Here & Now

Here & Now for Oct. 19, 2018

Announcer:
The following program is part of our “Here & Now” 2018 Wisconsin Vote election coverage.

Frederica Freyberg:
I’m Frederica Freyberg. Tonight on “Here & Now,” a first look at a boot camp that trains women to run for office. The latest on ballot security in Wisconsin. And we forecast the political homestretch to election day with McCoshen and Ross. It’s “Here & Now” for October 19.

Announcer:
Funding for “Here & Now” is provided, in part, by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.

Frederica Freyberg:
A first look tonight at what people are calling the year of the woman in U.S. politics, but it’s not just an uptick in the number of women running at the federal level. The National Conference of State Legislatures reports the number of women running for state legislative seats is up 28% compared to 2016. Two-thirds of them are Democrats. Wisconsin is right in there with 62 women running for legislature. 50 of those are Democrats. “Here & Now” reporter Zac Schultz met up with some candidates in Wisconsin to find out what’s driving their run.

Alexandra Nugent:
Drink some more water sweeties. It’s so hot.

Zac Schultz:
When Alexandra Nugent and Emily Siegrist meet for playdates at the park, their conversations might sound a little different from the other parents.

Alexandra Nugent:
Did you do your 35 doors yesterday?

Emily Siegrist:
I think I hit 25.

Alexandra Nugent:
25?

Zac Schultz:
That’s because in between the park and the picnic.

Alexandra Nugent:
I have cookie on my arm. This is great.

Zac Schultz:
This is also a campaign strategy session.

Emily Siegrist:
I don’t know if I should order more yard signs.

Alexandra Nugent:
Wait till they’re gone, I would say.

Emily Siegrist:
And then order some?

Alexandra Nugent:
Yeah.

Zac Schultz:
Alexandra and Emily met in 2017 at a town hall for the Republican Congressman Glenn Grothman.

Emily Siegrist:
He had a town hall meeting in Sheboygan.

Zac Schultz:
They were among the hundreds of voters who showed up concerned about plans to overturn the Affordable Care Act.

Alexandra Nugent:
And we were both in the overflow area and just kind of kept nodding and then looking over at each other.

Emily Siegrist:
And that kind of stemmed our relationship of we should get together sometime.

Zac Schultz:
They kept meeting and kept talking politics. Then Emily heard about a program called Emerge, which trains progressive women to run for office.

Emily Siegrist:
You want to get more active, you should check out this program.

Alexandra Nugent:
I didn’t even know about Emerge, but Emily looked it up and saw it and then told me to apply with her.

Emily Siegrist:
Hi, we’re here. We’re ready to do this.

Zac Schultz:
On a beautiful summer day, Emily and Alexandra joined 23 other women in a windowless room to learn about campaigning for office.

Woman Trainer:
So this is an experience. This is behavior change. This is how do you get more people to hear you.

Zac Schultz:
A few months later, their names would be on the ballot. Emily Siegrist for the Wisconsin State Assembly.

Man Announcer:
My friend, Emily Siegrist.

[cheers and applause]

Zac Schultz:
And Alexandra Nugent for Town of Sheboygan Board of Supervisors.

Alexandra Nugent:
Well, thank you all so much for being here tonight.

Zac Schultz:
But this wasn’t the culmination of a lifelong goal for either Emily or Alexandra.

Emily Siegrist:
You see, I’ve never been particularly politically active before.

Zac Schultz:
In 2016, they were both mothers to young children, working and living a normal life.

Emily Siegrist:
And then the 2016 presidential election had happened. Yes.

Judy Woodruff:
The Associated Press is calling Wisconsin, so that puts him over the top.

Emily Siegrist:
I remember the day after he won.

Zac Schultz:
Emily’s biological mother emigrated from Mexico.

Emily Siegrist:
I can’t believe we elected an individual who doesn’t want me in this country and besides my children as well. Realized ok, what are you going to do about it?

Male Announcer:
The president-elect of the United States.

Alexandra Nugent:
The day of the inauguration I was just mad and fed up and I just wanted to burn the world down and rebuild it in the image of a powerful woman.

Zac Schultz:
They weren’t alone.

Erin Forrest:
It hurts.

Zac Schultz:
Erin Forrest is the executive director of Emerge Wisconsin. She says the election activated a lot of women politically.

Erin Forrest:
We had more applications come in in the next two weeks than we had in the previous month and a half of applications being open. It just went through the roof.

Zac Schultz:
Emerge was created in California in 2002 and has expanded to 25 states. It came to Wisconsin in 2007. The focus is on getting more women into public office.

Erin Forrest:
We win at the same rate as men. We’re just still only about 25% of the candidates.

Zac Schultz:
Forrest says there’s a political ambition gap between men and women.

Erin Forrest:
We’re more likely to need to be recruited. We’re less likely to hear that recruitment pitch as a recruitment pitch. We blow it off as like, oh, that’s someone trying to say something nice about me.

Zac Schultz:
Even at the Emerge training, some women weren’t sure they would run.

Chris Rahlf:
When I first signed up for Emerge, I didn’t know if I was going to run for office.

Zac Schultz:
Chris Rahlf decided to run for the State Assembly because no one had challenged the incumbent in her district in the last two elections.

Chris Rahlf:
I remember going in to vote in off year elections and there would only be one name in each office. That’s not exciting. That’s not democracy. You ought to have a choice.

Zac Schultz:
But some women knew exactly what they wanted. They just needed the training.

Rebecca Clarke:
When I ran in ’16, I didn’t know about anything. Has access to free, quality, public education.

Zac Schultz:
Rebecca Clarke made a late decision to run for the Assembly in 2016 and lost by 20 points.

Rebecca Clarke:
I’m sure a lot of people woke up the next day after the November election either in shock or depressed. And I woke up like, oh my gosh, we’re going to do this again, you know?

Erin Forrest:
Obviously, everybody’s here for not the exact same reason, but for the same reasons.

Zac Schultz:
Emerge gave these women training and technical advice.

Erin Forrest:
70% to 80% of your money will be spent in the last 30 days. Why? That’s when people care.

Zac Schultz:
But perhaps most important, Emerge gave them a support network.

Emily Siegrist:
The sisterhood is like amazing.

Chris Rahlf:
Having other people, especially other women that are going through the same thing that you go through, it’s just critical.

Zac Schultz:
There are Emerge alums all over Wisconsin running in races ranging from school board to Congress. Many of them are running against established incumbents in parts of the state where Democrats have not won in a long time.

Erin Forrest:
But for me it’s also important to have women running in places where maybe it’s harder for them to win.

Zac Schultz:
That’s the case with Alexandra, Rebecca, Chris and Emily.

Chris Rahlf:
It’s fairly conservative.

Zac Schultz:
They live on the eastern part of Wisconsin, along Lake Michigan, where Republicans often go unchallenged.

Emily Siegrist:
Someone needs to run against him, and here I am.

Zac Schultz:
Alexandra’s election was in the spring, because she ran for a seat on the Town of Sheboygan Board of Supervisors.

Woman:
All right. So final results. Dan Olsen got 585 votes. Alexandra Nugent, 806.

[cheers and applause]

Alexandra Nugent:
Yeah. It’s been really exciting. It’s everything I hoped for.

Zac Schultz:
Now she’s dealing with issues ranging from parks to drainage.

Alexandra Nugent:
As boring as drainage sounds, it’s a real issue to people. If your basement is flooding, you can’t really think about much else.

Zac Schultz:
Her win has resonated.

Rebecca Clarke:
It set the tone for me and I think probably some other Dems in the area. Like okay.

Emily Siegrist:
It kind of gives you this confidence.

Zac Schultz:
Polling has shown a surge in democratic enthusiasm to vote in this fall’s election.

Man at door:
Hello.

Emily Siegrist:
Hi. Hi. My name is Emily Siegrist and I am running for state Assembly in the 24th district and I’m just out knocking doors this afternoon.

Zac Schultz:
But first the voters need to know they’re in the race.

Emily Siegrist:
I just want to introduce myself.

Man at door:
Never heard of you.

Emily Siegrist:
That’s why I’m knocking doors so you can get to meet me.

Emily Siegrist:
It’s just all about doors and making that connection with people and saying there is another option out there.

Chris Rahlf:
I’m Chris Rahlf and I’m running for State Assembly. We can actually go out and knock doors that probably haven’t seen a Democratic candidate in more than ten years.

Rebecca Clarke:
I’m Rebecca Clarke. I’m running…

Man in driveway:
You are.

Rebecca Clarke:
I are.

Man in driveway:
And you are definitely not a Republican.

Rebecca Clarke:
No. All right, sir.

Zac Schultz:
But Democratic voters alone aren’t enough.

Emily Siegrist:
I’m not hitting strong Democrats. My universe is maybe lean Dems, independents, unknowns and lean Republicans. So that’s the persuadable universe we’re dealing with.

Rebecca Clarke:
We do have folks that will vote for Scott Walker, but they would vote for me.

Chris Rahlf:
I can’t run against Donald Trump. I can’t run against Scott Walker. I have to run as somebody that’s really going to represent the people of this district.

Zac Schultz:
Sometimes the person behind the door is perfectly satisfied with the way things are going.

Rebecca Clarke:
I’m running for State Assembly here in our district.

Woman at door:
As a Democrat?

Rebecca Clarke:
Yeah.

Woman at door:
Can’t handle that one.

Rebecca Clarke:
Really?

Emily Siegrist:
There might be a handful. There might be.

Man at door:
No.

Emily Siegrist:
Okay. All right. Well, have a good day. Those are hard doors.

Zac Schultz:
That’s when the Emerge sisterhood kicks in.

Chris Rahlf:
There’s also a lot of emotional support, because it is a very stressful process.

Emily Siegrist:
If you had a rough door and you’re just like you just need to vent, having someone there that you can call.

Chris Rahlf:
And I honestly think I would have really struggled trying to do this on my own.

Zac Schultz:
Nationally, there are a record number of women running for office, but their qualifications extend beyond their gender.

Chris Rahlf:
I don’t know of any of my Emerge sisters that say I’m going to run because I’m a woman. I think what’s happened now is women feel more empowered to run.

Rebecca Clarke:
I think other women are looking at this. You can have two kids and a job. You can do this.

Alexandra Nugent:
My end goal wasn’t to run for office. My end goal was to become elected.

Zac Schultz:
Emily and Alexandra felt their lives change on election day 2016. And they don’t expect to go back to the way things were.

Alexandra Nugent:
Are you registered to vote?

Woman on playground:
Yes.

Alexandra Nugent:
Okay. Good. I always ask people now. It’s like a weird question, but it’s one of the first things I ask people these days.

Zac Schultz:
Alexandra is already in office. Emily hopes to join her on election day 2018. Their children are used to seeing their names on yard signs.

Emily Siegrist:
It will be weird when we’re driving and she’s like, “Mommy, there’s your sign.”

Zac Schultz:
And sitting down for interviews.

Alexandra Nugent:
This is real life. This is being a politician with a baby.

Zac Schultz:
This is their new normal.

Alexandra Nugent:
She’s telling me she’s done right now. This is the done sign. But we’re just getting started Ruby.

Frederica Freyberg:
That was Zac Schultz reporting. Wisconsin Public Television asked the Republican Party of Wisconsin to allow us to follow some of their female candidates for office and we got no response. We also asked for a statement about their effort to get Republican women to run for office. We got that. It reads, in part, “The Republican Party of Wisconsin is working to elect two of the toughest conservative fighters running statewide this fall. Rebecca Kleefisch and Leah Vukmir. As strong Republican leaders, Kleefisch and Vukmir have been at the center of crucial reforms that cut taxes for families, balanced our state’s budget and put more money into our classrooms.”
We move now from the campaign trail to the voting booth. In tonight’s closer look, election security and computer hacking. In Wisconsin, voting machines are not connected to the internet. And each vote is backed by a paper ballot to verify results. Officials here say this setup as well as other safeguards provide a secure election outcome. However last summer the Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism determined that Russian hackers had breached the websites of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, the state Department of Workforce Development and as well as municipal websites, including Ashland, Bayfield and Washburn counties. Elections in Wisconsin are administered by just under 2,000 municipal clerks as well as 72 county clerks work under the oversight of the state Elections Commission. Heading into the November 6th election day, how vulnerable is our ballot box? We take that question to Alex Halderman, director of the University of Michigan’s Center for Computer Security and Society who joins us from Ann Arbor and thanks very much for doing so.

Alex Halderman:
Great to be here.

Frederica Freyberg:
Well, now given the assurances as just laid out from our Elections Commissions about the security of Wisconsin’s system, what in your belief might be specific threats or risks in this state?

Alex Halderman:
Well, Wisconsin is doing better than some states, but it still has work to do. The problem is even though you have optical scan paper ballots in much of the state, the optical scan machines are still computers. They have potentially vulnerable hardware and software and in many cases that hardware and software is out-of-date. So it’s still possible that an attacker could find a way to spread malicious code to the machines and even change votes.

Frederica Freyberg:
And so not to give anybody any ideas, but how would a malicious hacker go about getting access to these optical scanners?

Alex Halderman:
Well, even though the voting machines aren’t plugged into the internet directly, they still have to be programmed before every election with the design of the ballot, the races and candidates. And the municipalities or outside vendors create that programming on normal computer work stations before copying it to the machines. If an attacker can access those election programming systems, they can potentially spread malicious vote-stealing code to all the voting machines across a whole region. The question is how well-protected are those machines?

Frederica Freyberg:
And do you have any understanding as to how well-protected those machines are?

Alex Halderman:
Well, officials take steps to try to isolate them, but unfortunately for the kinds of attackers that we’re most worried about, hostile nation states, there are many ways to bridge the gap into machines that are normally considered locked down. That remains a threat. It’s also a threat that outside vendors that program ballots for municipalities across many states create a kind of centralized threat that would be very attractive for attackers.

Frederica Freyberg:
Are there Russians still out there working to destabilize our elections, even in Wisconsin?

Alex Halderman:
According to intelligence reports, the Russians are still at it, as are potentially other hostile nation states. What we’ve learned from 2016 and the investigations that followed is that the Russians had the capability to do a lot more damage than they did. And I’m afraid that in 2018, because we haven’t made enough progress as a nation, there’s still a lot of damage they could do.

Frederica Freyberg:
Now, Wisconsin recently, this fall, announced that it will do post-election audits on 5% of the results. And that is something that election security experts were saying was necessary. So what’s your response to Wisconsin moving in that direction?

Alex Halderman:
Well, 5% post-election audits, that’s a really important step forward for Wisconsin, because a post-election audit means basically you’re going to look at some random sample of the paper to confirm that the computer results are correct. And that’s a way to detect and potentially recover from vote-tampering attacks. Unfortunately, if you’re just auditing 5% of voting jurisdictions, the way that Wisconsin is planning to, that’s not necessarily going to be enough auditing to catch fraud in a close election. It may just be too small a sample.

Frederica Freyberg:
What about the factor of human error? Is that a concern?

Alex Halderman:
Human error is always a concern in cybersecurity. Unfortunately, it’s very hard to make sure people are always going to follow the designated precautions and processes exactly. On the other hand, in elections we also have to consider error by voters, just filling out their ballots incorrectly. Which if done on a wide enough scale can cast some doubt on the integrity of the election result, too. We have to be able to separate error by people, error by machines and error caused by an attacker.

Frederica Freyberg:
Just very briefly, on Wisconsin, how would you rate or rank or grade its election integrity?

Alex Halderman:
I think Wisconsin is doing quite a bit better than average, because Wisconsin now has paper ballots across the state and they have an audit for races that are not very close is going to be sufficient to detect fraud. Wisconsin can improve by implementing what are called risk-limiting audits, audits designed to catch error and fraud with very high probability even in the closest elections. That would be the next step and probably the most important step left for Wisconsin to take to make sure that all voters can feel safe.

Frederica Freyberg:
All right. Alex Halderman out of Ann Arbor, thanks very much for joining us.

Alex Halderman:
Thank you.

Frederica Freyberg:
Earlier we mentioned Russian hackers had breached Wisconsin’s websites, including the state Democratic Party. The state Elections Commission said access was not gained. Instead, it was the equivalent of rattling door knobs to see if they were unlocked. We asked Reid Magney of the state Elections Commission for his response to Professor Halderman’s thoughts on Wisconsin implementing so-called risk-limiting audits. Magney said, “Risk limiting audits recount a random sample of all ballots. They work best in states that have uniform, centralized voting systems and ballots like Colorado. Wisconsin sent a team to Denver this summer to observe their audits. We learned that implementing them here would require new legislation, fundamental changes to the way we conduct elections and millions of dollars for new voting equipment statewide. The expanded 5% audit approved by the WEC for November will hand recount every ballot in randomly-selected wards, representing every county and voting system in the state. In a close race the loser can request a recount to confirm or overturn the result. Any discrepancy would trigger further investigation.”
With less than two and a half weeks until election day, the campaign is definitely heating up in Wisconsin. Next week, Donald Trump visits the state to rally for Scott Walker and Leah Vukmir. Bernie Sanders also heads to Wisconsin for Tony Evers and Tammy Baldwin. And the ad wars kick into overdrive. In tonight’s closer look, a visit with our favorite partisan commentators. Liberal Scot Ross of One Wisconsin Now and Conservative Bill McCoshen of Capitol Consultants. Thanks very much for being here.

Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross:
Thanks.

Frederica Freyberg:
First out of the chutes here, plagiarism. The Walker campaign found that Tony Evers had plagiarized passages in his DPI budget. Is this a big deal?

Bill McCoshen:
Could be. Depends on how the Walker team uses it. I mean you got the head of the — the superintendent of public instruction, his staff gets caught copying someone else’s work and not citing it. And then worse than that, I think compounding the problem for Tony Evers, is he said there will be no consequences for those staff. That’s like telling a kid it’s okay to cheat on your homework. There will be no consequences if you get caught. So I think the setup of that really depends on how the Walker team uses it today, tomorrow. Do they put it into an ad? If they don’t, it probably goes away in a couple days.

Scot Ross:
Walker’s had 29 ads. They’ve pelted Tony with accusations of pornography, that sort of thing. It hasn’t moved the needle. I don’t think this is going to matter. When you’ve got basically the last two weeks of this campaign and Trump coming here. You on one side have to motivate your troop’s racism, sexism and some might say fascism versus plagiarism. I will take the left-hand column to motivate the base.

Frederica Freyberg:
Speaking of Trump coming, does that help Scott Walker and Leah Vukmir?

Bill McCoshen:
I think it does. Midterms are generally based on base. That’s why Bernie Sanders is coming for turn out, not only for Tammy Baldwin but Randy Bryce and others. It’s why Donald Trump is coming for Leah Vukmir and Scott Walker. I would have recommended they put him in Green Bay. Looks like they’re going to put him in Wausau. That’s probably the second best market, at least in my opinion, to put him in. It’s Trump country for sure and it reminds people they have a big, big election less than 16 days from now.

Scot Ross:
Democrats have lost off-year elections for the last 30 years basically if you’re name isn’t Jim Doyle, because our base doesn’t show up in these off-year elections. Trump is nothing more than absolute — an absolute catalyst to make the democratic base show up. And bringing him to Wisconsin could not be a bigger gift. Can you — let’s — Green Bay? Let’s go to Milwaukee and Madison. Bring Trump wherever because again Democrats lose these elections because their base doesn’t show up. The older, whiter, maler Republican base is already going to come to the polls.

Frederica Freyberg:
It was reported this week that the White House discouraged the president from visiting Wisconsin as a waste of time, it was reported, because Scott Walker was going to lose. Does internal polling there really show that?

Bill McCoshen:
I don’t think so. I think it’s a dead heat either way. It’s one or two points in favor of Evers or Walker. It’s hard to tell. Their internal polls say the same thing. The Charles Franklin Marquette poll says the same thing. So this is a coin toss at this point with 16 days to go. A little tip of the scale could be significant.

Scot Ross:
We’re definitely — I’m going to definitely agree with Bill. We are in the midst of a one/two-point race at best right now. And this is about the last two weeks, basically. And right now, we’ve seen, you know, there is enthusiasm. Right now, we’ve had about 110,000 early votes cast. That’s down from 2016 when it was 160,000. But that’s still a massive number. Presidential race. So I would say this. Walker bringing — you don’t see Walker talking about, hey, I’m great. I’m glad that Trump’s coming here because it would be ridiculous for him to do it because Trump is so toxic. The only good news coming out of the fact that Donald Trump is coming here for Scott Walker is the fact that they’re doing it at the Mosinee airport so as we know, Scott Walker knows where the airports in Wisconsin are.

Bill McCoshen:
As I think I said before, I would have had Trump in here earlier for sure, especially for the U.S. Senate race. With that being now double digits, at least on the public polls, that’s a big gap to close.

Frederica Freyberg:
Switching gears a little bit, do you believe that the Kavanaugh confirmation actually did energize the GOP?

Scot Ross:
Absolutely not. Listen, let’s be very clear. The pundits were saying, the Republican pundits before Kavanaugh said if Kavanaugh doesn’t get elected — or doesn’t get approved, it’s going to energize the Republican base. After Kavanaugh got approved, the pundits are saying it’s going to energize the Republican base. The fact is that the Republicans now control the Supreme Court. If you are starving, if you are the Democrats and you need food, you are going to be much more aggressive about getting that food and not being say on the other side that’s fat and happy and has the court where it’s wanting and in the future may need more food, so to speak.

Bill McCoshen:
Sadly, I’m going to have to agree with him on that. If you look at the September Marquette poll and the October Marquette poll, the enthusiasm gap was plus 11 for Democrats in September. It’s now plus five. So maybe there’s a little bit of an uptick for Republicans. They’ve closed the gap on the enthusiasm. But the Democrats still have it. So while some states, particularly U.S. Senate race, did enjoy sort of the Kavanaugh bounce or a Kavanaugh effect, we haven’t seen that here.

Frederica Freyberg:
What should we be looking for in the next two weeks?

Scot Ross:
I’d say a couple things. One is, again, how does the Evers and how do the Democrats play the fact that Scott Walker — er, that Donald Trump is coming here for Scott Walker and Leah and Brad Schimel. Second is what are the Democrats going to do to motivate the movements that have arisen out of Trump being president? Black lives matter, the moms demand action, you know, the don’t separate families and then the women’s march. Those are the reasons why — those people’s enthusiasm over the last two years is the reason we think there’s going to be a wave.

Bill McCoshen:
For Scott Walker, he’s going to keep it on the issues. If this election is a referendum on issues and the direction this state is heading, Scott Walker wins. If it’s a referendum on him personally, he’s in dangerous territory.

Frederica Freyberg:
Bill McCoshen, Scot Ross. Thanks very much. Next week I will be joined by WPR’s Shawn Johnson and Laurel White for a deep dive on the issues and positions in the race for governor. That’s next Friday night. Stay tuned now for the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association Governor’s Debate. It’s coming up in three minutes. I’m Frederica Freyberg. Have a great weekend.

Announcer:
Funding for “Here & Now” is provided, in part, by Friends of Wisconsin Public Television.
For more information on “Here & Now’s” 2018 election coverage, go to WisconsinVote.org