Frederica Freyberg:

In tonight’s closer look, unpacking the politics of the State of the Union and looking ahead with capitol consultants managing partner and Republican strategist Bill McCoshen, and Democrat Scot Ross, executive director of One Wisconsin Now. Guys, thanks very much for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:

Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:

So right out of the shoots, I want to ask you both what your reaction is to the White House releasing what I’ll call the Republican Fiza memo. Bill?

Bill McCoshen:

I think they turned it back to Congress to release and it should have been released by the time this airs. I think it’s a good thing. I think the American public needs to know if there’s — either if the fix was in to help Hillary Clinton or to hurt Donald Trump. Neither is right and I think they ought to release the Democratic memo, too. The public needs to know. They have to have confidence in their top cops at Justice and FBI. And right now I'm not sure they do.

Frederica Freyberg:

What about the fact the FBI and Justice are both saying, “Please don’t do that.”

Bill McCoshen:

Of course they are because it’s going to expose a lot of the things that they’ve been doing potentially wrong.

Scot Ross:

This is nonsense. This is about covering Donald Trump’s keister. And Paul Ryan is not only — not just complicit. He is now aiding and abetting the trashing of law enforcement. Every person involved in this is a Republican. Donald Trump got caught. He is afraid of getting exposed as colluding with the Russian government to get his election. And now they are doing a smoke and mirrors, muddy the waters thing which is what Republicans are really good at.

Frederica Freyberg:

So you don’t feel like it’s politicizing the whole investigation?

Bill McCoshen:

I think the whole investigation is political. So, why not put the facts out there for the public to judge one way or the other. Put the Republican memo out, and then follow the same process and put the Democratic memo out. Let the people decide.

Frederica Freyberg:

You’re steaming hot on this.

Scot Ross:

I am steaming hot because this is ridiculous. This is four pages of garbage written by Devin Nunes.

Bill McCoshen:

He’s never read it. You have to have top secret clearance to see it today.

Scot Ross:

Devin Nunes was over at the White House, getting his talking points and getting his direction and going to secret meetings. Now he’s put out a four-page memo saying that the top law enforcement is somehow in the tank for Hillary Clinton. My god, James Comey.

Bill McCoshen:

We know, we know that.

Scot Ross:

My god, people rightfully say that James Comey and what the FBI did in terms of the election are why Donald Trump is in the White House right now.

Bill McCoshen:

Your viewers are smart enough. Let’ em judge for themselves.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Let’s take a listen to something the president said during the State of the Union. He seemed to be putting people who might cross him on notice. Let’s listen.

Donald Trump:

So tonight I call on Congress to empower every cabinet secretary with the authority to reward good workers and to remove federal employees who undermine the public trust or fail the American people.

Frederica Freyberg:

So, who’s he talking about there?

Scot Ross:

I don’t know. I didn’t — I can’t see the video right now but I'm wondering if when he started talking about respect, Paul Ryan may have backed up just a bit in case a lightning bolt struck. You know, what the speech was is our American carnage, the sequel, you know, MS13. This was a ridiculous speech of xenophobia, racism, of non-truth telling and basically laying out the division that exists in America for all to see and he continues to just simply play to 35% of the electorate.

Bill McCoshen:

On your point, he's a businessman. He’s the first true businessman to be president in several decades and this is what happens in the private sector. If you mess up, you’re out. That’s how it should work it the public sector and that’s what he’s speaking to. And my guess is the majority of Americans are with him on that.

Frederica Freyberg:

It sounded kind of menacing, like he might be talking about some of these people in the FBI or the Justice Department or — we don’t know.

Bill McCoshen:

We never really know with Donald Trump. You know, maybe we’ll know in a tweet someday down the road, but I think process-wise, what he’s speaking to, the American people are with him.

Scot Ross:

I’m going to agree with him on one thing and that is he has some sort of experience in business but he’s not a businessman. He’s a brand manager. That’s what the Trump empire was about. It was about the brand.

Bill McCoshen:

He can manage my brand. He’s worth billions of dollars.

Scot Ross:

He brands himself in terms of this 35%.

Frederica Freyberg:

You feel like he gets a bump out of this speech?

Bill McCoshen:

He did. His poll numbers are already up. Morning Consult, Politico put something out today. His favorability is now up to 49, which is the highest it’s been since June of 2017. So he absolutely got a bump. Two different national polls, one by CBS, one by Politico, said more than 70% of the people who watched the State of the Union thought it was really good. So I mean, there’s no question he got a bump out of this. Smart politics.

Frederica Freyberg:

You’re not going to talk about a bump.

Scot Ross:

I don’t necessary think–if there is a bump, it’s not long lasting. It’s probably people who were asked, “Are you ok with the speech being finally over?”

Frederica Freyberg:

So meanwhile, that’s good and may allay some of the concern on the part of Republicans for midterms?

Bill McCoshen:

Yeah, no question about it. The higher his numbers are, the more likely it is they’ll maintain their majorities in both houses. Now, let’s just say the map favors Republicans in the senate anyway. Ten senators who are up this year are in states that Trump won. Six of those by double digits. So, the map favors Republicans to keep the senate. But as it relates to the Congress, there is a relationship between the president’s approval rating and their ability to maintain that house.

Scot Ross:

Yeah, the politics — the map may favor the Republicans but the politics favors the Democrats.

Bill McCoshen:

No way. That’s changed.

Scot Ross:

Right now you’ve got 12 house seats that are open right now the Democrats are targeting. And they are out-fundraising the Republicans 3 to 1 in those 12 house seats all across the country.

Bill McCoshen:

The Republicans have raised more money than ever before, ever before. They will be well funded in the races. The pendulum has swung on policy. The tax cut has been huge so far. And people just saw the first signs of that in their paycheck yesterday and they’ll continue to see it throughout 2018. That benefits Republicans.

Scot Ross:

[inaudible] is clearly with the Republicans and Senator Adam Jarchow to the 10th Senate district. Absolutely 100%. Listen, you can see the politics in the way Scott Walker started to pander to his base in terms of this welfare reform nonsense of trying to pay off voters with a$100 check right before the election. And that he’s basically running a 1994 campaign, touring the state with your pal Tommy Thompson right now.

Bill McCoshen:

I ran that campaign.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to talk about that in a minute, but first I want to get to what the president said about infrastructure spending. Let’s go ahead and take a look at that sound bite as well.

Donald Trump:

Tonight I'm calling on Congress to produce a bill that generates at least $1.5 trillion for the new the infrastructure investment that our country so desperately needs.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now, the thing about this, though, is that the states have to spend money to get money. And now I know that Governor Walker is talking about potentially being ok with a gas tax so that we could get some of this federal money for infrastructure spending? What about that?

Scot Ross:

His first effort on this, Trump’s was not one single penny to actually spend on asphalt to pave a road anywhere in the United States of America. This is smoke and mirrors. And the fact that Scott Walker has made an election year conversion, next we’re going to find out that water’s wet.

Bill McCoshen:

I think the policy’s good. We do need to improve our roads, our bridges, our harbors and our airports. There’s no question about that. I think the politics are tricky. I’m not sure he can get any additional spending through Congress at this point after the tax increase. And to Scott's point, I mean states have to spend potentially up to 70% in match money and Wisconsin isn’t well positioned to get that.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s talk about, as you just were a moment ago, Tommy Thompson and Governor Walker flying around the state touting this welfare reform. Thoughts?

Bill McCoshen:

It worked for Tommy Thompson. It was without question one of the things that helped him win the governorship in 1986 and it continued to be popular, to the point where Bill Clinton signed the federal welfare reform into law ten years later.

Frederica Freyberg:

It’s back.

Scot Ross:

Yeah, it’s definitely back but the fact is that attacking people, the most recent barometer we have of that is the Republicans went all in on attacking Patty Schachtner up in the 10th Senate district campaign about welfare reform, about opposing having people urinate in cups in order to get their public benefits. And she won by 10 points in a seat not held by — not won by Democrats since 1996. And so the politics on this are all wrong but Scott Walker’s going back to that well about dividing people, about pulling out the dog whistle. And I think he’s going to find a real problem this time around.

Frederica Freyberg:

We need to leave it there. Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen, thanks very much.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:

Thanks.