Ron Kind:

This will be my last term in office. I will not seek re-election as representative of this congressional district come next year. The truth is, I’ve run out of gas.

Frederica Freyberg:

Ron Kind’s decision to not seek re-election in his Third Congressional District raises the political stakes for Democrats and Republicans alike. The open seat adds drama to the 2022 election cycle that will also see a hotly-contested U.S. Senate race with or without incumbent Ron Johnson running again. Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin joins us to talk about the implications of that open seat, as well as share results from his new statewide poll. Charles, very nice to see you again.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you. Good to be back.

Frederica Freyberg:

So I wanted to start with the news of Congressman Ron Kind not running for re-election was the writing on the wall in that western Wisconsin district for a Democrat?

Charles Franklin:

Well, what’s happened is Donald Trump won that district both in 2016 and 2018, Governor Evers and Tammy Baldwin won it as well. So it’s really the most competitive seat in the state right now, and it’s one that’s been moving in a more Republican direction. For the Democrats, this is a big loss, to lose Kind as an incumbent trying to hold that district. Now it will be an open seat. And with Democrats only controlling the House by about five seats, losing one like this one is an important development for Democrats. Finally, we don’t know what redistricting will do to that district. It could tilt it in a more Republican direction as well.

Frederica Freyberg:

The man who narrowly lost to Kind in the last election, Derrick Van Orden, was just endorsed by Donald Trump. Is that kind of the way of the third in your mind?

Charles Franklin:

Well, I think it’s a mixed picture. I think certainly the third voted for Trump by small margins but consistent margins twice, and the role of the Trump wing of the party within the GOP is a big deal. And certainly developing through the 2022 election. On the other hand, the district has some solid Democratic areas like La Crosse, and so how that develops could advantage Democrats in trying to sort of replicate the successes in 2018 rather than the losses in the district at the presidential level in 2020.

Frederica Freyberg:

That would be their hope. Now, swinging into your polling, results show Joe Biden’s approval at 49%, disapproval 46% of those you surveyed in Wisconsin. That compares to Tony Evers’ approval numbers, 50% approve, 43% disapprove. Those numbers despite the hammering that Tony Evers gets from the other side of the aisle. What is leading to that approval number?

Charles Franklin:

Evers, first of all, didn’t change at all from our last poll, which was in October of 2020, when it was at 50-43 then as well. So no shift for him. With both Biden and Evers, they have pretty strong approval numbers on their handling of the coronavirus. With Evers, it’s 54 to 39, and that’s an improvement from October, with Biden, of course, he hadn’t been president, before in our polling, but his coronavirus approval is 54 to 42. So the handling of coronavirus as much as it is a divisive partisan issue has nevertheless helped both Evers and Biden.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s take a look at Ron Johnson’s number. Poll numbers show Republican U.S. Senator Ron Johnson is viewed favorably by 35% of your respondents, unfavorably 42%. Now being underwater isn’t great for a politician who hasn’t announced whether he’ll run for re-election, so what do you think he’ll decide about running again?

Charles Franklin:

Oh, I’m sure not going to try to forecast what he’ll decide. I’m waiting along with everybody else on that. This is some slippage from October, when he was at 38-36, a net two points positive versus a net seven points negative this time. This is the third worst favorability rating for Senator Johnson but the caveat is his two worst ratings were in 2015, 16 months before he ran successfully for re-election in 2016. So I think these numbers are worth watching and see how they trend, but in 2015 to 2016, they trended consistently up through the election victory. I don’t think we should look at these numbers and say they’re in any way definitive for what the 2022 election outcome might be if he decides to run.

Frederica Freyberg:

So Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin’s numbers are close, but at least right side up. Your survey shows that she has a 21% number of people who have no opinion of her, likewise with Senator Johnson, it was 23%, I think. I don’t get these kinds of results in the “no opinion” or “don’t know” numbers in this crazy hyper-partisan era.

Charles Franklin:

I know, and it comes up every time we do a survey. Usually Senator Johnson is in the higher 20s or even the low 30s for not recognizing him or not knowing enough to say. Baldwin is usually in the mid-20s. So both of them are a little more recognized in this survey than they often have been, but it’s still 1 in 5 or 1 in 4 voters who say they don’t know enough to have an opinion about their two U.S. Senators who have been in office since 2010 and 2012? So it is sort of a striking result, but it’s one that’s incredibly consistent over time. I think in one sense, these folks are off in Washington or they’re on national cable TV, but maybe they’re not seen sort of day to day in local news coverage or there are stories about them but somehow that just doesn’t penetrate to the people that are not very, very into politics.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to ask you about the COVID vaccine status. On the uptake of the COVID vaccine, once again, a partisan split as has been reported. Among Republicans, 45% have at least one dose, among Democrats, 87%. Why is this a partisan thing?

Charles Franklin:

Well, that’s the big mystery, and this is a basic health issue. You would think that that’s consequential enough that mere partisan politics wouldn’t matter very much. But as the issue was politicized throughout 2020, and has continued now with debates over masks or schools and whether school children can or cannot wear masks, this issue has just proliferated. I will note that overall, we showed 68% who said they’ve been vaccinated, and that happens to be exactly what the Centers for Disease Control reports as the overall rate in Wisconsin for people 18 and over, which of course is who we surveyed. So I think you could wonder whether Democrats are over reporting vaccinations and Republicans underreporting it, but certainly in the aggregate, these numbers turn out to be spot-on with the CDC data. So I think it’s reasonable to be pretty convinced that this partisan difference really does stand up, even if maybe it not quite as large as what the data show, I’m going with the data.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Well, Charles Franklin, thank you very much and thank you very much for your data. Nice to see you.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.