Here & Now

McCoshen & Ross on Wisconsin's 2026 Governor's Race Forecast

Frederica Freyberg:
With Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ announcement that he will not run for a third term, the November 2026 election for governor is wide open, and already candidates are lining up. On the Republican side, Whitefish Bay businessman Bill Berrien and Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann have entered the race. Democratic Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez is also formally declared. Now, there are a whole lot more names potentially throwing their hat in the ring. For more on this, we turn to our political panelists, Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross. Nice to see you both again.

Bill McCoshen:
Great to be with you.

Scot Ross:
Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:
Bill, what kind of opportunity is this for Republicans?

Bill McCoshen:
It’s pretty rare. It’s the second time in my 60 years on this earth where we’ve had an open gubernatorial seat. 2010 was the last time. Scott Walker beat Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. So the fact that it’s an open seat is an opportunity for Republicans to actually win here. Both of the national prognosticators, whether it’s the Cook Political Report or Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, moved this race from “lean Democrat” as soon as Tony Evers made his announcement to “toss-up.” So it’s an opportunity for the Republicans to potentially take back the governorship in 2026 here in the state of Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Scot, as to that toss-up kind of status, how would policymaking change if, in fact, a Republican were to win?

Scot Ross:
Well, I mean, obviously, if the Republican Party, which is wholly controlled by Donald Trump, were to win the gubernatorial election and Democrats not pick up either of the chambers, it would be the most radical, extreme, partisan handout to special interests and corporate and the wealthy that we’ve ever seen in the history of Wisconsin. But I think that you have to look beyond, you know, the sort of toss-up numbers when it comes to the Cooke. Yeah, if you look at it on face, Wisconsin, you know, goes back and forth. But if you look at the real numbers and where the Republican Party is right now, you know, if you’re not Donald Trump, the party has — Wisconsin voters have rejected you in statewide elections, election after election after election. And we — I think we’ve only had two of any consequence that have gone Republican in the last, like, 15 years. Ron Johnson, of course, who got in there because, you know, the DDDC abandoned Mandela Barnes and he was outspent by $26 million in racist third-party ads. And, and the Supreme Court race where they just, you know, they — where Democrats didn’t quite, hadn’t quite figured out how to lock up those races yet. Now it’s a completely different universe. And the Republican Party, with Donald Trump in full control of the government, isn’t getting more open for — isn’t getting more accommodating for swing voters.

Frederica Freyberg:
Bill, as to the Washington influence, 7th Congressional District Republican Tom Tiffany has been talking about running for a long time. What’s he waiting for?

Bill McCoshen:
He says he’s going to make a decision sometime around Labor Day. I hope he does it sooner than that. There are several Congresspeople in the House now that are running for governor in different states. Byron Donalds being at the top of the list in Florida. I think the president is a little concerned about that because the margin – the House, the GOP majority in the House, is so slim to begin with. So I don’t know if Tom Tiffany is going to get in. If — he’s got a lot of strong suits, for sure, but probably his weakest area is fundraising. He’s got $125,000 cash on hand, which today and Scot would agree, that’s a good Assembly race. That’s not a gubernatorial race. So fundraising is his biggest shortcoming. We’ll see if he gets in. At the end of the day, where Scot and I actually do agree, Donald Trump’s going to pick the winner of this primary, whoever he endorses in this primary will win the race for sure on our side.

Frederica Freyberg:
Who else are Republicans looking at, Bill? I mean, there’s, there is a long list of people out there.

Bill McCoshen:
Well, other names that are being bandied about are State Senator Mary Felzkowski, who comes from roughly the same geography as Tom Tiffany. She represents the 12th Senate District up north. If — she won’t get in if Tiffany does get in. But if Tiffany doesn’t get in, I would expect to see her join the race. You might remember she voted against the state budget. She’s the first Senate president to ever vote against a state budget. Eric Hovde’s name still gets talked about, and I think there’s a player to be named later. Again, because it’s an open seat, it’s a real opportunity. So I think there’s probably somebody on our side that people aren’t talking about yet who could get in this race. Remember, we got 375 days between now and the August 11, 2026 primary.

Scot Ross:
I’m sorry. I just want to say, like, I think the reason, you know, part of the part of the challenge the Republicans have, in contrast to the Democrats, is that their two Republicans have no experience. I mean, you know, you know, God bless Washington County, but it’s not even one of the top ten largest counties in Wisconsin. Whereas on the Democratic side, there is a very long list of people with credentials who have delivered for the people of Wisconsin, starting with the lieutenant governor, you know, continuing with the attorney general who’s gotten $750 million back from opioid settlement. Something that the previous Republican administration and previous Republican attorney general refused to allow us to get. You’ve got the county executive in the state’s largest county, David Crowley. You’ve got State Senator Kelda Roys, who’s, you know, who’s on the Joint Finance Committee and who’s run a couple times before. You know, there’s a long list of people with real credentials about doing the things that Wisconsinites want.

Bill McCoshen:
The one Scot didn’t mention was Ben Wikler, former party chairman. Nobody has raised more money than Ben Wikler. He is the best fundraiser on their side or our side. So if he decides to get in, he’ll be formidable.

Frederica Freyberg:
What do you say to that, Scot?

Scot Ross:
Oh, absolutely. Yes. I mean, Ben’s a great guy who’s traveled around the state doing the rubber chicken circuit, you know, for years. I mean, it’s a reason why a lot of us thought in 2022 that Rebecca Kleefisch was going to be the nominee for the Republicans, but the Republicans decided they don’t want to have a woman at the top of the ticket. So they went with an out of state businessman who lost.

Frederica Freyberg:
Scot, as to the toss-up status of the governor’s race, how much confidence, though, does the most recent ten-point victory of Justice, Susan Crawford, give Dems?

Scot Ross:
Well, they’re two different races, but it also shows that Democrats are able — have been able to mobilize their voters in a way that Republicans simply have not been able to do for a very, very long time. Again, they’ve — they’ve won a couple statewide elections. But the margins, percentage wise and number wise, are so much more narrow than the blowouts that the Democrats have been able to do, because, again, they’re talking about the things that people want. They want to make sure that people are protected. They want to make sure that abortion rights are protected and restored in some cases. You know, they want to make sure that when you go into court that you have your day in court and it’s not balanced towards the rich. That’s completely different to what the agenda of the, of the Republicans are, most embodied by the fact that, you know, we’ve got this big bad bill, which is now going to bankrupt, you know, the country. You know, kicked 270,000 Wisconsinites off of their health care, you know, snatch SNAP benefits, you know, literally take the food out of out of babies and children. That’s the agenda of the Republicans. And Democrats will continue to run on that and contrast both with what we’re trying to do.

Frederica Freyberg:
I wanted to just jump to the next Supreme Court election and have you described the stakes of that?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, we have Rebecca Bradley, who hasn’t decided whether she’s going to seek reelection or not. On her most recent finance report, she hadn’t raised any money. My advice to her is, if you’re not going to run, get out and give people time to raise money. I think one of the dynamics that — there’s a relationship between the two races. I don’t think the Supreme Court race is going to be as hotly contested as the last two were. I don’t think it will be a $100 million race because it isn’t for the majority. I think the gubernatorial race, now that it’s an open seat, will be the political Super Bowl in Wisconsin in 2026.

Frederica Freyberg:
Scot, we know that Appeals Court Judge Chris Taylor is running for Supreme Court. How formidable is she?

Scot Ross:
I think she’s an incredibly formidable candidate and has built her career on protecting the rights of people in Wisconsin. You know, whether it is for living with dignity or abortion rights or whatever, you know, just that’s the — that’s the — that is the profile that she has, the record that she has and especially as a judge. And you know, that contrast, again, with Rebecca Bradley, who’s one of the most divisive, one of the most noxious elected officials that we’ve had in the history of the state of Wisconsin. And I think, you know, for her, what’s — you know, the problem is, if she’s waiting for a federal judgeship, like, what’s the incentive to taking out the incumbent from a judicial race when, by and large, over decades and Bill will agree with this, the incumbent wins. Almost used to be unheard of…

Bill McCoshen:
Almost 100%.

Scot Ross:
…that a judicial candidate wouldn’t win. Yeah.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. We need to leave it there. But really nice to see you both again. We’ll have you on more now that we’re heating up into this next election cycle. Thank you.

Bill McCoshen:
Thanks.

Scot Ross:
Great to be with you.