Here & Now

What's Next? McCoshen & Ross Discuss Where Campaigns Go Now

Frederica Freyberg:

Now to other races on the ballot this primary week. Governor Scott Walker easily won a primary challenge from opponent Robert Meyer. Walker repeated his pledge to keep Wisconsin moving forward on election night.

Scott Walker:

All over the state I hear people say we want to keep moving forward. We want to vote for someone with a positive agenda that’s going to move us forward. We don’t want to go backwards. We don’t want to go back to the days when our kids, when our graduates had to go to some other state to pursue their career. That’s not where we want to head in this state. We want to keep moving forward.

Frederica Freyberg:

Governor Scott Walker on election night. In the crowded field of Democrats, State School Superintendent Tony Evers put a 25-point spread between himself and the second place finisher Mahlon Mitchell. Evers says he too is ready to move the state forward.

Tony Evers:

We are going to be focused on issues that he has avoided or failed in going forward. So whatever he’s proposed, I’m not concerned about. It’s what our race is about, is the people of Wisconsin have values that have been essentially shredded by Scott Walker and Rebecca Kleefisch for the last eight years. We will be going forward with our agenda.

Frederica Freyberg:

And now for a closer look at all things general election. For that we go to our partisan sharpshooters, Bill McCoshen of Capital Consultants and Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now. Thanks for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

Before we talk about the governor’s race, let’s talk about the U.S. Senate race. Does Leah Vukmir, in your mind, have a Trump problem?

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t think so. In fact, if I’m running her campaign, I’m bringing the president to the state. I’m bringing him to Green Bay. I’m bringing him to Wausau, maybe La Crosse. I think that would be very helpful. If you look at the map from primary election night, she won 15 counties, most of those in southeast Wisconsin. She won, yes, Pierce County and Dane County. But largely her race was won and lost in southeast Wisconsin. Obviously she needs to do some catching up in Green Bay’s market, Wausau, Eau Claire, Superior, my hometown. So, yeah, I’d bring President Trump here in a heartbeat.

Scot Ross:

Please do. Please bring President Trump. Again because when you’re talking about La Crosse and Eau Claire those both topped out at about 40% for Trump. So we can get those down under 40%, I think it will be a good night for Democrats up and down the ticket. What I’d say is this. Leah’s problem is a couple things. One, she has to heal the party. You know, her forces were out there telling all of Kevin Nicholson’s voters that you’re kind of dumb because you’re voting for the Democrat. I mean that’s basically what’s happened for the last six, eight months. I actually thought it was going to prevail. But it turns out it prevailed in six of the media markets, but not one. Leah Vukmir won the southeastern Wisconsin media market. I think her biggest problem with Trump there is the fact that those women, suburban moms, have a real problem with what Trump has said. I think the closer she gets to Trump, the further she gets away from winning the general.

Bill McCoshen:

I think southeast Wisconsin voters, women in particular, are smart. They understand. Leah Vukmir is a mom on a vision. She’s not going to Washington to get along. She’s going there to shake things up. She’s not going to take her seat and do what the old boys tell her to do or what the establishment tells her to do. She’s there to make a difference. I think women will figure that out and separate her from Trump, particularly in southeast Wisconsin. She’s not going to have a problem with voters over there.

Frederica Freyberg:

How resonant is Vukmir calling Baldwin a far left, out of touch elite?

Scot Ross:

Wow, now she’s going to say tax and spend liberal, you know. I mean that’s the playbook. They have the playbook. That’s the way they’re running it. For Leah, her big challenge is Leah has never won an election in a seat that is Democratic. She had Scott Walker’s Assembly seat. Then she knocked off an incumbent Democrat in her state Senate race in 2010 who is in a marginal Republican district. She’s never had to play to that. She’s basically kind of sat in the back and done whatever the Republicans told her. Here’s the question I want her to answer.

Bill McCoshen:

False, totally false.

Scot Ross:

I want her to answer this question. In testimony in our federal court case, it was said that Leah Vukmir was giddy at the prospect of disenfranchising students and African-Americans in Milwaukee. She didn’t answer the question then when she was asked by the press. We need to make sure she answers that question now. Was she giddy doing that?

Bill McCoshen:

Leah’s tough. She just got out-spent four to one in a primary. There was $10 or $11 million spent against her yet she beat a combat marine. That’s one tough cookie. I would take that any day in a general election.

Frederica Freyberg:

What about the Tomah VA opioid scandal that resulted in Tammy Baldwin having to fire people and demote staff? That’s another one of Leah Vukmir’s prongs here.

Scot Ross:

I think she has — Senator Baldwin has spent a lot of time trying to make sure that our veterans are protected —

Bill McCoshen:

Trying to cover it up.

Scot Ross:

— and to make sure that we protect from the scourge of opioids. We’d have a better chance of dealing with that if we had an attorney general and governor who were willing to sue the Purdue Pharma and other pharmaceutical manufacturers. Now we have — Donald Trump has announced he wants Jeff Sessions to sue the opioid manufacturers. It seems that everybody wants them to be sued but Walker and Schimel.

Bill McCoshen:

For your viewers, this is the first time in Wisconsin electoral history that we have two women vying for a major statewide office. So I think that’s noteworthy in and of itself but the contrast between the two could not be sharper on every single issue. You’ve already interviewed Leah tonight. Whether it’s taxes. Whether it’s government spending. Whether it’s health care. Whether it’s the Supreme Court pick Judge Kavanaugh or whether it’s the Tomah VA. Their positions are diametrically different.

Frederica Freyberg:

So how scorched earth is this race going to be?

Scot Ross:

I think that’s the only chance Leah Vukmir has is to try and go as negative and as nasty as possible because there is Democratic enthusiasm out there. Democrats support Senator Baldwin. Independents support Senator Baldwin. It’s why she was able to knock off Tommy Thompson in 2012, who I think we can all agree is probably the most gifted politician on either side that we’ve had in the last generation.

Bill McCoshen:

I’ll take that but I would say she doesn’t have to be personally negative. The contrast is so sharp on the policy difference, that that’s what Vukmir should focus on.

Frederica Freyberg:

What’s the money race going to look like?

Bill McCoshen:

It depends. I mean I’m hopeful that the national money comes in early for Leah, which it did not for Tommy in 2012. And Tammy Baldwin was able to redefine Tommy between the primary election and Labor Day and none of us thought it was possible but by golly, it was possible. So the national money or the Uline money needs to come in relatively quick to give Leah a fighting chance.

Scot Ross:

Yeah, I think that’s the big elephant in the room, is whether or not the Illinois billionaire is going to come in after losing all his money trying to get Kevin Nicholson across the line. That’s the big she has. You know that Uline is a problem not just for Leah, but it is also a problem for Scott Walker because all of Scott Walker team was with Leah Vukmir, his kid, his wife, you know.

Bill McCoshen:

The party was. She won the party endorsement.

Scot Ross:

The Walker machine basically rigging the election for her because a couple people at the convention voted on her behalf.

Bill McCoshen:

Unlike Democrats with super delegates.

Scot Ross:

If I’m Dick Uline, I’m sitting there looking at the governor race that I have in my own state and I’m saying you know what? I think I’ll just keep my money here for the rest of the cycle.

Frederica Freyberg:

We’ll see. But speaking of scorched earth, let’s take a listen to snippets of ads in the governor’s race.

Male narrator:

A teacher viewed and shared pornographic material at school. Tony Evers knew about it. The same teacher made sexual remarks about the bodies of middle school girls. Evers knew that, too. Yet despite calls from parents and school officials, Tony Evers sided with the union and refused to revoke the teacher’s license.

Frederica Freyberg:

So is this the Tony Evers didn’t strip the license of the bad teacher going to be like Wisconsin’s latest version of Willy Horton?

Scot Ross:

Well according to Scott Walker it is because Scott Walker spent $3 million, he and Americans For Prosperity, trying to be positive. His numbers continue to be in the tank. So he is doing what he has always done which is try and divide Wisconsin to win an election. Scott Walker is a 25-year career politician. He will say anything. He will do anything to get re-elected. The fact is is that Scott Walker is passing the buck and Tony Evers passed a law to make sure that this kind of thing — because he was unable to do what they are accusing him of doing because of the law. Now Scott Walker may not care about following the law, but Tony Evers does, and the vast majority of Wisconsinites want their elected officials to follow the law.

Bill McCoshen:

First of all, the attack is true. So if it wasn’t true, that might be problematic for Walker. But I think Walker’s trying to define Evers before Evers can define himself. Remember, on the last two Marquette polls about 50% of the people statewide had no idea who Tony Evers is. Scott Walker’s been governor for eight years. He’s got 99% name ID. Everybody knows who he is. He won’t have any problem defending his record. But part of this is to turn the tables and start to define Tony Evers before Tony can define himself, number one. Number two, he’s kicking out Tony’s best leg of his stool, which is education, right? He’s the DPI superintendent three times elected. Maybe he wasn’t minding the store when he was doing that job.

Frederica Freyberg:

So when you’re saying that the ad is true, it’s true that Tony Evers knew about it.

Bill McCoshen:

Correct.

Frederica Freyberg:

But there was a state law that prevented him from stripping the license of the teacher.

Bill McCoshen:

It’s true he knew about it. The governor even sent him a letter back then. He chose not to do anything. He could have challenged the law. He could have suspended the license and had the teacher or the union sue him. That would have been an option for sure.

Scot Ross:

The fact is when you talk about being asleep at the switch and not minding the store, when the bill came up before the legislature in May of 2011, Scott Walker’s office didn’t register in favor of it. Didn’t come to testify, didn’t do anything. In fact, when they put out a press release about the bill being signed, he didn’t even mention that bill in any of the quotes that he did. Scott Walker didn’t care about this issue until he realized that he is going to lose this coming election if he doesn’t try and tear Tony down.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. So we’re likely to see more and more of that. Let’s take a look now at an ad in support of Tony Evers.

Male narrator:

You know who they are, the politicians who only care about politics. But then there’s this teacher. Started out in a classroom in Baraboo, became a principal in Tomah, then superintendent of 2,000 public schools. His life’s mission is to make their lives better. So you can forget the lobbyists and their politicians. They’ll never change.

Frederica Freyberg:

You don’t like that line about lobbyists.

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t necessarily like that line, but I think it actually amplifies the attack ad cause it’s telling people this guy is part of the education establishment here in the state of Wisconsin. The other ad is more powerful. The attack ad. This one actually amplifies the attack, I think, and reminds people this guy is part of the school establishment and oh, by the way, he may have missed one.

Scot Ross:

I think the cake is baked on Scott Walker. He’s not out there talking about the good things he’s going to do or he’s not talking about the good things he’s done. He’s talking about things he could have done over the last eight years and didn’t do, like student loan debt and child care. I mean, and I think that’s where– I mean I think that’s a challenge. He’s going after Tony because he called himself the education governor after making the largest cuts to public education in our state’s history. Education is going to be a top issue. It is for Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Bill McCoshen:

So as the only living campaign manager of a candidate who ran and won a third term in the state of Wisconsin, I can tell you it has to be about the future. Can’t just be about the past. I think Walker’s got an incredible record that he can run on of things he’s gotten done over the course of the last two terms but he has to have a forward-looking agenda. That’s what he’s beginning to roll out.

Frederica Freyberg:

In fact, a new ad this week, just after the primary as you were speaking to, talks about giving a $5,000 tax credit to college grads who stay and work in the state and child care tax credits and things for senior citizens. Who doesn’t like money in hand?

Scot Ross:

Here’s the thing. If you have watched Scott Walker, you’re reminded of in 2014 when he looked in the camera and told the women of Wisconsin I will leave the final decisions about reproductive freedom between you and your doctor and then two months later signed the 20-week ban on abortion. The guy will say anything and do anything to win elections. I think the problem he has this time is that the enthusiasm on the Democratic side is so high. We saw more than– 100,000 more Democrats vote in the primary and with all that money spent

Bill McCoshen:

People like money in hand, just like you said. I mean I think 85 or 90% of the eligible applicants applied for that $100 child care tax credit when it was available over the course of the summer. Anybody who had an opportunity to take advantage of the school sales tax holiday this past week took advantage of it. So those are things they like. But more than that, we’ve had six straight months of unemployment below 3%. That’s the first time in our history where that’s happened. More people working than ever before and wages are now going up. The economy’s booming here. This election ends up being a referendum on the economy, Walker wins easily.

Scot Ross:

I think it’s a referendum on your wallet. And when you’re putting out money for student loan debt every month, when you’re putting out money for child care, when you’re putting out money if you have to take family medical leave, that’s what matters. Numbers don’t matter. What matters is what’s in your wallet.

Frederica Freyberg:

What about Scott Walker, does he have a Donald Trump problem with these tariffs and Harley Davidson?

Scot Ross:

Well, here’s the thing. Scott Walker has three advantages: money, unity in the Republican Party and strength. His money is down.

Bill McCoshen:

But he’s got a lot.

Scot Ross:

He’s got a fractured party with the whole Leah/Nicholson primary and now with his fecklessness with Donald Trump where he wouldn’t even defend– would even criticize baby jails makes him look weak. He’s going to have that problem throughout this election.

Frederica Freyberg:

We can say what we will, but Larry Sabato, the crystal ball, turned this from a leans Republican to a toss-up. Why is that?

Bill McCoshen:

It’s going to be competitive. The governor himself has said he wouldn’t be surprised if on Marquette’s poll next week, it actually showed him behind by a point or two. And I wouldn’t either. Could be tied. Could have Walker up, could have Evers up by a couple. I mean this is going to be a competitive race for the final 80 days. There’s no question about it. It’s still Wisconsin. Yeah, Walker’s got 99% name ID, but he can’t take anything for granted in this race. It’s a tough political environment. On the Trump issue, I don’t understand why he’s not bringing the president to the state. He said he’s not going to campaign with the president here. I think that’s a mistake. I think he ought to campaign with him, particularly up north.

Frederica Freyberg:

Final word.

Scot Ross:

I think that the cake is baked on Scott Walker. Democrats need to get sure they get their voters out. I think with the ticket of Tony Evers and Mandela Barnes, they’re going to get their voters out.

Frederica Freyberg:

Both of you, thank you.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks.