Announcer:

The following program is a PBS Wisconsin original production. The following program is a “Here & Now” 2022 election special.

Zac Schultz:

The campaign trail for the U.S. Senate seat heats up and campaign commercials add fuel to the fire. The state’s smoldering brain drain intensifies and keeping warm this winter will come at a steep cost.

Good evening, I’m Zac Schultz filling in for Frederica Freyberg. Tonight on “Here & Now,” a report on the race for U.S. Senate, the impact of parole becoming political, what the exodus of young people means for the state’s economy and how to save on energy costs with efficiency planning. It’s “Here & Now” for September 30th.

Announcer:

Funding is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz:

The race for a seat in the U.S. Senate between incumbent Ron Johnson and challenger Mandela Barnes may decide which party controls the chamber. “Here & Now” reporter Steven Potter has this report on the contest between Wisconsin’s senior senator and the state’s lieutenant governor.

Steven Potter:

The cost of everything is up. Numerous polls show inflation is the number one concern among voters.

Ron Johnson:

Do not believe the lies.

Steven Potter:

Political candidates including Republican Ron Johnson and Democrat Mandela Barnes who are competing for a seat in the U.S. Senate want Wisconsin voters to know they’re listening.

Mandela Barnes:

All across the state people are concerned. They’ve been concerned with rising costs.

Ron Johnson:

They’d like some relief from inflation.

Steven Potter:

Barnes is currently serving as the state lieutenant governor and Johnson is seeking his third term in the Senate. They have very different plans for addressing inflation. Senator Johnson says problem is high government spending.

Ron Johnson:

Stop spending so much money. Inflation — it’s pretty easy to understand what caused it. It’s massive deficit spending. It’s printing dollars. You have way too many dollars chasing too few goods.

Steven Potter:

Lt. Governor Barnes says some targeted tax changes are needed.

Mandela Barnes:

We need a middle-class tax cut and we can achieve this by making sure the wealthiest among us pay their fair share. That’s how we get to a place where families can have a little more economic security.

Steven Potter:

UW-Madison political scientist Eleanor Powell says the pain that people are feeling financially might motivate those who don’t usually vote in mid-term elections.

Eleanor Powell:

Between the pandemic, the economy and inflation, a lot of people are really hurting and that could bring out a lot of sort of more discontented voters.

Steven Potter:

But there’s another issue that Powell says is highly motivating in the contest between Barnes and Johnson and that’s abortion.

Eleanor Powell:

Particularly women, younger voters are really upset by the overturning of Roe vs. Wade and abortion politics, which have been particularly consequential here in Wisconsin we had this sort of preexisting ban dating back to the 1800s on the books. And so this has mobilized a lot of energy on the left. And it’s not really enthusiasm. It’s really anger and mobilization.

Steven Potter:

Barnes is calling for a new federal law allowing access to abortion. To achieve this, he wants to end the filibuster in the Senate. A filibuster is a tactic used to prevent a bill from passing by stalling it with prolonged debate.

Mandela Barnes:

The reality is we need to end the filibuster to codify the right to choose into law once and for all and we can do this if we flip Wisconsin and add one more seat to the 50/50 quote, unquote majority that we have right now.

Steven Potter:

Johnson who opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest or if the life of the mother is at risk, says individual states should use referendums to decide if abortion should be allowed.

Ron Johnson:

In 50 states, people use democratic process to answer this question. Here’s the fundamental question of this profound moral issue: at what point does society have the responsibility to protect life? How do you balance the rights of a woman versus the rights of an unborn child.

Steven Potter:

Unlike other states, Wisconsin law does not currently allow direct referendums.

Eleanor Powell:

Senator Johnson speaks very well to the Trump wing of the Republican Party. Lieutenant Governor Barnes is young. He sort of represents a new generation in American politics. He really is trying to speak to younger voters, voters of color, voters who often feel their interests aren’t being well represented in Washington.

Steven Potter:

Barnes and Johnson took very different paths into politics. Mandela Barnes was born and raised in Milwaukee and is very proud of his working-class roots.

Mandela Barnes:

Mom was a teacher and my dad worked third shirt.

Steven Potter:

After working in community organizing, he ran for office at the age of 25, winning a seat representing Milwaukee’s north side in the state Assembly. After two terms there, Barnes ran unsuccessfully for the state Senate in 2016 before winning election as lieutenant governor in 2018 with Democratic Governor Tony Evers. In his run for the U.S. Senate, Barnes says his goal is to help middle-class Americans.

Mandela Barnes:

As I look around the state, times are getting tougher for people. Things are more difficult. It’s harder and harder to get ahead, access to middle class has been denied to so many people.

Steven Potter:

On the other side, Ron Johnson, who lives in Oshkosh, is equally as proud of his working-class background.

Narrator:

As a young man, he shoveled driveways, mowed lawns, delivered papers.

Steven Potter:

After a successful career in plastics manufacturing, Johnson first ran for U.S. Senate in 2010, beating longtime Democratic Senator Russ Feingold. He beat Feingold again in 2016. In the Senate, Johnson has served on the Homeland Security and Budget Committees. In 2016, you said you would only run for two terms. January you decided you’d run again. What made you change your mind?

Ron Johnson:

Our nation’s coming apart. Trust me, it was my preference and my wife’s very strong preference to serve out that second term and just return to our private life. I think I’m in a position where I’ve had a great deal of success as a U.S. Senator. I’ve helped improve things.

Steven Potter:

While both candidates are trying to stay on message with what they can offer voters, Johnson and Barnes also have plenty of criticism for each other.

Ron Johnson:

He is a radical leftist. I know he’s trying to hide that from Wisconsinites.

Mandela Barnes:

This is about an out of touch politician who has failed to deliver for Wisconsin, who has put himself ahead of all of us every chance.

Steven Potter:

But the candidates aren’t the only ones getting into the mudslinging. Outside groups are running their own political attack ads.

Narrator:

Ron Johnson used his office to scoop up millions for himself .

Narrator:

Mandela Barnes supports defunding the police.

Steven Potter:

Political Science Professor Eleanor Powell says voters should be very leery of any advertising they see or things mailed to their homes.

Eleanor Powell:

Political ads are in this really funny exempt category where people can say whatever they want and there’s no obligation for anything to be factual. Buyers should beware, viewers should beware that if just because it’s on TV does not mean it’s true.

Mandela Barnes:

We knew the other side would make up lies about me to scare you.

Ron Johnson:

You’ve seen the ads attacking me. They’re all lies.

Steven Potter:

Still both candidates do have their controversies. Johnson has come under fire for spreading misinformation about COVID-19 and a plan to give then-vice president Mike Pence a fake slate of presidential electors. Barnes has taken heat for paying his property taxes late and for the high cost of his security detail. Currently, the political makeup of the U.S. Senate stands at 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans and two independent Senators who lean left. Given that close split, Powell says election results in Wisconsin are key.

Eleanor Powell:

Control of the Senate hinges on our razor thin majority right now. Here in Wisconsin, we have the potential to determine who controls the Senate. Wisconsin may be the ball game here. If you care about the outcome of this race, you should show up on Election Day because we really don’t know what’s going to happen.

Steven Potter:

For “Here & Now,” I’m Steven Potter.

Zac Schultz:

Republicans are trying to make crime one of the big issues in the elections this fall. Republican candidate for governor Tim Michels recently received a pants-on-fire rating from PolitiFact for misrepresenting Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ record on paroles and pardons but that hasn’t stopped the issue from appearing in campaign ads.

Narrator:

Tony Evers parole commission has released hundreds of violent criminals early.

Tony Evers:

What people really do need to know is that a whole bunch of folks are mandatorily released from prison. The parole commission has no right to change that. They reach a date and they’re let go. Now, do I think there should be some changes over time? Absolutely, I think we should look at that.

Zac Schultz:

For more on this, we turn to Jerome Dillard, executive director of EX-incarcerated People Organizing or EXPO, an organization that works to reform the penal system. Thanks for your time today.

Jerome Dillard:

My pleasure, Zac.

Zac Schultz:

What’s the impact on formerly incarcerated people when topics like parole and pardons become politicized in this way?

Jerome Dillard:

Well, I think it’s the tough-on-crime rhetoric that worked so well in the ’90s and I’m surprised to see it being raised at this point in time but the facts aren’t there. And often times outright lies are being said about how our parole system works and all these violent criminals being released into our communities. The scare tactics, I know for a fact that the parole commissioner and Governor Evers and any other governor are following the law. It is law that when a person is sentenced 22 years ago, over 22 years ago, a judge had in mind what that sentence should look like. He knew they would be eligible for parole after 25% with good institutional adjustment and doing their programming that made them more susceptible to be in parole. The fact of the matter is not only is there parole but there’s mandatory release dates attached to those sentences. Say a judge gives you 80 years. I know that 20 years, I would be eligible if I behaved myself and at 75%, that’s mandatory release date for me.

Zac Schultz:

What is the impact on people who are trying to re-integrate into society and trying to start over when they hear messages like this?

Jerome Dillard:

You know, I hear their stories. Last year, we had a banquet with many, many or old-law, that’s what we referred to them as, old-law parolees. People who had been paroled and the success stories. To be honest with you, I feel if you do the research and if you look into the recidivism rates of those who were released on parole under this administration – I’m just going to stick to the last four years – none, none have been re-incarcerated for a violent crime. Most are out taking care of their families. They have jobs. I know so many personally from going into the prisons, doing talks with individuals for the last 20 years. So many of them I’ve met as young men in maximum security prisons who strive hard to change their lives. They thought about the environment they come from and some of the things they’ve done. They’ve repented and really adjusted real well in corrections and once they’re back in the streets, they’re thriving once they’re returned, they’re thriving in our communities.

Zac Schultz:

What would you like to see done to change either the way paroles are handled or the way the public understands them or the way the whole system works?

Jerome Dillard:

I think the public needs to be educated on how parole works. I think getting the stories, the voice of those who have been paroled 40 years ago, 10 years ago and where they are now would shed a little more light on to — people change and we all deserve a second chance. I know I did.

Zac Schultz:

You try and work with lawmakers to pass legislation. Does that become more difficult when this issue of how to make reforms within the system becomes politicized? That’s what said during a campaign season will roll around on the next legislative session?

Jerome Dillard:

We know there are many collateral consequences to having arrest and conviction records. A lot of what we’re speaking on is some of the collateral consequences like the right to vote. As long as you’re on supervision, you can’t cast a ballot in this state. We’re one in the Midwest that still keeps those policies in place that you have to completely fulfill your sentence before you can cast a ballot. The fact of the matter is, our terms of supervision, we’re the third highest in the country as far as how long someone is on supervision and many are on supervision for 20 years in this state. Two of my staff members would not be able to vote until 2042, 2044. Yet still they’ve been in the community working for a couple years now, paying taxes but still not feeling they’re part of America, period.

Zac Schultz:

For someone being released today, they’re coming into an environment with extremely low unemployment but housing shortages and high inflation. So what is it like? What’s the environment they’re coming into?

Jerome Dillard:

You’re right. Getting a job now is — a few years ago that was one of the main barriers is finding employment. And today, housing is a huge issue. That’s why so many nonprofits now are looking at how we can help them by housing them. You can have a job but if you don’t have stable living, how are you to maintain that job? How are you to maintain your hygiene and be sharp when you go to work if you can’t get a good night’s sleep? If you’re sleeping on a park bench or in a shelter, it makes it complicated.

Zac Schultz:

Your group has been around since 2014. We’ve got just a few seconds left. Describe the biggest progress you’ve seen on these issues in this time?

Jerome Dillard:

Well, I have seen some progress and I have to say this administration and the Department of Corrections have made some adjustments that they could, that’s within their boundaries or fulfilling what they could like expanding early release. The number of paroles — you know they’re saying they’re releasing all these dangerous criminals. I know the previous administration released more than this administration has but yet still there was nothing said because many of those had met their mandatory release date. I feel our parole commissioner did a great job. We can look at his recidivism rates. The recidivism rates of those who were paroled in the last four years and there’s — it’s amazing. It’s remarkable how low it is.

Zac Schultz:

We’re going to have to leave it there. That’s all the time we have. Jerome Dillard thank you for the time today.

Jerome Dillard:

Thank you, Zac. I appreciate you having me.

Zac Schultz:

A new report says Wisconsin’s workforce is expected to dwindle over the next decade without an increase in outside migration to Wisconsin by 2030, the state’s prime working age population will likely shrink by an estimated 130,000 unless we find a way to keep young people from leaving or convince more families to move here. Joining us now is Dale Knapp, the director of Forward Analytics, a research organization that is part of the Wisconsin Counties Association. Thanks for your time today.

Dale Knapp:

Good to be here.

Zac Schultz:

You used census data to try and track the inflow and outflow from Wisconsin and essentially you found as the baby boomers age into retirement, we have a major shortage.

Dale Knapp:

The first half of the baby boom aged into retirement over the last decade and it’s one of the reasons we are seeing worker shortages now because that had an effect. The second half is now aging into that and they’re about 20% bigger so that is going to — and we don’t have really enough young people coming up behind them to replace them. So the solution — the only solution, if we don’t want to see that big decline, is migration from other states or other countries.

Zac Schultz:

So will this lack or absence of workers be felt more severely in certain areas or will it just be spread across the whole economy?

Dale Knapp:

It will be spread across the whole economy. We’ll see it really everywhere. Probably you’ll see a bigger impact in northern Wisconsin. Northern Wisconsin’s population tends to be older as it is and fewer young people so it will be a little bit more acute there but we’ll see it everywhere.

Zac Schultz:

Your report talks a lot about young people and anyone that grew up in Wisconsin and went to college saw this happen. You go to college and you go explore the world, you move to a big city and some people come back home to raise a family. How do you encourage more of that? Is that a state solution? Is that a business or employer solution?

Dale Knapp:

I think — it’s a public-private kind of working together solution. One, we need to try to limit the number of young people that we’re losing. We’re going to lose a significant number, as you said, they want to get out there. But one of the things we find is when you look at average wages for white collar occupations, the college graduate occupations they’re going into, we tend to be 10% to 15% below the national average. In terms of the business sector, they have to understand that and if they want to keep those young people here, they have to make sure they’re competitive. And I think there’s a role for the state as well. We see states, counties across the country providing incentives for people to move to their states. Maine has been a leader in this. We’re not sure exactly how it looks but there are ways that we can incent people to move here or in case of Wisconsinites that have left, to move back here.

Zac Schultz:

Many of the places you report people are going to, the coasts or the south, are experiencing natural disasters, recurring. We just saw Hurricane Ian, Droughts, wildfires. How much could climate change make Wisconsin more desirable to everyone, not just natives?

Dale Knapp:

There’s increasing discussion around the notion that over time Wisconsin, with all of its water resources, is going to look more and more desirable for individuals and for businesses. So that may play a role in the near term not so much. That’s more of a longer-term pattern I think we may end up seeing.

Zac Schultz:

What can we do to be prepared? Should the state be doing more at this time or is this simply making everyone aware of the solution and let’s all talk about it.

Dale Knapp:

I think the solution to our challenge is really targeting what I call the family formation years. That’s where we’ve always been strong in terms of migration. It’s designing incentives for that age group to move here. And I think it’s also — there’s an education component to this that if you go outside the Midwest, people know very, very little about Wisconsin except that it’s cold and we have cheese and we have the Packers and that’s about it. So part of it is educating them on the quality of life that we have, the great schools we have, the relatively low crime. All of those things that families are looking for because once they know about it and once you get them here, most of them stay. So I think that’s the role that I think the state can play.

Zac Schultz:

And there’s still those of us who say, no, we don’t need any more people. We like the space we have. That’s all the time we have. Dale Knapp with Forward Analytics, thank you for your time.

Dale Knapp:

Thank you for having me.

Zac Schultz:

A lot of furnaces across the state turned on this week for the first time since last spring and the cost of keeping it running this winter is expected to make a big jump. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association put out a report this month saying the cost of heating the average American home will rise by 17% compared to last year. Joining us now is Chad Laibly with Focus on Energy, Wisconsin’s energy efficiency program. Thanks for joining us.

Chad Laibly:

Yeah, thank you.

Zac Schultz:

When a report like this comes out, do you see an increase the number of people all of a sudden realizing winter’s about to come here?

Chad Laibly:

Absolutely. Usually with a cold snap too. We always see a lot of inquiries.

Zac Schultz:

What should people be thinking of right now? What is the first response you’re giving them when they call and say what can I do?

Chad Laibly:

First, they need to do is be aware that they need to prepare their house for winter, right? Get your storm windows on. Definitely want to get a smart thermostat. We have discounts through Focus on Energy for those. Look into insulation and air sealing now because if you wait, typically the next three or four months, the schedules are pretty packed with companies.

Zac Schultz:

How much money can someone save on energy costs compared to the cost of weatherizing? Are there two scales there?

Chad Laibly:

Quite a bit. A deep retrofit of a home for insulation and air sealing can save up to 30% which is quite a lot. Doing just a minor job with just the attic may save anywhere between 10% and 15%. The one thing really nice about insulation is it tends to pay for itself within seven years, give or take two or three years.

Zac Schultz:

What do we know about the international supply? Obviously, we’ve got Russia/Ukraine. We’ve got hurricanes going through the gulf. We’ve got fires at refineries. Is that making it look even worse right now?

Chad Laibly:

It sure is and it’s keeping the energy prices really much higher than we would expect them to be. Propane has increased quite a bit. You just mentioned the article that said a lot of people’s propane might go up $30-ish. That’s not what I’m seeing. I’m seeing much more than that.

Zac Schultz:

Okay. Now, as much as no one wants to pay more for energy, can rising costs incentivize people to actually do some of these upgrades because the pay back is faster?

Chad Laibly:

Absolutely. Absolutely. We get a lot of inquiries about it. Particularly with the next year with the Inflation Reduction Act, there’s going to be a lot of opportunity for people to spend a little more than they normally would even when they have less just because the savings are going to be there.

Zac Schultz:

So with the Inflation Reduction Act that has a lot of the climate change and green issues in there, do we know yet what’s going to be coming? Are you starting to hear or is that still being finalized?

Chad Laibly:

Yeah, we’re shifting through the information and we’re seeing how that money will flow practically but we are expecting there to be some really good opportunities particularly with dual-fuel heat pumps. Dual-fuel heat pumps for those of you who don’t know are basically an air conditioner that acts in reverse and the technology wasn’t really there at a good price point for the type of cold climate that we have in Wisconsin, particularly negative 20. That’s kind of the sweet spot you want them to work to but now they do and so that’s going to be a really good option because there’s a lot of money for residential homeowners in the Inflation Reduction Action for that type of technology.

Zac Schultz:

We’ve been talking a lot about homeowners but there’s a lot of people that live in apartments. Are there things they can do that they should be thinking about as well?

Chad Laibly:

The same thing. Our program, Focus on Energy, works for renters as well.

Zac Schultz:

Where should they go? What should they be looking?

Chad Laibly:

They should look at www.focusonenergy.com. There’s a residential tab and we update it quite often. It has all the listings of our incentive dollars. Wisconsin really has won the lottery for home energy performance programs. Ours has been around for 22 years and it’s really well managed. The money doesn’t really run out because it’s so well managed. It’s a great opportunity.

Zac Schultz:

I’ve seen some of the forecasts. Whether you believe in the Farmers’ Almanac or if you want to go with the national weather service —

Chad Laibly:

I looked at my woolly bear caterpillar the other day.

Zac Schultz:

It says there’s a higher percentage chance we could have a colder and perhaps wetter winter than average, which just adds on to some of these energy costs, right?

Chad Laibly:

It does. It does. The bottom line is they’re going to be heating degree days. They are going to be used for heating your home regardless of whether it’s a really cold winter or not and heating costs are really on the rise so it’s something to be aware of. Something to be aware of now because, as again, like I said, the insulation companies are going to be really busy moving forward. Also, if you’ve called an HVAC company because of those dual-fuel heat pumps and just because of the general rise in costs, everybody wanting to get their machines tuned up, they are very busy as well. You’ve got to be patient.

Zac Schultz:

Chad Laibly with Focus on Energy, thanks for your time today.

Chad Laibly:

Thank you.

Zac Schultz:

For more on this and other issues facing Wisconsin, visit our website at PBSwisconsin.org and click on the news tab. Join us next Friday at 7:00 p.m. for the U.S. Senate debate followed by live “Here & Now” analysis. That’s our program for tonight. I’m Zac Schultz. Have a great weekend.

Announcer:

Funding is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.