Here & Now

McCoshen & Ross on the 2024 Election Season in Wisconsin

Frederica Freyberg:
And then there were two candidates left to go up against Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary, as Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis debated this week and Trump held his own town hall. For some 2024 election season predictions, we turn to our political panel, Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross. Thanks for being here, both.

Scot Ross:
Great to be here.

Bill McCoshen:
Thank you for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:
Bill, I’m going to start with you and ask about Donald Trump. He continues to dominate. What is that allure on the part of Donald Trump even as he faces so many criminal charges?

Bill McCoshen:
Honestly, I think the criminal charges have helped him with his own base. Over the course of 2023, he got stronger, not weaker. Twelve months ago, Ron DeSantis was within striking distance of him and today, Trump is up by 20 or 30 points, depending on the poll you’re looking at. So what I’m looking for on Monday night, Fred, is expectations. So Trump is up on the Des Moines Register poll by over 20 points. He released his own poll this week that has him up by 30. I’m not sure I would have done that if I were him because if he comes in less than that, he doesn’t meet expectations. DeSantis has to win Iowa to exceed expectations. Coming in a close second is okay, but it’s tough to figure out the chess board for him, what his next move is after that. For Haley to get momentum out of Iowa, if she beats DeSantis and takes second, all of a sudden, she’s got momentum into a state that she might potentially win, which is New Hampshire.

Frederica Freyberg:
Scot, what do you think Donald Trump’s allure is?

Scot Ross:
I think he is an unstoppable force inside of the Republican Party. Every poll he’s been up. At least in the state of Wisconsin amongst Republican voters for the last — I don’t know, since last September, he’s up 50% over all the challengers and so I think — what it is, you know he is holding the party hostage. They have, for the most part, readily accepted that. Stockholm syndrome. That can win him a primary, but it ain’t going to win him in November because Democrats and independents have rejected him time and time again, particularly in the battleground state of Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:
Do you think, Bill, that Donald Trump will carry Wisconsin in the primary?

Bill McCoshen:
It’s hard to say. He didn’t win the primary here in ’16. Ted Cruz did. He did win the general here in ’16 but then he lost here in ’20. I don’t know that he’s done enough in the suburban areas to bring suburban women back to his coalition. There’s work to be done. Part of that effort might be who he picks as his running mate if he’s ultimately the nominee. If it’s still a competitive race when it gets to Wisconsin, my money would be on his opponent.

Frederica Freyberg:
Scot, do you feel as though younger dems are disenchanted with Joe Biden?

Scot Ross:
Absolutely not because they know what’s happened as a result of Trump and the Republicans having charge of government. Abortion rights are gone. There’s an attack over and over again on LGBTQ people. President Biden is the only president who has tried to really do something about student loan debt. They also appreciate the fact that they have access to healthcare as a result of Joe Biden. So, no, I don’t think there’s any sort of — I don’t think — the alternative is so far worse and I think that students are smart enough to know that and I think in particular we’re going to see that, for instance, in the third c.d. where they’ve got six four-year UW campuses, a bunch of two-year campuses. I think that’s going to be the thing that takes not only Derrick Van Orden down, but also Donald Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:
Where do you think, Bill, young voters stand between Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

Bill McCoshen:
I think the war in Israel is dividing them, right? You’ve got a lot of pro-Palestinian voters who would normally be in the Democratic coalition who are showing up at Tammy Baldwin events. They’re showing up at other Democratic senators’ events and they’re showing up at Joe Biden events. That’s going to be problematic for him. I’m not sure there will be as much energy with young voters in November of this year as there has been in at least last November’s election. We’ll see, but they’re disenfranchised with where this administration is heading, which could be good news for Republicans if we have the right message to attract them.

Frederica Freyberg:
Scot, is Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin unbeatable?

Scot Ross:
Wow. Well, she has been so far, that’s for sure, and there isn’t a real challenger to her yet. It’s because of her record. It’s her record of accomplishments, bipartisan agreements on things like, you know, manufacturing, buy in America. She is a leader on reproductive freedoms, which is going to be huge for her in a Senate race, especially when she’s paired against possibly the most antichoice candidate that we’ll ever see if we get Hovde or David Clark. But again, I think Republicans are the ones who are in disarray here because they don’t have anybody to go up against a sitting senator.

Frederica Freyberg:
Do you think that Tammy Baldwin is formidable, Bill?

Bill McCoshen:
No question she’s formidable. She’s tough. Anyone who thinks otherwise on our side isn’t looking at her electoral history. She works hard, she does phenomenal on constituent services. Where I think her greatest — I think she has two vulnerabilities. Number one is Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. Can she run ahead of Joe Biden if she needs to? Maybe. Ron Johnson did run ahead of Trump here in ’16, but it’s pretty rare for a U.S. Senate candidate to run ahead of the top of their ticket. She may need to do that in order to win. Secondly, I think the border is a real issue for Democrats writ large. If they don’t solve that between now and October, for example, I think that’s going to be a strong vulnerability for her.

Frederica Freyberg:
What about that issue of immigration?

Scot Ross:
I think that it is a red herring that’s designed to divide people, white people against people of color. It’s something the Republicans have done for decades and decades. While I do definitely agree with what Bill said, Senator Baldwin has been at the top of the ticket before. She won by 11 points in 2018 and Governor Evers had won by just one point, so I think she has an entire possibility of being the lead of the ticket. The problem is that — sorry, the thing we have to do is remember what happened in 2016. Hillary Clinton’s campaign gave up in Wisconsin. They gave up on Michigan. They did a half-hearted job in Pennsylvania. That ain’t ever going to happen again. Democrats are going to have the resources and I think it will be a good Democratic victory in November.

Frederica Freyberg:
So I want to —

Bill McCoshen:
Well, the thing to remember is only one statewide incumbent in America lost in 2022, the governor of Nevada so beating a statewide incumbent, regardless of party, is very difficult.

Frederica Freyberg:
So Bill, I want to talk about the recall effort against Assembly Speaker Robin Vos launched this week ostensibly for his opposition of Donald Trump and failing to impeach Meagan Wolfe. What does this say about the schism in the Republican Party in the state?

Bill McCoshen:
I think it’s a small faction in the 63rd Assembly district who disliked the speaker for one reason or another. It’s destructive. Anyone who is watching this program that lives in that district should not sign those recall papers. Republicans shouldn’t be fighting Republicans. They should have their aim focused at Democrats. They’re going to be running on new maps this fall. There’s a presidential race. There’ll be competitive congressional races. We don’t need to be wasting resources fighting our own team before then.

Frederica Freyberg:
Scot, 30 seconds left. What do you make of the Vos recall effort?

Scot Ross:
I think — I can’t believe that the Republican Party would reject a thrice married real estate guy who is in court all the time. So it’s shocking to me. It’s terrible for democracy. Vos hasn’t done anything that’s recallable and the challenge will be swatted away like Bill says. But, again, division on the Republican side.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. We leave it there. Thanks very much, Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross.

Bill McCoshen:
Thank you.

Scot Ross:
Thank you.