Frederica Freyberg:

What does the Wisconsin spring election portend for the fall election? How to measure that with such low turnout? We talk now with UW-Milwaukee Political Scientist Mordecai Lee. Thanks for being here. Nice to see you.

Mordecai Lee:

A pleasure. Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:

What does this past Tuesday’s spring election portend for the fall?

Mordecai Lee:

I’m not sure it portends very much statewide. Afterall, this was the first election, April election since 2014 where there was nothing on a statewide ballot. There was no supreme court. There was no constitutional amendment. And when it happened, when that happened in 2014, only about half a million people voted in the select judge races, court of appeals. So it’s hard to draw any statewide conclusions. But in terms of southeast Wisconsin, I think there’s some pretty strong numbers and I think it’s good news for Democrats and good news for Republicans based on geography, which is sort of what Wisconsin politics is turning into.

Frederica Freyberg:

Could you unpack that a little bit, please?

Mordecai Lee:

Well, the race for mayor, even though it’s nonpartisan here in the city of Milwaukee, was just a blowout for the de facto Democratic candidate, Cavalier Johnson, and his opponent, former alderman Bob Donovan, was pretty openly affiliated with the Republican Party. I think this is almost like what’s happened to state supreme court races. There’s a de facto Democrat and a de facto Republican. It’s almost like there’s a “D” and a “R” after their names because it’s so thinly disguised. When you’ve got such a blowout of an election, more than two to one, that’s just really a landslide. So for Democrats in Milwaukee, it’s an indication that the city is becoming more democratic. I think the most important trivia tidbit is that the old white south side, the European ethnics, blue collar, Reagan Democrats, which really anchored the career of Mayor Henry Maier, who was the mayor for 28 years, that this election on Tuesday, was the last hurrah for the old south side. They’re gone. They’ve retired. They moved to the suburbs. The cops no longer are under a residency requirement. So the old south side is no longer that white conservative stronghold that opposed open housing with Father Groppi. And that Milwaukee is a majority-minority city and Hispanics are as important and whites are fading. When you look at the suburbs–

Frederica Freyberg:

Go ahead.

Mordecai Lee:

When you look at the suburbs, I think it was really great news for Republicans. There was a Court of Appeals race for sort of the collar counties that surround Milwaukee County. Milwaukee County is its own Court of Appeals district. Republicans did very well. Again, there was a race that was thinly disguised as a partisan race. And the Republican won, but de facto Democrat lost but I think what’s so significant is after Trump showed weakness in Waukesha County and Ozaukee County, that sort of disappeared. Everybody went back home. Again, it was a decisive win for Republicans along with the county exec down in Kenosha County. So they did very well.

Frederica Freyberg:

I’m glad you picked up with that because that actually was what I was going to ask you about, that Court of Appeals race. But now, after this election is done, all eyes turn to primary races for U.S. senate and governor in Wisconsin. I just wanted to get your take on this, what you make of Tommy Thompson potentially getting into the race and running down to Mar-A-Lago to meet with Donald Trump?

Mordecai Lee:

I think this will really shake up the race. He loved being governor and he was great and successful as a governor both in terms of governance and in terms of politics, getting elected to four, four-year terms, although he didn’t finish the last one. But he just loved being in charge. I think based on his experience as the interim president of the UW System, it really showed that he’s still got all the juices going and he still really likes to solve problems. In that respect, not a performative Republican, but a problem-solving Republican. And so I think he’s dying to run. Being 80 years old is no longer an issue given the age of former president Trump and the age of President Biden. So I think he’s likely to run. The question is if the Democratic Party has changed out from under his feet in the period since he left to go to George W. Bush’s cabinet. So going to Mar-A-Lago is an indication that Tommy is still on his game. He now understands the importance of Trump in Wisconsin politics.

Frederica Freyberg:

As for Democrats vying for the U.S. Senate in the primary, what breaks through for any of those many candidates?

Mordecai Lee:

I think what’s going on in the Milwaukee TV market, which probably is something some of your viewers don’t get as much access to, is that we’ve been having ads against Ron Johnson since last year. And Ron Johnson has been up on the air in Milwaukee TV stations since he declared at the turn of the year and now very consistently. So what we’re seeing is heavy TV advertising in the Milwaukee area. They’re really fighting it tooth and nail.

Frederica Freyberg:

Mordecai, more to come on all of this as we head into August and then November. Thanks for joining us now. We will talk with you soon.

Mordecai Lee:

Thank you.