Laura Dresser on Wages, Unions in Wisconsin Economy

Zac Schultz:
Monday was Labor Day, and while most families used the holiday as a vacation, it’s a good time to check in on the state of the average worker. And for that, we turn to Laura Dresser, associate director of UW Madison’s High Road Strategy Center and the author of the State of Working Wisconsin Report. Thanks for being here.

Laura Dresser:
I’m so glad to be here. Thank you.

Zac Schultz:
So your most recent report says the median wage has reached an all-time high of $25 an hour. But obviously, federal policies are creating some chaos, as you say, and the most recent jobs report shows that it’s not looking good.

Laura Dresser:
Yeah, that’s right. It’s a very — there was, there’s been a very strong recovery from the pandemic shutdowns five years ago. But we were really beginning to see, especially in those monthly job numbers, troubling signs about the economy, because I think of the federal uncertainty, tariffs and immigration policies.

Zac Schultz:
So the numbers show that June was revised down to nothing and slight, very low anemic job reports since then, right?

Laura Dresser:
Yeah. The 2025 job growth month over month is, and revised down, like you said to a negative in June, a weak, a weak July. Those numbers are running less than half the 2024 jobs production numbers. So this is substantial cooling. A really troubling sign in the labor market, both at the national level and most of that showing up in Wisconsin, too.

Zac Schultz:
So for a few months this year, it felt like we couldn’t figure out what tariffs were actually in place or just being threatened. They were always on pause or hold. Can we relate some of the slowdowns to tariffs? Are those already being felt?

Laura Dresser:
I mean, there’s two aspects to what, what’s going on with tariffs right now. There’s a lot of uncertainty. Like you said, it’s hard to tell. And I think it’s hard for businesses, domestic businesses and international businesses, to plan when the regime is not clear. When what is our tariff policy going to be still emerging? Chaotic giant leaps. So partly the uncertainty cools off business investment decisions as it puts people back on their heels and at producer levels. And then also when the tariffs land and they’re beginning to land, they increase prices. They do. They’re a tax on imported goods and that means imported and the domestic goods in those markets, prices will go up. And so I think there’s real concerns, I think, very — some signs that tariffs are beginning to hit but more like concern and the uncertainty really dominating the news right now.

Zac Schultz:
So the Pew Research Center recently estimated the number of immigrants in the workforce went down by 1.2 million nationally in just the first six months of the year. What impact does that have on the workforce? We saw unemployment tick up as well.

Laura Dresser:
Yeah, I think what we see a cooling labor market, but we also know that in, especially in, specific industries and some very important industries in Wisconsin, agriculture, hotels, food service, immigrants are a big — construction — immigrants are a big share of the workforce. And the fact that they are often staying home or nervous or not coming to the country. Again, this tightens the ability of businesses to grow and is another kind of wet blanket on the economy.

Zac Schultz:
We’ve only got a few seconds left, but historically, fewer workers typically means rising wages, competition. Will that happen this time?

Laura Dresser:
It, it may. I mean there’s a lot to see what, what washes out. We’ve got that kind of impact although there’s also — so yeah, we’ll just have to wait and see. There’s a lot going on: price changes because of tariffs, labor impact demand because of the immigration systems. And what’s going on in the broader economy will probably dominate.

Zac Schultz:
And finally, just — sorry, last few seconds. Union membership in Wisconsin is dropping. Act 10, the Wisconsin Supreme Court is going to take a look at it. Will we see a change if they overturn Act 10?

Laura Dresser:
Changes will be slow. I think — it — unemployment. I’m sorry. Unionization rates fell in half from 2011 to 2024 in the state of Wisconsin. They won’t double in a day or two. To get back to where we were, or even to get back to the national average, will take years. But Act 10 and what we call — what is so-called “right to work,” you know, the policy around private sector unionization would have to go to get really large gains in the state as well.

Zac Schultz:
All right. Laura Dresser, thank you so much for your time.

Laura Dresser:
Thanks for having me.