Here & Now

Zac Schultz on Wisconsin's 2023 Spring Election Results

Frederica Freyberg:

The results of this election upset the 15-year conservative balance of power on the court. Zac Schultz joins us from outside the Supreme Court chambers now at the state Capitol. Hi, Zac.

Zac Schultz:

Hello, Fred.

Frederica Freyberg:

So this race, as you’ve said, set a lot of records. What explains the huge win for Protasiewicz?

Zac Schultz:

Well, I think you have to look at a number of issues, but campaigns come down to the quality of the campaign. Protasiewicz got out early, raised a ton of money and spent a lot of money and you have to look at the quality of the candidates. Dan Kelly has run and lost before. There were a lot of negatives associated with him and then you have to look at the salient issues, and clearly abortion was one of the most important issues that people were connecting to this campaign and Protasiewicz ran on that issue. And I think all three of those merged together for the margin of victory that we saw on Tuesday.

Frederica Freyberg:

Where did she make gains and Kelly take losses that were different from other elections?

Zac Schultz:

Well, certainly you first have to look to the WOW counties, the Waukesha, Washington and Ozaukee counties, those suburban counties outside of Milwaukee. For decades, those have been Republican strongholds, where giving Scott Walker overwhelming majorities kind of countering out the power of Dane and Milwaukee for the liberal strongholds and kind of leaving most elections up to the rest of the state to decide. We’ve seen the erosion of Republican power at the top of the ballot since Donald Trump came into office, as those places are packed with suburban, educated women and families and as issues like abortion have become more and more important, especially with the Dobbs ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, Democrats have been campaigning on that and we’re seeing continually slippage of what were once very strong Republican strongholds now becoming up for grabs or at least not so much of a blow-out for Republicans. But if you look past that and you get outside of the southeast Wisconsin, you can look to the Fox Valley. Protasiewicz did really well in Brown, Outagamie and Winnebago counties, the so-called BOW counties that are in that next class of counties, and then she even did well in southwestern Wisconsin. When Democrats do well there, they win statewide. That’s what you’ve seen with prior liberal wins for the Supreme Court and when Tammy Baldwin has had big victories in her Senate races. She’s done well in those parts of the state as well.

Frederica Freyberg:

With the big issues, as you’ve said, being abortion and redistricting, how soon are such cases expect to find their way to the Supreme Court?

Zac Schultz:

Well, for abortion, that issue is already in the courts. It’s at a lower court. We’ve seen the Evers administration and Josh Kaul, the attorney general, file lawsuits regarding that for a while and they’ve been kind of slow playing that. They didn’t want that issue to get up to the Supreme Court too fast under the current conservative makeup because then they wouldn’t rule in the way they hoped they would. And so now maybe that lawsuit picks up a little steam, perhaps even gets reached down and picked right up to the Supreme Court once the new majority is in there in August. Protasiewicz doesn’t take the seat on the bench behind me until then. So you’ll see those start to percolate throughout the summer and definitely into the fall. As for redistricting, we’ve already heard reports of some of the liberal law firms starting to put their case together for their reasons why they believe that it’s an unconstitutional gerrymander. We saw the blueprint for one possible overturning redistricting in the liberal dissent to the redistricting case last year in which at the time three liberals on the court said that they believe that there could be a trial held in response to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Wisconsin’s maps. So expect those to be happening going forward. Definitely through this fall and into winter. For redistricting, obviously there’s an election in 2024. Those maps need to be in place by the spring if they are going to be done so there’s not a ton of time for these big, big issues to come before the court and then get settled.

Frederica Freyberg:

In terms of the balance of the court, there are other Supreme Court elections in the offing as you know, namely in 2025, when the term of liberal Justice Ann Walsh Bradley is up.

Ann Walsh Bradley:

Absolutely going to run again. I do have, by the way, I do have an idea, and it is, yes, after tonight’s performance and seeing the energy in this room, I’m not only going to run, I’m going to win.

Frederica Freyberg:

So liberals feel like they are on a new roll now. Is that fair?

Zac Schultz:

Oh, absolutely. You look at the past few elections for the Supreme Court, aside from 2019, where that was expected to be a liberal win and Justice Hagedorn won by just a few thousand votes. Liberals have been winning by large margins, 10-point margins for the last few races outside of that particular one and we have to point out that no person ever elected to the Supreme Court has gone and lost a re-election. The only time that a sitting member has been defeated in a re-election is when they were appointed. That happened to Justice Kelly and that happened to Lewis Butler back in 2009. So the history of elected officials is quite strong when it comes to looking forward to 2025, which is when Ann Walsh Bradley would be on the ballot again.

Frederica Freyberg:

A process question. At this point, does Ann Walsh Bradley de facto become chief justice?

Zac Schultz:

No, she does not. According to the constitutional amendment that was passed by Republicans and approved by voters a couple of years ago, the Supreme Court gets to elect their own chief justice. Right now that is conservative Annette Ziegler and she was just re-elected recently. However, the Supreme Court gets to make their own rules so when Janet Protasiewicz becomes Justice Protasiewicz this summer, they will have a majority and they could decide they want to take a vote on who the chief justice is at that time and you would expect if that happens, that it would be Ann Walsh Bradley who would become the chief and that will be up to the court at that time, because they get to set their own rules and quite honestly, there’s no one else to appeal to. They are the Supreme Court.

Frederica Freyberg:

Indeed. So having reported on this as well, Zac, you know that another big election Tuesday was for the State Senate 8th District with a supermajority on the line. In a super close race, Republican Dan Knodl topped Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin 50.9% to 49.1%. Now, the supermajority allows the Senate to impeach public officials. Dan Knodl spoke to that opportunity ahead of the election.

Dan Knodl:

That really could involve any elected official, particularly elected officials, our government officials as well, appointed. So I would think it’s — I view it initially as all encompassing.

Frederica Freyberg:

So Dan Knodl seems all in on impeaching people, but how serious is the Republican majority about those new powers?

Zac Schultz:

Well, they have yet to be tested. This has not been a reality in the modern era of Wisconsin politics. Dan Knodl was campaigning at that time. He wanted that issue to be salient for the voters in his area as why he should be elected. The question is whether that would actually happen. That is a big process. It’s not something to be taken lightly. Even though Republicans have 22 members, that is a huge majority and not every one of those members would seem to be on board at this time. We’ve heard from Senate Majority Leader LeMahieu saying they are not going to just willy-nilly impeaching people and the whole process right now is uncertain legally. Some of those terms aren’t defined, which would seem to be leaning back to the courts getting involved if they wanted to go through this process for anybody.

Frederica Freyberg:

So it could turn out to be a lot of time and trouble if they went ahead with that. Zac Schultz, thanks very much. Thanks for your coverage through these election seasons.

Zac Schultz:

Thanks, Fred.