Here & Now

Latest Numbers Show Wisconsin's Races In Dead Heat

Frederica Freyberg:

New statewide poll numbers out this week on the U.S. Senate race as well as the race for governor between Tony Evers and incumbent Scott Walker. In tonight’s closer look, we go over the results of the latest Marquette Law School survey with the poll’s director, Charles Franklin. And Charles, thanks very much for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:

Well it would seem to me that the watchword on your polling for both the U.S. Senate and the governor’s race is tight.

Charles Franklin:

Tight’s a good word for it. 46/46 in the governor’s race, 49/47 in the Senate race, both with a 4.5% margin of error. So obviously inside that margin. You know, if you look back in June, we had Walker ahead by four and Baldwin ahead by nine. But those were among registered voters, everybody that’s registered to vote. These numbers that are so tight are among likely voters, the people that say they’re sure they’ll vote in November. For an apples to apples comparison, registered voters had Walker ahead by two this month as opposed to four in June and had Baldwin ahead by eight compared to nine. So the Baldwin race doesn’t tighten as much with registered voters, but does with likelies. And likelies are people who pay more attention to politics, more likely to know about the candidates.

Frederica Freyberg:

And are those the numbers that people should be watching?

Charles Franklin:

Yes. I think at this point. We shift from registered voters to likely as we get close enough to an election for people to really be making up their minds about whether they’re going to vote. Asking how sure are you going to vote nine months ahead of time seems a little early. But as we go through September and October especially, those likely voter numbers should become more and more meaningful as people both choose their candidates and make up their minds to participate.

Frederica Freyberg:

Were you surprised by the bounce that Leah Vukmir appeared to get post-primary?

Charles Franklin:

Well, it’s a pretty substantial bounce. I think both candidates — remember, we were in the field Wednesday to Sunday right after the primary. So both had come off primary wins. In Vukmir’s case, a pretty divisive Republican primary. And so this may represent Nicholson supporters now moving sharply to her and that would account for some of the bounce. But it’s also both she and Evers have increased their familiarity to voters. People are now better able to identify them. That may be helping both of the challengers.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now, back to the governor’s race specifically. Those are even as we have already shown. Now that is despite the fact that the governor was warning his supporters that he might be down in this very poll. Why would he have forecast that?

Charles Franklin:

Well, lowering expectations is not necessarily a bad political strategy, and we saw other polls, not mine, but by Marist for NBC and the Emerson College Poll that showed Walker behind by 13 and I think by nine the week or so before the primary. So we had him up by four in our last June poll. You know, where are you in there? Maybe we are the high number. Maybe those other folks are exceptionally good for Democrats. But where are we? So I think the governor was lowering expectations. Of course, what we don’t know is what does his own polling show? Did he say that based on something that internally is showing not so good numbers for him?

Frederica Freyberg:

That would be likely, I imagine. So in terms of favorables and unfavorables, what stands out here?

Charles Franklin:

First of all, it is getting to know the candidates better. You may not notice it there, but if you add up those numbers, you see that Vukmir and Evers still are in the 30% range of people who say they don’t know them. But that’s down from the 60s and 70s a couple months ago. So they are both in better shape there. The balance for Vukmir is just a little bit net negative, but it’s basically even or positive for the others, and with Walker a shade higher, Evers a little bit net positive. So all of the candidates are in roughly competitive ground on these measures.

Frederica Freyberg:

Let’s take a look. You did some issues polling as well, Wisconsin issues. It’s interesting to note that the top issues for respondents are the same as they ever were, right? I mean, it is jobs, education and health coverage.

Charles Franklin:

Exactly. And jobs and the economy is near the top of most important problems almost always except at the end of real boom times, where, you know, under 3% unemployment, it’s a little surprising that that still rises to the top of concerns. But with K-12 education, you have an issue that has been engaged by the Walker Administration for his entire term, two terms, and Tony Evers as school superintendent. So that’s a natural one there. But other measures have shown greater concern for education over time. Health coverage is endemic. Everybody worries about it. And the last one, roads and road repair, didn’t make the top three for the most important, but it did bounce up to the top four when you include the second-most important issue.

Frederica Freyberg:

Just super briefly, what did you find about Donald Trump?

Charles Franklin:

Well, Trump’s approval numbers are still under water a bit, about 45 approve, 51 disapprove. 87% approve among Republicans, 5% among Democrats. Independents it’s about 34% approve. And on other issues like immigration, dealings with Russia, his approval ratings are a bit lower than his overall. It goes from the 45 down three or four points on immigration and then down another two or three points on Russia.

Frederica Freyberg:

People who like the man like the man, not necessarily his policies.

Charles Franklin:

The policies are a little slippery compared to the overall approval.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.