Here & Now

Marquette U. Pollster Charles Franklin on Pres. Candidates

Zac Schultz:

We do know three of the names on the ballot for president. In the latest Marquette Law School Poll tells us who voters prefer right now. Poll Director Charles Franklin joins us now. Thank you for your time today.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here.

Zac Schultz:

Your latest polling was in the field right after the conventions and it appears the race for president is relatively unchanged even with the Libertarian candidate in the mix.

Charles Franklin:

That’s right. We added the Libertarian this time explicitly for the first time, so that was a change. But we’ve really seen a pretty tight race with a small but consistent Biden lead. Since May, we’ve had Biden ahead with likely voters by four points, by six, by five and now by four this time. Jorgensen, the Libertarian, gets 4% this time. And that’s kind of notable. That’s about what the Libertarian candidate got in 2016. But the question is as we get closer to the election, can she sustain that support. But between Trump and Biden, we’ve just been seeing one percentage point differences over time. It has come down from June to August to September, but just by one point each time. That’s not strong enough to identify that as a trend. But I think a close race, small advantage Biden would be the easy way to wrap up the summer.

Zac Schultz:

One of the reasons regular polling is worthy of coverage is to measure which events actually shift public opinion. In this case, you’ve been asking about approval of protests against police shootings. We saw a drop in support over the summer, but there really wasn’t a change after the shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha and the protests that occurred afterwards, correct?

Charles Franklin:

That’s right. And I think it’s important to understand that. Support for protests and for Black Lives Matter was high in June. There was an immediate sympathetic reaction, I think. But by early August, before the events in Kenosha, we had seen a couple of months of continued protests. We had seen some images of vandalism in that, including in Madison and elsewhere here in the state. But we had also seen additional examples of police violence against people of color. So there were both of these messages going on and President Trump had already started talking about the protests in terms of law and order and violence and revolutionaries, as he sees it. And so people had already had all of those messages. The events in Kenosha were vivid, dramatic and important. But they weren’t new. And as a result, people didn’t change their minds particularly after it.

Zac Schultz:

And I’ve been doing interviews recently and a lot of Republicans tell me they’re convinced Kenosha is an inflection point in this race and Trump’s law and order message is resonating. But your latest poll was in the field during the time Trump visited Kenosha and you found the only people that changed their minds were Republicans.

Charles Franklin:

That’s right. About half the sample, just over 400, were interviewed before he came and about half interviewed after he came. There was very little movement, but a big move among Republicans, who became much more approving of the way the president has handled the protests, going from 65% approval to 87%. But among Independents and Democrats there was hardly any change at all. This is an example of preaching to the choir and you got an amen from the choir but the choir was already voting for him and that’s why it didn’t change the vote very much.

Zac Schultz:

Another thing that occurred while your poll was in the field was a lot of kids went back to school, some virtually, some in person. Your poll found 51% of people were uncomfortable with reopening schools. And notably, there was a big shift among parents with school-age children.

Charles Franklin:

I think it’s striking that nonparents, people without a kid in the household at least, barely changed between early August and now. But parents flip-flopped. They went from the 40s uncomfortable, 50s comfortable to exactly the opposite of that, more uncomfortable than comfortable. We’ll see how that shapes up in a month as schools try to reopen or some stay with online instruction.

Zac Schultz:

And when you look at the numbers from around the state, there’s a big difference between areas in how comfortable they are with schools reopening.

Charles Franklin:

Yeah. Yeah. We see that, you know, urban areas are much more uncomfortable than rural areas. Also, we saw that areas that have had significant outbreaks, like in the Green Bay area, we saw a little more discomfort than in areas that have been less affected.

Zac Schultz:

And when do you expect to have more polling coming out as we’re getting closer and closer to the election?

Charles Franklin:

Sure. We’ll have two more before election day roughly equally spaced from now til then.

Zac Schultz:

Can we expect to see any movements? Is there room for October surprises in just the last few seconds?

Charles Franklin:

There’s less than there was. About half as many people say they’re undecided now. And less than half as many say they dislike both presidential candidates, down to about 8% that don’t like either Trump or Biden. It was 21% in 2016. That reduces volatility, but let’s remember what happened last time. Surprises can occur.

Zac Schultz:

That’s right. Professor Charles Franklin, thanks for your time today.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.