Here & Now

Expert Breaks Down Surprise Special Election

Zac Schultz:

The results of the 10th Senate election received national headlines. Joining us now to talk about the implications of this race is Michael Wagner, Professor of Journalism at UW-Madison. Thanks for your time today.

Michael Wagner:

My pleasure.

Zac Schultz:

It’s always dangerous to read too much into low turnout special elections, but that hasn’t stopped both the Democratic Party and Governor Walker from giving immediate reactions.

Michael Wagner:

That’s right. Usually it’s dangerous as you say, to say, Okay, we had one special election. That means whatever happened in that is going to happen in an election that takes place 10 or 11 months later with way more candidates and way more entrenched partisan areas where the political battle is more conventional. It’s dangerous to look too far ahead. On the other hand, of the 70 or so special elections around the country, Democrats have improved their position in about 74% of those, an average of 12 points or so per race. They haven’t won all of these. In those races, about 34 flipped from Republican to Democrat. Four flipped the other way from Democrat to Republican. But the Democrats have certainly had results that make a wave election and talk of a wave election reasonable. Whether that will be as large as this 12 percent advantage they’re enjoying in the special elections I think is a little less likely but it’s certainly the case that Republicans ought to be worried as evidenced by the governor’s behavior on Twitter right after the special one here in Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz:

The theme for most of those races is that the GOP is losing educated women, college-educated people in the suburbs. That’s what happened in St. Croix County. In Wisconsin, those voters are in Waukesha County, suburban Milwaukee County. Those are hot bed Republican areas. Could we see that same trend hold there?

Michael Wagner:

It’s certainly possible. In St. Croix County, there was an 11-point win for Schachtner. But Sheila Harsdorf won that by 30 in 2016. It’s sort of amazing to see that kind of shift happen so quickly. So in areas that have a campus community or suburban community, especially — and communities where women are maybe more likely to turn out to vote as well, those are communities where there could be big changes. So the ones you outlined are areas where the Republicans need to think about battening down the hatches in the elections coming up in November.

Zac Schultz:

Republicans have had an ironclad lock on the legislature for seven years now. And especially with the way the maps are in their favor. Is it possible that a wave could overtake some of the electoral possibilities there?

Michael Wagner:

I think in the state Senate it’s more of a possibility than in the state Assembly. The state Senate got a little bit more narrow. Just a few seats now divide the majority from the minority there. If the Supreme Court redistricting case in Wisconsin comes back and it forces a redrawing of districts, then a wave for Democrats becomes much more likely. If the Supreme Court comes back, rules in favor of the Democrats but says you don’t have to redraw the districts, then we should expect a really competitive election. And if the case comes back in favor of the Republicans, it’s a little bit more difficult for Democrats but the political environment is better for them than it typically has been in Wisconsin in state elections in recent years.

Zac Schultz:

Scott Walker is running on one map and that’s the whole state so he doesn’t worry about any changes there. He’s had a lot of policies that have come out in a flurry in the last few weeks. Now he’s in favor of reforming Lincoln Hills and juvenile justice. And the welfare reform special session. Democrats are saying this is just him throwing anything against the wall to make it look like he’s doing good work. Republicans say, no, this is responsible government in action.

Michael Wagner:

That's the crux of the debate. The governor’s job is to govern and to make decisions about issues of importance so that’s what he’s doing from his perspective. Democrats as you say are making the argument that this is too little too late or it’s a decision that’s electorally calculated in some way or another. But that will be something that the governor will debate against whoever his opponent is once they have a general election. Depending upon which side of the fence you sit on at home, you’re believing one of those stories over the other.

Zac Schultz:

Meanwhile, in Washington we’ve got the potential for a federal shutdown. What could that mean in Wisconsin especially since Paul Ryan is from here, he’s a key player in this whole thing?

Michael Wagner:

From Speaker Ryan’s point of view, the House passed legislation to keep the government open. From his point of view the House did its job and it’s up to the Senate to do theirs. Now, Ryan will say if things don’t go well in the Senate it’s because of senate Democrats, but of course Republicans have a majority in the House, Senate and the White House. Government shutdowns in a unified government are not common place in American politics. It’s a more difficult argument for Republicans to make to say we’re in charge of everything but we couldn’t keep the lights on.

Zac Schultz:

Michael Wagner, thanks for your time today.

Michael Wagner:

My pleasure.