McCoshen & Ross on Expectations of the 2024 RNC in Milwaukee

Frederica Freyberg:
The Republican National Convention is next week in Milwaukee, but the hyper focus remains on Joe Biden. And for the president on the ropes, tough choices. How does the race shape up in the critical state of Wisconsin? We turn to our political panelists, Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross. And thanks for being here.

Scot Ross:
Great to be here.

Bill McCoshen:
Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:
So first to you Scot, in all of this, what do Wisconsin Democrats want Joe Biden to do?

Scot Ross:
Well, I think they want him to continue to talk about what he’s done for the people of Wisconsin and what the choice is between he and Donald Trump. I mean, you know, everything that I see: electeds, activists and donors are all riding with Biden still. You know, he had a tough week. But the fact is he has emerged from it. His speech on Thursday was — his hour-long press conference with the media, where he was being grilled, you know, showed him at the top of his game. And I think that that’s what Democrats want to see. They want to see that contrast: issues, abortion, healthcare, democracy. And, you know, again, pivoting back to Donald Trump, a guy who has 34 felony counts, who on Thursday would have been sentenced if the Supreme Court, which he controls, hadn’t named him immune from prosecution.

Frederica Freyberg:
He’s definitely on the ropes, though.

Bill McCoshen:
He’s definitely on the ropes. I don’t think we’ve ever seen anything like this in our lifetime. The latest a sitting president has gotten out of the race is March 31st, 1968. I was three years old, LBJ. Are we going to see that in the next ten days? I’m not sure. But if you look at how destabilizing the debate performance for Biden was, we had a situation where he was literally on the mat and came to Madison last week, didn’t do that great, didn’t do very well with George Stephanopoulos, made some mistakes there. Does a full, hour-long press conference last night, but he sends the Congressional Democrats a letter on Monday saying, “Hey, I’m your candidate. I’m in the race. I’m not getting out.” Three days later, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is asked about this, and she says, “Well, he just needs to make a decision.” Either she didn’t read the letter or she didn’t get it, right. So Democrats are still saying he needs to make a decision. In his mind, he’s made that decision. This is all very destabilizing. So it’s good for Republicans.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, I — this is not the greatest thing for Democrats. That’s for sure. But what I will say is it shows the contrast between the two parties. You know, the Republican Party is all in for a guy with 34 felonies. You know, a guy who threatens democracy. A guy who’s — who met with Viktor Orban this week, you know, Putin’s puppet. A guy who’s going to turn our country and our foreign policy over to Putin versus a guy like Joe Biden.

Frederica Freyberg:
Let me ask you how untenable it is for someone like U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin running for re-election?

Scot Ross:
I don’t — I mean, she said she stands with Biden. You know, that was, the was basically the statement, you know, and that’s the way she’s always been. You know, Senator Baldwin has never been somebody out there throwing bombs one way or the other. She goes out. She does the work for Wisconsinites, and she does the most important thing, if we’re talking about elections, which is win elections by delivering solidly, by raising money and by getting out all over the state. And you contrast that with her opponent, I don’t think, you know, I don’t think it matters.

Bill McCoshen:
Seventeen congressional Democrats have called for Biden to step aside, not to resign, but to step aside from the race. There were reports yesterday before the press conference that as many as 24 to 30 more were going to ask for the same thing, for him to step aside. Only one has done that since. So maybe he stemmed the tide. My sense is Tammy Baldwin can run ahead of Joe Biden, but the question is, if he’s the nominee and he’s a drag on the ticket, how much can he drag her down?

Frederica Freyberg:
So Donald Trump wants Biden to stay in?

Bill McCoshen:
Absolutely.

Frederica Freyberg:
Who would he least like to run against?

Bill McCoshen:
You know, for me, I think a young female would be a challenge for him for sure. But there isn’t one out there that’s got universal name ID, although that can be bought. But the one thing I’ll correct Scot on, major donors to Democrats for a super PAC, $90 million, they’ve told the White House they’re not going to release that money unless Biden is removed from the ticket.

Frederica Freyberg:
At the top of this program, we described it as Democrats holding their breath. Is that accurate?

Scot Ross:
I think that Democrats are trying to play this one out and see how it goes. Now, I’ll go back to what Bill said about, like, who would be the best opponent, you know, who would be the worst opponent for Trump? I’d say Kamala Harris. You know, if you look at the demographics of what — of who’s winning what, Joe Biden is beating Trump in all of the age demographics except for Gen X, 40- to 55-year-old voters. He’s down by 15 points with that. Kamala Harris would be our first Gen X president, so he does definitely not want Vice President Harris, who has a lot of name ID, who would have the operation and who can stand on Biden’s record, specifically in Wisconsin creating 169,000 jobs, getting 27,000 people student loan relief as opposed to the Trump record 89,000 jobs lost.

Frederica Freyberg:
You know, if we stay with the Biden-Trump match up though, what kind of a choice is this for voters? Would they be voting for the platform, the party, not the person?

Bill McCoshen:
It’s tricky. Pew Research came out with a poll this week. 63% of voters don’t want either of these choices. Yet here we are. 85% in that same poll and in the Washington Post poll this week, said Joe Biden is too old. So I think a lot of Americans would like a do-over but here we are. And so that’s how it’s going to shake out.

Scot Ross:
I do some traveling and some friends of mine from abroad were asking me, tell me about the election, earlier this year. And I said, “Well, about $5 billion is going to be spent to determine whether or not an 81-year-old or a 78-year-old is the future of the United States.” I mean, that’s where we’re at.

Frederica Freyberg:
So, down to the ground in Wisconsin, what is the most resonant issue, do you think, for voters?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, the Institute for Reforming Government released a poll this week of likely voters in Wisconsin. They said it’s inflation. 47% had listed inflation as their number one issue. I think that’s right. I think immigration is a big issue here as well. And I think the border is a big issue. I think those are the main three. Scot will add abortion, I’m sure, and that is a big issue specifically for Democrats, less so for Republicans and independents.

Scot Ross:
I mean, I guess if those are the issues that IRG says, then it’s bad news because border crossings are down, inflation is down, jobs are up. I mean, you know, it couldn’t be better. The atmosphere couldn’t be better, issue-wise for Democrats. Just a matter of not, you know, hopefully they’ll continue to do what they do, which is out-raise the Republicans, out-organize the Republicans and out-get out the vote Republicans. Again, in this atmosphere in which we’ve got a real serious threat to democracy, if this goes south for Dems.

Frederica Freyberg:
So next week, you both will be at the Republican National Convention, speaking every day with senior political reporter Zac Schultz to offer your color and insight. At the RNC, Bill, what are you most looking forward to seeing?

Bill McCoshen:
I’m excited to hear who Donald Trump chooses as his running mate. The list, I think, is a little longer than has been released. J.D. Vance is on the list. Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, my dark horse is still Glenn Youngkin. I think he’s the one that adds the most. You want to have somebody that can put more states in play. There’s no question that Youngkin can do that. I think my second choice in that list would be Marco Rubio, because I think he helps in both Nevada and in Arizona.

Frederica Freyberg:
So does the VP matter to a Trump presidency?

Bill McCoshen:
Generally not but if have someone like Glenn Youngkin who can deliver the Virginia electoral votes, then the blue wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, you know, Joe Biden’s still got to sweep that to win.

Frederica Freyberg:
What are you going to be doing at the Republican convention?

Scot Ross:
I don’t know it’s so much what I’m going to see there as opposed to what I’m not going to see there. The former Republican president of the United States, George Bush, the former vice president of the United States, Republican Dick Cheney, the former vice president for Donald Trump, Mike Pence. And are we going to see Melania Trump there? We haven’t seen her on the trail so far. And maybe finally, you know, we’ll get Donald Trump. It’s been 154 days since he did a press conference. Maybe he’ll do one next week.

Frederica Freyberg:
Democrats are going to be seen and heard there, I understand.

Scot Ross:
Yeah, absolutely. As much as they pushed the protest lines back, Democrats will find a way to get their message out. And, you know, hopefully they’ll say the right things at the right time to the right people.

Frederica Freyberg:
We look forward to having you on our air next week. Thank you very much.

Bill McCoshen:
As do we.

Scot Ross:
It’s going to be great.

Frederica Freyberg:
Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross. Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
Starting Monday, look for “Here & Now” 2024 election coverage from the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. At 2 p.m. live each day, senior political reporter Zac Schultz with panelists McCoshen and Ross. Then each night at 8:30 p.m., a Wisconsin update. And on Friday, full coverage starting at 7 p.m. on “Here & Now.”