Here & Now

What's the Trump Factor for Rural Wisconsin Voters in 2026?

Frederica Freyberg:
As to Donald Trump’s record low approval ratings, his grip may even be slipping with his strongest base: voters in rural areas. Steven Potter has this report on Trump’s political power in rural Wisconsin and if his influence helps or hurts Republicans on the ballot.

Donald Trump:
So on Election Day, November 3rd, you got to do me a favor. You got to get out and vote, and you’re going to pretend I’m on the ballot because in a way, I am on the ballot.

Steven Potter:
There’s no denying Steven Potter political power and his desire to snatch the spotlight, even though he’s not on the ballot in November.

Donald Trump:
Pretend I’m on the ticket because this is going to turn out to be one of the most important elections. It’s a midterm.

Steven Potter:
And his reasoning to do so, he says, is to motivate voters to choose Republican candidates so his party can maintain majority control of Congress. But the president’s popularity is declining even in rural areas. The cost of diesel fuel is breaking records. Tariffs and trade wars are hurting crop sales and war overseas adds to financial uncertainty.

Joe Handrick:
The great debate is will Donald Trump help Republican candidates or hurt them?

Steven Potter:
Joe Handrick is a Republican political analyst and former Republican state lawmaker. He thinks Trump can help push people to the polls, especially in midterm elections, which are known for lower voter turnout.

Joe Handrick:
I think Donald Trump is needed to help bring out those nontraditional voters that like him, but who otherwise may stay at home this November. Up until recently, Republicans always benefited from a lower turnout. But in the last few years, that has really switched. Democratic voters are now more highly motivated to vote. They’re more regular voters. The areas of the state that have become more Republican contain more voters who are occasional voters.

Steven Potter:
And the state’s more rural areas are decidedly Republican.

Joe Handrick:
In the Trump era, western and northern Wisconsin, particularly rural communities, have gotten very, very red.

Steven Potter:
Rural Wisconsin voters are vital to the Republican election strategy, serving as a counterweight to the state’s deep blue urban centers. And because Wisconsin is one of the nation’s most closely divided swing states, higher voter turnout in rural areas can be the deciding factor in regional and statewide elections.

Jerry Helmer:
Sauk County is very purple. I mean, it’s pretty much 50/50 across the board.

Judith Willink Grose:
Our voters here have been very predictive of how elections have turned out.

Steven Potter:
There’s one spot in rural Wisconsin that might be the best place to measure Donald Trump’s political influence. Except for one race, Sauk County has voted for the statewide winner in elections for president, U.S. Senate and governor since the year 2000. For president, that means that Sauk County voted for Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden in 2020, and then again picked Trump in 2024.

Jerry Helmer:
Donald Trump was such a driving force in that election, that’s why he won.

Steven Potter:
Jerry Helmer is chair of the Republican Party of Sauk County. He says that Trump’s double victory here is why the Republican president could and should help push Republican candidates across the finish line in November, but he also remembers past elections.

Jerry Helmer:
In the 2024 election, Trump just drew the young people out in in droves. And something that I saw happen in Sauk County actually was a lot of the younger people and people that were new to voting, they only voted for Donald Trump. They didn’t vote down ballot. And that made a huge difference because we lost down ballot in that election when we shouldn’t have.

Judith Willink Grose:
Everybody I talk to, when we have meetings, membership meetings, the comments are always, always coming back to the current administration.

Steven Potter:
Judith Willink Grose is the chair of the Sauk County Democratic Party. She says Trump is also a hot topic for Democrats, and they’re using his unpopularity to rally and reach voters in their base.

Judith Willink Grose:
When candidates are out there, you know, that the whole thing about Trump is in the back of their mind. And when you go door to door, it always comes up.

Steven Potter:
But he still may pull in more Republican voters than he pushes away.

Jerry Helmer:
He talks to people like most people talk. That’s what attracted me to him initially was, you know, this guy talks like I do. He doesn’t hold his tongue. He says what he thinks. He’s a bit of an arrogant ass at times, but that’s who he is. Look at what he’s done with the Gulf of America and now Lake America. You know, those types of things. And maybe that’s something to be proud of if you’re a patriot and you care about this country.

Steven Potter:
But Grose says Trump’s influence is diminished.

Judith Willink Grose:
His political power in rural Wisconsin, particularly with farmers, is not as strong as it was. The actions of President Trump are helping the Democrats because we offer a very stark contrast to what he has offered and what he has carried through on.

David Helpap:
We have a president that has been very clear about making the midterm election about him.

Steven Potter:
UW-Green Bay political science professor David Helpap is keenly watching the state’s rural voters. While it varies in severity from poll to poll, Donald Trump is losing ground with rural Americans. Reuters Ipsos poll found only 31% of rural residents approved of the president’s handling of the economy. And a Fox News poll found Trump’s rural approval rating dropped to a record low of 44%. Helpap says many of the issues important to rural voters are also important to urban and suburban voters.

David Helpap:
Rising costs, affordability issues, concerns about data centers and concerns about foreign affairs, and what that’s doing to domestic issues.

Steven Potter:
But he adds that some things hit harder in communities where agriculture is the primary source of income.

David Helpap:
Those issues are also sort of outsized in rural communities, particularly related to the costs for food, for diesel fuel, for fertilizer, because these have a big impact on rural communities.

Steven Potter:
Over the last decade, the urban/rural divide has deepened significantly. And in 2024, Donald Trump won Wisconsin’s rural areas by more than 20%, showcasing just how deeply anchored the GOP is to these communities.

David Helpap:
Over the last several election cycles when President Trump hasn’t been on the ballot, turnout has been lower, particularly for typically Republican voters.

Steven Potter:
Helpap says enthusiasm, for better or worse, could affect turnout.

David Helpap:
Maybe you don’t go and vote for a Democrat, but maybe you just stay home.

Steven Potter:
Still, both Democrats and Republicans are using Trump to help them push people to the polls.

Judith Willink Grose:
I don’t know if I’ll use the phrase “blue wave.” I mean, that’s very colorful and kind of exciting, but the Democratic candidates are doing well.

Jerry Helmer:
Republicans tend to be lazy when it comes to the midterms and turning out to vote. That’s why we keep getting beat but I don’t think it’s going to be true this time.

Steven Potter:
Reporting from Sauk County, I’m Steven Potter for “Here & Now.”