The Momentous Role of Voter Enthusiasm in the 2024 Election

Frederica Freyberg:
In most presidential elections, pundits talk about the October surprise, the last-minute news story that can change the trajectory of an election. But this year, the biggest shift took place in July, when President Joe Biden announced he was stepping aside, allowing for Kamala Harris to become the Democratic nominee. One significant way this changed things on the ground is in voter enthusiasm. And as we just discussed, the latest Marquette poll shows enthusiasm is higher among Democrats than Republicans. “Here & Now” senior political reporter Zac Schultz shows us how this has changed the race in Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz:
On a beautiful fall day, the office of the Ozaukee Democrats is bustling.

Deb Dassow:
I’ve never seen this many people wanting to volunteer ever.

Zac Schultz:
Deb Dassow is chair of the county party and is getting ready for a visit from Gwen Walz, wife of vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Gwen Walz:
Well, good afternoon, Ozaukee Democrats.

Zac Schultz:
Ozaukee County is the “O” in the famed “WOW” counties. The three conservative hotbeds that surround Milwaukee County and make up the base of the traditional Republican Party of Wisconsin.

Deb Dassow:
I picked up close to 400 signs last week. We’ve got ten left.

Zac Schultz:
By the end of the day, another thousand Harris signs have been dropped off, waiting to be assembled and put up in yards. A visual reminder of the growing Democratic strength in suburban Wisconsin.

Deb Dassow:
Only 998 to go.

Zac Schultz:
It wasn’t too long ago that a visit from someone like Walz and supporters buying yard signs in Ozaukee County was unthinkable. Four months ago, this was unthinkable.

Deb Dassow:
We had a debate party here that night and when President Biden walked out, it was like, “Oh boy.”

Zac Schultz:
At the end of June, Joe Biden debated Donald Trump.

Deb Dassow:
The mood here was very solemn, and we actually had people say, “I’m going to vote for him but I’m not going to do doors. You know, I’m not going to volunteer.”

Zac Schultz:
A few weeks later, the Republican National Convention came to Milwaukee and polling showed Trump with a lead in Wisconsin and Republicans with a huge advantage in voter enthusiasm.

Brian Schimming:
The enthusiasm gap for Donald Trump versus Joe Biden is 22 points, 22 points.

Zac Schultz:
By the end of the week, Brian Schimming, the chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, was warning delegates not to be overconfident about a Trump win.

Brian Schimming:
It’s not just rhetoric. It affects the way we run our parties, the way we volunteer, the way we run door-to-door programs. It affects everything. So we got to go for the win.

Zac Schultz:
That Sunday, Joe Biden suspended his campaign and dropped out of the race.

Joe Biden:
So I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation.

Zac Schultz:
Kamala Harris quickly gathered enough support to become the nominee, and Democratic candidates across the state felt the mood change at the doors overnight.

Jamie Wall:
I did feel like I was kind of running a roving therapy session for relieved Democrats at the doors occasionally because everyone who was a partisan wanted to talk to you about that and how they felt about it.

Christy Welch:
There’s definitely been a shift in enthusiasm.

Zac Schultz:
Christy Welch is running for Assembly and also serves as chair of the Brown County Democrats. She says voter enthusiasm is more than just being excited to vote.

Christy Welch:
With Kamala at the top of the ticket, we definitely saw a major increase in people, you know, filling out our volunteer form on our website, calling into the office, stopping by.

Zac Schultz:
By the time Harris accepted the nomination at the Democratic National Convention, she had taken the lead in the polls and closed the enthusiasm gap.

Mandela Barnes:
Yeah, so there’s certainly been a shift in enthusiasm. I actually just ran into some folks that I saw about two months ago, and our faces looked a little bit different. And look, with all due respect to the president, there’s certainly just a shift in energy.

Zac Schultz:
By September, the debate tables were turned.

Kamala Harris:
In terms of workers’ rights

Zac Schultz:
Democrats at a Green Bay watch party hooted and cheered as Harris delivered a strong performance.

Donad Trump:
We need two things.

Zac Schultz:
While Republicans across town were upset that some of Trump’s statements were being fact checked by moderators.

Debate moderator:
Is that what you believe he’s trying to do here?

Zac Schultz:
The next week, Harris was in Madison.

Kamala Harris:
And it’s great to be back in Madison.

Zac Schultz:
Encouraging her supporters to volunteer, trying to turn enthusiasm into action.

Kamala Harris:
The election is basically here. It’s basically here. And we have work to do to energize, to organize and to mobilize and to remind everyone your vote is your voice.

Zac Schultz:
Republicans are asking the same thing of their supporters.

Donald Trump:
Remember, early mail-in voting is underway. So vote, vote, vote. You got to get going.

Zac Schultz:
Brian Schimming says Republicans haven’t lost on enthusiasm.

Brian Schimming:
It’s great statewide for us.

Zac Schultz:
It’s just no longer a blowout.

Brian Schimming:
It’s very, very high out there. It has not ebbed at all since the convention. It’s really, really good. The Democrats have to make up for lost time. So, so what appears to be a jump in the enthusiasm gap on their end is more getting rid of Joe Biden.

Zac Schultz:
On Election Day, an enthusiastic vote counts just the same as a reluctant vote. But the campaigns hope an enthusiastic voter will bring nonvoters to the polls.

J.D. Vance:
I want you to try to be a force multiplier over these next 16 days because I don’t just want you to take yourself to the polls, I want every single person in this room to get nine of their friends and family to the polls with them.

Tim Walz:
And all of this energy and all of these rallies and all of the door knocks and all of the phone calls and all of the money have to translate into something so wonderful and so simple, that little “I Voted” sticker on more Wisconsin folks than ever before.

Zac Schultz:
Reporting from Madison, I’m Zac Schultz for “Here & Now.”