Here & Now

Will the Supreme Court Motivate Dems or the GOP in November?

Zac Schultz:

For some people, the calendar says it’s the middle of summer. But for our next guests we are exactly four months from the November election. We welcome back Capitol Consultants Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now. Thanks for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks for having us.

Zac Schultz:

Well sometime next week the president is expected to announce his choice to replace the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy in the U.S. Supreme Court. Scot, Merrick Garland isn’t on the list. Are all of these choices equally bad from your point of view?

Scot Ross:

Well from the short list that we’ve seen, these are people who have absolute hostility to rights that we hold dear. Whether it’s the right to choose. Whether it’s the right to not be discriminated against when you have pre-existing conditions. Whether it’s the right to go out and cast your ballot and have that counted. All across the board, these candidates have a hostility to that. I think that’s going to motivate democrats even more to make sure they get to the polls in November. And I think it’s one thing that Scott Walker’s not going to be able to avoid having a conversation about because he’s obscured on those things in the past. He’s not going to be able to hide from them this election.

Zac Schultz:

Are there differences that you see between the options out there?

Bill McCoshen:

Yeah, first of all, let’s talk about the list. I mean talk about transparency. This list was public two months before he was elected president of the United States. He put it out there for everyone. He’s added some names to it since then. Was originally 20 names, now it’s 25. But those names have been public for years now. So people have had the opportunity to look at them, to look at the cases that they presided over during that period of time. That’s unprecedented in political history. So kudos to the president for being transparent about this. Secondly, I think regardless of who he picks on Monday night, that person is going to get confirmed by the United States Senate. Now, it might not be till October, but I think at a minimum it will gin up the Republican base so to the extent there was an enthusiasm gap heading into this election, that’ll be gone.

Zac Schultz:

Now there seems like there’s been an internal debate among conservatives about whether to talk about overturning Roe v. Wade. Is that the center of the debate? Do you think that should that a part of the conversation?

Bill McCoshen:

I think that’s what liberals want it to be about. I don’t think that’s what it’ll ultimately be about. I mean ultimately on the list of potential nominees, Amy Coney Barrett, Kethledge, Kavanaugh, all three of those have been on this list for some time now, with the exception of Barrett. She’s the youngest. She’s a catholic. She’s 46 years old. All of them are within a few years of one another. I think the oldest of the three is 52 years old. So they’re going to be on the court for a couple generations, 25, 30 years. I don’t think Roe is going to be the deciding factor. I’m not sure that this court is going to take that up anytime soon. However, I think there are some possibilities that they could limit types of abortion, like the Iowa case, three-day waiting period. I could see the next Supreme Court getting that case and potentially siding with the state of Iowa.

Zac Schultz:

In 2016 republicans rallied around Trump under the idea of the Supreme Court. Does that work for democrats? Because they didn’t seem to be inspired by defending President Obamas choice.

Scot Ross:

I think the right has made it a cottage industry to invest money and resources into winning the third branch of government with the same tenacity that they try and win the other two branches. Without a doubt, democrats and progressives are woefully over-matched in terms of money and funding. But when you talk about these fundamental rights of the right to choose, because listen, to get on that list which was created by the Federalist Society for Donald Trump, to get on that list you had to say, “I want to end Roe versus Wade.” Donald Trump said, “I want to end Roe versus Wade” during the campaign and said he wanted to punish women and doctors who are, enact– participate in abortions for god’s sakes. I mean, we’re talking about putting women in jail. I think that it’s a real wake-up call to the left. I think it’s a wake-up call to independents and I think it is going to be devastating, this conversation, to the republicans because it’s only going to grow enthusiasm on the democratic side.

Bill McCoshen:

We can’t know for sure. A judge can’t answer that question. Whether they’re running for the Wisconsin Supreme Court or the United States Supreme Court during that committee hearing, they can’t answer how they would vote on X or Y. But you can some assume things based on previous cases. I think those jurists that are on the short list are generally pro-life but again, I don’t think this is ultimately going to be about overturning Roe down the road.

Zac Schultz:

The president was in Wisconsin last week for Foxconn groundbreaking. While there he criticized Harley-Davidson yet again. Governor Walker had nothing to say. Is he just in a politically impossible situation when he’s got the president in his backyard and he’s bashing the motorcycle company that Governor Walker rides?

Bill McCoshen:

Well here’s where the governor and the president agree. They both agree that tariffs are bad, period, full stop. Whether it’s us imposing tariffs on other countries or other countries imposing tariffs on us. For example, in the dairy industry, they have a 270% tariff on our dairy products. Well that’s ridiculous. That’s not fair trade. That’s not free trade. What the president’s trying to do is create a situation where we have free and fair trade globally, not just between one or two countries and that some countries are taking advantage. Now, I will say this. The methods are bumpy. I mean there’s going to be some pain, both in the dairy industry, in the steel industry, you know. This isn’t going to be easy and the other countries appear to be fighting back. But I think long-term his goal is the right one, which is free and fair trade. And that’s where Walker is too. So I think he’s on safe ground. And by the way, the workers at Harley-Davidson are with Trump on this.

Zac Schultz:

What about Governor Walker’s response? What should he be saying?

Scot Ross:

I think there’s a real problem for Governor Walker on this because again, he has to thread the needle because he cannot afford to lose a single Trump voter. And he can’t have Donald Trump come out and criticize him. That’s for sure. And that’s why Scott Walker sat there completely feckless and refused to do things like one: he refused to criticize the president for having baby jails. He refused to criticize Donald Trump for attacking Harley-Davidson. And he refused to criticize Donald Trump for attacking our brewers, our agriculture and our manufacturers. And it’s not so much that Scott Walker won’t stand up to Donald Trump. It’s that Scott Walker won’t stand up for Wisconsinites. That’s the real problem he has because I think in poll after poll I’ve ever seen, the one thing that Scott Walker has going for him is that his base thinks that he is a strong leader. When he looks weak, that’s a problem.

Zac Schultz:

Is Governor Walker at risk of losing some moderate republicans who say, “Hey, why don’t you at least defend Harley-Davidson?”

Bill McCoshen:

Well again the workers with Harley are with Trump on this. They think that the company is making a mistake. The CEO of Harley-Davidson has chosen, consciously chosen, not to criticize the president. So there was a business decision made here. The truth is their U.S. market is declining. Their European market is increasing. That is the primary reason why they’re putting some of these jobs offshore. Long-term, I wish they wouldn’t do it. And that’s where the president’s at and I believe that’s where the governor’s at.

Zac Schultz:

Now despite all that, the latest Marquette poll shows Governor Walker with a lead over every possible democratic candidate. He’s spending millions on positive I.D. ads for himself right now. Do democrats have a chance after the August election or is that too late for them to actually get some name I.D.?

Scot Ross:

Well I’ll take the first part first which is the Marquette poll. The Marquette poll sample said that his prediction for the electorate in 2018 is the exact same electorate as 2014, a plus three republican. Yes, Scott Walker’s numbers are going to go up if you include more republicans in the poll. Simple as that. Second thing is in 2002 I worked on a gubernatorial primary. There was a very robust gubernatorial primary back there. And democrats actually had an extra– had one month less after that primary because the primary used to be held in the middle of September. And they won and ousted an incumbent governor. Scott Walker’s poll numbers, when it comes to what real working families are looking, are in the tank. Scott Walker’s got really problems. He’s been in office for 25 years. He’s only 50 years old. And I think that that’s a real problem for him.

Bill McCoshen:

If I had to predict, Tony Evers is going to win the democratic primary. There’s only 39 days left in that democratic primary. There’s still eight candidates. He’s got a large lead. He’s got 25% in the Marquette poll. The next closest is at 7%. There’s no real way for any of those others to sort of jump ahead of him. There’s only 34% undecided at this point in time. But having said that, if Im right and Evers wins the nomination on August 15, how does he run against Walker? I mean this is the greatest economy Wisconsin’s had since Tommy Thompson was governor for sure and one of the greatest ever. So I think whether it’s investments in K-12 education or it’s backfilling on Obamacare where the Obama Administration came short, Walker handled that with the stability fund. I mean, a variety, thing after thing. Voters vote their pocketbook first, Zac. And Walker’s in strong standing.

Zac Schultz:

All right, ten seconds for each of you. Do we see more democrats drop out before the primary?

Scot Ross:

I’m not going to predict that. I don’t know.

Bill McCoshen:

They should, but they won’t.

Zac Schultz:

All right. Thank you gentlemen. Have a good weekend.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Thanks for having us.