Frederica Freyberg:

New statewide poll numbers were released the same week as President Trump’s visit to the badger state, numbers that show, for the moment, the mixed view of the incumbent and his policies. In tonight’s closer look, we go over the results of the new Marquette Law School Poll with Poll Director Charles Franklin. Thanks a lot for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

In our first poll question that we chose, approval of President Trump’s handling of foreign policy in the wake of the military action between Iran and the U.S. 44% approve, 53% disapprove, you found. How much does this disapproval, do you suppose, transfer to the voting booth?

Charles Franklin:

Well, we’ll see. This — foreign policy is his weakest area of evaluation, whereas the economy is his strongest. We didn’t see any bump in the foreign policy views as a result of the military exchange with Iran. We were completely in the field after that occurred. But his approval on foreign policy was exactly the same as two months ago. It was one point higher than it was a month ago. So over those three polls, you just don’t see any change at all. Foreign policy is one of those things that in an emergency can become a really important issue for the public. But for most of the time, it’s a secondary consideration.

Frederica Freyberg:

Speaking of foreign policy, our next slide shows whether or not your respondents thought that President Trump did something wrong in dealing with Ukraine. 40% said they did believe that. 37% believed they did not. There’s polarity in these numbers that seems to kind of match the electorate.

Charles Franklin:

And, again, the very stable results on this. It’s been essentially 40/37 for four months. The 37 has hardly budged. The 40 was as high as 42. Not very much difference. The one thing that is different is some people say he did something wrong but it wasn’t seriously wrong. And that number has edged up just a little bit. I think that’s folks going from don’t know what he did there to saying, yeah, but it’s not that big a deal. Bottom line, though, is the balance is not changed.

Frederica Freyberg:

So what does any of that say about voters’ interest, do you suppose, in removing the president for his actions?

Charles Franklin:

Really closely divided again. Now that the House has actually voted for impeachment, and of course the Senate trial is beginning to get underway, we asked should the Senate convict and remove him from office or should they exonerate him. 44%, convict and remove. 49%, exonerate. So a five-point gap. Before the House voted, we had about 40% who said he should be impeached and removed. A different question. So maybe support for removal is up a little bit, but because we’ve worded the question differently now that the House has already voted, it’s not exactly comparable.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s take a look at the Democratic candidates running for president. Top four Democratic presidential primary picks: Joe Biden, 23%; Bernie Sanders, 19%; Pete Buttigieg, 15%, Warren, 14%. Any surprises here?

Charles Franklin:

No. The top four have been the top four for the last five months, four months, at least. The top three here are exactly the same percentages they had before Christmas. I think it’s like people went away for the holidays and didn’t really think about politics. Elizabeth Warren is down two points from where she was last time, so she was in third place, now in fourth, but one point difference. There’s no meaningful change there. She slipped just a little bit in national polling. I think the big story here is 60% still say they might change their mind of Democratic primary voters. That’s a little less than the 65% we had a month ago. So maybe people are firming up their views a little bit. But the real action is going to come after Iowa does their first vote in the caucus in about little over two weeks and when New Hampshire votes. By the time we talk to people in February, this race will be a lot more clear about what actual voters are saying in the early events.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s take a look at the general election match-ups. You show Joe Biden with 49% to Trump 45%. Bernie Sanders 47% – Trump 46%. Elizabeth Warren 45% – Trump 48%. Pete Buttigieg 44% and Trump 46%. All of these numbers are within the margin of error, yet Biden consistently on top.

Charles Franklin:

Biden has been consistently running best against Trump in polling since October, really since August, really. But the degree to which he does well has varied. We’ve seen Trump a little bit ahead of Biden, about four months ago, but Biden has steadily improved over the last four polls. Bernie Sanders has improved a bit. The others have been a little bit more mixed, mostly just bouncing around. I think the real story is it’s a battleground state. These are all, as you say, inside the margin of error. There’s been maybe a little bit of growth in support for Biden and for Sanders, either stability or maybe slight shrinkage for Buttigieg and Warren.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s jump ahead to Governor Evers’ job performance. 51% approve, 40% disapprove. How do these numbers stack up for a governor rounding out his first year?

Charles Franklin:

Pretty decent. The 51 is above 50%, but not a lot. But the net approval of plus 11 points is pretty good. If you want to contrast him with Governor Walker, Governor Walker was usually between 48% and 50% or 51%. Rarely over 50%, actually. But Walker had a higher percentage that disapproved through much of his first term. Evers has benefited a bit by having disapproval in the 30s to low 40s as we see this time, a net plus 11.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Charles Franklin, thanks very much for your work.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.