Marisa Wojcik:

Welcome to Noon Wednesday, I’m Marisa Wojcik, a multimedia journalist with Here & Now on Wisconsin Public Television. So we’ve been seeing a barrage of political ads leading up to the primaries, which are happening next Tuesday. And, joining me to talk about these ads is Barry Burden. He’s a political science professor and the director of the Elections Research Center at UW Madison. Barry, thanks so much for being here.

Barry Burden:

Thanks for having me.

Marisa Wojcik:

We have lots to talk about. I want to start with Governor Walker. He has spent $1.3 million for four different markets. And all of his ads have been focusing on Foxconn. So let’s take a look at one of those right now.

Scott Walker:

Hi, I’m Scott Walker.

Chris:

And I’m Chris.

Marisa Wojcik:

I’m Calvin.

Marisa Wojcik:

I’m Shawn.

Scott Walker:

Foxconn is the largest economic project in Wisconsin history.

Marisa Wojcik:

So what are the themes that we’re seeing in all of these Foxconn ads from Walker?

Barry Burden:

Well first of all there are a lot of ads. So he’s making sure that he’s on the air and trying to define himself before the Democrats get a chance to define him in a way that’s unfavorable. But what else you see in the ads is that he’s in the field in every one of those ads. He’s at a plant, he’s at a construction zone, in some cases he’s at a school. So he’s not in Madison sitting at a desk, signing bills into laws. Sometimes you see ads like those for incumbents. But he’s showing that he’s out working in the state. And that he hopes his policies are also working for the state.

Marisa Wojcik:

He isn’t necessarily vulnerable in the primaries. So, why is he putting so much money in to airing these ads and why is where they’re airing significant?

Barry Burden:

Well, his campaign has plenty of money. He never has trouble raising funds for the campaign. So he can do it. So why not? I think there’s also a concern for an incumbent that there are eight Democrats running against him. And all of them have been firing their criticism at him for now months. And so to be subject to that without fighting back would really put him in a difficult position after the primary to turn around and run a general election campaign in just few months. So I think he’s trying to build his own counter narrative about who he is and what he’s done for the state. Foxconn is one of the bigger elements of his latest term. It’s a signature piece of his, one of his accomplishments. But it’s controversial. And so trying to sell voters on the upside of that plan and how it’s going to work, not just in Southeast Wisconsin, but in other parts of the state, where some of these ads are more targeted to emphasize that jobs are coming there and there’ll be benefits statewide.

Marisa Wojcik:

So, one of his Democratic challengers, who was leading him in the NBC News Marist Poll, is State Superintendent Tony Evers. Let’s take a peek at one of his ads.

Tony Evers:

To beat Scott Walker, we need a stronger vision for our future. Instead of investing a billion dollars and handouts to companies like Foxconn, I’m going to invest in our kids and our workers.

Marisa Wojcik:

He specifically calls out Walker and Foxconn in this ad and Walker is calling himself the Education Governor. And Walker never mentions a Dem challenger specifically in his ads. Is there an interplay happening between the two candidates?

Barry Burden:

Yeah, these two individuals have been interacting for a while, because they’ve both been in state government. One as governor, one as superintendent of schools. So they’ve been tussling over education and other issues for a while. If Evers ends up being the nominee, those will be top issues. Education probably number one. Foxconn right behind it. You know, Walker is trying to define himself in the ads and introduce himself and promote his accomplishments and what he thinks is coming down the road. But these Democrats have to make a case that Walker needs to be replaced. And so all of them have had pretty hard hitting criticism about Walker’s record and for Evers it’s mostly about his performance with the schools, and about job creation.

Marisa Wojcik:

Another Democratic challenger Kelda Roys, has taken a little bit of a different approach. And she has had the most money of the Democrats spent on airtime. Let’s take a peek at hers.

Kelda Roys:

Yeah, and I start to tell her you know Bisphenol A is a neurotoxin, she said I know, I know, I know. Our daughter’s had some problems. And the doctor said that it’s because she was exposed to BPA.

Marisa Wojcik:

So this ad has received national attention. She’s breastfeeding in it. Is it effective to grab people’s attention like this?

Barry Burden:

I think it was helpful for her campaign. This is a big field. At the time there were still nine or ten Democrats actively running. And they’re trying to break themselves out from the pack and distinguish themselves. This ad got her attention. Nationally, I think it helped her fundraise in the state and outside the state. Sort of launched her into the upper tier of Democratic candidates that people are paying attention to. I think has really put her in a place to be competitive in the primary.

Marisa Wojcik:

Was it effective for her to do that earlier on? Because this came out a little while ago as opposed to some of the other ads that are just coming out couple weeks before.

Barry Burden:

Yeah we’re just seeing ads now from most of the candidates. This would’ve been one of the early spots. I think it aired a little bit on television, but its main payoff was what it circulated on social media. And it got free news coverage. I think the story the campaign told is that this is an impromptu event that happened. They happened to catch the breastfeeding on camera, decided to keep it in the spot, and just let it flow. And it really got her a lot of attention in a way that was not expensive, at a time when her campaign didn’t have as much money as it does now.

Marisa Wojcik:

All of the Dems are kind of fighting for dollars leading up to the primaries. Was that effective for any of the other candidates to use social media and web only delivery systems? Or is broadcast really where it is?

Barry Burden:

Broadcast is going to be the most bang for your buck at the end of the day. There’s still a huge swath of people who watch local television, who are going to be exposed to the ads. Campaigns can’t ignore social media and digital advertising, so they’re going to spend money and time on that as well. It just ends up being a multifaceted campaign. But in the end I think if you want to be a serious candidate statewide, you’ve got to be on television, and that costs money.

Marisa Wojcik:

Another candidate, but in the US Senate race, Republican Leah Vukmir has also kind of gone for the attention grabbing side of things. Let’s take a quick look at hers.

Leah Vukmir:

Ever have someone threaten your life for what you believe in? I have. When Scott Walker and I beat the union bosses, cut billions in taxes, and defunded Planned Parenthood, the left couldn’t take it.

Marisa Wojcik:

Vukmir talks about her life being threatened. Working with Walker to beat the union bosses, cut taxes, defund Planned Parenthood, all within a matter of seconds, and what else are we kind of seeing in this ad and what is it telling us about her?

Barry Burden:

There’s a lot going on in that ad and I think it’s really effective. You feel as a viewer as though you’re walking through her home. And she’s talking to you from the other room. You arrive in her dining room and there’s a gun on the table. So I think she reminds voters very quickly that she’s been with Scott Walker from the beginning. They’re allies in the fights that have been happening in the state since 2011. And that’s a way to contrast with her opponent, Kevin Nicholson, who is relatively new to the scene. New to the Republican Party. And then to emphasize her alliance with guns groups like the NRA, which has backed her, that she has persevered. She’s a tough candidate and she’s had death threats and other kinds of things. Just a lot of really helpful messages there.

Marisa Wojcik:

Nicholson is not only, or Vukmir is only trying to align herself with Walker, but with Donald Trump and her opponent Kevin Nicholson is trying to do that as well. Is that a risky move?

Barry Burden:

I don’t know if it’s risky, but I think both of those candidates feel compelled to cozy up to the Trump constituency. That has now become a driving force in the Republican Party. Even though Trump lost the presidential primary here in Wisconsin back in 2016, things have changed and those voters are activated, they care a lot, they’re likely to participate in the primary next week. And so both of them, even on issues that are more controversial in Wisconsin, like tariffs and immigration have really taken a line that’s pretty close to Trump and pretty close to one another.

Marisa Wojcik:

But will that make a difference come the general election? The aligning themselves with Trump?

Barry Burden:

The pivot I think will be a challenge. Probably more for the Republicans than for the Democrats. Because they’ve taken, Nicholson and Vukmir have taken a harder line, little more aggressively conservative set of positions. They will now have, whoever wins that nomination, a short time to turn around and run a general election that needs to appeal to the average voter on the street who may not be Republican or may not be a fan of Donald Trump.

Marisa Wojcik:

Kevin Nicholson has had a more liberal past and he’s not trying to hide it. But he is spending a lot of time explaining how and why he’s a conservative, and he does that in one of his ads here.

Kevin Nicholson:

Every step of this taught me that you have to deal with the world as it is, if you want to provide meaningful solutions to people. In other words, it may be more conservative.

Marisa Wojcik:

This messaging must be effective, because him and Vukmir have been neck and neck.

Barry Burden:

Yeah that’s right and he’s such a newcomer to the scene, that’s a little surprising. But he has a narrative that’s compelling in a lot of ways. He’s a Marine that often works well to have a military background on the campaign trail. He has gone through this conversion from being a Democrat to being a conservative. He makes analogies to Ronald Reagan. Another Republican who followed that path. And he’s an outsider, and I think that’s true. He’s not served in state government the way Vukmir has and so that’s going to end up being a key distinction between the two candidates that I think they will continue to argue about over the next week.

Marisa Wojcik:

Both of these candidates are hoping to come up against Tammy Baldwin when it comes to the general election. This race has been one of the most expensive US Senate races, and she started putting out ads quite a while ago, pretty early on. Let’s see one of them.

Tammy Baldwin:

My ‘Buy America’ legislation requires government infrastructure projects to use 100% American iron and steel. Because it’s time America buys what Wisconsin makes.

Marisa Wojcik:

So what’s her strategy been?

Barry Burden:

Well a little like Scott Walker. She’s the incumbent, has no primary opponent, is raising lots of money, and so is trying to define herself ahead of the primary rather than getting bashed by her opponents and then having to do that after the primary is over. Here she’s found an issue that works for her at something she’s been active on. But also lets her build a bridge to the Trump voters and maybe Independents in the state, emphasizing Wisconsin jobs, buying American products, exports that are so important to the state’s economy. And it’s a place where she also feels like there’s a wedge to be driven between Republicans. Nicholson and Vukmir don’t have positions that are as popular or that are the same as Trump’s. And so it lets her get a little leverage in a space that might otherwise be hard to get into.

Marisa Wojcik:

Of the pre-primary ads that we’ve seen so far, is there anything about the collection of them that stood out to you?

Barry Burden:

Well, a lot of them are still biographical. Introducing themselves. There’s an ad for Mahlon Mitchell that we didn’t look at where he’s really telling people his story. We saw the Kevin Nicholson ad, he’s telling the story about who he is. And I think you have to do that at this point because there are so many Wisconsin voters who aren’t yet tuned in to the campaign, don’t know who these candidates are, or maybe know something about them but haven’t made an affirmed decision. The primary is looming. It’s just days away, and so there’s a real pressure to try to warm yourself up to voters and make a compelling case why you’re the person who should be in office.

Marisa Wojcik:

Have attack ads thus far been a major player in the whole collection of ads that we’ve seen?

Barry Burden:

Yes and no. So on the Republican side, there have been some criticisms launched back and forth between Nicholson and Vukmir. About Nicholson’s record in the private sector, whether he was a Democrat or a Republican in the recent past, about what Vukmir has done in office. That’s likely to continue right through primary day. On the Democratic side I don’t think we’ve seen those kinds of skirmishes in the ads. It’s a big field so it’s a different dynamic that’s going on than just between the two candidates on the Republican side. But there have been lots of negative things said about Scott Walker on those ads. And that makes some sense. They’re all vying to get the nomination to take on Walker. So they need to convince democratic voters, I’m the person who can do that job in November.

Marisa Wojcik:

Are we going to get a little bit of a break after the primaries when it comes to ads or are we going to ramp right back up?

Barry Burden:

I think there’ll be a small break. And then it has to ramp up quickly. The election is in November. That’s just three months away. Early voting will start in mid-October. There’ll be voter registration drives in advance of that. So there isn’t a lot of time for campaigns to sit and wait. In fact on both sides, there are already organizations in place to help whoever the nominee is. For the Republicans on the Senate race, for Democrats in the Governor’s race, to have an organization and some money ready to roll to regroup the party and aim at their opponent in the general election.

Marisa Wojcik:

All right, Barry, thanks so much for joining us.

Barry Burden:

Yeah I was glad to be here.

Marisa Wojcik:

If you want to know more about the candidates, about the election, and be ready for next Tuesday, go to WisconsinWote.org. And for more on Here & Now coverage and Wisconsin Public Television, visit wpt.org and thanks so much for joining us on Noon Wednesday.