Marisa Wojcik:

Welcome to Noon Wednesday! I’m Marisa Wojcik, multimedia journalist with Here & Now on PBS Wisconsin. Today is February 16. Milwaukee will soon see a new mayor! For the first time in nearly two decades. Of the seven candidates who ran in yesterday’s primary election, acting Mayor Cavalier Chevy Johnson and Alderman Bob Donovan will advance in the general election in April. Joining me to break down the candidate, the issue, and Tuesdays primary results are John Johnson, a research fellow at Marquette Law School and Wisconsin Public Radio reporter Christine Hatfield. Thank you both for being here.

John Johnson:

Thanks for having us.

Christine Hatfield:

Thank you.

Marisa Wojcik:

Christine, I want to start with you. Can you give us an overview of the biggest issues that were in front of the candidates?

Christine Hatfield:

Yes, absolutely. There is a whole gauntlet of them to run which kind of comes with the territory of a city the size of Milwaukee. I mean, there is reckless driving and the causes. There is the increased rates of car thefts in the area, more than 10,000 of them last year. The matter of crime and public safety in general. The city’s relationship with the police, especially when it comes to keeping police around. In another style, you have the future of Milwaukee public schools and its funding. Then there is the city’s pension challenges. What that can mean for budgeting for services as we go down the line. And then for that matter, ways to just bring revenue into the city. Part of that conversation is kind of reliant upon the relationship with state government in Madison, the legislature especially. Then there is the matter of housing affordability. The racial gap and housing ownership, all of those topics are part of making sure that people have a roof over their head. I guess the question at the very root of all of this almost a sort of existential question, especially, after all of the years with the same governor, not the same governor, the same mayor, what makes Milwaukee what it is? How does the mayor help make a city that is safe, healthy and successful? That is really what is at play here in a nutshell.

Marisa Wojcik:

So lots of varying interests and from what I understand, from John that plays out in your data. So John, after last night’s results seeing Johnson and Donovan coming out on top, outperforming even state Senator Taylor and others, what stood out to you about these two candidates that came out on top?

John Johnson:

The most striking thing to me was, how broad Cavalier Johnsons support was. He won 12 out of the city’s 15 districts. He had strong support across his own aldermanic district, and neighbors on the north side which he represents, but also did very well on the east side of Milwaukee and in Bayview areas that were support for former Mayor Tom Barrett. I was also struck by Donovans performance but not how strong it was. He actually did quite a bit worse than he did in 2016. And 2016’s primary, he got a third of the vote. And this time, he got just a little bit over a fifth. So the only reason that Donovan advanced is because the remainder of the electorate, about 35% was evenly divided between state Senator Lena Taylor, Sheriff Lucas and Alderwoman Marina Dimitrijevic . So Donovan is advancing to the second round, yes. But not from a position of strength.

Marisa Wojcik:

And Milwaukee is grappling currently with very historic rates of violence. Christine, how did this topic shape the race? And what were the positions of these top two frontrunners?

Christine Hatfield:

I mean, to some extent, we did talk a little bit about reckless driving. There is the question there, how do you keep the road safe for pedestrians, drivers, all of the people who use those roads one way or another. Things like homicides and murder, theyre no less significant of an issue. There has been 31 homicides in Milwaukee already this year. Compare that to 2021. At this point in the year, there was only 14 homicides so as best as we can tell, the problem really isn’t diminishing. As for what Johnson and Donovan had to say about it all, well, I mean, Johnson has taken full advantage of holding the mayor’s seat in the interim position. He announced a public safety plan, not long after he took that position and a lot of that plan is dependent on education, both for police officers and the public, keeping officers around in the police department, just funding for traffic enforcement and substance abuse prevention programs, that sort of thing. Donovan talks about restoring MPD to former level of man power. There is that matter and then, I guess, you could say, Donovans position is that there is an attitude of lawlessness that has become pervasive in parts of Milwaukee. This is paraphrasing, from the forum that we had here in Milwaukee last week and that there needs to be accountability for crimes committed. So harsher punishment, then working with district attorneys, judges and so on. So I mean, there is some commonalities in how Johnson and Donovan is going about this. But Johnson is taking the addressing the root of the issue approach, I would say that Donovan is taking a tough on crime stance.

Marisa Wojcik:

And Milwaukee is very well-known for its racial segregation and for having some of the highest rates of it in the country. John, you have written about Milwaukees historically polarized electorate. What did you mean by that? And did you see that in Tuesdays primary results?

John Johnson:

That is a great question. So if you don’t mind, going to go back to the last time that Milwaukee had a contested, or open mayoral election in 2004. At that time, there is some parallels to today. At that time, we had Black acting mayor named Marvin Pratt. And he ran against a wide field in the primary. Took first place in the primary. Tom Barrett came second. Tom Barrett defeated Marvin Pratt in the general election. That is one of the most racially polarized election results I have ever personally looked at. If you make just a simple regression model where you use co-efficient for each ward, based on the proportion of racial and ethnic groups there, just those variables alone, explain 98% of Tom Barretts share. It is really quite shocking. After that election, Barrett went on to change and grow his coalition in real ways. His base of support was really in the majority white progressive neighborhoods in the city along the lake as well as his own neighborhood of Washington Heights on the west side. From that base, which covers about a quarter of the city, when he ran against a conservative candidate like Bob Donovan, he would get the support of the majority of both sides of the city as well. When he ran against a Black candidate like Marvin Pratt or Lena Taylor, he would get the support of the conservative white parts of the city which are like Bob Donovan stronghold. So with those sets of coalitions in mind, I was curious to see what this election would result in. And instead we saw something rather new. Cavalier Johnson, who of course, represents the second district on north side of Milwaukee, actually won quite considerable plurality of the vote in those parts of the city that Barrett had his greatest strengths in. The east side of highway or interstate 33 and also the Washington Heights neighborhood on the west side. This was in some ways, one of the less racially polarized elections that we have seen recently in Milwaukee.

Marisa Wojcik:

So also a major debate in not the only city of Milwaukee itself, expanding out something that state lawmakers also debate as well, Milwaukee public schools. So Christine, how did the issues of schools play out? And will we continue to see this come up for both of the candidates in the general election?

Christine Hatfield:

Right, I mean, as you mentioned, it is an issue that sort of transcends the city. One of my colleagues, Ill offer a callout to Maddy, at this very moment, working on a story of state legislature proposal that split up Milwaukee public schools. That was on the minds of the candidates at forum last week. The moderators actually asked all of the candidates at one point, do any of you support that proposal? Not a single one of them raised their hands. Which I think that speaks some to that really divide between the perspective of state government, the legislature for that matter, on this where are the people that are actually in the city, working on these issues here, staying on it. I think that goes back some to the issue of well how do you work with state governance to make sure that one, the schools are getting the funding they need so that teachers can make a living, so that marginalized groups that we don’t really see much in teaching are more equitably represented. So students can get a relevant up to date education that fits in that modern context. Donovan wants to make sure that the private schools aren’t left out of the conversation either. Johnson meanwhile has focused bit more and getting education started in early childhood just to make sure that those foundations are in place from the get go. Of course, you could go on and on and on about this issue. Is it going to come up in the general? I, I don’t see why not? Maybe not as prominent of issue as violence and the like. This is the sort of thing that affects the generations to come. With the legislature setting their sights on breaking up MPS, there is another existential question, how do you deal with that, if you are going to deal with that? Do you reckon with the matter making sure that you are getting the funding you need?

Marisa Wojcik:

Now, John, you have gone back as you just spoke to looking at the voting patterns of elections for Mayor Tom Barrett and how he has won throughout the years. More recently, you also looked at county executive elections and how that might be speaking to what the current moment is. Can you talk a little bit about that?

John Johnson:

The 2020 county executive race was a very interesting one. The general election pitted David Crowley, who is a state Assemblyman against Chris Larson, who is a state Senator from Milwaukee. Both democrats but Larson was, is outspoken progressive and Crowley, well, certainly no conservative, I guess, was perceived as more of the moderate track in that race. David Crowley is Black. Chris Larson is white. Chris Larson won those parts of the city that supported Tom Barrett overwhelmingly. The parts by the lake and what not. Crowley won the majority Black parts of the city but also did surprisingly well in the more conservative parts of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County. Although he lost the far south and southwest side, he did so by less. He got more devout than he did, more progressive east side of the city. Crowley also narrowly won Milwaukee county’s conservative suburb of Franklin while losing the most progressive suburb of Sherwood. And you can see the pattern across the races. That showed, you know, a possibly new coalition in Milwaukee politics that could be successful. But that is not what we saw in this mayoral election, in this primary instead it was the progressive parts of the city and along the lake and the districts on the north side of the city that really joined forces to get Cavalier Johnson this large plurality in the primary.

Marisa Wojcik:

Now Christine, not personally being a resident of Milwaukee, you know, I wouldn’t have guessed something like reckless driving would be a top issue. So why are certain issues getting attention? And as John just spoke to, how is race a factor in the issues that people care about? And overall, will people be turning to these same issues, do you think in the general election?

Christine Hatfield:

Right. I mean, to come to the matter of reckless driving, it is almost become kind of a trope about Milwaukee in this last year or two. I think that part of that has to do with the car thefts and the record numbers of those that we are seeing. And a fair number of that has to do with Kia and Hyundai vehicles. Weird to bring certain makes of cars into this, they had problems with certain car, certain model year are just so easy to break into and take without the key. What you end up with, young people, teenagers, sometimes pre-teens that will break into the cars, take them for a joyride and then leave them stranded on the side of the road. Because these kids don’t really have the support systems that they needed especially in these more marginalized areas of the city. I mean but that is not the only issue at play here. We could go on and on about the car thefts. There is also just the matter of, do people know what they are doing when they are driving? And do, is there equitable access to driver’s education in Milwaukee? Especially with those more marginalized groups as you were speaking to a little bit. I mean, many of the drivers ed programs that exist right now in Milwaukee, are either limited in capacity or just plain unaffordable. Johnson is one of a number of candidates whose called for universal drivers education at MPS. He actually, not long before he took over the interim mayorship, he unveiled a plan to tackle the issue. With increased police enforcement, technology, altered street design and so on. You have Donovan going along with the idea of stepping up enforcement. That form, he talked about the lack of accountability for consequences for people to commit crimes. That point, I think that you are getting into a whole different can of worms in those issues with, well, how does the community connect with the police? And would that risk straining that relationship even more than it already strained? Are these issues going to go away in the general? I think that it would be naive to assume that they would. I mean, these aren’t going away. I mean, in these sorts of campaigns, you see people tending to gravitate towards those issues that hit close to home. And when it comes to things like reckless driving, the city that is so reliant on people using the roads to get around, it affects, if not most people’s lives, then certainly it affects a lot of people’s lives in one way or another.

Marisa Wojcik:

And John, a part of your research has been looking at how the city’s demographics have been changing. And how that has been impacting the election. What have those changing demographics looked like? Is your data showing anything about how that is influencing the issues and how candidates are talking about the issues? And what are you going to be looking for as we head into the general election? In April?

John Johnson:

Yeah, in 2004, when Barrett won his first election, probably a majority of the city’s adults at that time, were still non-Hispanic white. That is not true anymore. Milwaukee is a very diverse city, segregated, yes, but also diverse. If you are going to win citywide race, today, you need a multi-racial coalition to do so. That was not necessarily the case two decades ago. And so it will be a real challenge for Donovan based on his past election results to achieve that. I was doing some research on the last time Donovan ran in 2016 and in that primary, there were, there is Tom Barrett, Bob Donovan and Joe Davis an Alderman from, actually, Cavalier Johnsons current district, the second district. And as I said, Donovan got about a third of the vote, as I recall. Joe Davis got 18%. Joe Davis actually endorsed Bob Donovan after losing the primary. It didn’t appear to make a wit of difference to the voters in his district that supported Barrett overwhelmingly in the general election but I think that speaks to Donovans real struggle to build any kind of appeal outside of his base of support in the 11th and 13th aldermanic support, on the south, southwest side of the city. In fact, he did worse in those districts now than he did six years ago. So it is, it is a real question of if he can find any way to appeal to more voters than he already has.

Marisa Wojcik:

And with so many things changing in the city as Christine spoke to at the start of the program, it is going to look like the identity of the city is going to change with this mayoral change. So we will leave it there. Christine Hatfield of Wisconsin Public Radio and John Johnson of the Marquette Law School. Thank you both so much for the conversation.

John Johnson:

Thank you.

Christine Hatfield:

Thank you.

Marisa Wojcik:

For more from Here & Now, and PBS Wisconsin, you can visit pbswisconsin.org/news. And before we go, Noon Wednesday is going to be taking a brief break. Check this space for updates and we’ll be back soon with more news maker conversations. But until then, I’m Marisa Wojcik, thank you for watching.