Here & Now

Latest Poll Puts Sanders in a Double-Digit Lead Over Dems

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile, Wisconsin is “feeling The Bern.” In tonight’s inside look, the new Marquette Law School poll has Bernie Sanders in a double digit lead against Democratic primary challengers in Wisconsin. We check in with Poll Director Charles Franklin. Thanks very much for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

Well, so your polling shows a 29% favor Sanders, 17% Bloomberg, 15% Biden, 13% Buttigieg, 11% Klobuchar and 9% Warren. Things really have changed since your last poll for Joe Biden.

Charles Franklin:

That’s right. And what’s happened between those two is Iowa and New Hampshire. We were finishing up polling after Nevada voted so mostly this is before that. But that’s a 10 point bump up for Sanders. It’s the first time he’s led in the polls we’ve been doing almost monthly since August. It’s also a fall for Biden. He had led each previous poll and now falls not even to second, but to third place. Mike Bloomentha — Bloomberg, sorry, who has been down in single digits, bumps up into second place. And finally Elizabeth Warren, who had been in the top tier of candidates, has fallen off to now sixth place.

Frederica Freyberg:

Another question in your poll showed that the three top Democratic picks also have like these really high unfavorables. Is this like holding your nose and voting?

Charles Franklin:

Well, there are two sides to this. Among just Democratic voters, most of them are seen pretty favorable. The one exception is Bloomberg. But among the entire electorate, all of them, with the exception of Amy Klobuchar, are more negatively viewed than Donald Trump is, which is sort of a surprise. But the reason is that Republicans are completely united in liking Trump and disliking all of the Democrats. But within the Democratic Party, between 20% and 25% have unfavorable views of their own candidates. The reason is that they have a first choice and that person gets 90% favorability, but then they have reservations about the other Democratic candidates. It will probably come together once there’s a nominee. But right now it’s holding down Democratic favorability.

Frederica Freyberg:

So another question you asked was whether or not people had made up their minds, and you found that 56% of Democratic respondents say they might change their mind. Is that a high number at this time?

Charles Franklin:

It’s kind of high. It’s been coming down gradually over the last four months. So it may be high, but it’s less high than it was a little while ago. Also, remember, we are so early in the process really of voting. South Carolina and then Super Tuesday and then more March events will all affect who is still a candidate by the time we vote in April. So in that sense, it may be realistic for Democrats to say I could change my mind because I don’t actually know who will still be a viable candidate.

Frederica Freyberg:

Would a big win for Biden in South Carolina change the trajectory of this thing?

Charles Franklin:

It’s hard to say. It’s clear that if he loses South Carolina or just barely ekes out a win that puts his campaign in real trouble for doing well on Super Tuesday. A strong finish, though, gives him the opportunity to do well. But it’s unclear whether it would propel victory on Super Tuesday. So more of a risk on the downside.

Frederica Freyberg:

The age of Bernie Sanders’ backers has changed a little bit in this latest survey. 18 to 29-year-olds still by far the biggest supporters. But the older set is kind of warming up to him.

Charles Franklin:

I think that’s an important point. He has always, in 2016 as well as this year, done way better with younger voters and fallen off quite a bit with older voters. But in this February poll we see him cracking 20% support and above with some of the older voters. That’s something he had not done before. And it shows that his rise this month is coming across the age spectrum in every group that’s more support than it was a month ago.

Frederica Freyberg:

As for Republican respondents, your polling showed they think Bloomberg is the biggest threat to Trump. You also found 10% of Republicans expect to cross over in the primary and vote for who?

Charles Franklin:

Well, that’s an interesting question. With just 10%, it’s hard to know. There’s just not enough cases to have much of an idea. Some of those people may be anti-Trump Republicans who are crossing over. Some may be crossing over to make mischief in the other party. And finally let’s remember, we have an open primary law here.

Frederica Freyberg:

Right.

Charles Franklin:

It’s every citizen’s right to vote in whichever primary they want to vote in. They don’t have to be predeclared as a Republican or a Democrat.

Frederica Freyberg:

On head to head match ups, Sanders is the only one who slightly edges Trump, all the rest are pretty even. But Biden had a nine-point lead the last time.

Charles Franklin:

Yeah. One of the things that shifted here is that he, Biden, had led against Trump in all but one of our polls this fall. Sometimes close, sometimes not so close. But now tied. Sanders has been just barely ahead of Trump in most and behind in one and that’s basically where he is right now. I think the bottom line, though, is that the November race is super close.

Frederica Freyberg:

Yep.

Charles Franklin:

All of these are inside the margin of error. It’s a long, long ways to November.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.