Here & Now

Numbers are in for US Senate, Governor's Race

Frederica Freyberg:

Primary election day is less than a month away. We begin tonight with a new poll. Numbers in a crowded democratic race for governor as well as other results with Marquette Law School poll director Charles Franklin. Thanks for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

So talking first about that dem primary and the candidates for governor. It’s still single digits for most of them. Does this surprise you?

Charles Franklin:

A little bit. You might have thought that somebody would break out of the pack. Tony Evers has had an advantage all along in the three polls we’ve done, but he’s also increased that advantage. He’s gone from an 18 point to 25 point to now 31 points in this latest poll. While the seven remaining candidates are all in single digits. So we haven’t seen any of the other seven start to really break out, but, and this is really important, 38% say they haven’t decided how they’ll vote in that race. While Evers is clearly the front runner at this point, the fact that so many are undecided and the field as a whole is as unknown as it is, there is still time in this four week period for something to change and perhaps change dramatically if that one candidate could break out of the pack.

Frederica Freyberg:

Do you feel like a last minute flurry of campaign commercials could do that?

Charles Franklin:

The ads alone usually don’t. It’s because one candidate gets a moment that lets them stand out with a message that really resonates with the voters who haven’t made up their minds. And that’s the– historically, that’s the way somebody breaks out of the pack. The ads are important and they helpful but it’s the key event or moment that helps.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now this is your last poll before the primary. Why no head-to-head match ups like in the last poll?

Charles Franklin:

Sure. What we did November hypothetical match up in the June poll and basically they were all, for the governor’s race, between two and four or six point margins. Repeating that seems kind of pointless with eight match ups. We’ll know who the nominee is in August, but I think the real thing is, it simply shows that a well-known incumbent paired against a challenger, you’re going to mostly get a partisan split between those two and same thing applies to the senate race.

Frederica Freyberg:

Speaking of the senate race, the republican primary in that contest, is Leah Vukmir up two points over Kevin Nicholson. How has that polling trended?

Charles Franklin:

Well that one has tightened and is now, I think, a clear toss-up. Vukmir is ahead by two, 34-32, but there’s a seven point margin of error, so that’s not a lead. That is a real toss up race. But it has narrowed. Nicholson led by nine in March and five in June. So now we’ve seen it move to truly a toss-up at this point. 30% undecided, I should add there too. So again, there’s lots of people to make up their mind.

Frederica Freyberg:

So election night is going to be a fun night for all of us to be watching these results come in. As for Tammy Baldwin, she’s right side up on her favorables according to your poll. What does the 18% “don’t know” say?

Charles Franklin:

That actually is down a bit for her. Both of our senators have typically had “don’t know” rates in the 20s somewhere. And then as we come into an election season, the “don’t know” rate comes down a bit. That’s where it is for Baldwin. It’s much lower, it’s only 6% for Scott Walker. That’s the difference between the governor that everybody has an opinion about, and the senators who are not necessarily in the news every single day.

Frederica Freyberg:

Speaking of Scott Walker, you have his approval rating. What’s the trend for him?

Charles Franklin:

He has actually held the same two-point net approval, this time it’s 47-45. A month ago, it was 49-47. So both numbers came down just a shade. Those are small net positives after a period of dead-even evaluations in 2017 and early ’18 and having been under water in all of 2015 and most of 2016.

Frederica Freyberg:

So Donald Trump’s approval rating, that’s remained fairly consistent.

Charles Franklin:

Again, pretty consistent. He’s dipped down just a couple of points in approval since last month, but when we look at him over the time he’s been in office, his approval number has moved just a couple, three points up or down. His disapproval has hovered at about 50% for quite a while now.

Frederica Freyberg:

Partisan, very partisan split there.

Charles Franklin:

It is.

Frederica Freyberg:

So you also asked people what they thought about their roads in the state of Wisconsin. Respondents seem to think that they’re pretty bad. But it varies depending where you are.

Charles Franklin:

Well we did. We asked, “Are your roads excellent, good, fair or poor?” Excellent or good was 40%. Fair or poor was 59%. Interestingly 0% said they didn’t have an opinion about roads. In contrast to the 18% without an opinion about Senator Baldwin. This is something that’s salient to people. There’s a divide. And when you look at, the northern part of the state, 66% say their roads are in poor or fair shape. In the south and southeast, it’s 52% that say they are. So there is a noticeable, negative view in the northern part of the state.

Frederica Freyberg:

Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.