PBS News Hour

AMNA NAWAZ: Good evening.

I'm# Amna Nawaz.

Geoff Bennett is away.

On the "NewsHour" tonight: The U.S.

and Israel's# bombing campaign and Iran's retaliatory attacks## roil the region, while President Trump vows# to keep the war going as long as it takes.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States:# We continue this mission with ferocious,## unyielding resolve to crush the threat this# terrorist regime poses to the American people.

AMNA NAWAZ: Views from on the ground in Iran and# in Lebanon, where the conflict between Israel and## Hezbollah has reignited, and the global economic# fallout, starting with surging energy prices.

DAN PICKERING, Chief Investment Officer,# Pickering Energy Partners: We should## see relatively littl.. (BREAK) AMNA NAWAZ: Welcome to the "News Hour."

We're in the third day of the American and Israeli# war against Iran, and th.. now calling on Americans to evacuate more than# a dozen countries in the Middle East.

Today was## marked once again by punishing airstrikes# across the Islamic Republic.

In response,## Iran continues to widen the war, sending volleys# of missiles and rockets across the region,## targeting most of its Arab neighbors and Israel.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon announced that at least## six U.S.

service members have# been killed in reprisal attacks.

Nick Schifrin begins our coverage.

Today in Tehran, the epicenter of this# widening war, the plumes of smoke were## massive and the explosions thunderous, some of the# capital's streets engulfed in debris and dread,## entire buildings collapsed, a police# station converted into a carcass.

The## Iranian Red Crescent Society says# the war has killed more than 550.

One explosion hit one of Tehran's most prominent# hospitals.

Nurses evacuated babies in incubators.## The campaign is the largest in Israel's# history, targeting leadership and military.## And American Tomahawk missiles and airstrikes# are targeting Iran's missile infrastructure.

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United States:# We continue this mission with ferocious,## unyielding resolve to crush the threat this# terrorist regime poses to the American people.

NICK SCHIFRIN: The war also# threatens service members,## three American F-16s accidentally# shot down by Kuwaiti air defense.

MAN: No problem.

You are safe.

NICK SCHIFRIN: One female pilot# met by grateful Kuwaiti civilians.

MAN: No problem.

Thank you for helping us.

NICK SCHIFRIN: But U.S.

service# members were killed on this Kuwaiti## base when U.S.

officials say an Iranian# ballistic missile evaded its air defense.

MAN: Oh, my God.

NICK SCHIFRIN: In total, Iran has launched# more than 1,000 drones and missiles into Arab## countries, including its first ever attacks# on Gulf hotels and residences.

And, today, it## expanded those attacks to energy infrastructure,# including Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery.

And there was another attack today on a tanker# off the coast of Oman.

Today, Iran vowed to shut## down the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which# roughly one-fifth of the world's oil is traded.## And Israel expanded its own strikes into Lebanon.# After Iranian ally Hezbollah launched an attack## into Israel, Israeli jets pounded Beirut, killing# dozens and setting fire to residential buildings.

Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and# drones at Israel, including this attack## on Saturday west of Jerusalem that killed# nine.

Today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin## Netanyahu visited the site and reiterated his# goal, the elimination of the Iranian threat.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, Israeli Prime Minister: And# if this regime, this terrorist regime of the## kind we've never seen in the world, if they get# nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them,## ballistic missiles, intercontinental ballistic# missiles, they will threaten all of humanity.

NICK SCHIFRIN: At the Pentagon today, Secretary# Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan## Caine made clear the U.S.

military objectives were# limited to Iran's missiles and drones and navy.

PETE HEGSETH, U.S.

Defense Secretary: # This operation is a clear, devastating,## decisive mission, destroy the missile# threat, destroy the navy, no nukes.

GEN.

DAN CAINE, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of# Staff: Our mission is to protect and defend## ourselves and together with our regional# partners prevent Iran from the ability to## project power outside of its borders and be# ready for follow-on actions as appropriate.

DONALD TRUMP: They're never# going to have a nuclear weapon.

NICK SCHIFRIN: But, at the White House,# President Trump listed maximalist goals,## including the destruction of Iran's missile# capabilities, -- quote -- "annihilating## their navy," preventing Iran# from having a nuclear weapon,## and blocking Iran's arming, funding,# and directing regional proxies.

DONALD TRUMP: Whatever the time is, it's# OK.

Whatever it takes, we will always,## and we have -- right from the beginning, we# projected four to five weeks, but we have## capability to go far longer than that.

We also# projected four weeks to terminate the military## leadership.

And, as you know, that was done in# about an hour, so we're ahead of schedule there.

NICK SCHIFRIN: But in multiple# interviews since the weekend,## the president provided# varying timelines and goals.## He called the Venezuela model, where the U.S.# military captured President Nicolas Maduro,## but left intact his entire government, the# -- quote -- "perfect scenario" in Iran.

He said he had multiple choices to# lead Iran, but then he told ABC News:## "It's not going to be anybody that we were# thinking of because they are all dead."

He## told "The Atlantic" he'd agreed to resume# negotiations, but a senior administration## official later clarified the president# would negotiate -- quote -- "eventually."

Simultaneously, Trump said Iranians would# -- quote -- "obviously have an opportunity## to overthrow the government," the exact# opposite of negotiations to keep the regime.

This evening, Secretary of State Marco# Rubio said there were no contradictions## between limited military goals# and expansive long-term vision.

MARCO RUBIO, U.S.

Secretary of State: The# objectives of this operation are to destroy## their ballistic missile capability and make sure# they can't rebuild it and make sure that they## can't hide behind that to have a nuclear program.# That's the objective of the mission.

That said,## abundantly clear we would love for there to be an# Iran that's not governed by radical Shia clerics.

NICK SCHIFRIN: And, tonight, President# Trump warned in an interview with CNN## that the biggest wave of U.S.

strikes,# Amna, is -- quote -- "coming soon."

AMNA NAWAZ: Nick, tell us more about the# goals of this war and some of those varying## contradicting statements you just laid# out.

What are U.S.

officials telling you?

NICK SCHIFRIN: So, the key is what# you just heard there from Rubio.

The U.S.

military is destroying Iran's missiles# drones and navy.

Their mission stops there.## U.S.

officials reject the Colin Powell# Pottery Barn model, if you break it,## you own it.

But the long-term goal is still# regime change.

So how do you square that circle?

U.S.

officials tell me by focusing on a# change in the regime, rather than a change## of the regime.

So if Iran gave in to all of# the U.S.

demands at the negotiating table,## that would achieve U.S.

goals.

Or if the Iranian# people overthrew the government in some kind of## insurgency after the U.S.-Israeli military# campaign, that would also achieve the goals.

And here's the thing.

U.S.

officials# I talked to say they don't have to## choose between these two things.# And that's extraordinary, because,## on the one hand, you have relatively# limited military goals for an operation,## and on the other, you have this vision that# would require some messy, likely long-term,## very difficult insurgency, frankly, that the U.S.# or Israel would have to keep going and fomenting.

So that's the reality, though, Amna, of# the Trump era.

The president wants options,## and so they believe they do not have to# make the choice.

And the criticism of that,## of course, is that Iran shows# no willingness to negotiate.

And## unless there's some kind of plan to help# Iranians rise up, the mission will fail.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, you have some new# reporting on a key question in all of this,## which is why the war started when# it did.

What have you learned?

NICK SCHIFRIN: U.S.

officials confirmed# to me the U.S.

intelligence community## provided Israel the location of the# supreme leader on Saturday morning,## alongside some of his most senior leaders.

And so Israel started the war with an initial# strike that hit that compound that we saw## on Saturday.

But Secretary of State Rubio# today also argued essentially the opposite,## that the U.S.

didn't have a# choice when to start the war## because the military had to go when it did# because of both Israeli and Iranian plans.

MARCO RUBIO: We knew that there was going# to be an Israeli action.

We knew that that## would precipitate an attack against# American forces.

And we knew that,## if we didn't preemptively go after them# before they launched those attacks,## we would suffer higher casualties and# perhaps even higher those killed.

And then## we would all be here answering questions# about why we knew that and didn't act.

NICK SCHIFRIN: So, to underline, Amna,## this is now a war simultaneously started# to American intellig.. Israel and a war that Israel would have# started anyway, so the U.S.

had to act.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, as we reported# earlier, the U.S.

tonight has issued## evacuation orders for more than a dozen# countries.

What more do we know about that?

NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes, let's# take a look at this graphic,## this tweet that was just# posted by the State Department.

"Depart now from the countries listed below# using available commercial transportation## due to serious safety risk."

Bahrain, Egypt,# Iran, Iraq, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, Jordan,## Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,# Syria, UAE, and Yemen.

That is 14 countries.

I just talked to a former senior official.# As far as this person knows, this has never,## ever been done before.

We are talking about# hundreds of thousands or millions of Americans## who are getting this message tonight, and we# will certainly stay on this to figure out whether## there's going to be any facilitating either by the# military or the State Department to get them out.

But, clearly, the message is,# take civilian transportation,but,## as we have been talking about, many of# these airports in the region already closed.

AMNA NAWAZ: Nick Schifrin,# beginning our coverage once again.

Nick, thank you.

Well, for more now on how the White House# and Congress are responding to the strikes,## I'm joined now by our White House correspondent,## Liz Landers, and our congressional# correspondent, Lisa Desjardins.

So, Liz, kick us off here.

We saw# President Trump make his first public## appearance today since the war began# over the weekend.

What did he say?

LIZ LANDERS: Right.

This was the first public event that the#president has had since this started.

It#was a Medal of Honor ceremony that he had# in the East Room of the White House.

And,## as Nick pointed out in his reporting there, we# really heard for the first time the objectives## that the administration, that the president# is laying out here for these attacks on Iran.

However, the way that the president has gone# about explaining this to the public has been## nontraditional.

He and his allies like to# say he's a nontraditional president.

We## have seen these TRUTH Social videos that# he has recorded and posted over the last## few days.

He's also done a number# of phone calls with journalists.

He's talked with CNN, "The Atlantic."

And# earlier today, he spoke with The New York## Post and saying something that would# impact a lot of people, of course, is,## he was asked if he would send U.S.

troops on# the ground there to the region.

And he said,## if they were necessary, so not ruling that out.

Reporters in the room trying to ask questions# of him as he left.

I tried to ask a question## of the president.

He did not talk to# reporters today at the White House.

AMNA NAWAZ: As you know, Liz, this is# a president who ran on an America-first## platform, no new foreign wars.

How is# all of this resonating with his base?

LIZ LANDERS: This was a huge part# of why people liked him.

And when## I reported on the 2016, 2020, and 2024 campaigns,## a lot of the MAGA base said that they really# supported this part of the president's agenda.

Today, we're seeing some backlash from# some of these MAGA conservative voices## and commentators.

People like Tucker Carlson# called the attack -- quote -- "absolutely## disgusting and evil" in an interview over# the weekend.

We also heard from former## Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a very# close former ally of the president, no longer.

She said on X, she said: "We voted# for America-first and zero wars."

He is getting some defense, though, from# far right activists like Laura Loomer,## who we know she does talk to the president# occasionally.

She is defending these actions.## But when you also look more broadly at how# the American public is responding to this,## we're starting to get some polling.

Reuters and Ipsos did a poll post these attacks.# It showed that only 27 per.. approved of the U.S.

strikes that killed# Iran's leader; 43 percent disapproved of## the Iran strikes; 29 percent said that they were# not sure.

More than half, 56 percent of Americans,## said that they believe that the president# is too willing to use military force.

So, Amna, the president definitely still has# some selling to do to the American public.

AMNA NAWAZ: So, Lisa, that's where the# American public is.

What about Congress,## the branch responsible for war?

Where# are they on the U.S.

attacks in Iran?

LISA DESJARDINS: As Nick reported,## Secretary of State Rubio was up on the Hill# talking to the t.. And I want to point out something he# said to the press before he went in.## He made the argument that the president not# only doesn't need authority from Congress,## but he didn't even need to# notify all of Congress.

Listen.

MARCO RUBIO, U.S.

Secretary of State: There's# no law that requires the president to have done## anything with regards to this.

To begin with, no# president, presidential administration has ever## accepted the War Powers Act as constitutional, not# Republican presidents, not Democratic presidents.

That said, we have followed the notification# at 48 hours, and we're here today.

LISA DESJARDINS: Now, the War Powers Act is not## just significant because of# the notification requirement,## but because it limits presidents to having this# kind of conflict power for just 60 to 90 days.

And what Rubio is saying here is what other# presidents said before.

They're ignoring,## that he's going to keep this up as long as# they want.

Now, as for Congress themselves,## it was remarkable that he said this just# days before we expect a vote in the House## over whether Congress should block action# in Iran without congressional approval.

It is a tough vote, especially for some Democrats.# There are some very pro-Israel Democrats that are## nervous about the situation.

They want to support# Israel.

There are others who are Article I kind## of constitutionalist Democrats that are# not sure what to do and on the front line.

Right now, I don't think that# has the votes to pass the House,## but it is going to be a vote to watch.

AMNA NAWAZ: Well, we know DHS funding# is in question right now.

There's a## government -- partial government shutdown.# Will the Iran action impact that at all?

LISA DESJARDINS: The short answer is# no.

It doesn't seem to be.

Democrats## are still digging in.

They say we may have# something overseas that we need to pay very## close attention to that's significant, but# that doesn't change the issues that we have.

Now, what could change is when more people start## missing paychecks.

That is# still a week-and-a-half away.

AMNA NAWAZ: Lisa Desjardins,# Liz Landers, thank you so much.

Let's go now to special correspondent Reza# Sayah in Tehran.

Reza joins us on the phone.

Reza, now this third straight day of# U.S.

and Israeli strikes in Iran.

Just## give us a sense of what you're seeing and# what you're hearing on the ground there.

REZA SAYAH: Amna, as I'm talking# to you right now, I'm hearing the## unnerving sound of jet fighters flying over# Tehran and massive earth-shaking explosions.

They started around 12: 00 midnight local time,# and it's continued for the next 90 minutes, so,## again, multiple explosions in what sounds like# anti-aircraft.

And one other thing that I need## to point out is, around 1:30 a.m., the Internet# access was cut off.

And that's kind of unusual.

When this war started, the government cut# off the Internet.

There was only access to## the national network.

It was a closed network.# But using VPN, virtual private network, I was## able to get access to the international network.# That stopped around 1:30 am local time.

Was it## related to these latest airstrikes that started# around midnight?

It's not clear, but no Internet.

That's why I'm talking to you on the phone.# Earlier today, more airstrikes, intense## airstrikes targeting the heart of the city.# Israeli officials have repeatedly said they're## targeting the security apparatus, buildings# related to the military, Revolutionary Guard.

But, increasingly, we are seeing on the# ground non-military targets either being## hit or severely damaged, hospitals.

We had a# school on Saturday.

Earlier today, I went to## a major square here where a# police headquarters was hit.## The police station was destroyed, but surrounding# it were scores of residential buildings.

They too, they were either destroyed or severely# damaged.

I went to a cafe across from the police## station, talked to a patron there who was there# during the airstrike.

He was smoking a hookah## when the missiles hit.

He showed me some gruesome# video of a fellow patron with his head severed.

And he described what sounded like a# double-tap strike, where he said the## initial strike wasn't much, wasn't much# of an explosion, a few minutes later,## massive explosion.

And that gives you an idea# of the cycle of violence we're experiencing.

AMNA NAWAZ: Reza, let me ask you about# what we have heard from U.S.

officials,## because President Trump claimed yesterday# that Tehran had reached out to talk and## to negotiate.

Today, he warned of a -- quote,# unquote -- "big wave" of strikes yet to come,## and he didn't rule out U.S.

troops on the ground.

What's been Tehran's response to all of this?

REZA SAYAH: Tehran's response is no# talks and they're going to keep fighting.

Just keep in mind, from Tehran's point# of view, there's no trust.

This is the## second time they're in the middle# of negotiations.

Without warning,## they have been under attack.

And they# have tried to project resilience.

Ali Larijani, the secretary of# the National Security Council,## in a statement saying they're not going to# negotiate with terrorists.

The foreign minister,## Abbas Araghchi, saying that they have learned# lessons from U.S.

defeats in the region,## and they're going to use these lessons in this# war.

They're going to decide how the war ends.

So they're projecting resilience,# toughness.

And seemingly, in the## region, they're carrying out an aggressive# campaign targeting U.S.

bases, U.S.

assets,## Gulf states, military bases.

And they're also# saying they're targeting hotels because they## have intelligence that U.S.

servicemen# have left the bases to go to the hotels.

AMNA NAWAZ: That is our special correspondent,## Reza Sayah, joining us tonight# on the phone from Tehran, Iran.

Reza, thank you.

Now for a look at the wider region, let's# turn to our special correspondent in Lebanon,## a country being dragged back into conflict# as Hezbollah has resumed attacks on Israel.

Simona Foltyn is coming to us from the# outskirts of the capital city of Beirut.

And, Simona, we know those Hezbollah# attacks on Israel come more than a## year after a cease-fire deal that# went into place after the 2024 war,## a war that left Hezbollah very much weakened.# Why would they decide to attack now?

SIMONA FOLTYN: Well, Amna, Hezbollah would# have weighed its domestic interests with## its desire or duty to support its# main regional ally and backer, Iran.

And based on this reaction, it seems# that the latter interests prevailed.## Now, there is a big question mark about# the military value of this attack.

It## was pretty symbolic.

The rockets were# intercepted and inflicted very limited,## if any damage on the Israeli side, whereas# the IDF's response was much more devastating.

Now, of course, as you mentioned,## Hezbollah has been significantly weakened# in the last full-scale war with Israel.

AMNA NAWAZ: You mentioned that IDF response# to the Hezbollah latest attacks.

They have## killed more than 50 people in and# around Beirut, tens of thousands of## people again being displaced from Southern# Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs.

Tell us a little bit more about the impact# and also the reaction from inside Lebanon.

SIMONA FOLTYN: Well, the impact# has been quite devastating,## especially for Hezbollah's own constituents.

There has been, again,# another wave of displacement,## large-scale bombardment of villages in the# south, as well as Beirut's southern suburbs.## So it has caused once again displacement, once# again panic, once again a lot of uncertainty## about whether this country will once# again be plunged into full-scale war.

But what is perhaps most noteworthy is# the governments' reactions.

Earlier today,## following an emergency cabinet session,# Prime Minister Nawaf Salam announced a ban## on Hezbollah military and intelligence activities.# And this is quite unprecedented in this country,## because previously the group was somehow# recognized as the so-called resistance,## as being part of the country's defenses.

So, essentially, with this government# decision, Hezbollah has become somewhat## of an outlawed group, at least# when it comes to its military wing.

AMNA NAWAZ: Simona, we know you also# lived in Dubai for many years.

Of course,## you reported from the region for years.

These fears of a widening regional war,# how big are they?

How real are they?

SIMONA FOLTYN: Well, this is quite# an unprecedented situation in the## region and especially in the Gulf# countries.

If you look at places## like the United Arab Emirates or# Qatar, these are countries that## were considered safe havens for Arabs and Muslims# who were fleeing conflict elsewhere in the region.

So this is something that these countries have not# really seen.

Now, so far, the air defense systems## that have been supplied by the United States# have managed to intercept most of the Iranian## missiles that have been targeting these places.# So the human casualties have been relatively low.

But these countries are being hit where it hurts# the most.

And that's their economic engines.

Just## to give you a sense of -- for example, Dubai's# airport is the second largest in the world.## Its Jebel Ali port is the ninth largest# shipping port in the world.

And now## essentially all of the economic activity# in the Gulf region has come to a halt.

Airspace is closed.

We have seen# footage of five-star hotels being## hit with debris.

We have seen# ports being targeted.

We have## seen oil installations being targeted.# So all of that is quite significant.

AMNA NAWAZ: That is special correspondent Simona# Foltyn joining us from outside Beirut, Lebanon.

Simona, thank you.

Let's shift our focus now to the war's impact# on the global energy market.

Oil and gas prices## spike today as the regional conflict escalated and# shipping was disrupted in the Strait of Hormuz.

About 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied# natural gas flows through the strait every day,## making it one of the most crucial# oil supply routes on the planet.

William Brangham joins us now with more.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Amna, at least five# tankers have been damaged in the vicinity## of the strait since Saturday, and traffic slowed# dramatically there over the weekend.

Separately,## Iranian drones continue to attack energy# infrastructure in different Arab Gulf states.## Today, those attacks damaged an# oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and## halted the production of liquid# natural gas, or LNG, in Qatar.

So to help us understand these impacts# and implications, we are joined by Dan## Pickering.

He's the chief investment# officer at Pickering Energy Partners,## which is a financial services and advisory# firm that is focused on the energy industry.

Dan, thank you so much for being here.

Let's pick apart some of these different impacts,## first on the markets.

What# happened with oil prices today?

DAN PICKERING, Chief Investment Officer,# Pickering Energy Partners: Yes, William,## we had a strong rally at oil pric.. WTI, the U.S.

benchmark, was about $72# a barrel.

It was actually up less than## many people expected.

So the markets did# better, the broad stock markets did better,## and oil didn't rise quite as much# as expected, but still up strongly.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And we mentioned the# importance of the Strait of Hormuz and## the attacks and the trickiness of what's going on## there right now.

What do we know is# the latest happening in the strait?

DAN PICKERING: Yes, the latest# is essentially tanker traffic has## slowed to almost nothing.

Some vessels,# primarily Iranian vessels, are continuing## to move through the strait.

But because it's# dangerous, because there have been attacks,## there's not a lot of oil moving through# there.

And as we know, it is a big choke## point for global supply; 20 percent of# global supply comes through the straits.

And it's essentially shut down right now.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I mean, obviously, this is# the main route.

That's why everyone has been## using it for so many years.

Is there or are there# any alternate routes to get that oil to market?

DAN PICKERING: For oil, there are# some other pipeline export routes,## maybe five million barrels a day, so, remember,# 20 million through the straits.

Perhaps five## million of it can get to market other ways.

So 15# percent of supply is trapped behind the straits.

On the gas side of the equation, there# really is no other output for Qatar's## liquefied natural gas.

And so that is# kind of 100 percent blocked right now.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Do you have# a sense of what Iran could do## to both increase the pressure on the# limited traffic that's going through,## and what might the Americans or allies# do to alleviate that choke point?

DAN PICKERING: When we think# about what could happen from here,## if Iran wants to ratchet up the tensions, it# probably wouldn't be in the Straits of Hormuz,## where they have already had# a big effect slowing traffic.

It would be lashing out at the energy# infrastructure of the other Gulf states,## so attacking Saudi Arabia's capabilities,# attacking Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab## Emirates.

So I think that the actions that# the U.S.

and the allies would likely take## will be to try and safeguard the straits, whether# using doing that militarily with escorts and/or## aerial support, and potentially creating a# financial backstop that would allow tanker## traffic to move through without fear# that the damage would be uninsured.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Right.

I mean, you mentioned some of .. those already.

What does this say about# the state of the conflict that Iran is## right now reaching out, trying to attack# those other states and other refineries?

DAN PICKERING: I think it says# this is clearly different than## what we saw in June, obviously, a much bigger## conflict and one in which Iran is prepared# to fight back, and fight back aggressively.

I would say, though, that the first 48, 72# hours are very important, and no significant## infrastructure damage has happened across the# Middle East.

And so I think we have to feel good## that there hasn't been more damage or# more impact.

And my expectation is,## we will probably fix the Straits# of Hormuz within the next 10 days.

And so this is absolutely a flash point# in time, but one that is probably going## to ease in terms of risk as we move# through the next week to two weeks.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I want to ask you about this# one.

There was one attack on an LNG facility,## liquid natural gas facility, in Qatar.

And European gas prices surged# quite dramatically after that.## How significant is the loss of that one# facility or an attack on that one facility?

DAN PICKERING: Yes, Qatar, they're# 20 percent of global LNG supply,## and it all flows through the straits.# And so when you take 20 percent offline,## which has happened now, not# damage to the facility, per se,## but just forced to shut in because they can't# export their gas, 20 percent is a big impact.

So, European prices escalated.

A lot of that LNG# goes to Asia.

And so those shortages will be felt## in the next call it month or so.

But European# prices react because the whole global market has## now tightened.

Not a lot of excess LNG capacity# around the world to offset those shut-ins.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: I mean, I know we are# in early days and all of these things are## predictions at this point.

Do you have# any sense as to whether or not and when## American consumers might feel the# ripple effects of this conflict?

DAN PICKERING: Yes, I think we're# very lucky here in the United States,## from the perspective that, because of the# shale revolution, because of the fact that## the U.S.

has become the world's largest# oil producer at 14 million barrels a day## and a very significant gas producer,# we're pretty self-sufficient here.

And so we should be relatively insulated from# what's happening.

Global prices will impact U.S.## prices, but oil in the 70s, gasoline prices should# stay relatively muted.

So unless things escalate## from here, we should see relatively little# impact in the U.S., unless things escalate.

WILLIAM BRANGHAM: All right, that is Dan# Pickering of Pickering Energy Partners.

Thank you so much for being here.

DAN PICKERING: Glad to be here.

AMNA NAWAZ: ## For additional perspective on all the latest# developments, we turn now to our panel of experts.

Holly Dagres is a senior fellow at the# Washington Institute for Near East Policy.## That's a Washington think tank.

She spent her# teenage years in Tehran and now curates The## Iranist.

That's a weekly Substack newsletter.# Alan Eyre served in the U.S.

government for## four decades.

He was part of the Obama# administration's negotiating team for the## Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, deal# with Iran.

He's now at the Middle East Institute.

And retired Colonel Joel Rayburn served# in the Army for 26 years.

During the## first Trump administration, he was on the# National Security Council staff focusing## on Iran in the Middle East.

He's now a# senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

Thank you all for being here.

Holly, I will begin with you because we# have seen in our reporting an.. of messaging from the administration,# President Trump calling for regime## change a couple of days ago, Secretary# of Defense Hegseth now saying it's not## about regime change.

What's your reaction to# that and how is all that resonating in Iran?

HOLLY DAGRES, Senior Fellow, The Washington# Institute for Near East Policy: Well,## the messages, they are conflicting.

And it is a bit disturbing, because the sense# that some Iranians on the ground got was that## they were actually going to see some sort of# change inside the country.

And this was started,## of course, with that unprecedented# massacre in January and President## Trump saying that help is on the# way, take over your institutions.

And it seems that we're hearing from# senior U.S.

officials that they do## want the Iranian people to take control of# their own future, but, at this juncture,## much of the clerical establishment's still# in power, so it's hard to envision that.

And just on the note that President Donald Trump## said that he would very much like to see# a Venezuela model and he's -- granted,## he said three of his top choices were killed# in the past three days, but, in January,## Iranians were really worried about that# prospect because they do not want this regime.

So any kind of deal of that sort with a# different face of the Islamic Republic## would be contrary to what most of the# anti-regime Iranian population stands for.

AMNA NAWAZ: Colonel Rayburn, what do you# make of that, the prospects of someone in## the current regime stepping up to take over?# Is that a potential plan and is it a good one?

COL.

JOEL RAYBURN (RET.

), Former Trump# National Security Council Staff: Well,## whether it's a good one or not I think woul.. couple of weeks goes in terms of whether that# could result -- whether you could actually have## the remnants of the current regime that# actually had the credibility and the capacity## to stabilize the country on terms that would be# acceptable to the United States and our allies.

I think that's a -- that's a serious question.# Militarily speaking, though, the outcome of this## confrontation I think is a foregone conclusion.# So you're going to wind up in any case with## the remnants of a regime there in Tehran that I# think don't have the military wherewithal to do## anything other than capitulate at some point on# the terms that the president is going to offer.

AMNA NAWAZ: Alan, what do you make of# that and also the prospects of people## in Iran rising up?

Do you see that happening?

ALAN EYRE, Middle East Institute: I# think it's a -- possibly.

I wouldn't## characterize it as the remnants of the regime.

The regime is more than just the individuals,# some of whom may live through this,## many of whom will not.

It's institutions.# And I see no indication that currently those## institutions are weak or fraying or that you# can destroy these institutions from the air.

So in terms of regime change, for that to# happen, two things would have to happen.## The current institutions, interlocking# institutions, like the IRGC, the Islamic## Revolutionary Guard Corps, would have to# be destroyed kinetically from the air,## which I think is improbable, and then you# would have to have a substitute, interlinking,## functional series of institutions to plug in its# place.

And I think that's even more improbable.

So I think the most likely outcome# is, after four weeks or so,## you will have a vastly degraded command# structure in the Islamic Republic,## but the core institutions in one# way or another will still remain.

AMNA NAWAZ: Colonel, the U.S.

president has not## ruled out U.S.

troops on the# ground.

Is that a good idea?

COL.

JOEL RAYBURN (RET.

): Well, I think# President Trump is somebody that likes to## keep his options open.

He likes strategic# ambiguity.

He wouldn't like to rule out,## I think, a military option# this early in a campaign.

But I think the objectives that have been laid# out so far by the president, by Secretary of State## Rubio, and then very clearly today by General# Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs,## those are some very clear military objectives of# finishing the elimination of the Iranian regime's## nuclear program, eliminating its ballistic# missile capability, eliminating the IRGC navy,## the part of the regime that has the mission of# just potentially disrupting the Strait of Hormuz## and the Persian Gulf, and then severing# its ties with its militant proxies.

And as Chairman Caine put# it very interestingly today,## I think it's the first time someone stated# what the mission of the theater command is,## the operational command, U.S.

Central# Command.

He said it was essentially to## prevent the Iranian regime or Iran from having# the ability to project power beyond its borders.

That's a very clear kind of end state if you# -- so it says the military phase of that,## you could have, as Alan wouldn't# say, the remnants of a regime in## Tehran that are still there somehow,# somewhat intact, but have no ability## to damage the region beyond their# borders or international security.

AMNA NAWAZ: Holly, we have heard more from U.S.# officials about justification in the original## U.S.

and Israeli attacks.

Does that line up# for you in terms of what they're saying, that## there was a potential imminent threat, that the# U.S.

is acting both defensively and proactively?

HOLLY DAGRES: I mean, we're getting# a lot of mixed messaging right now.## And it just -- I'm not entirely sure what# exactly led to this, because, essentially,## if we remember, there was a massacre# in January, and it was that reason that## Trump wanted to respond to that.

And he sent# assets into the region for that very reason.

AMNA NAWAZ: You're referencing the# regime cracking down on protesters.

HOLLY DAGRES: Yes, the anti-regime# uprising in January.

And, before that,## we heard in December Israeli Prime# Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during## his meeting with President Donald Trump saying# that ballistic missiles were a very big issue.

So it seems like the goalposts are# moving around frequently about what## the modus operandi of this war# was.

And it seems like it's a## very different from why assets were# moved in January to where it is now.

AMNA NAWAZ: Alan, is it clear to you,# three days in now, and as the president## projects that this is a campaign that could go# on four to five weeks, what the objectives are?

ALAN EYRE: I think this administration# is trying to justify the war the same## way Jackson Pollock used to paint.# You just throw a bucket of reasons## up against the canvas and# hope the result looks good.

It said, for example, there's an imminent threat# to the U.S.

Well, the intelligence community said## that the Iranian nuclear weapons program stopped# in 2003.

President Trump said the underlying## Iranian nuclear energy program was obliterated# June of last year, and it's still under rubble.

OK, missiles.

Iranian missiles are a threat# to the United States.

That falls short of the## truth by about 4,000 miles, OK?So you# then go to the other set of reasons.## This is a preventative war because Iran is# hostile and might one day be a real threat.

Well, if that's the case, if# we're doing preventative wars## now to prevent countries that might one# day be a threat, is North Korea in line,## is China in line, is Russia# in line?

I don't think so.

So, as Holly said, I can't make# head or tails out of the reason## this administration has put forward for this war.

AMNA NAWAZ: Colonel, I will ask you# to respond to what we just heard from## Alan.

Are these other countries# in line if this is the reasoning?

COL.

JOEL RAYBURN (RET.

): Well,# no, look, as I have said before,## we're in a post-October 7 environment here.

The Iranian regime posed a very real,# concrete threat to the region around it,## to Israel and other of our allies by joining that# war on October 8.

And really Hamas used on October## 7 the capability that the Iranian regime equipped# it with over a course of more than 15 years.

So I think October 7, October 8, then the missile# attacks in 2024, 2025 by the Iranians on Israel,## this is the culmination of what was Ali# Khamenei's very aggressive, very hostile## foreign policy in the region and beyond.

They# were -- they continued to intervene in European## security by providing the Russians with the# military means to attack Ukrainian cities.

So this is a regime that was posing a# threat to U.S.

interests, U.S.

allies,## not just in the region, but beyond.

So I don't# think they were just sitting there not doing any## harm and then the Trump administration# decided out of nowhere to attack them.

AMNA NAWAZ: Lots more to cover in the# days and weeks ahead, it looks like.

Alan Eyre, Colonel Joel Rayburn,# Holly Dagres, thank you very much.

COL.

JOEL RAYBURN (RET.

): Thank you, Amna.

AMNA NAWAZ: ## We start the day's other headlines in Texas.

Authorities are investigating a deadly shooting# at an Austin bar this weekend as a potential## act of terrorism.

The accused shooter,# a 53-year-old naturalized U.S.

citizen,## was wearing a sweatshirt with an Iranian flag# design and the words "Property of Allah."

At least two people were killed and# 14 injured when he allegedly opened## fire from a car window shortly before# 2:00 a.m.

on Sunday.

Law enforcement## said today they're working with# federal officials to determine## a motive and whether there are any# direct ties to the U.S.

war in Iran.

LISA DAVIS, Austin, Texas, Police Chief:# We're thinking about events and what's## occurring in the country as well.

And so in# addition to the fact that this was a huge,## complex scene, we're calling in those federal# partners to take a look at that as well.

AMNA NAWAZ: Police shot and killed the gunman,## with the mayor of Austin saying their quick# response helped to prevent further bloodshed.

The Supreme Court today seemed to lean# towards loosening a federal law that## bars drug users from owning# guns.

During oral arguments,## both liberal and conservative justices# appeared to support a Texas man who argued## he shouldn't have been charged with a crime# because he owns a gun and uses marijuana.

It's the same law that led to Hunter# Biden's conviction in 2024 before he## was pardoned by his father, then-President# Joe Biden.

Critics fear such a ruling could## put guns in the hands of serious drug users.# A decision is expected by the end of June.

In New York today, a court battle got under# way that could have a major impact on the## music industry.

The Justice Department claims# that concert giant Live Nation is running an## illegal monopoly after merging with rival# Ticketmaster in 2010.

Officials claim the## combined company uses its power to limit# competition and drive up ticket prices.

Live Nation denies this, saying that the market is# more competitive than officials have claimed.

The## lawsuit was filed during the Biden administration# in 2024, making this a rare instance of the Trump## DOJ following through on a Biden era case.

The# trial is expected to last at least a month.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning# to abandon its efforts to target a number of## law firms seen as foes of the president.

That's# according to multiple media outlets and represents## a dramatic U-turn for the government.

The Justice# Department is expected to drop its appeals in## four cases after the firms successfully sued to# have punishing measures against them blocked.

The order signed by President Trump last# year would have severely hampered their## ability to do their work, sending# shivers through the industry.

A## number of firms struck deals with the# administration, rather than fight back.

French President Emmanuel Macron says# his country will increase the size of## its nuclear arsenal for the first time in# decades.

Speaking at a military base that## hosts his country's nuclear-armed submarines,# Macron also said France will temporarily allow## the deployment of nuclear-armed jets to# allies like the U.K., Germany and Poland.

His announcement comes amid growing concerns about## Russian military aggression and ongoing# political tensions with Washington.

EMMANUEL MACRON, French President# (through translator): To be free,## one must be feared.

And to be# feared, one .. This increase in our arsenal attests# to this.

As for our American allies,## their recent national security and defense# strategy shows a rearrangement of American## priorities and a strong encouragement for Europe# to take more direct care of its own security.

AMNA NAWAZ: France currently has# fewer than 300 nuclear warheads,## which ranks at fourth worldwide and far behind# the likes of the U.S.

and Russia.

Macron did not## signal how many more France will be adding, but# it will be the first increase since at least 1992.

Officials in South Sudan say at least 169 people# were killed after insurgents raided a remote## village in the country's far north.

The attack# took place yesterday in Abiemnom County near the## Sudan border.

Local officials say 90 civilians# were killed, including women and children.

The U.S.

-- U.N.

mission in South Sudan says# that some 1,000 people sought shelter at its## base after the attack.

Killings are part# of an escalating wave of violence between## forces loyal to the current president# and those backing an opposition leader,## putting the country on the# verge of an all-out civil war.

On Wall Street today stocks raced their# earlier losses to end largely unchanged.## The Dow Jones industrial average posted a# modest loss of just 73 points.

The Nasdaq## managed a small gain of around 80 points.# The S&P 500 closed the day roughly flat.

And we will be back shortly.

But, first, take a moment to hear from# your local PBS station.

It.. to offer your support, which helps to# keep programs like this one on the air.

For those of you staying with us,## tomorrow, voters head to the polls in# Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas.

But it's in the Lone Star State where competitive## races on both sides of the aisle# have fueled unprecedented spending.

Political correspondent Lisa Desjardins has more# on what's at stake in Texas' U.S.

Senate race.

(CHEERING) LISA DESJARDINS: Welcome to the race# for the U.S.

Senate, Texas-sized,## with two larger-than-life# primaries, one in each party.

SEN.

JOHN CORNYN (R-TX): Character is on# the ballot.

I believe voters still care## about their elected officials, and they# want people who will tell them the truth.

LISA DESJARDINS: The incumbent, Republican# John Cornyn, faces two other Texas lawmakers,## Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman# Wesley Hunt.

It's the fight of his 24-year career.

TONY PLOHETSKI, The Austin-American# Statesman: He's tried and true in## the minds of many voters in Texas.

LISA DESJARDINS: Tony Plohetski is a# journalist with The Austin-American Statesman.

Cornyn is running as experienced# and battle-tested.

However,## while he was once ranked among the# most conservative senators, now?

TONY PLOHETSKI: Paxton and his voters# and his supporters have really been## able to nurture this idea that John# Cornyn has not been hard right enough.

LISA DESJARDINS: Paxton's policies are ultra-MAGA.

KEN PAXTON (R), Texas Senatorial# Candidate: I want you to know,## I'm not going up to Washington,# D.C., to join the swamp club.

LISA DESJARDINS: As A.G., Paxton emphatically# enforced the state's abortion ban and filed## the lawsuit challenging the 2020# presidential election result.

MAN: Attorney General Paxton, please rise.

LISA DESJARDINS: But he has faced sharp scrutiny.# In 2023, the Texas House passed 20 articles of## impeachment against Paxton for bribery and# abuse of power with charges that he had an## affair and got the woman a job as part of a quid# pro quo.

The state Senate narrowly acquitted him,## but his wife filed for divorce,# and Cornyn has put out this new ad.

NARRATOR: Crooked Ken Paxton cheated on his# wife.

She's divorcing him on biblical grounds.

LISA DESJARDINS: It is personal,# and Paxton responded so.

WOMAN: My dad is a really good guy.

He loves God,# he loves his family, and he loves this country.

LISA DESJARDINS: With his daughter,# son-in-law, grandkids, and him on FaceTime.

Plohetski says it may work.

TONY PLOHETSKI: He has successfully# dodged and overcome so many allegations,## and yet the MAGA base in particular# has continued to support him.

LISA DESJARDINS: But what about the MAGA chief?

DONALD TRUMP, President of the United# States: Well, thank you very much,## everybody.

I'm thrilled to be# back in the great state of Te.. LISA DESJARDINS: President Donald# Trump seems to be endorsing everyone.

DONALD TRUMP: We have a great attorney# general, Ken Paxton.

Where's Ken?

Hi, Ken.## Hi, Ken.

And we have a great senator,# John Cornyn.

Hi, John.

Thank you, John.

LISA DESJARDINS: For example, Friday.

DONALD TRUMP: And another friend# of mine who's doing very well,## Wesley Hunt.

Where's Wesley?# Wesley Hunt.

Doing a good job.

LISA DESJARDINS: As for Hunt, his dogged,# crisscrossing of the state may mean neither## Paxton nor Cornyn can get a majority, which would# force a run-off in may.

All that is again raising## Texas Democrats' hopes, even as they face# their own brutal battle between electeds,## Austin Statehouse Representative James Talarico# and Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett.

REP.

JASMINE CROCKETT (D-TX), SENATORIAL# CANDIDATE: You're spending more taxpayer## resources arresting journalists than you# are prosecuting pedophiles.. LISA DESJARDINS: On Capitol Hill,# Crockett is a rhetorical brawler,## known for not pulling punches,# as seen with A.G.

Pam Bondi.

REP.

JASMINE CROCKETT: I completely don't get# how it is that you're sitting at the top of DOJ,## because you don't seem to be good at your job.

LISA DESJARDINS: She argues Democrats in# Texas and across the country want a fighter.

REP.

JASMINE CROCKETT: Right now,## people are not happy with .. want is someone who is going to be unafraid# in the face of what we are facing right now.

STATE REP.

JAMES TALARICO (D-TX),# Senatorial Candidate: We have to## win in November.

I think.. LISA DESJARDINS: Talarico differs# little from Crockett on policy,## but enormously on style.

He leans# into God and does not throw elbows.

STATE REP.

JAMES TALARICO: My faith teaches me# that love is the strongest force in the universe.

LISA DESJARDINS: Talarico rose to# national prominence when he and## other state Democrats left Texas# to delay GOP remapping efforts.

STEPHEN COLBERT, Host, "The Late Show# With Stephen Colbert": It's not the## first time you have caus.. LISA DESJARDINS: More recently, he benefited after# CBS blocked his interview with late-night hos.. Stephen Colbert.

It went on YouTube instead, and# Talarico raised more than $2 million the next day.

For Democrats, it's an important# decision about who is stronger## and who is more electable.

And it could# offer guideposts for Democrats nationally,## including with Hispanic voters, with# whom Trump saw major gains in 2024.

TONY PLOHETSKI: We have seen President Trump's# very aggressive immigration policies.

What we know## is that a lot of those Hispanic voters appear to# be shifting and walking away from the president.

But, in addition to even the immigration issue,## they say is that the president has not delivered# in the way that they were hoping in the economy.

LISA DESJARDINS: Democrats are raising cash# and expectations in a high-stakes year.

INGRID BOND, Voter: I'm hopeful that the country# is going to decide and Texans will decide that## this has gone too far and that there will be# a change in the direction of our policies.

LISA DESJARDINS: But that does not change their## recent reality.

No Democrat has won# statewide in more than 30 years.

TONY PLOHETSKI: There is so much hope# and enthusiasm going into this race that## this may be the time.

But keep in mind,# Democrats in Texas are consistently used## to having their hearts broken.

They think# that, every race, it could happen.

Yes,## there is a path, but that path# is certainly not a straight path.

LISA DESJARDINS: To win, both parties are# pushing the opponent they want.

The governor and## Republican interest groups are sending texts and# ads to boost Crockett.

Speaking with Democrats,## they largely think Paxton gives them the best# chance.

Cornyn, the Republican incumbent, agrees.

SEN.

JOHN CORNYN: If Ken Paxton is at the top of# the ticket, we risk losing the Senate seat, losing## the majority in the House of Representatives, and# it will take the toll on everybody on the ballot.

LISA DESJARDINS: It is a five-way race in# Texas that blares out a signal for 2026.## It will be a rugged and rough road to November.

For the "PBS News Hour," I'm Lisa Desjardins.

AMNA NAWAZ: ## We return now to our top story of the# day with an update with Nick Schifrin.

So, Nick, the news this evening that# the U.S.

government is calling for mass## evacuations of Americans for more than# a dozen countries, what's the latest?

NICK SCHIFRIN: Yes, 14 countries.

And we're going to bring up this graphic# again.

This .. because not only is it the countries that# people have to leave, but also numbers and## whatnot of how to get some information,# Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel,## Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi# Arabia, Syria, UAE, and Yemen, 14 countries.

A former senior official who worked# on these issues tell me -- and this## person called multiple people who worked with# this person over the years -- unprecedented,## never been done before on this scale.# A U.S.

official tells me tonight,## safe to say this is more than a# million people across the region.

Now, this official also says that we shouldn't# read into too much the language that we just## saw there about safety risks, that this# is more about the momentum of the war,## what we're seeing kind of# crescendoing across the region,## the Iranian attacks spreading throughout# the region and the counterattacks as well.

Also, that U.S.

officials have given# this guidance to diplomatic families## and so they have to by law give it# to all American citizens, but, again,## what appears to be an unprecedented# request for all Americans to leave## across the country -- across the region, and# some of these airports are already closed.

AMNA NAWAZ: Nick Schifrin with the# very latest for us this evening.

Nick, thank you.

NICK SCHIFRIN: Thank you.

AMNA NAWAZ: Meanwhile, that is the# "News Hour" for .. On behalf of the entire "News Hour"# team, thank you for joining us.