Mordecai Lee on Comparing the 1968 and 2024 Election Cycles

Frederica Freyberg:
Latest national polling puts VP Kamala Harris, even with former president Donald Trump in Wisconsin at 47% each. President Joe Biden this week took to the airwaves to say it was time to pass the torch. Presumptive nominee Harris served hand in hand with his administration. All of this harkens back to the last time a U.S. president decided not to run for reelection. The year was 1968. The wartime president who dropped out was Lyndon B. Johnson. The ensuing Democratic National Convention in Chicago that year devolved into chaos on and off the floor. Anti-Vietnam War protesters outside Convention Hall were swarmed by a massive police presence, violence that turned to riots. Inside delegates for antiwar candidate Eugene McCarthy, including those from Wisconsin, wanted to stop the madness.

Chairman:
Wisconsin.

Donald Peterson:
Mr. Chairman, most delegates to this convention do not know that thousands of young people are being beaten in the streets of Chicago.

Frederica Freyberg:
In the end, LBJ’s vice president, Hubert Humphrey, won the nomination.

Chairman:
21 and one-half votes for Senator McCarthy.

TV announcer:
This is going to do it.

Chairman:
And 103 and three quarters.

Frederica Freyberg:
UW Milwaukee political scientist Mordecai Lee remembers it like yesterday and Mordecai, thanks a lot for being here.

Mordecai Lee:
You’re welcome. I remember watching it in Milwaukee and it was just happening 90 miles down the road.

Frederica Freyberg:
Crazy. So this year, 2024 is topsy turvy, of course. Add to that the assassination attempt against Trump and Biden dropping out but was 1968 a whole different level?

Mordecai Lee:
1968 was a different level in terms of those emotions that you correctly captured about the war in Vietnam. But I don’t think they’re different from the political dynamic that’s going on. A Vice President Humphrey could not break with LBJ, could not become an antiwar candidate, but he wanted to separate himself from having to carry on his shoulders all the baggage that LBJ’s war had. And I think the same thing is happening with Harris. She needs to carry on her shoulders the weight of Biden’s unpopularity and of his policies, yet at the same time, to be a different candidate, to have a fresh take and that’s hard to tiptoe through the tulips.

Frederica Freyberg:
From what you’ve seen so far and it’s very early days, how do you think she’s doing in that regard?

Mordecai Lee:
I think in terms of the atmosphere of the campaign, she’s doing very well. When she visited Milwaukee just two days later, there was that excitement in the air, that enthusiasm, the very large crowd compared to earlier crowds on the Democratic side. So I think she got a boost. She got wind in her sails, but she isn’t breaking with Biden. And it’s really hard to tell if President Biden was unpopular because of his policies or if he was unpopular, not because of his policies, that for some reason just didn’t have the traction that, maybe his age, maybe his lack of energy. But she’s carrying something, and I think it might weigh her down as the months go by.

Frederica Freyberg:
Do you feel as though the unpopularity of LBJ, however, was different, heightened because this was about the Vietnam War?

Mordecai Lee:
There’s no doubt that it was different because the emotions from Democrats against LBJ and therefore against Humphrey was coming from that direction. Now, the emotion against Biden is not coming from Democrats. It’s coming from Republicans. So I think the dynamic is different. But nonetheless, I think she’s going to feel a pressure to somehow not quite disavow Biden, but she’s got to separate herself from him and especially have a different vision for the next four years.

Frederica Freyberg:
So given what we talked about how the convention devolved in 1968, the convention itself, it doesn’t seem likely, does it, that that would happen at the Democratic Convention coming up in just a couple of weeks?

Mordecai Lee:
No, I think it will be totally different from 1968. I think this is going to be a very placid convention. It’s going to be, in a sense, the same image as the RNC was last week. It’ll be supporting one candidate. All the speeches will be supportive of that candidate, and they’ll be looking for unity and sort of momentum as they come out of the convention.

Frederica Freyberg:
We said at the top that you remember 1968 like yesterday. How indelible do you think 2024 will be for you?

Mordecai Lee:
I think very indelible. I think the last two weeks we’ve had two political tsunamis. First came the assassination attempt, and thank goodness, his survival. And then the wind that it put in his sails at the RNC. And so there was this sense of that he would be a unity candidate. And then he gave his acceptance speech and it wasn’t only a speech about unity, it was also a speech with his criticisms of Biden and the Democrats and so he lost a little bit of momentum. But I think the timing of when Biden decided to drop out really had to do with the RNC. I think Biden was resisting, resisting. But then when he saw the political impact of surviving the assassination attempt and the unity of the RNC, that’s when he decided he just had to drop out. And that was the second tsunami less than a week ago, unbelievably, where he dropped out and she picked up where he left off. And I’m guessing that these two tectonic events have sort of negated each other. That now we’re back at go and the campaigns will unfold from this point on.

Frederica Freyberg:
We leave it there. Mordecai Lee, thanks so much.

Mordecai Lee:
You’re welcome.