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The following program is a PBS Wisconsin original production. You’re watching “Here & Now” 2024 election coverage.

Frederica Freyberg:
The campaigns are counting down the hours for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as the neck and neck candidates flock to swing states in the remaining days before the election.
I’m Frederica Freyberg. Tonight on “Here & Now,” a rundown of the candidates’ six visits in the last three days, the last Marquette Law School poll before the election, the roller coaster of voter enthusiasm and a special look at the many presidential campaign stops around Wisconsin. It’s “Here & Now” for November 1.

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Funding for “Here & Now” is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:
With the election in four days, Wisconsin is the place to be tonight. Both presidential candidates are holding rallies in and around Milwaukee. Donald Trump is scheduled to speak within the hour at the Fiserv Forum downtown. That’s where “Here & Now” reporter Nathan Denzin is and hi Nathan.

Nathan Denzin:
Hi, Fred.

Frederica Freyberg:
So what time is Donald Trump scheduled to take the stage? And who have you been hearing from in that crowd until he does?

Nathan Denzin:
Yeah. So Trump is expected to speak here at about 8:00. But we know with a lot of Trump rallies he can show up late. So probably about 8:30 is realistic. In the meantime, people here have heard from a lot of former and current Wisconsin representatives, former Governors Tommy Thompson and Scott Walker were both here, as were Representatives Bryan Steil, Scott Fitzgerald, Senator Ron Johnson and Senate candidate Eric Hovde. So very Wisconsin specific, not a lot of outside people.

Frederica Freyberg:
What’s the energy like there inside?

Nathan Denzin:
It’s very high. It is very high energy in here. When we came here at about 7 a.m. this morning, there was a line that was already forming and it’s pretty full in here. The second section in here was curtained off initially, but they’ve been opening up that more and more as we’ve gotten closer to the Trump speaking. There is not an empty seat in here, if that seat is available.

Frederica Freyberg:
Why would Donald Trump visit a Democratic stronghold like Milwaukee once again?

Nathan Denzin:
Yeah, so it harkens back to the advice that former Governor Tommy Thompson had given to Republicans in the state, and that is to really hit these areas of Madison and Milwaukee hard. If you look at it, the percentages, it might say that they’re very, very democratic and that’s true. But there’s still a lot of Republican votes in these cities, and they don’t get to see their presidential candidate very often. So Republicans are trying to hit these areas to drive out those voters because, as we know, in a state like Wisconsin, every vote counts.

Frederica Freyberg:
This isn’t the first trip to Wisconsin this week, as we have mentioned. Where else has Trump rallied?

Nathan Denzin:
Yeah. So Trump was also in Green Bay on Wednesday, where he rallied with former legendary Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre. And he really urged his supporters to get out the vote. Here’s what he had to say.

Donald Trump:
With your vote this November, we are going to fire Kamala and we are going to save America. We will cut your taxes, end inflation, slash your prices, raise your wages and bring thousands of factories back to America. And in fact, we’re going to bring a lot of them right back to Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:
So we saw him there in his reflective vest as a prop to highlight a comment that Joe Biden had made earlier this week. But it does sure seem, Nathan, like these campaigns are leaving it all on the field in the final days. Can you sense that from the crowd as well?

Nathan Denzin:
Yeah, absolutely. They’re pulling out all the stops here tonight. The music is loud, as you can probably hear behind me. They’ve had the T-shirt cannon out. They really care about this state.

Frederica Freyberg:
In his many visits to Wisconsin, who is Trump hoping to turn out?

Nathan Denzin:
Well, really, he’s hoping to turn out his base here. He’s probably not changing many minds, but at his rally in Green Bay, he was in the BOW counties of Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago, which is a really strong Republican stronghold. And here the WOW counties of Washington, Ozaukee and Waukesha are very close. And those have been trending a little bit blue in recent years but it still can be counted on, as you know, a lot of Republican votes that could be coming to Trump. So he’s trying to drive out his base in these last, last hours of the election here in Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Nathan Denzin, we really appreciate your reporting from the Fiserv Forum there in Milwaukee with that loud music, the T-shirt cannons and all the rest. Thanks very much for your reporting.

Nathan Denzin:
Thanks, Fred.

Frederica Freyberg:
The U.S. Department of Justice will have election monitors in four counties on Election Day, including Milwaukee and Wausau.
Meanwhile, Kamala Harris also made her second trip to Wisconsin this week with three stops across the state today. In Little Chute, Janesville and later tonight in West Allis, where she’s holding a rally just miles from the Trump event. Midweek, Harris fired up young voters in Madison. Reporter Steven Potter was there.

Kamala Harris:
All right, Madison, are we ready to do this?

Steven Potter:
Even as they waited in line to hear from Kamala Harris at the Get Out the Vote rally, the mostly young crowd had their minds made up.

Annemarie Goncalves:
One of the biggest issues for me is her plan for middle class families and helping make housing more affordable, especially for people in my generation Gen Z.

Steven Potter:
Students like UW-Madison senior Annemarie Goncalves said they understand what’s at stake in this election.

Annemarie Goncalves:
We’re the ones who these decisions are going to affect, and we’re also going to have to deal with the ramifications and repercussions of the decisions that are made by our political candidates at the moment. So it’s super important that we elect officials that we believe are going to be making the right choices for us.

Steven Potter:
Many said that they’ve already cast their ballot for Harris. Rashawn Overton drove up from Illinois.

Rashawn Overton:
I think people like me in this country, we often feel like we don’t have the opportunity to be successful. So to hear Harris talk about building an opportunity economy and an economy in which we all get a chance just to like, do something and thrive and find fulfillment within our life sounds amazing to me.

Steven Potter:
But older generations turned out to the event, too.

Kathy Roberg:
Health care is very important. The economy of this country is really important. Coming up with a plan for immigration is important. And she’s got all those things in a policy right now.

Steven Potter:
Inside the arena, the energy was stoked by the star power and a capacity crowd.

Tammy Baldwin:
Early voting is happening right now, so make your plan. Bring your friends and get out there and vote.

Steven Potter:
The thousands of college students left with a homework assignment.

Mandela Barnes:
And if you are one of those people who has already cast a ballot, you’ve just signed yourself up to bring ten people to the polls between now and Election Day.

Tony Evers:
Call and text ten people in your life. That’s all you have to do.

Steven Potter:
Kamala Harris made a direct appeal to young voters on the issues of climate change, gun violence and reproductive rights.

Kamala Harris:
You all are rightly impatient for change. These issues are not theoretical. This is not political for you. This is your lived experience. And I see you. And let us remember that your vote is your voice, and your voice is your power.

Steven Potter:
Election Day will be the true test if Harris brought the energy and if Wisconsin voters, as they say, understood the assignment. Reporting from Madison for “Here & Now,” I’m Steven Potter.

Frederica Freyberg:
As so often befalls Wisconsin, this election is a squeaker virtually tied at the top of the ticket heading into November 5th. We turn to Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School poll out this week with his last poll before Election Day and thanks for being here.

Charles Franklin:
Glad to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:
So let’s take a look right away at your results. A Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is supported by 50% of likely voters and a Republican former President Donald Trump is supported by 49% in the head-to-head. How has this tightened since your last poll?

Charles Franklin:
It’s tightened a little bit from a four-point Harris lead in late September to this one-point lead, but over the course of the year, we’ve done seven polls. Not one of them has been outside the margin of error. This one is no exception to that.

Frederica Freyberg:
Are there any trends to point to that suggest a winner here?

Charles Franklin:
Yeah, not really because they’re pushing in different directions. On issues, Trump has a little bit of an advantage. 46% say he’s better on the issue that’s most important to them. 43% say the same of Harris. But on personal characteristics, Harris is seen as, by a considerable margin, having the right temperament to be president, being honest and being intelligent. Trump has an advantage on having a record of past accomplishments So, on the balance, the personality side is leaning strongly to Harris. But on the issue side, it leans to Trump. And then the last thing is that Joe Biden remains unpopular, just 42 or 43% job approval all this past year. And people think their financial situation is worse off than it was under Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:
In this latest poll, you surveyed 5% more Republicans than Democrats. Does that change the result or get weighted somehow?

Charles Franklin:
No. We’ve seen over the course of the year, we’ve seen Republican advantages of 3 to 5%, and it’s been about 4% the last couple of polls. This final poll was a 4% in late September. It’s a 5% now. This may reflect a genuine shift in partisanship because we’ve seen it all year. It was a little bit tighter a year ago in November of 2023, but throughout this year, we’ve seen this little bit larger than in the past Republican advantage. So we’ll find out on Election Day if that squares with the vote. But it’s not an aberration of a single poll. It’s been a consistent pattern throughout the year.

Frederica Freyberg:
There’s so many things to talk about here, but one of them is the 5% undecided. I can’t believe there’s anybody undecided.

Charles Franklin:
You’d think that especially this late in the game. But when you look at who is undecided, it actually makes sense. Independents, pure independents who don’t feel closer to either party, about 20% undecided. People who dislike both candidates, 35 to 40% undecided and Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump, that’s 13% of Republicans, about 40% undecided. The crossover of Republicans voting for Harris is about 7%. So that’s a little bit more than half of the Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:
There’s another number here. Third party candidates combined take 9% in your poll. Now it’s not expected that that would stand during actual voting but could that tip this race?

Charles Franklin:
Well it certainly could and it’s the biggest surprise to me in the poll. We’ve been seeing third party voting going down all year. It was 6% at the end of September. Now it’s 9%. I think, in part, it still reflects some reluctance on the part of voters who are not thrilled with either choice. But I’d be surprised if it’s that high. We were at 5.5% in 2016, and just 1.5% third party vote in 2020. So I’ve been expecting that to be below 5.5 but this last poll showed a little uptick for Kennedy and a tiny uptick for the other third-party candidates.

Frederica Freyberg:
Let’s get to the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin. Your results show that Tammy Baldwin is at 51% to 49% for Eric Hovde. Now, this is inside the margin of error. This is quite a tightening since your last poll.

Charles Franklin:
It is. We were at Baldwin ahead by 6 or 7 in the last poll. So down to two now. Other polling has shown it a close race and the campaigns have said they think their polling shows it close. So I think the 2% is probably reasonable given what’s happened in other people’s polls. And there has been some shifts in the perception of Hovde in particular.

Frederica Freyberg:
So what are her headwinds in this race?

Charles Franklin:
Well, what we’ve seen is we’ve asked people which candidate would work harder to solve national problems. Baldwin had been leading in this, but this time Hovde is one point ahead of her on that question. So it suggests some messaging has sunk in. Also, who would better represent the interests of Wisconsin? Baldwin had had a nine-point lead earlier on that. It’s down to about a four-point lead now. I think in some sense this is just the tightening of the race, but it also does reflect some of the messages of each campaign beginning to work through.

Frederica Freyberg:
Still people really want to vote. And the measure of enthusiasm, it’s at 66%, but it’s varied by party. For Democrats, 75% are very enthusiastic, and that is up 4% from your last poll. How historically high is that or is it?

Charles Franklin:
It’s quite high. It’s not historically high levels, but it is quite high. Earlier in the year, Republicans were 10 to 15 points more enthusiastic than Democrats then Biden dropped out and Democrats caught up and then surpassed Republicans. Republican enthusiasm is still pretty high. It’s just that Democrats have pushed a little bit past them.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Republican enthusiasm sits at 66%. One thing I really want to get to is to ask you on election night, as the returns come in, what in Wisconsin will you be watching for?

Charles Franklin:
It’s always the margin of the vote coming in in Milwaukee and in Dane County. That’s where Democrats run up their huge margins in those two counties. The WOW Counties around Milwaukee, do those show a further decline in Republican strength? We expect the Republican to win, but maybe by less. And then I think the sleeper is what happens in the north and west of the state. Trump gained a lot of votes from ’12 to ’16, but in ’20, he basically broke even with where he had been in 2016. But there’s potential for a surge in Trump votes there. If that happens, that’s good news for him. If it fails to happen, then we’re looking at the southeast to see if these trends that we’ve seen in the Milwaukee suburbs and in Milwaukee and Dane County hold up.

Frederica Freyberg:
Perfect. Thank you.

Charles Franklin:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
Charles Franklin.
In most presidential elections, pundits talk about the October surprise, the last-minute news story that can change the trajectory of an election. But this year, the biggest shift took place in July, when President Joe Biden announced he was stepping aside, allowing for Kamala Harris to become the Democratic nominee. One significant way this changed things on the ground is in voter enthusiasm. And as we just discussed, the latest Marquette poll shows enthusiasm is higher among Democrats than Republicans. “Here & Now” senior political reporter Zac Schultz shows us how this has changed the race in Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz:
On a beautiful fall day, the office of the Ozaukee Democrats is bustling.

Deb Dassow:
I’ve never seen this many people wanting to volunteer ever.

Zac Schultz:
Deb Dassow is chair of the county party and is getting ready for a visit from Gwen Walz, wife of vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz.

Gwen Walz:
Well, good afternoon, Ozaukee Democrats.

Zac Schultz:
Ozaukee County is the “O” in the famed “WOW” counties. The three conservative hotbeds that surround Milwaukee County and make up the base of the traditional Republican Party of Wisconsin.

Deb Dassow:
I picked up close to 400 signs last week. We’ve got ten left.

Zac Schultz:
By the end of the day, another thousand Harris signs have been dropped off, waiting to be assembled and put up in yards. A visual reminder of the growing Democratic strength in suburban Wisconsin.

Deb Dassow:
Only 998 to go.

Zac Schultz:
It wasn’t too long ago that a visit from someone like Walz and supporters buying yard signs in Ozaukee County was unthinkable. Four months ago, this was unthinkable.

Deb Dassow:
We had a debate party here that night and when President Biden walked out, it was like, “Oh boy.”

Zac Schultz:
At the end of June, Joe Biden debated Donald Trump.

Deb Dassow:
The mood here was very solemn, and we actually had people say, “I’m going to vote for him but I’m not going to do doors. You know, I’m not going to volunteer.”

Zac Schultz:
A few weeks later, the Republican National Convention came to Milwaukee and polling showed Trump with a lead in Wisconsin and Republicans with a huge advantage in voter enthusiasm.

Brian Schimming:
The enthusiasm gap for Donald Trump versus Joe Biden is 22 points, 22 points.

Zac Schultz:
By the end of the week, Brian Schimming, the chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, was warning delegates not to be overconfident about a Trump win.

Brian Schimming:
It’s not just rhetoric. It affects the way we run our parties, the way we volunteer, the way we run door-to-door programs. It affects everything. So we got to go for the win.

Zac Schultz:
That Sunday, Joe Biden suspended his campaign and dropped out of the race.

Joe Biden:
So I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation.

Zac Schultz:
Kamala Harris quickly gathered enough support to become the nominee, and Democratic candidates across the state felt the mood change at the doors overnight.

Jamie Wall:
I did feel like I was kind of running a roving therapy session for relieved Democrats at the doors occasionally because everyone who was a partisan wanted to talk to you about that and how they felt about it.

Christy Welch:
There’s definitely been a shift in enthusiasm.

Zac Schultz:
Christy Welch is running for Assembly and also serves as chair of the Brown County Democrats. She says voter enthusiasm is more than just being excited to vote.

Christy Welch:
With Kamala at the top of the ticket, we definitely saw a major increase in people, you know, filling out our volunteer form on our website, calling into the office, stopping by.

Zac Schultz:
By the time Harris accepted the nomination at the Democratic National Convention, she had taken the lead in the polls and closed the enthusiasm gap.

Mandela Barnes:
Yeah, so there’s certainly been a shift in enthusiasm. I actually just ran into some folks that I saw about two months ago, and our faces looked a little bit different. And look, with all due respect to the president, there’s certainly just a shift in energy.

Zac Schultz:
By September, the debate tables were turned.

Kamala Harris:
In terms of workers’ rights

Zac Schultz:
Democrats at a Green Bay watch party hooted and cheered as Harris delivered a strong performance.

Donad Trump:
We need two things.

Zac Schultz:
While Republicans across town were upset that some of Trump’s statements were being fact checked by moderators.

Debate moderator:
Is that what you believe he’s trying to do here?

Zac Schultz:
The next week, Harris was in Madison.

Kamala Harris:
And it’s great to be back in Madison.

Zac Schultz:
Encouraging her supporters to volunteer, trying to turn enthusiasm into action.

Kamala Harris:
The election is basically here. It’s basically here. And we have work to do to energize, to organize and to mobilize and to remind everyone your vote is your voice.

Zac Schultz:
Republicans are asking the same thing of their supporters.

Donald Trump:
Remember, early mail-in voting is underway. So vote, vote, vote. You got to get going.

Zac Schultz:
Brian Schimming says Republicans haven’t lost on enthusiasm.

Brian Schimming:
It’s great statewide for us.

Zac Schultz:
It’s just no longer a blowout.

Brian Schimming:
It’s very, very high out there. It has not ebbed at all since the convention. It’s really, really good. The Democrats have to make up for lost time. So, so what appears to be a jump in the enthusiasm gap on their end is more getting rid of Joe Biden.

Zac Schultz:
On Election Day, an enthusiastic vote counts just the same as a reluctant vote. But the campaigns hope an enthusiastic voter will bring nonvoters to the polls.

J.D. Vance:
I want you to try to be a force multiplier over these next 16 days because I don’t just want you to take yourself to the polls, I want every single person in this room to get nine of their friends and family to the polls with them.

Tim Walz:
And all of this energy and all of these rallies and all of the door knocks and all of the phone calls and all of the money have to translate into something so wonderful and so simple, that little “I Voted” sticker on more Wisconsin folks than ever before.

Zac Schultz:
Reporting from Madison, I’m Zac Schultz for “Here & Now.”

Frederica Freyberg:
The saying is a picture is worth a thousand words. Both candidates have been campaigning across Wisconsin seemingly nonstop since the party conventions. Reporter Murv Seymour has been on the campaign trail for much of it, with his still camera capturing snapshots and sounds in the race to win Wisconsin.

Kamala Harris:
Good evening, Wisconsin.

Donald Trump:
We’re going to defeat Kamala Harris.

Kamala Harris:
And it’s great to be back in Madison.

Derrick Van Orden:
Ladies and gentlemen, the one man that’s going to save this country. President Donald J. Trump.

Lee Greenwood (singing):
Glad to be an American where at least I know I’m free and I won’t forget the men who died who gave that right to me.

Donald Trump:
Hello, Wisconsin. It’s great to be back in this beautiful state with thousands of hard working, great American patriots. We appreciate it. Outside, we have thousands and thousands of people. Would anybody love to give up their seat?

Ben Wikler:
Are you ready to organize? Are you ready to work? Are you ready to fight? And are you ready to win?

Mark Pocan:
Are we going to make Kamala Harris and Tim Walz our next president and vice president?

Beyonce (singing):
Freedom, freedom. I can’t move. Freedom, cut me loose. Freedom, freedom. Where are you? Cause I need freedom, too.

Kamala Harris:
When I was five years old, we lived in Wisconsin. Now, every time I land, Governor Evers will meet me and he’ll say, “Welcome home.”

Tommy Thompson:
The Republican Party is back. Donald Trump’s going to win, and we’re taking our country back, and we’re going to make it great again. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, once again.

Crowd:
We’re not going back. We’re not going back. We’re not going back.

Kamala Harris:
We’re not going back. And the reason Wisconsin is because we know this election is about two very different visions for our country.

Donald Trump:
Our country is being destroyed. This is the worst president and the worst vice president in history. You got to get out and vote.

Kamala Harris:
Your vote is your voice, and your voice is your power. And never let anyone take your power from you.

Donald Trump:
If we win and when we win, we’re going to prosecute people that cheat on this election. The easiest way and the best way is on November 5th, you got to vote for Trump because we’re not going to let it happen.

Kamala Harris:
Donald Trump is an unserious man, but the consequences of him being president again are brutally serious.

Donald Trump:
Small towns in America are terrified of migrants coming in, and even when they haven’t yet arrived, they’re terrified. These people that are coming across the border illegally by the millions are taking the jobs of the Black population of America and the Hispanic population of America.

Kamala Harris:
Someone who suggests we should terminate the Constitution of the United States should never again stand behind the seal of the president of the United States.

Donald Trump:
If I win, we will have peace in the world again. If she gets four more years, the world goes up in smoke.

Kamala Harris:
So, Madison, today I ask you, are you ready to make your voices heard?

Donald Trump:
And we will make America great again. Thank you very much, Wisconsin. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
For more on this and other issues facing Wisconsin, visit our website at PBSWisconsin.org and then click on the news tab. To see all of our election coverage, visit WisconsinVote.org. And on election night, we will have live coverage as the polls close and into the night alongside PBS News Election 2024 special coverage. That’s our program for tonight. I’m Frederica Freyberg. Have a good weekend.

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Funding for “Here & Now” is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.