Here & Now

Blue Wave Vs. Red Wall

Frederica Freyberg:

More politics and election coverage now with an inside look at Tuesday’s special election results. That’s when Democrat Caleb Frostman beat Republican Andre Jacque in the 1st Senate District and Republican Jon Plumer beat Democrat Ann Groves Lloyd in the 42nd Assembly District. What does this mean for Republicans and Democrats trying to set the stage for November? We turn to Capitol Consultants’ Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now. Thanks you guys for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

I read this headline that said it was the blue wave hitting the red wall. Scot, what do you think of the outcome of these elections?

Scot Ross:

I would say this, with all due respect to the headline writer of that, in the morning, Republicans had two seats. In the evening, Republicans had one seat and Democrats had one seat. That is a democratic victory. Lest we not forget of course that that democratic victory came in a place a democrat hasn’t held since 1977. So it is a great indication that people on the democratic side are enthusiastic about running to the polls. They certainly did that. It bodes really poorly for Scott Walker considering that’s the Green Bay media market where elections statewide are won and lost.

Frederica Freyberg:

Bill?

Bill McCoshen:

I think there’s some truth to the headline. If you look back at the 10th Senate District up in western Wisconsin in January, the democrat not only won a very republican seat, but won handily. So to the extent there was a blue wave in Wisconsin, I think that was probably the crest back in January. What happened on Tuesday night was you had a republican win a seat here in Dane County. I mean this should literally be the epicenter of the blue wave.

Frederica Freyberg:

It wasn’t all Dane County.

Bill McCoshen:

But it’s part of Dane County. I mean to the extent democrats can activate and mobilize volunteers, it should be Dane County, right? Jon Plumer not only won it but he won it by eight points. So I would say the blue wave is dissipating, at best.

Scot Ross:

I would say that Supreme Court Justice-Elect Rebecca Dallet would probably disagree with you that the blue wave was created with the 10th Senate District. I would point out one thing about the 42nd Assembly District. There are 21 seats in the Assembly that Republicans currently hold that have a higher Democratic performance than the 42nd Assembly District. That was a tough draw for the Democrats for that one to be on the ballot. Simple as that.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to ask you about Eric Holder’s group, the former Obama Administration attorney general and that group’s efforts to flip Wisconsin. What do you make of that?

Bill McCoshen:

So they’re two for two, right? I mean they played hard in the Supreme Court race and were successful obviously. They played hard in the 1st Senate District. It’s hard to tell how much they actually did in the 42nd but they were absolutely a factor in 1st Senate District, helped flip that. So they’ve had an impact but do they have staying power? Remains to be seen. Remember you’re going to have a different electorate in November than you had on Tuesday. I mean in the 1st Senate District alone, there will be at least 50,000 more voters than there were on Tuesday. When the percentages normalize themselves, that should help Andre Jacque have a real shot to take that seat back just 142 days from now.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you think Eric Holder’s group is going to play the field?

Scot Ross:

I would hope so. Every bit helps. And I think it shows the opportunity here in the state of Wisconsin for democrats, the fact that they are willing to come here and spend money. Again, back to the 1st Senate District and the Green Bay media market. When democrats win a statewide election, they get about 51% in the Green Bay media market. When they lose, they get about 40%. Scott Walker’s been up there– Friday was the first day in eight days he hadn’t been up in the Green Bay media market. So he recognizes that when he’s hemorrhaging things up there, whether it’s the 1st Senate District or Rebecca Dallet getting 52% up there, it’s a real problem for Scott Walker’s prospects come November.

Bill McCoshen:

The irony of all this as it relates to Holder, his group, they have a name redistricting in it. I mean it’s all about these maps are unfair and he’s now proven that you can win in Wisconsin as a democrat if you have the right candidate for the right seat. They’ve done it in the 10th and they’ve done it in the 1st.

Frederica Freyberg:

So we haven’t talked since the Wisconsin Broadcast Association had to cancel their debate because of the number of people that were going to be included. But in terms of the number of candidates running in this democratic primary, how did this help or hurt those candidates, the sheer size of the field?

Bill McCoshen:

Id say it helps Scott Walker, number one. I mean the fact that there won’t be a statewide debate, not a lot of democrats know who these people are. There will be a new Marquette Law poll out next week and then they’ll be one a month for the rest of the cycle. But none of them appear to be gaining much momentum to the extent that any of them are. It’s Kelda Roys. And none of them are getting any separation from the pack. So a statewide televised debate would have easily been in all of their interest and cancelling that is absolutely a win for Scott Walker.

Frederica Freyberg:

Who do you think it helps or hurts?

Scot Ross:

I think it helps the democrats, because not having one single debate, let’s not kid ourselves. The criteria for what the broadcaster wanted to do would eliminate over half of the candidates who are on the ballot. The democrats are traveling around the state. They’re getting media. They’re talking about the issues that they think will move the state forward and what differentiates them from their opponents as well as Scott Walker. I think it helps democrats. I don’t think it makes a difference. Honestly the three of us and maybe 20 other people were going to watch it anyway.

Frederica Freyberg:

Apparently there is another one being put together so I don’t want to suggest that there won’t be some kind of an appearance or debate with of these many people. But briefly, with about a minute left, all of this trade war stuff happening with Donald Trump, how does that affect Scott Walker and his kind of allegiance to the president?

Bill McCoshen:

Well, I don’t think you’re going to see any separation between Governor Walker and President Trump over the next 142 days that’s for sure. But as it relates to those trade wars, it’s dicey. Our farmers are very nervous about them. Canada absolutely imposes huge tariffs on our dairy products going north. So we’re all hopeful that the president is successful on this but they are giving him a short leash. If they don’t have new deals by Labor Day, it could be problems for republicans.

Frederica Freyberg:

Last word.

Scot Ross:

Scott Walker is tied to the hip with Donald Trump and that’s disastrous for him come November.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. We gotta leave it there. Thank you.

Bill McCoshen:

Good to see you.