Here & Now

McCoshen and Ross Election Recap

Frederica Freyberg:
More on the election results and what it all means with our political panelists, Capitol Consultants’ Bill McCoshen and Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now. Thanks for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:
Thanks for having us.

Frederica Freyberg:
So reaction to Tuesday night’s results?

Scot Ross:
Well, six Democrats on statewide ballot and six Democrats won. It was a huge, resounding victory for not just good government, but for the people of Wisconsin. 565,000 people early voted. That is a record. About 21% of the electorate. Top to bottom, every corner of the state, Democrats went out and voted and independents were with the Democrats on this one this time around. It’s a new day here in the state of Wisconsin. It’s a day where people are going to have to come together to forge real solutions.

Bill McCoshen:
Split decision. Democrats did win at the top of the ticket. Tammy Baldwin having the biggest margin, 10%. All the other races were very, very close. The gubernatorial race was 31,000 or 1.2%. The AGs race was 22,000 votes that separated them. Third party candidates played a role in both those races. So the good news for the Republicans was they overwhelmingly won the legislature. 63 seats in the Assembly, which was a loss of one. 19 seats in the Senate, which was a gain of one. So voters said we like the direction of the state. We’re just looking for a little tweak at the top.

Frederica Freyberg:
Speaking of that tweak at the top, is that like a gut punch?

Bill McCoshen:
I think so. Scott Walker has been around for a long time. For him to lose, I think had to be hard for him personally. Certainly hard for the administration. But it was — a lot of us saw this as a potentially the toughest race of his career. Tommy Thompson had said that many times. This was going to be Scott Walker’s toughest race. I think the fact that Tony Evers got through the primary was even more problematic for Walker because he was so generic and vanilla. It was hard to attack him and have anything stick. The race ultimately was more about Walker and wasn’t enough.

Frederica Freyberg:
Let me just ask, what do you know about what Scott Walker might do next?

Bill McCoshen:
So there are some rumors that he’s considering the ministry, which wouldn’t surprise anyone. He’s a very spiritual man. His father was a minister. I’m not sure if that’s his final course. I think he’ll be guided by god and we’ll see. But I’d be surprised if he didn’t do something in the faith community. He may have some options with the Trump Administration. But quite honestly, I’m not sure if those are something he’d be interested in.

Scot Ross:
There’s an election in two years. Scott Walker will be a part of it in some way, shape or form. In 2022 not only is the governor up, but also Ron Johnson’s not running for Senate again. So that opportunity is there. Scott Walker spent 25 years doing politics. He ain’t going away.

Frederica Freyberg:
And that would seem to be like what he might do. What do you think of that?

Bill McCoshen:
Listen, sometimes a pause is okay. You can be off the stage for a little while. Let things cool down. Remember, voters overwhelmingly support the direction of the state. On Charles Franklin’s Marquette Law School Poll, the final poll had 54% of the people saying the state was heading in the right direction. 50% of the people said Walker was doing a good job. They approved of his job approval. So they were looking for a little bit of a tweak here, not necessarily like you would see at the national level, where it’s a tone thing. Where some voters don’t like Donald Trump’s tone. Scott Walker’s never had a tone like that. They were just looking for someone who’s going to keep their eye on Wisconsin full-time.

Frederica Freyberg:
So you don’t think Trump had anything to do with Scott Walker losing?

Scot Ross:
Oh, I think he did because Trump was on the ballot. Scott Walker tied himself. Now there wasn’t advertising. This shows you how powerful the Trump thing was. There wasn’t any advertising with, for instance, Donald Trump and Scott Walker in the oval office. The photo of him sitting in what we call the big boy chair. But he was definitely on the ballot because again, look at people running to the polls. Again, 565,000 people early voted. Dane County and Milwaukee County were enormous in terms of turnout. We also saw a depression in terms of the WOW counties, where suburban white women who were saying, “I ain’t with this Trump character.”

Bill McCoshen:
I think they under-used him. And I’ve said that on previous shows.

Frederica Freyberg:
Under-used Donald Trump?

Bill McCoshen:
Yeah. They should have put him back and put him either in West Bend or Port Washington or even in Waukesha. Where he performed — he went to Mosinee and all the northern counties Walker did better than he did in 2014. Mike Pence went to St. Croix County, to Hudson the final weekend and Walker did 1800 votes better than he did in 2014.

Frederica Freyberg:
Let me ask you about this. This thing that’s come out this week that the Republican legislative leaders are talking about limiting the power of Governor-elect Tony Evers.

Scot Ross:
It’s ridiculous. Robin Vos is the one who’s out there. It’s because Robin Vos is making a play to, allegedly, be the most powerful elected Republican in the state of Wisconsin. The fact is Robin Vos’ caucus, which is 63 because he lost Scott Walker and Leah Vukmir’s old Assembly seat, the fact is they got 45% of the vote but because of rigged maps, he gets 63 votes in the Assembly. That is not a mandate. As I understand it and I checked my Constitution — 45% of the votes in an Assembly caucus does not give you the keys to the governor’s office.

Bill McCoshen:
63 seats, 19 seats. I expect the legislature, the Republicans, to come back into lame duck session shortly after Thanksgiving. This is not uncommon. Democrats did it when Jim Doyle was governor on his way out the door. They tried to codify state employee contracts. Failed and Act 10 came two months later. I think they will come back. I think they’ll try and adjust some things but they’ll never limit the governor’s power. This is the most powerful veto anywhere in the country. Tony Evers will always have that. What they’ll do is some nips and tucks, some surgical changes to codify existing laws that they’ve already passed.

Scot Ross:
I think Governor-elect Evers, as Bill said, has the most powerful veto pen when he gets into office. He also has the bully pulpit, which is incredibly powerful. You’ve been there before so you know how powerful the bully pulpit is. What I like is the fact that Governor-elect Evers came out so very strong to say, “Hold on just one second.” And basically the educator gave Robin Vos a civics lesson. And I think that was great to see.

Bill McCoshen:
Voters voted for divided government and got to see a little bit of that this week. I mean Tony Evers, it was slightly out of character for him, but he’s going to have to do more of that in order to compete with Vos and Fitzgerald going forward.

Frederica Freyberg:
Bill and Scot, we leave it there. Thanks very much.

Scot Ross, Bill McCoshen:
Thank you.