Washington Week with The Atlantic

Lisa Desjardins: Of course, all of this comes also as the two top leaders in Washington are in a standoff over raising the U.S. debt ceiling.

Each of those leaders has potential problems with their own caucus on Capitol Hill.

Speaker McCarthy rolled out his long-awaited plan on Wednesday.

He would raise the debt ceiling into next year in exchange for major spending cuts and the end of some very big Democratic priorities.

But does he have enough Republican votes for it?

Here is Speaker McCarthy Thursday.

Kevin McCarhty: I want you to write strings like I am teetering, whether I could win or not and the whole world hangs in the balance.

And then I want you to write a story after it passes, would the president sit down and negotiate?

Lisa Desjardins: President Biden immediately rejected the speaker's opening bid and took him to task.

Joe Biden, U.S. President: Folks, that is the MAGA economic agenda, spending cuts for working and middle class folks, Americans, and tax cuts for those at the top.

Lisa Desjardins: But Biden has an issue on his side of aisle, a familiar one.

On Thursday, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia blasted Biden in a statement for what he called a deficiency in leadership and urged the president to negotiate with McCarthy.

Some House Democrats echoed that idea that it is time for the president to sit down with the speaker.

All of that comes amid the backdrop of what we've been talking about that next week, President Biden will announce his 2024 re-election bid.

I suppose I am supposed to say he is considering announcing his election bid.

I don't know.

He is going to announce next week.

Let's start with the debt ceiling.

Heather and Scott, I want to ask what is going to happen here.

Heather, next week, does McCarthy have the votes?

Heather Caygle: He doesn't have the votes right now.

He can lose four votes on the floor and pass it.

Right now, they are short of that whip count.

They started whipping it yesterday.

He's got some problems on his right flank, the Andy Biggs of the world want more things.

McCarthy is saying I'm not going to reopen this bill, it is what it is.

And then in the Midwest, Iowa and Minnesota, a lot of these guys are nervous about the bio fuels tax credit that are being repealed and how that looks.

And so now, what they are kind of trying to do behind the scenes is see if they can give them something, like an amendment or some kind of vote later on that would restore some of this to kind of help them go back and save face in their states.

They do hope to vote on Wednesday or Thursday, but right now, they are still short.

Lisa Desjardins: Scott, I mean, I do have a White House reporter and ask you two questions at once, What does McCarthy want and how big of a fall will it be if he can't get the votes next week?

Scott Wong: What McCarthy is trying to drive President Biden to the negotiating table.

President Biden has been able to just hang back and not participate, not invite McCarthy over for these talks because Republicans have been fighting amongst themselves about what types of spending cuts they want to attach this debt ceiling deal.

And so the Democrats, the White House, President Biden feel like they are in a superior negotiating position.

And we will see in this coming week whether McCarthy can get to 218, the magic number had eluded him for 15 rounds in the speaker race earlier this year.

He did get there.

He's saying he is going to get there with this Republican debt deal, but that only starts the conversation.

Lisa Desjardins: Michael?

Michael Scherer: We are serving the chest-thumping phase of the investigation and both sides are trying to show how much power they bring to the table.

And as Nancy Pelosi used to say, like our powers are in our unity.

And that's true in this on both sides.

And so they are sizing each other up.

And at some point, there is going to be a conversation.

At some point, someone is going to have to cave.

Both McCarthy and Biden have said actually defaulting is not an option.

So, there is an actual cliff here that both sides have said they don't want to go over.

But where the middle ground is found will depend on how strong they look when they come to the table.

Lisa Desjardins: Nandita, there's a lot of doublespeak here.

We talked about this earlier.

I think folks might be confused by the White House stance.

Take us through it where they won't negotiate but they will talk about something later.

Nandita Bose: Right.

Lisa Desjardins: What are they trying to do?

Nandita Bose: You are absolutely right.

So, we've seen that sort of trajectory when the president especially started with show me a proposal and I am happy to negotiate, and that has slowly sort of evolved into, well, I want a clean debt ceiling hike, take the risk of default off the table and I'm happy to have a serious conversation.

So, there has been an evolution in that position that the White House has taken on this issue.

Lisa Desjardins: The White House just wrote down the word, evolution.

Nandita Bose: Right.

And, I mean, look, the White House's position on this has been that this is a draconian proposal, that we want budget talks to be kept separate from debt ceiling talks.

The president was at the rose garden just a few hours ago describing how the spending cuts impact his climate agenda.

The White House is on a messaging blitz.

They are sending out a lot of information talking about how this impacts manufacturing jobs, how this like impacts the student debt relief program.

So, their strategy right now is really premised around the idea that the spending proposal will prove to be unpopular as soon as the consequences of this are spelled out clearly.

And that is what they are trying to do.

And also, privately, the president is calling his supporters in Congress, Democrats in Congress, trying to keep the caucus together.

So, that is another sort of priority.

Lisa Desjardins: Power in our unity.

I know some viewers might say, wait a minute, we have until June, maybe September, for that X date, the date by which the U.S. government can no longer actually pay its bills.

But, Heather, is that -- how much time is that really in congressional speak to get things done?

Heather Caygle: I'm getting a little nervous.

I'm going to be honest.

I mean, you guys know, we've seen Congress, they don't really do anything until they have a deadline and they usually take it right up until then.

The problem is, as you said, Lisa, we don't actually know when the X date is.

We expect the CBO to give us -- we will something know more from treasury next week.

The CBO will give an update in mid-may.

But the House is out after next week, for a week, then we're into May.

We're getting very close to June.

I mean, it is very nerve-racking, I think, on the Hill.

And as you said, the White House is saying I'm not going to negotiate with McCarthy until he passes something and agrees to put a clean debt limit on the floor, he is not going to do that.

So, there is going to have to be some acknowledgment from both sides that we are going to meet and we are going to give up some of these talking points, come to the middle and find something that, frankly, can allow both of them to save face, in a way.

I don't think either one is going to get exactly what they want, and we're just not there yet.

Lisa Desjardins: Scott, you've covered a lot of this brinksmanship.

What do you think an endgame could be here?

Let's figure it out.

What do you think?

Scott Wong: Well, the question I did not answer earlier was what happens to McCarthy here, what are the stakes.

And this is really McCarthy's first big test as speaker of the House.

And, of course, we know, part of the deal that he negotiated with the conservatives when he was securing the speaker's gavel was to reinstate the motion to vacate where any single member can bring a vote to the floor to remove McCarthy as speaker of the House at any given moment.

If they don't like the details of this deal with President Biden, that could happen.

And so McCarthy personally has a lot riding on the debt deal, as does the nation.

Lisa Desjardins: Anyone else on the endgame here?

Do we see it yet?

Michael?

Michael Scherer: I think it's going to be - - like both sides have to find a way to maintain their red lines but there is still gray space where they can figure out how to do that.

I think another thing to keep an eye on is the plan McCarthy has talked about is a one-year extension of the debt ceiling, which basically means in the middle of an election year, we will be like naming a Republican nominee and we will be doing this again?

So, that's a wild prospect as well.

Lisa Desjardins: Why is that beneficial to McCarthy?

Why would he want another debt ceiling fight in the spring of 2024?

Michael Scherer: I mean, Heather, and can correct me, but I think he is trying to get votes.

I mean, like he is basically saying to his right flank, you are going to have a second run at this.

We will get another piece of the pie next year at some point.

But it's going to be a very difficult position.

Right now, Democrats feel very certain that the polling on this is to their benefit.

And in an election year next year, they are going to feel more certain, and whoever the Republican nominee is almost certainly going to be saying, wait, I've got to figure out how to get to a general election position here, I don't want to be really defending a collapse of the stock market right now.

Lisa Desjardins: I always think in the endgame, there usually -- there has to be a handshake deal at this point.

There's not enough time for a full appropriations bill to make it out in terms of the debt ceiling, but these guys aren't meeting yet.

So, a handshake certainly is far away.

I want to also talk about President Biden and his election announcement that we expect next week.

Mike, I want to ask you, why is the -- tell me the thinking here and why is there no marching band here?

Why is it going to be a video?

Michael Scherer: I think if you look back at how Obama announced in 2012, it has become more typical now to not start with giant rallies if you are a known commodity.

What they need to do is set up a fundraising system.

They need to start reactivating the grassroots volunteers.

They need to start rebuilding their lists.

They need to actually start building their own staff.

They have hire senior staff.

They have to get a building, probably in Wilmington, to actually have this going.

And so they need something to get there.

And then they can later in the summer or even the fall do a bigger splash announcement.

When Obama announced in early 2011, that was a video, it was grassroots supporters talking about how they are really excited to get back in the game and then he kind of kept being president for six months or eight months before he was out on the campaign trail.

So, I would expect something similar to that.

It's just establishing a foothold, they can start doing the work they need to actually build what they need and then Biden can act more like a candidate later in the cycle.

Nandita Bose: And I just want to just sort of jump in there.

It also helps the president stay above the fray, right, as everyone else fights out for -- I mean, the Republicans fight for the GOP nomination.

And that's sort of been the strategy of this White House and his top advisers.

That is why they've been delaying this decision as long as they have.

And they have consistently communicated that they are in no rush to make an announcement.

And one other thing I will point out is how different this is going to be, this campaign specifically, because the president ran the last one from his basement.

This one, he really has to show up.

He has to avoid those verbal gaffes.

He has to be present.

He has to look sharp.

And that's going to be a challenge for an 80-year-old president.

And so White House aides are sort of focused on that strategy of how to sort of keep him going because he will still have a day job to do.

Lisa Desjardins: How do Democrats on the Hill do this?

Because this is still president who -- he hasn't had a positive approval rating in a year, there is some enthusiasm gap with voters.

But how comfortable are members of the Hill who are worried about their own jobs as well?

Scott Wong: Yes.

Biden is underwater with voters nationwide, but at the same time, Heather and I were up at the Democrat retreat in Baltimore a few weeks ago and Democrats -- Biden came to talk to them.

But Democrats were very excited about the prospects of four more years.

Pramila Jayapal, the progressive caucus leader, who endorsed Bernie Sanders the last time around over Joe Biden, she was saying, hey, Joe Biden is the most progressive president we've seen in our lifetimes, pointing to a lot of legislative victories, the Inflation Reduction Act, infrastructure, gun reform, chips and science, the list goes on and on.

It was a very productive two years under President Biden, and Democrats felt at that time they had a lot to run on.

Heather Caygle: And I will say one interesting thing I want to point out, I was talking to senior Republicans in the House and the Senate this week privately, and they both expressed that they think that Biden can be Trump and they are very concerned about that.

And they won't say that publicly, of course, but he beat him once and they are worried about that.

Lisa Desjardins: In our last minute or so, Heather, Republicans, we know what they have been trying to do.

They have been trying to really knock down Biden through their investigations.

Have they landed punches yet?

How do we see that going?

Heather Caygle: That's a good question.

I think if you talk to Republicans on the House side, they have launched a barrage of investigations.

They have tweeted something this week, they've sent hundreds of letters so far just in the first three or four months of having the majority.

But had they really landed a punch so far?

I don't think so.

I think part of it is they're still very early.

Part of it is the administration is not cooperating.

And part of it is it's so disparate right now.

There's not a common narrative yet of here is corruption, here is this, right?

So, as it goes on, we could see something.

But right now, it's just a lot of spaghetti being thrown at the wall.

Lisa Desjardins: And it's interesting, because over in the Senate, they are sort of just sitting and not doing too much at all.

Michael?

Michael Scherer: Right, yes.

I mean, the Senate's business seems to be much these days confirming judges and they are missing a key member of the Judiciary Committee.

Republicans right now are blocking any way of temporarily placing or probably permanently replacing Dianne Feinstein of California, who has been out with an illness.

And so, yes, they don't have much to do at the moment.

Lisa Desjardins: And I suspect that topic is of interest to our viewers and will come up probably in future WASHINGTON WEEKS.