Here & Now

McCoshen & Ross on Biden-Trump Rematch Expectations for 2024

Frederica Freyberg:
Turning to Wisconsin as a key battleground state in the November elections, it’s game on. This past Tuesday’s primary elections across the country cemented Donald Trump and Joe Biden as the major party candidates for president. Again. Candidates for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin are also out of the campaign chutes. We check in now with our political panelists, Republican Bill McCoshen and Democrat Scot Ross. Nice to see you again.

Bill McCoshen:
Thanks for having us.

Scot Ross:
Great to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:
To start things off, I mean, we have one candidate described officially as old and forgetful and another as an indicted threat to democracy. Given that, who is in a better position here? Bill?

Bill McCoshen:
First of all, most polls over the last several months have said this is the race no one wanted. Two-thirds of voters said they didn’t want a rematch from 2020, yet here we are. It’s Groundhog Day in America. We have not seen anything like this. A rematch of previous contenders in 68 years. Ike versus Adlai Stevenson was the last time we’ve seen anything like this. The last time we saw a former president run against a current president was 134 years ago, Grover Cleveland against Benjamin Harrison. So it’s pretty rare.

Scot Ross:
Don’t you dare make a Biden joke.

Bill McCoshen:
It’s pretty rare in American politics, and you know, this race I think is already baked. There’s not a lot of undecideds. Everybody knows these two people. They either think Biden is old or they think Trump’s got issues, ethic issues. So, you know, I hope it’s not a battle to the bottom, but I’m hoping that both of them can elevate the game and inspire America and win the job, but we’ll see over the next eight months. This will be the longest presidential general election we’ve ever had.

Frederica Freyberg:
And a bloodbath, I imagine. So, Scot, what about you? Who do you think is in a better position given the descriptions of these two candidates?

Scot Ross:
I’d say this. So your house is on fire and you’ve got an 81-year-old guy who comes from Scranton with a bucket of water, fire hose and a guy, a 77-year-old from New York or Florida who comes with a gallon of gasoline. Which one are you going to hire to do the job that needs to be done which is to put the fire out in your house. I mean I think this is Biden’s race to lose, but they’ve got to do all the work, and I care about Wisconsin. And clearly, what happened in 2016 is never going to happen here again. Like they will invest, they’re investing heavy. At the same time, they’re doing all that investing here, you’ve got the stuff with the RNC where they’ve lost dozens of staffers. They just announced they’re closing all the minority outreach centers in places like Milwaukee and you’ve got a candidate who now has taken over the RNC and you don’t know if they’re going to spend this money on Hovde and Van Orden or if they’re going to spend it on his legal bills. I think there’s a lot there. On the issues I think Biden has it top to bottom, starting with abortion, first and foremost.

Bill McCoshen:
I’m somewhat amazed that I’m saying that Donald Trump, I believe, is in the frontrunner spot right now, nationally, all national polls, most national polls. I think there are a couple that show Biden in the lead. All the rest show Trump in the lead and it has him leading in some critical states like Michigan. ABC/Ipsos had him up three points in Michigan and the pro-Palestinian movement is part of Biden’s problem there. As it relates to Wisconsin, I would give Donald Trump and his team this advice writ large: less is more. I would go golfing for the next eight months. I would do what Biden did in 2020. I think these rallies that he has are very dangerous because he’s very undisciplined on the stump. I think if he says less, he wins this thing easily. If he engages all the way along for the next eight months, it’s going to be a coin toss.

Frederica Freyberg:
Huh. So what is it like for establishment Republicans to go all in for Donald Trump in Wisconsin?

Bill McCoshen:
Well, he’s the option. Right? I mean, guys like me are — I wanted someone who could serve two terms, who was more conservative. I lost. So for me, I’m hopeful that he’ll pick someone as his running mate that will appeal to the suburban voters. Donald Trump did not do well with the suburban voters in the state of Wisconsin and in multiple other swing states in 2020. He has to fix that in this election if he picks a sycophant who just is loyal to him, fiercely loyal to him, I don’t think that changes the dynamic for his election. He needs to pick somebody who looks like the future of the Republican Party.

Scot Ross:
I agree with what Bill is saying. He should do that. I don’t think he will. He’s going to pick a sycophant. And when you’re talking about the suburban voters, two things: abortion and the fact that he’s currently trying to pay off a defamatory suit against him by a victim of his sexual assault. I think that’s — if suburban women voters weren’t turned off by abortion, that’s just the nail in the coffin. I think, again, got to do the work.

Bill McCoshen:
Right now, the top two issues are immigration or the border and the economy, and Trump’s right side up on those. He’s plus 10 at least on both of those issues. So if the election is about those two issues in the fall, he’s going to win.

Frederica Freyberg:
It’s interesting, the issue of the economy. I mean, I guess it’s housing costs that are making people think that it’s bad, but by other metrics, it’s just not.

Bill McCoshen:
I’m going to stipulate that a lot of the economic data is good for the president. It is not translating into support at the ballot box. Voters don’t feel it. They don’t see it. And unless and until they do, it’s going to benefit Donald Trump.

Frederica Freyberg:
I want to get to the U.S. Senate race, Republican Eric Hovde is now in the race. He wasn’t the last time we spoke. Are his deep pockets a threat?

Scot Ross:
I think the two — three big challenges that Eric Hovde has. First is that he’s facing an incredibly formidable candidate in Tammy Baldwin, who has bipartisan support across the board for what she has done for the state of Wisconsin, the Dairy Pride Act, the ACA and letting 26-year-olds be on healthcare, the issue of abortion and Buy America. Those things, things that were made permanent — put in place with Trump’s signature, made permanent by President Biden. Hovde, so that’s his first challenge. His other two challenges are a little bit, you know, he’s very clearly running his own campaign, and Bill — any candidate who is trying to run their own campaign is a disaster in waiting and the third point I would say is that he’s trying — his ads, he’s trying to create a cult of personality around himself, and there’s only one cult figure in the GOP and that’s Trump.

Bill McCoshen:
We’re going to agree on the first part, Tammy Baldwin is going to be a tough out. I think your viewers should be reminded that only one statewide incumbent lost anywhere in the country in 2022 and that was the governor of Nevada. So beating a statewide incumbent is a very high mountain to climb. Having said that, I think Eric Hovde’s off to a very, very good start. I believe he’s cleared the field. I don’t think he’ll have a primary which will allow him to manage his resources better. Tim Michels two years ago was spending roughly a million dollars a week to beat Rebecca Kleefisch in the primary. Hovde won’t have to spend that kind of money to get through the primary, but he’s got to introduce himself to Wisconsin. I think they’ve been nimble on their feet so far. I like the fact that he’s advertising in Dane County because a Republican cannot get swamped in Dane County and Milwaukee County and win statewide, so I give him an “A” for his first month on the campaign trail.

Frederica Freyberg:
We have to leave it there. Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross, thanks very much.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
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