Frederica Freyberg:

In a win for Democrats, a split Supreme Court Thursday adopted Governor Tony Evers’ voting maps for Wisconsin legislative and congressional boundaries. The maps adhered to the “least change” approach to the current lines the court required. Justice Brian Hagedorn voted with the three liberals on the court, writing the majority opinion. According to the governor, applying an average of six statewide elections since 2016, his maps would elect 44 Democrats and 55 Republicans to the Assembly, 13 Democrats and 20 Republicans to the Senate, and three Democrats and five Republicans to Congress. That’s compared to the Republican map which could make 64 GOP Assembly seat, 22 in the Senate and 6 in Congress. We break it down now with UW-Madison political scientist Barry Burden. Thanks for being here.

Barry Burden:

My pleasure.

Frederica Freyberg:

So it’s declared a significant victory for the Dems. Would you declare that?

Barry Burden:

Well, I would say it’s the least bad option for the Democrats. Just about any map that would be adopted is going to have an advantage for the Republicans built in, and that’s especially true because the court mandated that they were going to only accept maps that had the minimal amount of change to the existing districts and those were, of course, drawn by Republicans 10 years ago and have worked quite well to lock in Republican majorities. So this is about the best the Democrats could hope for, but it still puts them on the defense.

Frederica Freyberg:

So how similar are these maps to the existing GOP maps then?

Barry Burden:

Well, they’re quite similar and that’s why the Evers’ maps were selected over the other options. There were about a half a dozen maps submitted to the Supreme Court. They could have picked any of them or drawn their own maps and they picked Evers’ as the court said, as Hagedorn’s opinion, said because it beat the others on the criterion of keeping as many people in the same districts as they’re in now.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do the Evers’ maps make districts at all more competitive as a whole?

Barry Burden:

Slightly. I think at the congressional level, there are eight congressional districts, the Evers’ maps make it possible for Democrats to win three or maybe four of the eight districts, whereas I think any of the Republican oriented maps would have had probably a 6-2 margin for the GOP, and it makes the Assembly at least within the realm of possibility of Democrats winning back the majority. They would need a really good election cycle for that to happen because the expectation is they probably have in the low to mid 40s out of the 99 seats, but most of the seats are going to be safe in the Assembly, in the state Senate and at the congressional level.

Frederica Freyberg:

Looking at what’s regarded as one of the most competitive congressional districts, the third, Evers’ maps keep Stevens Point in the district whereas the GOP maps remove it. How significant is that in the third?

Barry Burden:

It’s probably essential to keeping it competitive. Stevens Point is an arm that sticks out from the district if you look at the map. That was intentionally added 10 years ago, in part to creation the district just north of it, which had been Sean Duffy’s district, more Republican. It was sort of a deal that had been worked out. Keeping that arm of the district in it, at least gives Democrats the possibility of holding on even though Ron Kind won’t be the incumbent next time around.

Frederica Freyberg:

So the other thing that Evers’ map does is add a seventh Black majority minority Assembly district. Republican legislative leaders said that “Tony Evers drew racially gerrymandered maps behind closed doors with no public input, and dissenting conservative justices regard the Evers’ maps as unconstitutional and fatally flawed.” How salient are these criticisms?

Barry Burden:

Well, all of the maps that were submitted to the court were drawn in secret somewhere. None of them were done out in the public square. So I’m not sure that’s much of a criticism. But the minority on the court was really incensed that they thought the Evers’ maps violated the Voting Rights Act, violated the Constitution by producing these seven bare majority or close to majority Black Assembly districts. I’m not sure that argument will hold but they seem to be hoping that the losers in this case will take an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and try to challenge the maps on the basis of violating either the VRA or the 14th Amendment, which guarantees equal protection. That would be a real showdown, I think, at the Supreme Court level to think about changing, I think standing interpretations of the VRA to say that drawing on the basis of race and the way that Evers did violates the Constitution.

Frederica Freyberg:

And so would that be expected, that this would go up?

Barry Burden:

It’s very unclear. I don’t know whether the losing plaintiffs in the case will think it’s tantalizing enough to try to bring an appeal. I don’t know the U.S. Supreme Court would take it even if the appeal was sent their way? This is a hot issue, a lot of it is actually settled law but it’s something I think some conservatives are interested in revisiting so this will be a decision that gets made over the coming weeks.

Frederica Freyberg:

Notwithstanding that, we know Republicans still hold a majority in these “least change” maps, but does this have implications in this year’s elections?

Barry Burden:

Well, assuming there are no appeals and the decision holds, we now know what the districts will look like. That sets up now decisions by candidates to decide whether they’re going to run. There are a few incumbents in the state legislature who got paired against one another and will have to decide whether they want to face off in the primary or some of them stand down. I think at the congressional level, the third district that we talked about a moment ago is the most interesting of the eight districts. It’s the only open seat in the state. It’s probably the most balanced of the eight districts and it will get a lot of national attention.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Well, we’ll be watching as well. Barry Burden, thank you.

Barry Burden:

Glad to be with you.

Frederica Freyberg:

Burden also says another scenario is for Republicans to use these maps this year and just redraw new ones if and when a Republican becomes governor in 2023.