Here & Now

Wisconsin at the 'Center of the Political Universe'

Frederica Freyberg:

Ten Democrats on one stage, each seeking the attention and the vote to move ahead to number one. Each and every one of them knows Wisconsin is most important in the 2020 election for president. So how did they fare in the eyes of the Wisconsin electorate? For that, we turn to political analyst former politician himself UW-Milwaukee Professor Emeritus Mordecai Lee. Thanks a lot for being here.

Mordecai Lee:

Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:

Who would you declare as the winners and losers in the third Democratic debate?

Mordecai Lee:

Well, as a Wisconsinite I suppose I root for the underdog, for the maverick. I think if we set aside the big three, that some of the others had good nights. Booker had a good night. O’Rourke had a good night. Klobuchar did. I think they were the stand-outs if we’re willing to sort of move away from the noise of the big three.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s take a look at one exchange from last night that focused on healthcare. Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar on the pros and cons of a Medicare-for-all plan.

Bernie Sanders:

I, who wrote the damn bill, if I may say so, intend to eliminate all out-of-pocket expenses.

Amy Klobuchar:

While Bernie wrote the bill, I read the bill. And on page eight of the bill, it says that we will no longer have private insurance as we know it.

Frederica Freyberg:

So that was kind of an “ouch” moment. What’s your reaction to that?

Mordecai Lee:

Well, generally speaking in politics you have to decide are you going to go for incrementalism – modest change, reform? Are you going or radical change? I think Bernie Sanders is the ultimate example of radical change. Klobuchar is trying to run in the middle but not get killed in the primaries. It’s hard to get enthusiastic from the voters for being moderate. I think she had a good moment there but it’s still a tough place to be politically.

Frederica Freyberg:

In terms of that, that interaction amongst the candidates on Medicare-for-all seems to delineate the split between the hard left and the more moderate Democrats. Does that seem accurate?

Mordecai Lee:

It does, Frederica. I’d like to suggest looking forward, I think Medicare-for-all might be political quicksand. Because I can imagine a Republican attack commercial that says to people, do you want to have taken away from you your employer health insurance? And given that most Americans have employer health insurance, I think that would radically change public opinion. And so this is a really tough stance. That’s why she was trying to say and Biden was trying to say, let’s go for incrementalism instead.

Frederica Freyberg:

Latest polling in Wisconsin as you know from Marquette Law has former vice-president Joe Biden favored by 51% and President Donald Trump by 42% among Wisconsin registered voters. What could upset that kind of lead in Wisconsin in the coming months?

Mordecai Lee:

I think most of those results are name recognition. Have you heard of this person? Do you know this person? I think as soon as we start getting results from Iowa and then New Hampshire, I think those poll results will fade into the past because then people will be concentrating on the viable candidates of those 10. But right now, they’re sort of the stand-outs because people are familiar with them.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now, you have a prediction. I’d like to hear it.

Mordecai Lee:

Okay. I’m going to predict that the ultimate democratic nominee is neither going to be Sanders nor Biden. I just have a feeling they’re not going to wear well. Now, I might be wrong and if I’m wrong, I hope you will erase this tape. But I think the Democratic voters are ultimately going to decide they want a new face and a younger face.

Frederica Freyberg:

So you make that prediction that it will be neither Biden nor Sanders and you say a new face. Like who?

Mordecai Lee:

Oh gosh, how about any of the other eight or the other seven, it seems to me. I think they all showed themselves to be articulate and policy wonks. They knew what they were talking about. They knew how to talk in sound bites. I’m guessing 7 of those 10 are going to be viable, attractive candidates.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now as you know, all eyes are on Wisconsin as the crucial battleground state of the 2020 presidential election. What in your mind is going to win the vote of Wisconsin independents who might have flipped say from Barack Obama to Donald Trump?

Mordecai Lee:

Wisconsin is such a divided state. When in the last presidential election, it was won by about 22,000 votes over I think it was 2 1/2 million votes cast. Or in the last Supreme Court election, that it was won by 6,000 votes. If you’re just looking at it as a statistician, that’s almost like a random result. That’s just so indecipherable and so unpredictable. So I guess the lesson here is it says that every vote counts. You can’t take anything for granted. And in particular what happened with Clinton is she did not excite African-American voters in Milwaukee. And so you need a candidate who would do that. Certainly people who like Trump are not going to change. But Wisconsin has such a new category of flip voters. In other words, college-educated women. That is the target demographic. Whoever wins them is going to win Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:

For a political junkie like yourself, how exciting is this race and Wisconsin’s place in it?

Mordecai Lee:

You know, Frederica, I’ve been following Wisconsin politics since I was an undergrad in Madison in the 1960s. I have to say I never imagined that Wisconsin would be the center of the political universe. I think it’s not an exaggeration to say that we in Wisconsin are going to elect the next president. That’s astonishing for such a small state. We have, I think, it’s 10 Electoral College votes. But there are so few states that can flip. In fact, Julian Castro at the beginning of his statement yesterday, he listed about half a dozen states that really were targets for Democrats. Wisconsin, of course, was on it. So I think we can sort of sit back and almost feel like we’re in New Hampshire or we’re in Iowa. That’s how much people are going to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right, Mordecai Lee. We’ll be speaking with you as the months go by. Thanks very much.

Mordecai Lee:

Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:

Even as Democrats running for president debated in Texas, the Trump campaign paid a visit to Wisconsin. Senior Campaign Advisor Kimberly Guilfoyle appeared at UW-Madison. She spoke at a rally sponsored by the Campus College Republicans.

Kimberly Guilfoyle:

Their politics, their ideology, what they want to put forward really is socialism. It’s going to create stagnant wages and less job opportunities. So why would we let them squander the 6 million new jobs already created? But I will tell you something, the United States, President Trump is re-elected in 2020, America will never be a socialist country.

[applause]