM, IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE FOR THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC TO MAKE A DEAL WITH EUS ONLY A FEW MONTHS AFTER THEY KILLED THEIR LEADER, THE SUPREME LEADER.

I SEE THE WAY THEY ARE TRYING TO SELL THE DEAL IS THAT, THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC A BREATHING SPACE TO REBUILD ITS OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES, TO GET READY FOR A FULL ON CONFRONTATION IN THE FUTURE.

SO FROM THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC PERSPECTIVE, IT SEEMS THEY THINK THAT THIS IS A GOOD DEAL BECAUSE THEY CAN REGROUP AND RETHINK THEIR STRATEGIES AND PLAN AHEAD FOR THE FUTURE.

BUT I THINK FOR THE IRANIAN PEOPLE, THE OUTCOME IS QUITE DISAPPOINTING BECAUSE IN THE EYES OF MANY, THE WAR DIDN'T START ON FEBRUARY 28th.

IT STARTED FROM JANUARY, WHEN THOUSANDS, MAYBE MILLIONS OF IRANIANS CAME TO THE STREET AND PRESIDENT TRUMP TOLD THEM TO REMAIN ON THE STREETS BECAUSE THE HELP WAS ON ITS WAY.

SO IN THE EYES OF MANY IRANIANS, THEY EXPECTED THIS MILITARY CAMPAIGN TO BE A WAY THAT THEY WILL OVERTHROW THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC WITH THE HELP OF AMERICANS.

ON THE QUESTION OF THE REGIME CHANGE IN THE EYES OF MANY IRANIANS, THE REGIME HAS NOT CHANGED, ONLY, IT HAS CHANGED TO A WORSE VERSION OF ITSELF.

AND JUST A QUOTE, ACCORDING TO HUMAN RIGHTS ORGANIZATIONS, THEY ARE EXECUTING THE POLITICAL PRISONERS ROUGHLY 1, EVERY OTHER DAY SINCE MARCH 18th.

NOW I WANT TO GET ON YOUR BOOK WHICH IS A FASCINATING TAKE.

YOU TAKE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE, TO ILLUSTRATE WHAT YOU CALL, STOLEN REVOLUTION, THAT'S THE TITLE, AND HOW, THROUGH DECADES, AND IT'S NOT JUST THIS REGIME BUT FOR MANY YEARS BEFORE, THEY HAVE BASICALLY HAD THEIR RESISTANCE CRUSHED.

SO, TELL ME HOW YOU DECIDED TO USE THIS FORMAT TO TELL THE STORY SINCE 1979, AND I'M PARTICULARLY INTERESTED FIRST, IN YOUR EXAMINATION OF, WHO IS REALLY VERY COMPELLING IN YOUR STORYTELLING, TELL US WHO HE IS AND WHY YOU PICKED HIM AS A KEY POINT PERSON IN THE STORY?

YEAH, HE IS A COMPLEX AND FASTING FIGURE, HE IS THE ISLAMIC CLERIC WHO IS SORT OF ON THE LEFT POLITICALLY BUT VERY MUCH BELIEVES IN KHAMENEI'S VISION OF AN ISLAMIC STATE AND JOINS THE MOVEMENT, IS JAILED MANY TIMES, TREATED QUITE BADLY IN PRISON BUT REMAINS COMMITTED TO THE MOVEMENT AND AS A RESULT, WHEN THE REVOLUTION DOES SUCCEED IN 1979, HE RISES TO POSITIONS OF GREAT POWER AND BECOMES PARLIAMENT SPEAKER AT THE END OF THE 1980S AND EARLY 90s, AND THROUGHOUT THE 80s, HE TAKES ON A ROLL OF SORT OF SPREADING WEALTH TO THE POOR IN SOCIETY, AND THAT OFTEN MEANT CONFISCATING PROPERTIES FROM THE RICH AND FROM THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAST REGIME.

AFTER HE DIES, HE IS CAST OUT OF POWER BY HIS SUCCESSOR AND HE THEN, AND MANY OF HIS ALLIES ON THE LEFT BEGIN TO THINK SOME OF THEIR PRINCIPLES.

AND PUSHED ALONG BY THIS BABY- BOOM GENERATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE IN THAT ERA, WHO WANTED SOMETHING NEW AND SOMETHING DIFFERENT FROM THEIR GOVERNMENT.

THAT KIND OF RESULTS IN THE REFORM OF THE MID TO LATE 1990S AND HE PLAYS A COOL -- KEY ROLE IN THAT AND RISES BACK TO POWER DURING HIS SECOND STENT AS PARLIAMENT SPEAKER.

SO WE FOLLOW HIS STORY.

HE RUNS FOR PRESIDENT IN 2009 AND BECOMES ONE OF THE IMPRISONED, UNDER HOUSE ARREST, LEADERS OF THE GREEN MOVEMENT IN 2009, AND HIS STORY SHOWS THE NARROWING OF IRAN'S POLITICAL SYSTEM AND THROUGH HIM, WE DON'T TURN AWAY FROM THE MISTAKES THAT HE MADE IN THE 1980S AND THE WAYS IN WHICH SOME OF THE STEPS THAT HE TOOK , THE INSTITUTIONS THAT HE HELPED CREATE, THEN, WHERE THE SAME INSTITUTIONS THAT OPPRESSED HIM AND HIS ALLIES LATER ON.

SO WE JUST FELT LIKE HE WAS A REALLY INTERESTING, COMPLEX CHARACTER TO SHOW THE ARK OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC.

AND INDEED, I COVERED HIS PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN ALONG WITH, IN 2009 AND THEY WERE TRYING TO UNSEAT THE MUCH MORE HARD-LINE, AND THEY BELIEVED IN THE END THAT ACTUALLY THAT ELECTION HAD BEEN STOLEN FROM THEM.

SO, THE GREEN REVOLUTION.

HOW CLOSE WAS THAT TO ACTUALLY BRINGING THE IRANIAN PEOPLE THEIR ABILITY TO OVERTHROW, WHETHER OR NOT IT'S GET RID OF THE REGIME BUT CHANGE THE REGIME, THERE VERY HARD-LINE ATTITUDE CERTAINLY, YOU KNOW, FOR A LONG TIME BEFORE THAT AND MOST PARTICULARLY IN THE ERA BEFORE THE 2009 UPRISING.

I THINK IT WAS VERY CLOSE, IN THE EYES OF MANY, THE ARAB UPRISING STARTED FROM TEHRAN IN 2009 WITH THE GREEN MOVEMENT BECAUSE IT WAS THE SAME IN NATURE, IT WAS A YOUTH MOVEMENT THAT WANTED SOMETHING MORE.

THEY WANTED TO LIVE IN A DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY.

BUT WHAT HAPPENED THAT IT FAILED AND WHY WE SEE MANY OTHER ARAB NATIONS SUCCEED?

I THINK THE ENERGY WAS THERE, BUT, THE IRANIAN LEADERS, KARROUBI, THEY WEREN'T READY AND WE SEE THAT PATTERN A LOT IN IRAN'S HISTORY, THE IRANIAN LEADERS ARE ALWAYS ONE STEP BEHIND THE PEOPLE, SO IN THE GREEN MOVEMENT, MANY PEOPLE CAME TO THE STREETS AND THEY WERE READY TO CREATE THE FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE, BUT IT SEEMS THAT KHOMEINI AND, WERE NOT READY TO UTILIZE THE STREET PRESENCE THE WAY THAT THE EGYPTIAN LEADERS WERE ABLE TO.

I BELIEVE WE SEE THE SAME PATTERN IN THE REFORM MOVEMENT AFTER 1997 WHEN, WAS ELECTED AS THE PRESIDENT.

THE ENERGY WAS THERE, HE WAS ELECTED WITH 20 MILLION VOTES, BUT HE WAS MORE CAUTIOUS THAN THE VOTERS.

SO THAT'S WHY THAT OPPORTUNITY WAS ALSO LOST.

THAT'S SO INTERESTING, HE WAS MORE CAUTIOUS THAN THE VOTERS.

YOU KNOW VERY WELL THAT MANY OF THE OPPONENTS OF THIS REGIME INSIDE IRAN AND OUTSIDE IRAN, NEVER BELIEVED IN REFORM, THEY SAID IT'S JUST A JOKE, IT'S A RUSE, THERE'S NO WAY OF REFORMING THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.

I DON'T KNOW WHETHER YOU HAVE A COMMENT ON THAT BUT I'M INTERESTED IN YOUR VIEW ON WHY, NOT JUST FROM 1979, BUT EVEN BEFORE, EVEN GOING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CONSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTION BACK AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 20th CENTURY.

IRANIAN REGIME'S AND LEADERS, WHETHER THEY ARE MONARCHIST OR NOT , HAVE APPARENTLY NEVER BEEN ACCOUNTABLE TO THEIR PEOPLE.

THEY JUST HAVE NOT HAD THAT KIND OF POPULAR LEGITIMACY, AND EVERY TIME THERE IS A, YOU KNOW, UPRISING, THEY GET CRUSHED AND OBVIOUSLY IN THE LAST NEARLY 50 YEARS AS WELL.

DO YOU SEE IT THAT WAY AND DO YOU HAVE AN ANSWER FOR WHY?

YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT REQUIRES SORT OF MAYBE A HISTORIAN OR SOCIOLOGIST.

I THINK IT'S TRUE OVER THE LAST 100+ YEARS, WE'VE SEEN THESE REPEATED, ABORTED ATTEMPTS AT GREATER FREEDOM STARTING FROM THE CONSTITUTIONAL REVOLUTION GOING THROUGH THE MOVEMENT, THROUGH 1979, WHICH, WE DOCUMENT IN THE BOOK AND OTHERS HAVE AS WELL THAT THERE WERE ELEMENTS , LARGE PARTS OF THE REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT THAT WANTED GREATER FREEDOMS AND BELIEVED THAT GETTING RID OF THE SHAW WOULD BRING THEM THOSE FREEDOMS POLITICALLY AND INSTEAD, WHAT THEY GOT WAS GREATLY CURTAILED SOCIAL FREEDOMS AND EVENTUALLY A VERY RESTRICTIVE POLITICAL SPACE AS WELL.

SO, I THINK , YOU KNOW, WHAT WE SORT OF TRY AND TRACE IN THE BOOK IS THE FACT THAT THE IRANIAN PEOPLE KEEP TRYING IN DIFFERENT WAYS AND THEY TURNED TO DIFFERENT METHODS, WHETHER IT'S FIRST VOTING, IN 1997, VOTING IN THIS UNEXPECTED WAY, REALLY, FOR THE FIRST TIME FOR A CANDIDATE THAT WAS NOT OPENLY FAVORED BY THE SUPREME LEADER.

WE TOOK THE SYSTEM BY SURPRISE AND WHEN THAT WAS STYMIED, WE TURNED TO PEACEFUL STREET PROTESTS AND THEY VOTED AGAIN IN THE GREEN MOVEMENT AND OVER AND OVER IN THE LAST 10 OR 15 YEARS, WE'VE SEEN ROUND AFTER ROUND OF PROTESTS, AND YOU KNOW, I DON'T EXPECT THAT IMPULSE TO GO AWAY.

SO, FINALLY, YOU DON'T JUST YOU KNOW, FOCUS ON LEADERS AND THE LIKE BUT ALSO ORDINARY PEOPLE, FOR INSTANCE, THE STORY OF, A TEENAGER WHO YOU REPORT WAS TRYING TO ORGANIZE POETRY NIGHTS ONLY TO HAVE IT SHUT DOWN OVER AND OVER BUT ONE OF THE BUREAUCRATS SIGNS THE PERMIT AND SAID I'M LETTING THIS FIRE BOTH FOR YOU AND FOR ME .

IT'S A SMALL ACT OF RESISTANCE OBVIOUSLY FROM HER BUT ALSO FROM HIM, TELL ME ABOUT THAT AND WHERE YOU THINK THE PEOPLE OF IRAN ARE GOING TO FIND THEMSELVES, NOW, IN POSTWAR IRAN.

DO YOU THINK THIS REGIME WILL UNDERSTAND THAT THEY NEED TO RESPOND TO THE PEOPLE'S NEEDS OR ELSE GET KICKED OUT?

YEAH, I THINK THE WAY I SEE THE IRANIAN SOCIETY, IS LIKE A FROZEN RIVER.

BECAUSE ON THE SURFACE WE SEE THE ICE AND WE SEE THE POLICE --POLITICAL SYSTEM IS RIGID BUT DEEP INSIDE, WE SEE A FLOW, STREAM OF CULTURAL AND SOCIAL LIFE AND I THINK THAT CULTURE , IN DEEPER LAYERS OF THE SOCIETY THEY'RE FIGHTING FOR FREEDOM.

IN THE BOOK WE DIDN'T WANT TO LIMIT OURSELVES TO THE POLITICAL LEVEL BECAUSE, THE FULL IRANIAN EXPERIENCE ALSO INCLUDES THE CULTURAL AND SOCIAL AND ALSO ECONOMIC LAYERS OF THE SOCIETY WHICH WE EXPLAIN IN THE BOOK.

HOW SHE TRIES, SHE TRIES REALLY HARD TO FIND SOME FREEDOM IN THE CULTURAL SPACE.

SHE GOES THROUGH NEGOTIATIONS WITH MANY GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TO CREATE SOME SAFE SPACE FOR CREATING CULTURE.

OF COURSE SHE'S DISAPPOINTED OVER AND OVER BUT AS WE SEE IN HER PERSONAL LIFE, SHE COMES BACK AND ONLY FIGHTS STRONGER.

I THINK THAT SHOWS THE SPIRIT OF THE NATION, THAT WHATEVER IS THE RESULT OF THEIR ATTEMPTS, IF IT'S FAILURE, THEY WILL GO AND REINVENT THEMSELVES AND COME BACK AGAIN.

AND IN 30 SECONDS, OBVIOUSLY ONE OF THE BIGGEST WAS WOMAN, LIFE, FREEDOM.

YOU HAVE HOPE FOR IRANIAN WOMEN?

I THINK, YOU KNOW, WE POINT OUT IN THE BOOK THAT ALTHOUGH IT FAILED IN ITS POLITICAL EFFORTS TO UNSEAT OF THE REGIME, IT HAD A LASTING AND HUGE SOCIAL IMPACT, POSSIBLY MORE THAN ANY OTHER MOVEMENT WE'VE SEEN IN IRAN'S HISTORY AND I THINK THAT SHOWS YOU THE STRENGTH OF THE IRANIAN WOMEN'S MOVEMENT AND THEIR WILLINGNESS TO KEEP FIGHTING FOR WHAT THEY BELIEVE ARE THEIR RIGHTS.

YEGANEH TORBATI AND BOZORGMEHR SHARAFEDIN , THANK YOU BOTH VERY MUCH, STOLEN REVOLUTION.

> FOR SOMETHING DIFFERENT, THE WORLD CUP IS WELL UNDERWAY IN NORTH AMERICA AND IT'S BEEN A MOST UNUSUAL TOURNAMENT SO FAR, FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE COMPETITION IS PLAYING OUT ACROSS THREE COUNTRIES, THE U. S. , CANADA AND MEXICO.

ONE OF THE COUNTRIES, THE U. S. , HAS AS YOU KNOW, BEEN ACTIVELY BOMBING A COMPETITOR, IRAN AND MANY FANS AND EVEN PARTICIPANTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET VISAS.

ON THE PITCH, IT'S BEEN FULL OF THRILLS INCLUDING A HAT TRICK FROM MESSI FROM ARGENTINA AND THE THRILLING PERFORMANCE FROM CAPE VERDE, WHERE THEIR 40-YEAR- OLD GOALIE KEPT THE SPANISH TEAM AT BAY FOR THE ENTIRE MATCH.

LET US BRING IN FINANCIAL TIMES COLUMNIST, SIMON KUPER , AUTHOR OF WORLD CUP FEVER.

SIMON KUPER , WELCOME BACK TO OUR PROGRAM.

HI.

SO YOU ARE IN PARIS, I THINK, WHERE YOU ARE BASED, WHAT IS YOUR INITIAL COMMENTARY ON THE WORLD CUP, IS IT AS EXCITING AS YOU THOUGHT, LESS, MORE, TELL ME?

I'M GOING TO PHILADELPHIA TOMORROW SO I WILL START THE REAL THING.

I THINK AFTER SOME RATHER SMALLTIME GAMES, PEOPLE ARE NOW GETTING VERY INTO IT, IN THE LAST 24 HOURS, THREE OF THE GREATS OF FOOTBALL HAVE PUT IN BRILLIANT PERFORMANCES, AND I THINK WHERE THIS STARTS UNDER THE CLOUD OF DONALD TRUMP AND THE TERRIBLE TICKET PRICES AND THE REJECTIONS AS YOU SAY OF SOME OFFICIALS AND FANS WHO WANTED TO COME IN, NOW, I THINK THE PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO FORGET ABOUT THAT AND REALLY ENJOY THE FOOTBALL WHICH IS PROBABLY AS IT SHOULD BE.

YEAH, AND, WHAT MATCHES HAVE STOOD OUT FOR YOU?

YOU MENTIONED THE THREE THAT HAVE DONE UNBELIEVABLE.

WHAT ABOUT LESSER-KNOWN'S, LIKE BOSNIA HELD THEIR OPPONENTS TO A DRAW, IRAN HELD THEIR OPPONENTS TO A DRAWN AND CAPE VERDE, TELL ME ABOUT THAT GOALIE, IT'S AN INCREDIBLE STORY.

YEAH, HE PLAYS IN THE SECOND DIVISION IN PORTUGAL, VOZINHA, HE'S 40 YEARS OLD AND SPAIN COULDN'T EVEN BEAT CAPE VERDE PLAYING THE FIRST WORLD CUP WITH EIGHT TEAM DRAWN HEAVILY FROM ITS DIASPORA.

AND IT IS THE FIRST REAL CINDERELLA MOVEMENT WE'VE HAD.

I THINK THE WHOLE WORLD LOVED IT AND THE U. S. STATE DEPARTMENT IS TRYING TO BRING THE GOALKEEPERS MOTHER INTO THE USO SHE CAN FOLLOW THE TOURNAMENT.

WOULDN'T THAT BE KNOW IT -- NICE, WAS SHE NOT ALLOWED BEFORE?

I THINK CAPE VERDE IS ONE OF THOSE COUNTRIES THAT IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO GET VISAS FOR DONALD TRUMP'S USA.

SO THERE ARE WHOLE COUNTRIES THAT HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO HAVE ANY FANS.

RIGHT, WE HEARD ABOUT THE SOMALI RAFTERY WHOSE LIFESTREAM OF BEING A REFEREE AT A WORLD CUP, IT WAS, YOU KNOW, IT FELL VICTIM TO THE VISA PROGRAM.

BUT, AS YOU SAY, ALL OF THESE HORROR STORIES AND FEARS AND ALL THE HIGH PRICES FOR THE TICKETS, ET CETERA, THEY PLAY A BIG PART IN THE RUN-UP AND AS YOU SAID, PEOPLE HAVE STARTED TO GET INTO THE GAMES BUT HOW DO YOU COMPARE ALL OF THE PRE- SORT OF DISCOMFORT AROUND THIS WORLD CUP, TO OTHER WORLD CUP'S?

THIS IS UNDER THIS CLOUD OF UGLINESS WITH THE LOWEST POINTS OF THE THREE MONTHS, WITH, GIVING TRUMP'S THE PEACE PRIZE JUST BEFORE TRUMP ATTACKED VENEZUELA AND THAT WAS A CHEAPENING OF THE WORLD CUP BUT IT WAS THE SAME FOUR YEARS AGO BEFORE THE WORLD CUP IN QATAR, THIS IS THE THIRD GEOPOLITICALLY WORLD CUP WE'VE HAD, IN 2018 THE HOST WAS PUTIN IN RUSSIA SO IT'S BECOMING A NORM THAT THEY HAPPEN IN PLACES WITH IN NORMA'S POLITICAL PROBLEMS AND DARKNESS AND THE FOOTBALL LIGHTS IT ALL UP.

YOU'VE SAID THIS FOR A LONG TIME.

YOU THINK IT'S PARADOXICALLY A GOOD AND POSITIVE THING, OR, IS IT ENABLING THOSE VERY, YOU KNOW, MORE DARKER CORNERS OF POLITICAL LIFE?

IT COULD ALSO BRING AN OPENNESS TO SOME OF THESE COUNTRIES, NOT REALLY RUSSIA BECAUSE YOU KNOW THEY COMPLETED THEIR INVASION MANIA BY THEIR FULL-SCALE AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE A FEW YEARS LATER BUT QATAR, WHAT DO YOU THINK THE U. S. MIGHT LOOK LIKE , BECAUSE SOCCER, FOOTBALL, HAS NOT BEEN A HUGE THING IN THE U. S.

, HAS IT, LIKE MOST OF THE WORLD?

IT'S GROWN OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS, THE FIRST U. S. WORLD CUP WAS 1994, I THINK POPULARITY OF SOCCER AS A SPORT, IT'S ABOUT THIRD IN U. S.

SPORTS.

BUT I DON'T THINK THE WORLD CUP CHANGES THE WORLD BUT LEADERS LIKE TRUMP AND PUTIN ALWAYS THINK IT'LL DO THEM FAVORS, IT'LL BURNISH THEIR AURA, BUT IN FACT THE WORLD CUP IS OFTEN USED AGAINST LEADERS SO IN QATAR , IT HIGHLIGHTS QATAR'S ABUSES OF MIGRANTS, BUILDING WORKERS, PUTIN HAD TO LET HUNDREDS OF JOURNALISTS INTO RUSSIA AND THERE WERE A LOT OF SCENES OF ORDINARY RUSSIANS HANGING OUT AND DANCING AND SINGING WITH FOREIGN FANS WHICH IS NOT A VERY CLINTONESQUE SCENE.

MAMDANI HAS LED THE CHARGE AGAINST HIGH PRICES AND YOU'VE SEEN A LOT OF AMERICAN POLICE OFFICERS, VIDEOS OF THEM DANCING WITH FOREIGN FANS, A GUY IN BOSTON JUGGLING A BALL , WE ARE SEEING A DIFFERENT U. S. , A U. S.

THAT DOESN'T HAVE THE TRUMPIAN MESSAGE OF, WE HATE THE WORLD.

WE ARE SEEING MUCH MORE JOYOUS INTERACTION BETWEEN AMERICANS AND FOREIGNERS THEN IS PART OF THE TRUMP RHETORIC.

YEAH, AND IT'S ACTUALLY REALLY LOVELY TO SEE BECAUSE WE'VE BEEN SO, YOU KNOW, BULLDOZED BY THIS RHETORIC, AS YOU MENTIONED, FOR THE LAST, AT LEAST, MORE THAN A YEAR.

TELL ME ABOUT YOUR FOOTBALL MANIA, CAN I CALL IT THAT?

YOU STARTED WATCHING THE WORLD CUP, BASICALLY, SINCE 1978, YOU ARE AND EIGHT-YEAR-OLD CHILD IN THE NETHERLANDS AND YOU'VE ATTENDED EVERY WORLD CUP TOURNAMENT SINCE 1990.

SO HOW HAS THE ACTUAL GAME EVOLVES, WHAT HAVE YOU NOTICED IN ALL OF YOUR YEARS OF WORLD CUP ATTENDANCE?

WELL WHEN I FIRST WENT, THERE WERE THREE TEAMS FROM THE BRITISH ISLES IN 1990, ENGLAND IRELAND AND SCOTLAND AND TWO FROM THE WHOLE OF ASIA AND TWO FROM THE WHOLE OF AFRICA.

WHAT IS HAPPENED IS THE WORLD CUP USED TO BE A DUOPOLY, AND NOW IT REALLY DOES INCLUDE THE WHOLE WORLD TO HAVE CAPE VERDE, SENEGAL, HAITI, THERE'S SOMETHING LOVELY ABOUT THAT.

THE WORLD CUP SHOULD BELONG TO EVERYONE AND IT'S WATCHED AN ENORMOUSLY ALL OVER PARTS OF AFRICA AND ASIA, SO, IT'S GREAT THAT IT'S NOW REALLY THE WORLD'S PARTY, THE WESTERN EUROPEANS AND ARGENTINE ARE THE BEST BUT THE INTERNATIONALISM, IT'S OPEN UP TO ALL.

I'VE JUST BEEN TOLD ACTUALLY, THE CAPE VERDE GOALKEEPERS MOM WHO WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT, THERE'S NEWS THAT SHE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED, THAT SHE WILL BE ATTENDING THE NEXT MATCH.

THAT'S GREAT.

THE NEXT MATCH FOR ENGLAND IS AFTER THIS SHOW AIRS, BEFORE IT AIRS IN THE UNITED STATES, AND TEAM ENGLAND WILL PLAY ITS FIRST MATCH AGAINST CROATIA.

TELL ME WHAT YOU PREDICT?

IT'S FOLLY TO PREDICT INDIVIDUAL FOOTBALL MATCHES, ENGLAND ARE A STRONG TEAM, LOGICALLY THEY SHOULD WIN, IT'S AMAZING HE'S STILL THERE AT 40 BUT FOOTBALL MATCHES RARELY GOES TO FORM.

IT GOES TO THE UNDERDOG.

TELL ME, I HAVEN'T READ THE FULL ARTICLE, INTERVIEWERS WON'T HAVE DONE BUT I'M DIRECTING THEM TO YOUR ARTICLE, ALL THE SUPER SOCCER FANS, WHY DO YOU THINK SO?

ESSENTIALLY THE ENGLISH EMBRACED EUROPEAN FOOTBALL SO WHERE'S THE COUNTRY, THEY BREXIT FROM THE UNIT, THE ENGLISH OVER THE LAST 30 YEARS HAVE SAID THE CONTINENTAL EUROPEANS PLAYED BETTER, THEY HAVE THE SHORT PASSING GAME AND THEY'VE ADOPTED IT, AND THE ENGLISH HAVE REALLY GONE FOR IT IN A SCIENTIFIC WAY, THEY HAVE DATA ANALYST, THE BEST PHYSICAL TRAINERS, THEY PLAN THEIR CORNER KICKS, SO IT'S BECOME PROFESSIONAL AND SCIENTIFIC, WHICH SOME MIGHT SAY WOULD BE A NICE MODEL FOR THE UK AS A WHOLE.

AND FINALLY, BECAUSE THERE'S ALWAYS VERY DARK CORNERS, WE TALKED ABOUT SOME OF THEM BUT THERE'S QUITE A LOT OF CONVERSATION IN MEXICO WHICH IS ONE OF THE HOST COUNTRIES, IT'S BASICALLY DONE A HUGE AMOUNT TO REFURBISH AND REALLY MAKE THE PLACE LOOK GOOD, BEEFING UP ALL OF THE RESOURCES, BUT ALSO, THERE'S A SPOTLIGHT BECAUSE THEY ARE HIGHLIGHTING THE MORE THAN 130,000 PEOPLE WHO HAVE GONE MISSING IN THE DRUG WAR THERE.

THE MEXICAN PRESIDENT SHINEBAUM SAID THE WORLD CUP WILL SHOW THE WORLD WHO MEXICO IS.

WHAT DOES THE WORLD SEE AND WHAT SHOULD THE WORLD SEE ABOUT MEXICO?

WELL, THE GOVERNMENT ALWAYS WANTS TO SHOW THE FACE OF A KIND OF WELCOMING COUNTRY WITH GOOD INFRASTRUCTURE , BUT IT'S RIGHT, A LOT OF MEXICANS HAVE BEEN PROTESTING TO FIND OUT WHAT HAPPENED TO THE ENORMOUS NUMBERS OF PEOPLE WHO DISAPPEARED IN THE DRUG WARS, SOME BELIEVE THERE'S GOVERNMENT COMPLICITY.

IT'S AN EXAMPLE OF HOW GOVERNMENTS TRY TO USE THE WORLD CUP AND ORDINARY PEOPLE USE IT AGAINST THEM.

SO WE ARE SEEING A LOT OF MEXICAN ARGUMENTS BE CONDUCTED AROUND THE TOURNAMENT.

SIMON KUPER , THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

NOW LEADERS FROM SOME OF THE WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL COUNTRIES TODAY, WRAPPED UP THEIR THREE- DAY G7 SUMMIT IN FRANCE, FOCUS ON TACKLING MAJOR WARS LIKE THE ONES ON IRAN AND UKRAINE BUT HOVERING OVERHEAD, THE UNINVITED RISING SUPERPOWER, CHINA.

FOR MORE, HERE IS ELIZABETH ECONOMY, SENIOR FELLOW AT STANFORD UNIVERSITY WITH WALTER ISAACSON.

THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

ELIZABETH ECONOMY, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

THANKS, WALTER, GREAT TO BE HERE.

PRESIDENT TRUMP AND WESTERN EUROPEAN ALLIES ARE MEETING FOR THE G7 SUMMIT THIS WEEK.

TELL ME HOW THE IRAN DEAL IS GOING TO AFFECT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE U. S. AND ITS G7 ALLIES AND AFFECT THE REGION?

IT'S GREAT NEWS, OBVIOUSLY THE U. S. AND IRAN HAVE A MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING.

THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO SIGN THE DEAL LATER THIS WEEK, FRIDAY, AND YOU KNOW, IT LEADS TO A CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES.

THERE IS A PLAN FOR LONGER-TERM NEGOTIATIONS, AROUND TWO MONTHS, THAT WILL HOPEFULLY LEAD TO A NEW AGREEMENT ON THE PART OF IRAN TO HALT ITS NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM AND OF COURSE THIS IS GOING TO OPEN BACK UP THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THIS MEETING, THE G7 MEETING, HAVING PRESIDENT TRUMP ARRIVE AND BE ABLE TO ANNOUNCE THAT A DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED, IS ALL POSITIVE AND THE EUROPEANS ARE INTERESTED IN FIGURING OUT HOW THEY CAN SUPPORT THE DEAL MOVING FORWARD BEGINNING WITH I THINK WORKING TO CLEAR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.

I THINK IT'S GOOD TO START OFF WITH THIS DEAL AND CERTAINLY FOR THE REGION WHICH HAS BEEN BATTERED BY THIS WAR OVER THE PAST FOUR MONTHS OR SO.

THIS IS VERY WELCOME NEWS.

OF COURSE THERE ARE SKEPTICS, YOU KNOW, ABOUT THE DURABILITY OF THIS DEAL BECAUSE OF WHAT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE BUT THERE'S A STRONG COMMITMENT AT LEAST ON THE PART OF THE UNITED STATES TO TRY AND MAKE THIS STICK.

WE WILL HOLD ONTO OPTIMISM PERHAPS, UNTIL PROVED OTHERWISE.

HOVERING OVER THIS WEEK'S G7 SUMMIT OF COURSE IS CHINA.

WHAT ARE THE ALIGNMENTS OF EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES WHEN IT COMES TO DEALING WITH CHINA?

YOU KNOW, CHINA HAS BEEN OCCUPYING A FAIRLY CENTRAL POSITION FOR ABOUT FIVE YEARS NOW.

AND THERE ARE TWO SETS OF ISSUES WHERE YOU FIND THE UNITED STATES AND THE OTHER G7 PARTNERS IN FAIRLY CLOSE ALIGNMENT, ONE IS AROUND SORT OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT WHERE ALL OF THESE COUNTRIES FACE SIMILAR CHALLENGES FROM CHINA'S ECONOMIC MODEL, AND THAT'S TRUE WHETHER WE ARE TALKING ABOUT CHINA'S ECONOMIC COALITION, SO FOR EXAMPLE, WHEN AUSTRALIA CALLED FOR INVESTIGATIONS INTO THE ORIGINS OF COVID AND CHINA STARTED TO BOYCOTT AUSTRALIAN GOODS COMING INTO CHINA, SO, THESE COUNTRIES HAVE DEVELOPED AN ANTI-COERCION PLATFORM AROUND WHICH THEY WILL WORK TOGETHER TO SUPPORT COUNTRIES WHO ARE FACING ECONOMIC COERCION FROM CHINA, CERTAINLY, WE'VE SEEN OVER THE PAST TWO OR THREE YEARS, EFFORTS ON CRITICAL MINERALS AND RARE EARTH ELEMENTS AND EFFORTS TO DEVELOP ALIGNMENT ON EXPLORING NEW SOURCES OF MINING AND REFINING OF THESE RARE EARTHS BECAUSE THERE'S TOO MUCH DEPENDENCE ON CHINA IN THIS SPACE.

SO THE ISSUE OF SUPPLY CHAIN DEPENDENCY IS ANOTHER AREA WHERE THERE IS ALIGNMENT WITHIN THE G7 AND WE'VE SEEN NEW ARRANGEMENTS EMERGE.

AND IN TERMS OF TRADE DEFENSE MEASURES, SO CHINA'S EXPORT OF ITS OVERCAPACITY, IS A SOURCE OF VERY SERIOUS CONCERN FOR ALL THE G7 MEMBERS.

SOLAR PANELS AND BATTERIES AND EV'S, AND WE WILL SEE IT ACROSS A WHOLE ARRAY OF OTHER TECHNOLOGIES AND PRODUCTS, SO, ALIGNMENT AGAIN AROUND TARIFFS, EXPORT CONTROLS, ON INVESTMENT SCREENING, SO THERE'S A LOT OF WORK TO BE DONE IN ALIGNING OUR POLICIES AROUND THESE AREAS AND SORT OF COOPERATING TOGETHER, SO NOT JUST A LINE BUT COOPERATE.

IN THE SECOND AREA WHERE THE G7 HAS SORT OF FOCUS ON CHINA HAS BEEN IN TERMS OF CHINA'S ROLE ON THE GLOBAL SECURITY FRONT, AND HERE OF COURSE, CHINA HAS BEEN, YOU KNOW, SORT OF AN ECONOMIC LIFELINE FOR RUSSIA IN RUSSIA'S WAR OF AGGRESSION AGAINST UKRAINE, AND YOU KNOW, THAT'S BEEN VERY PROBLEMATIC, AND ALSO, CHINA, SORT OF DESTABILIZING BEHAVIOR IN THE PACIFIC.

THAT'S ANOTHER AREA WHERE THE G7 HAS TAKEN NOTE AND SORT OF CALLED OUT THAT SORT OF NEGATIVE ACTION BY BEIJING, AND, FRANKLY SPEAKING, THE WHOLE SORT OF EMERGING AXIS OF CHINA, RUSSIA, NORTH KOREA AND IRAN, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT I THINK GREATLY CONCERNS THE G7.

I THINK BOTH IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC SPACE AND THE SECURITY SPACE, THERE'S GENERAL ALIGNMENT WITHIN THE G7, THAT, YOU KNOW, THEY NEED TO DEVELOP A SET OF COUNTERMEASURES TO SORT OF RESPOND TO WHAT IS A GROWING AND REALLY CHALLENGING THREAT THAT CHINA IS POSING.

WELL, YOU TALK ABOUT REDUCING THE DEPENDENCY ON CHINA FOR SUPPLY CHAIN, RARE EARTH MINERALS, SOMETIMES TALK ABOUT DE-RISKING, WHICH IS A RISK IF WE RELY TOO MUCH ON CHINA BUT YET IF WE PROCEED DOWN THIS PATH, DOESN'T IT MAKE IT HARDER TO KIND OF WEAN CHINA AWAY FROM ITS ALLIANCE WITH RUSSIA AND IRAN?

I DON'T THINK SO.

I MEAN, THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE ISSUES, YOU KNOW, CHINA DEPENDS ON IRAN AND RUSSIA, REALLY FOR NATURAL RESOURCES, AND IT ALIGNS WITH THOSE COUNTRIES ON POLITICAL GROUNDS, MORE THAN NECESSARILY ON ECONOMIC GROUNDS.

SO THE ISSUE IS SOMETHING THAT CHINA ITSELF DOES, CHINA HAS BEEN DE-RISKING ITS OWN ECONOMY .

WE'VE SEEN IT DIVERSIFY ITS SOURCES OF ENERGY, EXTREMELY SUCCESSFULLY, IN TERMS OF BOTH CLEAN ENERGY TO OIL AND GAS FROM MANY DIFFERENT SOURCES AND CHINA HAS BEEN DOING THIS, IT'S BEEN DE-RISKING ITS SUPPLY CHAIN OVER AN ARRAY OF TECHNOLOGIES.

XI JINPING, THE ARE TRYING TO CREATE FORTRESS CHINA, HE TALKS ALL THE TIME ABOUT THE NEED FOR CHINA TO HAVE INDEPENDENCE IN ITS FOOD SECURITY AND ENERGY SECURITY AND TECHNOLOGY SECURITY.

THAT HAS BEEN CHINA'S APPROACH FOR ITS OWN ECONOMY, FOR A VERY LONG PERIOD OF TIME.

SO REALLY, IT'S THE UNITED STATES AND OTHER ADVANCED DEMOCRACIES JUST PLAYING CATCH- UP, IN MANY RESPECTS TO WHAT CHINA HAS ALREADY BEEN DOING AND RECOGNIZING THE RISKS THAT COME FROM THIS OVERDEPENDENCE AND FRANKLY SPEAKING, WE DIDN'T EVEN REALIZE THIS I THINK, UNTIL COVID WHEN WE BECAME ACUTELY AWARE OF OUR DEPENDENCE ON CHINA FOR THE PERSONAL PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT, THE MASK AND THE GLOVES AND THE VENTILATORS, THAT WE NEEDED AND THEY WERE IN SUCH SHORT SUPPLY AND WE SAW TO SOME EXTENT, CHINA WEAPONIZED THOSE THINGS THAT CHINA CAN USE THINGS LIKE THE PPE, LIKE ITS CONTROL OVER ACTIVE PHARMACEUTICAL INGREDIENTS, THE PRECURSORS THAT WE NEED FOR SO MANY DRUGS AND THE RARE EARTH AND CRITICAL MINERALS RIGHT WHEN CHINA DECIDES TO TURN OFF YOU KNOW, ITS EXPORTS, THE ENTIRE WORLD SUFFERS.

SO I THINK IT'S REALLY IMPERATIVE, FRANKLY, THAT WE BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE SOURCES FOR THESE GOODS.

WELL LET'S TALK ABOUT THE BELTED ROAD INITIATIVE, EXACTLY HOW DOES THAT GET COUNTRIES TO ALIGN WITH CHINA AND DOES THE WEST HAVE A SUITABLE COUNTERPART?

SO THE INITIATIVE BEGAN AS A SORT OF HARD INFRASTRUCTURE PLAY IN 2018 AND AT THE TIME, IT WAS REALLY ABOUT CONNECTING SOME LESSER DEVELOPED CHINESE CITIES AND REGIONS TO EXTERNAL MARKETS THROUGH INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS.

SO PORTS AND RAILROADS AND HIGHWAYS.

IT'S EVOLVED TO INCLUDE YOU KNOW, THE DIGITAL SILK ROAD WHICH IS ALL ABOUT YOU KNOW, CABLES AND THE DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE, DATA CENTERS, E PAYMENT SYSTEMS, SATELLITE SYSTEMS.

THERE'S THE HEALTH SILK ROAD WHICH CAME TO FRUITION DURING COVID, CHINESE MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY AND THE GREEN SILK ROAD WHICH IS ABOUT THE CLEAN TECH SPACE.

DOES THE BELGIAN ROAD ENABLE CHINA TO GET COUNTRIES TO ALIGN WITH IT?

I THINK THERE'S NOT EVIDENCE REALLY FOR EXAMPLE WHERE COUNTRIES THAT RECEIVE THE MOST INVESTMENT FROM CHINA NECESSARILY ALIGN WITH CHINA ON ISSUES THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO CHINA IN THE UNITED NATIONS.

WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT KIND OF ALIGNMENT EMERGING, AND FRANKLY SPEAKING, IN MANY COUNTRIES, THERE HAVE BEEN A LOT OF POPULAR PROTESTS AROUND BELGIAN ROAD PROJECT.

EVEN THOUGH MANY ARE WELCOMED, CERTAINLY, BY LEADERS, THERE'S A LOT OF CONSTERNATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL, WHY?

BECAUSE CHINA HAS OFTEN EXPLOITED ITS OWN LABOR WHICH MEANS LOCAL COMMUNITIES DON'T BENEFIT.

THE SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTS , THE DEALS ARE STRUCK IN A NONTRANSPARENT WAY, SO, A LOT OF LOCAL PEOPLE MAY BELIEVE THAT THEIR LEADERS ARE POCKETING SOME SIDE MONEY AND SOMETIMES THE QUALITY OF THE PROJECTS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.

SO, EVEN THOUGH YOU KNOW, THE INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORT IS MUCH NEEDED AND AGAIN, WELCOMED BECAUSE OFTEN TIMES WESTERN COMPANIES ARE NOT WILLING TO GO IN TO DO THIS KIND OF WORK, YOU KNOW THE PROJECTS HAVE NOT BEEN UNIFORMLY SUCCESSFUL.

ABOUT A THIRD OF THEM HAVE EITHER BEEN CANCELED OR STALLED, RUNNING INTO SIGNIFICANT DIFFICULTY.

I WAS GOING TO SAY, THAT BEING SAID, TO YOUR POINT ABOUT, DOES THE WEST OFFER A COMPARABLE YOU KNOW, SORT OF COMPETITIVE KIND OF PROJECT, NO.

AND THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF EFFORTS IN THE PAST COUPLE ADMINISTRATIONS, U. S. ADMINISTRATIONS TO DO THAT, AND I WOULD SAY NONE OF THEM HAS SUCCEEDED AND WE'VE TRIED WORKING WITH PARTNERS AND ALLIES TO DO THIS BUT IT'S VERY DIFFICULT.

AGAIN, IF YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE CHINESE PRIORITY AREAS OF MINING, DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE, AND CLEANTECH, THEY REALLY DOMINATE , AND YOU ARE LOOKING AT GOING INTO MINING IN PLACES WHERE WESTERN COMPANIES JUST HAVEN'T WANTED TO GO.

IT'S TOO DIFFICULT TO DO THAT BUT CHINESE COMPANIES, HEAVILY SUBSIDIZED ARE IN IT FOR THE LONG TERM AND THEY DON'T MIND THE CONDITIONS AND THEY DON'T MIND WORKING IN CHALLENGING CONDITIONS.

SO THEY HAVE A LONG-TERM STRATEGY THAT IS PAYING OFF AND WE ARE FACING THE CONSEQUENCES.

THAT BEING SAID, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT DESPITE ALL OF THE ATTENTION THAT BELGIAN ROAD GETS, IF YOU LOOK ACROSS THE WORLD, CHINA IS THE LARGEST SOURCE OF INVESTMENT IN NONE OF THESE REGIONS.

SO, YOU KNOW, EUROPE IS THE LARGEST INVESTOR IN AFRICA, JAPAN, IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE UNITED STATES IS THE LARGEST INVESTOR IN LATIN AMERICA.

SO, ARE KINDS OF INVESTMENT ARE DIFFERENT.

WE DON'T TEND TO DO THE HIGH PROFILE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS.

THE U. S. HAS RETREATED A LOT FROM GLOBAL LEADERSHIP.

YOU'VE TALKED ABOUT BELGIAN ROAD, WE HAVE PULLED BACK ON BOTH FOREIGN INVESTMENT BUT OBVIOUSLY USAID.

LIKEWISE, RELATIONSHIPS WITH OUR NATO ALLIES, WE'VE PULLED BACK ON THAT.

TO WHAT EXTENT DOES THAT HELP CHINA AND TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THEY SUCCESSFUL IN CAPITALIZING THAT.

IT'S AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION TO MAKE, CERTAINLY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS WITHDRAWN THE UNITED STATES FROM ITS TRADITIONAL POSITION AS, YOU KNOW, THE MOST IMPORTANT SORT OF GLOBAL PROVIDER OF PUBLIC GOODS.

WE HAVE YOU KNOW, STRESSED CERTAINLY OUR NATO ALLIES, THREATENED TO WITHDRAW FROM NATO, THREATENED TO INVADE GREENLAND.

WE HAVE TAKEN OUR POLITICAL MODEL OFF THE TABLE AS A SOURCE OF COMPETITION.

WE HAD A NON- ILLOGICAL FOREIGN POLICY, WE ARE NO LONGER PRESENTING OURSELVES AS A DEMOCRACY AND THAT NO LONGER MATTERS TO THIS PARTICULAR ADMINISTRATION, WE DON'T CONSIDER THAT A SELLING POINT ANYMORE, SO, AND AS YOU SAY, WE HAVE BASICALLY SHUTTERED USAID.

WHICH MEANS THAT WE HAVE TAKEN OURSELVES OUT OF THAT SPACE, PROVIDING AID TO SOME OF THE WORLD'S YOU KNOW, POOREST AND MOST IMPOVERISHED COUNTRIES.

IT'S A REALLY IMPORTANT SOURCE OF ASSISTANCE FOR THESE COUNTRIES AND IMPORTANT FOR U. S. SOFT POWER.

WE HAVE DEFINITELY TAKEN A STEP BACK.

I THINK OUR REPUTATION HAS SUFFERED GLOBALLY.

YOU KNOW, OUR REPUTATION IS SINKING, IT'S ALMOST SUNK WHEREAS CHINA'S, IS, YOU KNOW, RISING A LITTLE BIT, BUT THE TRUTH IS, CHINA HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO CAPITALIZE, I THINK, VERY EFFECTIVELY, AND THE REASON BEHIND THAT, IT PROMOTES ITSELF AS A STABILIZING FORCE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE GLOBAL SYSTEM BUT AGAIN, COUNTRIES LOOK AT WHAT CHINA IS DOING IN TERMS OF THE EXPORT, THAT'S NOT STABILIZING FOR OTHER ECONOMIES, WHEN CHINA WEAPONIZED IS ITS CONTROL OF RARE EARTH ELEMENTS, IT'S NOT STABILIZING FOR OTHER COUNTRIES.

YOU KNOW, WHEN CHINA UNDERTAKES ITS MILITARY ASSERTIVE ACTIONS IN INDO-PACIFIC, NOT STABILIZING, SUPPORTING RUSSIA AND IRAN, NOT STABILIZING.

SO IT HASN'T UNDERTAKEN WHAT IT'S PROMISED, WHICH IS TO BE A STABILIZING FORCE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE GLOBAL SECURITY ARENA AND FRANKLY IT HASN'T STEPPED UP TO FILL THE VACUUM THAT'S BEEN LEFT BY THE UNITED STATES IN TERMS OF THE PROVISION OF GLOBAL AID.

INITIALLY CHINA SAID WE WILL REPLACE THE UNITED STATES FOR THIS MILLION OR $2 MILLION PROGRAM BUT IT'S MADE VERY CLEAR THAT IT IS NOT PLANNING TO REPLACE YOU KNOW, WHAT THE UNITED STATES USED TO DO WITH USAID.

CHINA'S OVERSEE DEVELOPMENT IS A TINY FRACTION IS WHAT THE UNITED STATES HAS TRADITIONALLY PROVIDED GLOBALLY?

WHY?

IT DOESN'T BELIEVE THAT IT NEEDS TO DO IT.

IT CAN WIN SIMPLY BY BEING PRESENT IF THE U. S. HAS COMPLETELY REMOVED ITSELF FROM THE GLOBAL STAGE.

BUT BECAUSE CHINA IS PER MY -- PRIMARILY A SELF-INTERESTED ACTOR.

IT HAS NEVER WANTED TO ASSUME THE BURDEN, THE GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY THAT THE UNITED STATES HAS.

AND TO BE FAIR, WE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT IT'S PER CAPITA GDP IS ROUGHLY 13,000 U. S. DOLLARS, AND THE U. S.

GDP IS OVER $80,000, SO, AT SOME LEVEL, YOU KNOW, IT'S STILL A DEVELOPING OR MIDDLE INCOME ECONOMY, SO IT DOESN'T WANT THAT BURDEN BUT IT WANTS TO FOCUS ON THE CORE INTERESTS IN ADVANCING ITS OWN INTEREST.

LET ME ASK THE BIG QUESTION THAT MUST BE FACING THE G-7 IN FRANCE RIGHT NOW, WHICH IS, IS IT OR SHOULD IT BE THE GOAL OF THE WEST RIGHT NOW, TO CONFRONT CHINA AND CONTAIN IT?

OR, SHOULD WE TRY TO GET BETTER RELATIONS AND MORE COOPERATION?

I THINK HERE, THAT THERE'S PROBABLY A GENERALLY AGREED UPON LINE THAT ROUGHLY MATCHES WHAT THE UNITED STATES HAS DONE WHICH IS TO SAY, A KIND OF TACTICAL STABILITY THAT IS AN OVERLAY AGAINST A VERY FIERCE STRATEGIC COMPETITION, SO ENABLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CHANNELS OF COMMUNICATION SO WE HAVE THE BOARD OF TRADE, INVESTMENT, WE WANT TO CONTINUE TO WORK WITH CHINA WHERE WE CAN.

WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TALKS ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, WE ARE RECONSTITUTING OUR MILITARY DISCUSSIONS.

DO I THINK THAT ANY OF THESE THINGS ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO LEAD TO BIG BREAKTHROUGHS IN THE RELATIONSHIP OR MATERIALLY CHANGE THE RELATIONSHIP?

NO.

BUT IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE KEEP TALKING AND TRYING TO FIND AREAS OF COMMON GROUND BUT FUNDAMENTALLY, WHAT YOU SEE WITH THIS ADMINISTRATION AND I THINK WHAT YOU SEE WITH EUROPE AND JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, IS A VERY COMPETITIVE SENSE AROUND TECHNOLOGY, AROUND THE ECONOMY AND AROUND SECURITY.

AND I DON'T THINK THAT IS GOING TO CHANGE.

ELIZABETH ECONOMY, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

THANK YOU.

> AND FINALLY, THE STREETS OF DOWNTOWN CAIRO ARE AWASH WITH ART.

THAT'S THANKS TO A NEW EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT INITIATIVE TO RESHAPE PUBLIC SPACES FROM THE TRADITIONAL FOLK PERFORMANCES, PAINTING, AND ACROBATICS.

YOU CAN SEE A HUGE PART OF CAIRO'S CULTURAL MAKEUP FROM JUST ONE STREET.

THE ARTISTRY EFFORT TO REVIVE CULTURAL LIFE CREATES OPEN SPACE FOR TOURISTS AND RESIDENTS TO ENJOY WHILE EMERGING ARTISTS GET TO SHOWCASE THEIR WORK.

AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT WHAT'S COMING UP EVERY NIGHT, SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER AT PBS.

ORG/AMANPOUR.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING, AND GOODBYE FROM LONDON.