Frederica Freyberg:

Scott Walker’s re-election announcement this week comes in the same week other Republicans took a trouncing in elections in Virginia and elsewhere. In tonight’s look ahead, we ask our political panel were those elections a one-off or a trend, a referendum on President Donald Trump? Tonight Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross are here. And thanks for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:

First I wanted to ask you about Foxconn before we get to those questions. Is this a winner or a loser for Scott Walker?

Bill McCoshen:

Too soon to tell. I think they expected it to be an overwhelming winner. It hasn’t turned out to be, at least in the initial polls. Marquette University Law School did a poll in southeast Wisconsin just a couple weeks ago. It’s marginally popular, but people think it’s also a lot of taxpayer dollars that went into it. Outstate, it’s even less popular. So the challenge for the governor and his administration over the course of the next year will be to explain how this benefits the entire state.

Frederica Freyberg:

What do you think, winner or loser for the governor?

Scot Ross:

Oh, loser, and the reason you know is because he didn’t talk about in his announcement. I mean this is a career politician who does the political thing every single time. He knows this is a dog-out state because people out-state want to know why they’re spending $3 billion of tax money to give a bunch of jobs to people who are going to cross the Illinois border. So it’s going to be a real challenge for Governor Walker.

Frederica Freyberg:

And yet, if this promise of 13,000 jobs and all this spin-off employment, not to mention the $10 billion plant itself is kind of tantalizing for people, is bashing as Democrat candidate for governor Dana Wachs is doing ill-advised for that camp?

Scot Ross:

I think absolutely not because when it comes down to it, Scott Walker turned down a ton of jobs with high-speed rail and with the stimulus package he opposed. If that was a disqualifier, Scott Walker wouldn’t be governor right now. Elections are a snapshot in time. People kind of feel okay about the economy. So I think a bunch of jobs which may or may not come is not going to decide the governor’s race.

Bill McCoshen:

People want to see it. I mean the challenge so far is everything’s been ceremonial. There’s been this signing or that signing. There’s another one today down in Racine, the final signing — execution of the contract. The likelihood is this may not even be–the ground likely won’t be broken until late summer, early fall. It’s going to be hard for the governor to show what this is going to be, mean for the future because not much will have been done.

Frederica Freyberg:

Speaking of the governor and hitching his name to something or someone, what do you think this week’s election results in places like Virginia mean going forward? Was this a referendum of Donald Trump?

Scot Ross:

I think absolutely and I think it was a repudiation of it. I think what this showed was when you aspire to people’s base instincts, once in a while, like what happened in 2016 with Trump, you can catch what I would call “white lightning in a bottle” for his racist pandering. And in Virginia, hope won out. As a people, we’re pretty good people. We can transcend these sorts of divisive things. The problem for Scott Walker is now he’s either gotta go either all in for Trump which is so far what’s done or somehow back off and risk alienating the hardcore of his base. It is a real problem for Scott Walker.

Bill McCoshen:

Hard to say. This is 16 out of the last 17 elections, those two states are typically blue. They go against the party that’s in the White House so it trended with how they’ve generally done there. But I’ll say this, I think it’s a warning sign for Republicans because the energy was clearly bigger and higher on the Democratic side. Their turnout was extraordinary. I mean the candidates in Virginia, Ed Gillespie, got more, significantly more votes than the previous candidate, Ken Cuccinelli and still got trounced by nine points. So I think there is a lesson here. I don’t think it was about Donald Trump. I think it’s about Congress’s inaction and inability to get stuff done. If they do not get stuff done, I think Republicans could be in serious trouble in 2018.

Frederica Freyberg:

We asked both Wisconsin political parties, the GOP and the Dems, whether Donald Trump was good or bad for their brand and their candidates. Here’s what they said.

Mark Morgan:

When you look at the coalition that propelled President Trump to a win here in Wisconsin, that coalition, that winning coalition of Republicans in the southeast, small town rural voters, that’s a coalition that Governor Walker put together multiple times before then. So when I look at what a winning coalition is going to be, I think you see the president certainly maintains some favorability amongst those voters. I think those folks elected to see change in Washington. But beyond that what they voted for with President Trump, is they voted for that same type of bold leadership. They wanted change. They wanted to see results. That’s what Governor Walker has delivered and why they voted for him three times in a row.

Martha Laning:

I think it’s really important that the party is talking about what we stand for. That we want an economy that works for everyone, not just those at the top. That we want people who work hard and play by the rules to be able to get ahead. If you work full-time and you’ve put in your years, you should be able to retire with dignity. We believe in those things. But it’s also really important that we’re pointing out that what Donald Trump stands for, the divisiveness and the hate, is not acceptable either. What really makes America great is when we come together and when we work together to build thriving communities. That’s not what Donald Trump is about.

Frederica Freyberg:

What stands out to those comments to me is that neither one of them really want to talk that much about Donald Trump. I was interested to see that the Democratic party didn’t come out first on, you know, how bad they think Donald Trump is and the Republican party executive director also didn’t talk about Donald Trump as much as he talked about Scott Walker.

Scot Ross:

And I think the reason why for the Democrats at least, is because you’re not going to beat Scott Walker by proving he’ll make Wisconsin worse. You’re gonna beat Scott Walker by proving you can make Wisconsin better. Now we know Scott Walker has a ceiling. He’s never been on election day, higher than what? 52%. So he has that ceiling. Can Democrats engage their base to get out to these off-year elections? Now the last five–five of the last six national elections have been wave elections. Scott Walker’s benefited from a couple of those in terms of his turnout. In any campaign, you have four resources: time, treasure, technology and talent. Enthusiasm comes under talent. Right now the enthusiasm is with the Democrats. Is it going to remain? That’s the key. You’re not going to have that enthusiasm continue if you just bash the Republicans.

Bill McCoshen:

I don’t think it’s going to be about Trump. Truthfully, I think this could be a red wall for Republicans in 2018. I mean the Walker machine, I don’t know about the four Ts. I say mom, money, organization and message. Walker has significant advantages in all of those. Let’s start with the organization. He has built the best statewide organization ever on the Republican side, over the course of three elections. Remember he’s already been elected governor three times in the last 7.5 years. So that infrastructure is there. Arguably it helped elect Donald Trump, let him be the first Republican to win here since 1984. On the money side, Walker is the best fundraiser Republicans have ever had. So that won’t be an issue. On the message, what Walker does, he’s incredibly disciplined. He keeps his message tight. He talks about the promises made and the promises kept. He doesn’t go outside, out of his lane at all. I think that’s going to be tough for Democrats in 2018 to try and get him off message and find a wedge issue that will pierce through to voters.

Frederica Freyberg:

And yet the Democrats here in Wisconsin seem positively giddy with those results on the east coast and yet what do we know about their operation compared to what you were just talking about?

Bill McCoshen:

Having Tammy Baldwin on the top of the ticket, that should help, especially with the progressives. In many ways, this will be a base on base election. With her turning out the left, him turning out the right, who can get the middle? Walker’s been able to get the middle. He’s not Tommy Thompson. He doesn’t want to get 60% or 67%. He’s okay with 53%, which is his highest. That’s fine. His voters, they’re not apathetic. They’re rock solid for him. I don’t see — if I sense any apathy out there, it’s more on the Congressional level and those guys — if I'm them, I'm worried. You got to start getting things done in D.C. or there could be big trouble in the Congress and the U.S. Senate.

Scot Ross:

Well, I’d say first with the enthusiasm regarding Congress, Democrats have already marshaled credible challengers in almost every single Republican district here in the state of Wisconsin, including two that are now going to be targeted by the D.C.C.C. out in Washington D.C. But when it comes to Scott Walker, the thing is is he is very disciplined. But he is a divisive candidate. I don’t know if you’ve been on the internet. In Madison, for instance, my feed is nonstop divisive social media ads from Scott Walker. Stop the big labor bosses. Democrats are going to turn the state backwards. Those aren’t messages when you’re asking for an unprecedented third term the divisiveness is not going to work this time. It will get you 47% or 48%, but that last 4% is going to be whether or not Democrats can do this. We have 3.2 million people turn out in a presidential election year and about 2.3 to 2.4 and a non-presidential. If Dems can get that to 2.5, they’re going to win this election.

Frederica Freyberg:

I was going to ask, how important is turnout in 2018?

Bill McCoshen:

Huge. Every time. Particularly in a base on base election. You got to get your people out. The one thing I would say is if it’s 47% or 48%, the thing that will tip them over, voters vote their pocketbook first. We’ve talked about that here on this segment in the past. The economy’s going to be, looks like it will be gangbusters in 2018.

Frederica Freyberg:

Right.

Frederica Freyberg:

So that will play to Walker’s advantage. No question about that.

Scot Ross:

I would just say that the pocketbook issue for people here in the state of Wisconsin are jobs, yes. Wages. Our wages are terrible here. Education, health care, student loan debt. All those things that Scott Walker has done the opposite of what’s going to help the middle class here. A lot of people around the state of Wisconsin who might be unemployed like the 126 people who are losing their jobs in Fond du Lac, for instance, are going to say, “Where’s my job, Scott Walker, when you’re giving a bunch of Illinois workers jobs we’re paying for.”

Frederica Freyberg:

What about the wages issue and maybe the split between southeast Wisconsin and northern Wisconsin?

Bill McCoshen:

If Foxconn comes through as they’re promised to do, with 23,000 jobs, 10,000 direct, 13,000 indirect, it’s going to put pressure on wages all over the state. That’s going to benefit every worker from Kenosha to Superior, my hometown and from Green Bay down to Platteville.

Frederica Freyberg:

As we’ve discussed though, that's not going to be in time for next year’s election.

Bill McCoshen:

It won’t be. But there’s a shortage out there right now. Workers — companies all across– are looking for workers every single day and are having trouble filling those positions. So the more that exists, that phenomena exists, the more wages will go up.

Frederica Freyberg:

We were talking about turnout and kind of the split in Wisconsin and we’ve discussed before this kind of politics of resentment between people maybe in the northern reaches or elsewhere. Those people came out for Donald Trump. And it looks like in Virginia in particular, some of those same people may have come out for the Dems this time. Do you see that happening?

Scot Ross:

I think a lot of stuff — I think a lot of what happened in rural Wisconsin in 2016 was that there weren’t Democrat messages being communicated out there. We had eight years of President Obama. In Ron Kind’s district, he didn’t have a race. So there weren’t TV ads defending what was going on, the good things that were going on in Washington D.C. under the Obama Administration. That was absent. I think the Democrats have a real opportunity. I think the resources will be there. Never going to be able to out-spend the Republicans. You just need enough to win on election day.

Bill McCoshen:

There was some evidence that Trump moved union households over to his ticket in 2016. Walker isn’t going to get those guys, he’s just not, in the state of Wisconsin. So do they stay home? Are they fired up enough to come out and vote for his opponent? It’s all going to come down to what that opponent’s message is against Scott Walker.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. We leave it there. Thank you very much.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Thank you.