Announcer:

A PBS Wisconsin original production. The following program is part of our “Here & Now” 2020 election coverage.

Frederica Freyberg:

Wisconsin, one of the nation’s pandemic and political hot spots. This week, the U.S. Supreme Court determined the fate of our ballots. Wisconsin’s high court now set to determine the fate of the governor’s mask mandate. All while Donald Trump and Joe Biden storm the Badger State with only four days until the election.

I’m Frederica Freyberg. It’s the final Friday before Election Day and Wisconsin is the place to be, with President Trump returning to the Badger State rallying voters today in Green Bay. And you’re looking live at former Vice President Joe Biden making his case tonight in Milwaukee.

Coming up, Marquette Law School Pollster Charles Franklin shares his final poll results of campaign 2020. Zac Schultz reports on how Donald Trump and Joe Biden worked the Wisconsin vote in the midst of the pandemic. Marisa Wojcik travels to Menominee County and explores the Native Vote. And Wisconsin’s Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ryan Westergaard is here. He’ll say why he calls the current COVID situation in Wisconsin “a nightmare scenario.” It’s “Here & Now” for October 30.

Announcer:

Funding for “Here & Now” is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.

Frederica Freyberg:

The ultimate poll will be taken on Tuesday. Until then, the best snapshot of the Wisconsin vote is the Marquette Law School Poll. Poll Director Charles Franklin joins us now with the results of his final 2020 survey. Charles, thanks very much for being here.

Charles Franklin:

Good to be here. Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:

So we wanted to look first at your likely voters match-ups and what you show is that it’s 48% Biden to 43% Trump, 2% Jorgensen and 7% no answer basically. You say this is sensitive to turnout. Describe what you mean.

Charles Franklin:

First of all, we tested whether it mattered. You know, we could have a very high turnout. I’m expecting us to set a record for turnout and that’s what our respondents are telling us. But we checked it. What if you had a super high turnout? Then that five-point margin goes to four. But paradoxically, if we had an unusually lower than expected turnout, it actually goes to three-point margin. That’s a small difference, just two points between the lowest turnout and highest turnout. I’m sticking with the five that captures our likely voters. Also, of that 7% that didn’t tell us who they’d vote for, when we look at how those people feel about Biden and feel about Trump, turns out they split equally between liking one and not the other and vice versa. The result is Biden goes up to 50 and Trump goes up to 45 if we allocate them but it still keeps the same five-point margin.

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile, has there been anything since you were in the field with this poll that you feel moves the needle for either candidate at this point?

Charles Franklin:

All year we’ve been looking at major events that haven’t moved the needle much. I don’t think we’re at a stage where something, a last-second surprise could really shift things. I think it’s more a question of do voters who are thinking of crossing party lines stick with that or do they have second thoughts when push comes to shove? And then there’s the final thing about turnout. We’ve looked for high and low turnout. Is there an unequal surge in turnout on Election Day that we’ve not captured? Those are the things that could still shift the results.

Frederica Freyberg:

Now, let’s take a look at early voters. In your poll, 64% of those early voters go to Biden, 25% to Trump. These numbers are obviously lopsided, but not the end of the story because, again, in-person voting.

Charles Franklin:

And in-person voters are going 35 for Biden, 56 for Trump. A little bit narrower. The other thing is the early vote has gotten a bit tighter over time. In the summer, far more Democrats expected to vote early. But as we’ve gone through the fall, more Republicans have in fact voted early. More Democrats have shifted to voting either in person on election day or maybe early in person. As a result, that margin has narrowed a little bit from a month ago when it was over 70% going for Biden in the early vote.

Frederica Freyberg:

I want to jump to Trump’s handling of coronavirus. You show that 58% of your respondents disapprove of that, 40% approve. This has slipped as the cases have surged. This is especially acute in Wisconsin.

Charles Franklin:

Yes, it is. The cases have been rising for two months. This is now Trump’s lowest net approval on his handling of the virus since March, when he was net positive at 51% approval. It’s been going down ever since. And this is now his weakest area of approval, slightly worse than his handling of protests, worse than his overall and a lot worse than his overall — than his economic approval.

Frederica Freyberg:

Yeah. And we should point out that he still does well on that economic approval, but we need to leave it there. Charles Franklin, thanks very much.

Charles Franklin:

Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:

Amid the crush of absentee ballots in Wisconsin, the U.S. Supreme Court this week ruled election clerks across the state must only count those ballots that arrive by November 3, Election Day. Democrats wanted to extend the time ballots could be counted if they were postmarked by Election Day, citing the sheer number of ballots and slow mail delivery. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reports of the nearly 1.9 million absentee ballots requested, some 223,000 have not yet been returned. The only sure way to return them now, four days before election day, is to put them in official drop boxes or you can hand-deliver them to your municipal clerk’s office. You can take your absentee ballot to your regular polling place on Election Day, but that method is not allowed in all areas around the state. Go to the Wisconsin Elections Commission website to see if your locality allows polling place drop off. That’s at elections.wi.gov. Voters cannot vote in person if they have already mailed in their completed absentee ballot. The Elections Commission says when in doubt, follow the directions that came with your absentee ballot.

A recent report said Wisconsin is at high risk for increased militia activity on or near Election Day. And given Wisconsin’s connection to the alleged plot on the part of an extremist group to kidnap the Michigan governor, we asked State Attorney General Josh Kaul about preparations. Thank you very much for joining us.

Josh Kaul:

Thanks for having me.

Frederica Freyberg:

What can you tell us about whether you know of threats on the part of militia groups or any others to disrupt polling on Election Day in our state?

Josh Kaul:

We don’t have information about specific threats, and I believe that Wisconsinites can be very confident that they’re going to be safe when they show up at the polls to vote. All lawfully-cast ballots will be counted and the results will reflect the will of the voters. But we’re also taking steps to prepare so if an issue does arise, there can be a swift law enforcement response and we can avoid disrupting the voting process.

Frederica Freyberg:

How seriously is this being taken, though, at all levels?

Josh Kaul:

I think that the amount of attention that this is getting is probably unprecedented, certainly in recent memory. The president has made statements indicating that he’s concerned about voter fraud, which in fact is extraordinarily rare and he’s encouraged his supporters to go to the polls and look around. While we have fair and transparent elections in Wisconsin and people can go to the polls and be observers, it’s critical that people who are doing that are in fact observing and not crossing the line by making themselves participants in the process and interfering where they’re disrupting voting.

Frederica Freyberg:

And so election watchers and poll observers are allowed at Wisconsin polling places, but what’s not allowed on the part of those people?

Josh Kaul:

Well, our election inspectors who work at polling places have a lot of authority to maintain order in the voting process. And if there is disruption or interference with the process, they can remove individuals from polling places and they can even contact law enforcement and ask them to remove those individuals. In addition, any effort to use force or to threaten to use force to prevent somebody from voting or to put something in a state of duress to prevent them from voting, that’s voter intimidation. It’s a felony in Wisconsin. Anybody who engages in that kind of conduct should be prepared to be investigated and ultimately to spend time behind bars. If anybody who’s a voter has concerns that they are observing voter intimidation or that they’re subject to it themselves, I encourage them first to contact the election workers who are at the polling place where it’s happening and also to contact local law enforcement.

Frederica Freyberg:

The full interview with Attorney General Kaul can be seen online at PBSwisconsin.org and then click on the news tab.

In other news, the conservative majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court has agreed to fast-track a lawsuit trying to eliminate Governor Tony Evers’ mask mandate. The lawsuit is the latest challenge by Republicans to limit Governor Evers’ ability to manage the coronavirus outbreak in Wisconsin.

Green Bay has been hard hit with COVID. That’s where thousands of people gathered, only some wearing masks, at a Donald Trump rally this afternoon. Joe Biden, seen here live in Milwaukee, set up a socially distanced space. He’s speaking right now in a hangar at Mitchell Field to a couple dozen supporters.

That outbreak has been building all year long and “Here & Now” Senior Political Reporter Zac Schultz tells us how the COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically altered the state of the presidential race in Wisconsin.

[cheers and applause]

P.A. Announcer:

The President of the United States, Donald J. Trump.

Zac Schultz:

On January 14th, Donald Trump held a rally in downtown Milwaukee. Both Republicans and Democrats assumed it would be the first of many presidential candidate visits.

Ben Wikler:

Number one, Wisconsin is the battleground state that could tip the entire presidential race one way or the other.

Andrew Hitt:

So I think everybody sort of realizes that the road to the White House runs through Wisconsin.

Zac Schultz:

On that night, Donald Trump laid out his case for reelection, with a statement that would be completely up-ended over the next nine months.

Donald Trump:

As we begin the year, our economy is booming, wages are rising, poverty is plummeting, crime is falling and America is the envy of the entire world.

[cheers and applause]

Zac Schultz:

Most of the people in the audience were likely unaware the World Health Organization held a briefing that very day on the novel coronavirus that had been discovered in China saying, “from the information we have, it is possible there is limited human-to-human transmission.” The first case appeared in Wisconsin three weeks later on February 5th. That was the first time the COVID-19 pandemic completely changed the presidential election in Wisconsin. As cases began to rise, Governor Tony Evers declared a health emergency.

Tony Evers:

And that all steps are being taken to stop the spread of this virus.

Zac Schultz:

Instead of a heated Democratic presidential primary, we never saw a candidate in Wisconsin. And Joe Biden’s win on April 7 was an afterthought.

Mike Pence:

Anybody else here for four more years for President Donald Trump in the White House?

[cheers and applause]

Zac Schultz:

By the middle of June, Wisconsin’s seven-day average was at 304 new cases a day and Mike Pence came to Pewaukee promoting Trump’s message that states should be opening up their economies.

Mike Pence:

Some 40 states just like Wisconsin are opening up again.

Zac Schultz:

But the race in Wisconsin was about to receive its second major COVID shock as Joe Biden’s team announced the Democratic National Convention would be going virtual and all the plans about using the convention to energize Wisconsin’s Democrats were lost.

Joe Biden:

I accept this nomination for President of the United States of America.

Zac Schultz:

While Joe Biden accepted the nomination from Delaware, Donald Trump tried to take advantage of his absence, holding a rally in Oshkosh.

Donald Trump:

This is the most important election we’ve ever had, in my opinion.

Zac Schultz:

While Wisconsin hit an average of 720 new cases per day, he started making promises about a vaccine.

Donald Trump:

Three vaccines are in the final stages of clinical trials and we’re mass producing doses already of that vaccine because we think it works and we’re going to have it out very quickly. We will defeat the China virus.

Zac Schultz:

By September it looked like Trump’s handling of COVID-19 might be replaced as the most important issue in the race. The shooting of Jacob Blake by police in Kenosha and the subsequent protests and violence coincided with a momentary lull in Wisconsin’s daily caseload. But even when Donald Trump and Joe Biden visited Kenosha, their approach to the virus was apparent.

Donald Trump:

If you more comfortable, you’ll say a couple of words, you might want to take the masks off. Otherwise you can leave them on. Either way you want. Look how fast you took that off.

Joe Biden:

The words of a president matter. No matter the good, bad or indifferent, they matter.

Zac Schultz:

September almost felt like a normal presidential year, with both candidates traveling the state. But COVID-19 cases were rising fast, with more than 2,000 new cases confirmed on the 17th, when Donald Trump flew into Central Wisconsin Airport.

Donald Trump:

We’re doing a great job relative to other countries on the coronavirus.

Zac Schultz:

A week later Joe Biden was in Manitowoc as the nation reached 200,000 dead from the coronavirus.

Joe Biden:

What worries me now is we’ve been living with this pandemic for so long I worry we’re risking becoming numb to the toll it has taken on us and our country.

Zac Schultz:

Then came the third big COVID shock, as Wisconsin’s average caseload hit 2400 a day, Donald Trump tested positive for COVID-19.

Donald Trump:

I’m going to Walter Reed hospital. I think I’m doing very well.

Zac Schultz:

Joe Biden’s campaign in Wisconsin went virtual. But two weeks later as Wisconsin’s average caseload hit 2700 a day, Mike Pence was back in front of a mostly unmasked crowd in Waukesha.

Mike Pence:

Through the power of American science and medicine, we will eradicate the China virus.

Zac Schultz:

Four days later, Donald Trump told an audience in Janesville he was now immune, and despite all evidence to the contrary, he implied the coronavirus was under control.

Donald Trump:

We’re rounding the corner. You’ll see it. We’re rounding the corner. And we have unbelievable–the vaccines are unbelievable.

Zac Schultz:

Experts agree a vaccine won’t be available until next year, but yet again, Trump promised it would be here soon.

Donald Trump:

But we have unbelievable vaccines. They’re coming out real soon. And the therapeutics are unbelievable and the cures — excuse me. I’m here.

[cheers and applause]

Zac Schultz:

Trump continued to blitz the state in the final week even as cases soared above 5,000 a day, proving that despite the pandemic, the presidential politics remain the same.

Donald Trump:

And you know what, we win Wisconsin, we win the whole ball game.

[cheers and applause]

Zac Schultz:

Reporting from Madison, I’m Zac Schultz for “Here & Now.”

Frederica Freyberg:

The CDC’s Dr. Anthony Fauci is now talking about a national mask mandate as COVID cases continue to surge. And Wisconsin is among the nation’s hot spots, today again posting more than 5,000 positive cases. For the latest on our situation we turn to chief medical officer for Wisconsin, Dr. Ryan Westergaard. Thanks very much for being here.

Ryan Westergaard:

Hi, it’s nice to be with you.

Frederica Freyberg:

So Wisconsin exceeded 5,000 cases twice this week, including as we said today. You said this week that we were in “a nightmare scenario.” What does that mean?

Ryan Westergaard:

The things that we’ve been most fearful of and most concerned about for the past six months or so is that when the respiratory virus season comes, which generally starts in October, November that this could really take off. And those were the reasons that we were very aggressively trying to do what we could to stop transmission, to make the epidemic as small, as mild as it could be over the summer. We failed to do that and we’re now seeing with the change in the weather and more people coming inside that the epidemic is actually accelerating and it’s doing so faster and earlier than we had feared. Thus translating to larger number of hospitalizations and cases every day like you mentioned and a larger number of deaths than we hoped to see at this point.

Frederica Freyberg:

You also say that you are surprised that we have failed to slow the spread. 10% of the population in Wisconsin has been infected so far. What happens if we continue to fail to slow the spread?

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, the very concerning thing about this novel coronavirus is that it’s novel, that the human population doesn’t have immunity to it in the same way that for seasonal influenza we do. What we’ve seen in small outbreaks in close settings is 70%, 80%, 90% of people can become infected with this virus if we don’t do things to stop it. So that could happen on a population level. We could be getting the large majority of people infected and that would translate to really high numbers of deaths. So we really need to not let that happen. We need to implement a plan to reduce infections and try to get it to a manageable level so we can minimize the deaths.

Frederica Freyberg:

Because yourself and other public health officials say there is still time to reverse this trajectory, but how do we do that?

Ryan Westergaard:

Well, we know what it looks like and it feels like. And it’s not easy. We have to think back to March, where we in Wisconsin as much of the world was really shut down. The streets were largely empty. People were dramatically restricting their activity and their movements. It is very difficult, as everybody knows. But unfortunately that’s the playbook that we have. When you look at countries that have flattened the curve, that have largely eliminated transmission of this virus, that’s what it takes. So we really need to get back to that place where we are very aggressively limiting our interaction with other people.

Frederica Freyberg:

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has been holding these mega rallies repeatedly in Wisconsin, another today. If you look at those attending, they’re close together, most of them not wearing masks. Did these rallies contribute to the spread in these states?

Ryan Westergaard:

It’s likely that they do. Those conditions that you described, close together, not wearing masks, talking loudly, that’s the recipe for spreading this virus. We don’t know for certain. We have lost the ability to measure with a great deal of precision where and how big these clusters are because the cases have gotten so large. So our local public health workforce that tries to track outbreaks and clusters, right now they can’t keep up. So we’re in an environment where the virus is everywhere. We don’t have the information we need to know exactly who is at risk and when. And that makes these types of gatherings even more dangerous.

Frederica Freyberg:

Does the message remain wear masks, wash hands, distance and now stay home?

Ryan Westergaard:

Yes. Those are the tools that we have. And I think what you mentioned, the distancing and the staying home, where we’re at right now we need to think about those in more aggressive terms than we have in the past if we’re going to make a difference.

Frederica Freyberg:

All right. We need to leave it there. Thanks very much, Dr. Ryan Westergaard.

Ryan Westergaard:

Thanks.

Frederica Freyberg:

Next, we head to a place in Wisconsin seeing the highest number of COVID cases as voters head into Election Day. The 2020 elections are turning out all kinds of new voters. But Wisconsin’s Native Vote is seeing a tidal wave of enthusiasm like never before. Marisa Wojcik brings us this report from Indigenous voices across the state and work being done on the ground in Menominee County.

Liz Wanetan:

I believe ’cause the stakes are higher. I believe this, you know. I shouldn’t say I. We believe the stakes are higher.

Marisa Wojcik:

Throughout 2020, an energy has been building to turn out Wisconsin’s Native Vote.

John Teller:

We’ve created a statement. We’ve created an idea and a belief throughout the state with our engagement efforts this year.

Marisa Wojcik:

Regional organizers across the state have been working overtime to get their message out. Organizers like John Teller of the Menominee Indian Tribe of Wisconsin.

John Teller:

In 2016 Menominee County ranked last in the state in voter turnout, with about 48%. If we can get over 50%. I mean my goal is 60%, 70%, 80%.

Marisa Wojcik:

John’s team packed and distributed hundreds of care packages with voting information, hand sanitizer and masks. Organizers have had to get creative with their engagement efforts.

Dee Sweet:

Whether it’s billboard campaigns, car parades throughout the communities, there’s a real excitement and a real sort of innovative atmosphere. We’ll try anything to get the world out.

Marisa Wojcik:

Political activists like Paul DeMain who’ve been deeply involved in state, local and tribal politics for decades says there’s something different about this election season. And turning out new voters could be enough to swing an election.

Paul DeMain:

The 2020 election cycle has been a cycle where I have never seen as much energy on both the local, the regional and national level to turn out the Indigenous vote.

Marisa Wojcik:

In his experience, Indigenous voters in the Great Lakes area tend to be more associated with the Democratic Party. But there are plenty of Republican, independent and third-party voters.

Paul DeMain:

I don’t care if you go in and vote for the person I’m not going to vote for. I really care that you go and exercise that vote so that we can tell people that this community cares. This community is involved. This community is going to make its voice known.

Dee Sweet:

I think the more we have become more visible.

Marisa Wojcik:

Dee Sweet organizes the statewide campaign for the Wisconsin Native Vote.

Dee Sweet:

Constituency in the state. We’re seeing that more and more legislators, people who are running for office or people who are incumbents are reaching out to tribal communities.

Marisa Wojcik:

The interests of Native voices are as diverse as any other community, but there are some things that unify this voting bloc.

Dee Sweet:

We have a responsibility as Native people to the land and to the air and to the water and to be protectors. But on the other hand, we also have a vested interest in our language preservation, in maintaining the social systems that are traditional for us, our cultural practices, our unique histories that are very different from one another. So that pledge to remember our obligations, to sort of pay homage to our elders and to the veterans and to also understand that we have a very heart-felt responsibility for the seventh generation.

Liz Wanetan:

You’re not just casting your vote thinking about what’s happening in present day. You’re thinking about what’s happening in that seventh generation that isn’t even here yet. Rightfully, if they truly are thinking of Native people, they know. They know that story and they know that seventh person that may be coming and how important that is. Missing and murdered Indigenous women. Like you said, water rights, you know, sovereignty. Those things need to be respected when you cast that vote. You make sure that that person has those same thoughts or at least willing to listen, willing to have that openness to listen to the Native voice.

Marisa Wojcik:

A recent and rapid surge in COVID-19 cases has challenged organizers trying to safely reach voters. Menominee County has the state’s highest case rate and is primarily made up of Tribal members. Despite this, the Menominee Tribal health officer says voting in person on Election Day can be done safely.

Amy Slagle:

The incident command looked at the safety plans for the voting and we feel like it can be done in a safe, safe manner, with the usual things in place, with masking and distancing.

John Teller:

Despite the coronavirus this year, it’s been a very challenging year I think for everyone. Despite those obstacles, I get the sense that this year is going to be very enthusiastic.

Rose Skendore:

I mean, if there’s no other time in history, this is the time. You need to get out there and vote. You need to get out there and let them know we are still here. We are still important. And we will not go away.

Marisa Wojcik:

For “Here & Now,” I’m Marisa Wojcik in Menominee.

Frederica Freyberg:

For continued coverage on the COVID crisis in Wisconsin, go to PBSwisconsin.org and then click on the news tab.

After that click over to WisconsinVote.org for information on voting, candidates and election returns.

That’s our program for tonight. Have a great weekend.

Announcer:

For more “Here & Now” 2020 election coverage, go to PBSwisconsin.org and click on news.

Funding for “Here & Now” is provided by the Focus Fund for Journalism and Friends of PBS Wisconsin.